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格陵兰冰盖的表面融化通过物质平衡影响全球海平面上升,同时也是气候变化的灵敏指示器。本文基于增强分辨率的被动微波日亮温数据,使用自动气象站的气温记录,评估了进行冰盖表面融化探测的改进的亮温日较差(Advanced Diurnal Amplitude Variations,ADAV)方法和另外4种常用方法(M+30 K、ALA、MEMLS1和MEMLS2)的探测效果,通过总体精度和Kappa系数证实了ADAV方法探测冰盖表面融化的可行性与可靠性。在此基础上,基于ADAV方法进一步分析格陵兰冰盖表面融化的时空变化特征,发现1996—2021年格陵兰冰盖所有区域都发生过表面融化,融化最剧烈的区域分布于冰盖边缘,南部较北部融化范围更大、融化天数更多。极端融化事件导致冰盖融化范围波动较大,而融化指数呈现增长趋势,增长速率为5.24×105 d·km2·a-1。且表面融化具有向内陆高海拔地区扩张的趋势,融化天数为11～30 d、31～50 d、51～70 d的区域,26年间的平均高程都发生了显著的增长,增长速率分别为13.06 m·a... 相似文献
2.
基于MODIS温度产品,着重分析了2000-2020年格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度和表面融化范围的年际变化趋势;联合IMBIE(冰盖物质平衡对比实验)数据分析表面温度对于冰盖物质平衡的影响;进一步讨论了大气环流对于格陵兰冰盖表面温度变化的影响。结果表明:格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度和融化范围趋势较为一致,2000年初期呈现出显著的上升趋势,2012年达到峰值,随后波动下降;整个研究阶段北部区域是增温速率最大的区域,高于其他任何区域两倍,东南部和西南部是温度最高的区域却具有最小的增长率;格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度、融化范围以及物质平衡之间都具有显著的相关性,同时格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度每上升1℃,会导致其物质损失增加74.29Gt·a;最后,经过对北大西洋涛动(NAO)和格陵兰阻塞指数(GBI)指数的分析得到,格陵兰冰盖夏季表面温度受到GBI的影响要强于NAO的影响,冰盖夏季表面温度和NAO呈现出负相关(r=-0.64,P<0.05),和GBI呈现出正相关(r=0.77,P<0.05)。 相似文献
3.
海平面的变化往往对区域生态环境、社会经济造成严重影响.通过对全球相对海平面变化(relative sea level,简称RSL)记录的再分析结果,合成了近2 Ma BP以来的全球RSL变化记录,分析了合成RSL记录对原始RSL记录数理特征的继承性,并基于频谱、滤波等数理分析验证了合成RSL记录的合理性.在此基础上,讨论了合成RSL与大气CO2浓度、中高纬度海域表层海水温度(sea surface temperature,简称SST)、全球大洋底栖氧同位素(δ18OB)等参数指标间的相关性,结果显示:(1) 合成RSL不仅与原始RSL记录的变化趋势基本一致,继承了原始RSL记录对全球气候变化的响应特征,而且显示出合成RSL记录对地球轨道参数周期变化响应明显;(2) 近2 Ma BP以来,在冰期-间冰期旋回中,合成RSL与δ18OB变化呈良好的负相关,相关系数r平均值可以达到约0.81,高于合成RSL与大气CO2浓度及中高纬度海域SST变化的相关系数;(3) 在地球轨道参数周期上,合成RSL与极地冰盖体积(δ18OB)的变化几乎同时,在偏心率周期上,合成RSL落后于SST和大气CO2浓度变化;在斜率周期上,合成RSL落后于SST变化而领先于大气CO2浓度变化.推测这些变化的诱导因素可能是在太阳辐射量改变的前提下,大气CO2浓度及大洋SST变化对极地冰盖体积产生了差异影响,进而引起海平面发生变化. 相似文献
4.
海平面上升很可能是全球变暖的最重要的后果之一,即使不大的上升(小于50cm),也具有巨大的社会和经济影响,特别是对世界上离海面很近的人口稠密的地区影响更大。因此,预测海平面的区域变化是极端重要的。 随着气候变暖,人们担心海水水温上升,海水体积膨胀,进而还担心占陆冰绝大部分的南极和格陵兰冰盖的冰融化,引起海平面上升。英国潜艇1976年10月和1987年5月两次对格陵兰北部北极冰盖进 相似文献
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6.
南极冰盖对海平面影响巨大,高程变化测量是南极物质平衡监测的重要手段。采用欧空局CryoSat-2雷达高度计数据,通过提取卫星升降轨的地面交叉点,监测了南极内陆冰盖的高程变化（物质平衡）。结果表明,后向散射能量对Ku波段的CryoSat-2雷达高度计的高程数据具有一定的影响,经后向散射能量校正后,时间序列上的高程变化变得平缓,高程变化与已有的降雪数据相比,更加符合实际情况。2010年11月至2017年11月南极内陆冰盖高程变化趋势为（-1.1±0.2）cm·a-1。西南极的Kamb冰流高程变化率为（38.7±1.1）cm·a-1,Moeller冰流高程变化率为（-10.3±1.2）cm·a-1,部分Thwaites冰川区域高程变化率为（-13.4±1.8）cm·a-1,东南极的Wilkes Land出现高下降区,最高达-20 cm·a-1。Dronning Maud Land虽然出现变化异常的点,但整体并没有显著的高程变化。南极内陆冰盖质量变化为（-10.6±6.2）Gt·a-1,整体上南极内陆冰盖质量变化平缓,部分区域变化较大,Kamb冰流达到（17.9±0.5）Gt·a-1,Moeller冰流达到（-3.4±0.4）Gt·a-1,部分Thwaites冰川区达到（-3.7±0.5）Gt·a-1。 相似文献
7.
格陵兰冰盖表面消融研究进展 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
冰盖表面消融是格陵兰冰盖物质平衡的重要组成部分, 已成为近年来格陵兰冰盖研究的热点. 格陵兰冰盖表面消融研究的关键在于理解冰盖融水的产生、 运移和释放等水文过程, 需要解决如下关键科学问题: 1) 冰盖表面产生了多少融水;2)冰盖表面水文系统具有什么特征; 3)冰盖表面融水如何影响冰盖运动; 围绕这些科学问题, 总结了格陵兰冰盖表面消融的研究进展. 冰盖表面消融建模、 冰盖表面湖的信息提取与面积特征变化、 深度反演与体积量算等是目前研究冰盖表面融水量的主要途径, 冰盖表面湖、 冰盖表面径流、 锅穴与冰裂隙等表面水文要素的空间分布规律研究则可用于揭示冰盖表面水文系统特征, 冰盖表面融水与冰盖运动速率的关系、 表面融水进入冰盖内部与底部的水文过程是目前揭示表面融水如何影响冰盖运动的主要手段. 相似文献
8.
发生于白垩纪中期塞诺曼期—土伦期之交的大洋缺氧事件2（OAE2）被认为是研究大洋缺氧事件形成与其他地质过程异常的重要窗口。重建晚塞诺曼期OAE2事件发生之前的古海洋环境对于理解OAE2的成因机制至关重要。因而选择沉积速率快且有高分辨率年代标尺的西藏定日地区OAE2剖面事件层位之下冷青热组地层开展了详细的岩石磁学研究,旨在为重建研究区晚塞诺曼期古海洋环境演化提供新约束。对剖面-5.20 m 至30 m的地层以10 cm间隔采样352个,并测得这些样品的磁化率,重点对-5.20 m至0 m样品测量其非磁滞剩磁,饱和等温剩磁等岩石磁学参数。结合已有的0 m 至37.2 m的岩石磁学数据,获得了-5.20 m至37.2 m的完整的岩石磁学记录,并将其年龄限定为（95.58±0.15） Ma至（94.55±0.15） Ma。岩石磁学结果显示1）95.58~95.10 Ma期间磁性矿物含量增多,反映沉积区物源供给逐渐增多。这很可能是由于晚塞诺曼期全球海平面下降（KCe4）所导致,且（95.10±0.15） Ma时海平面下降至最低。2）磁性矿物种类变化反映定日地区古海洋环境在~94.7 Ma发生了较显著变化,从95.10~94.70 Ma期间亚氧化为主的环境逐渐演变为~94.7 Ma后趋于缺氧的海洋环境。这很可能是由于95.10 Ma海平面上升及相伴的低氧带（OMZ）扩张至研究区所致。研究限定的（95.10±0.15） Ma作为全球海平面上升的初始时间可为研究其他OAE2剖面海平面上升对OAE2形成的影响提供重要的年代约束。结合晚塞诺曼期活跃的火山活动,我们认为晚塞诺曼期全球性海平面上升和火山活动共同作用导致了OAE2事件的发生。 相似文献
9.
本文以政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）于2001年专门报告中关于21世纪内全球气候变化的温度和海平面变化的预估为前提。简要介绍了中国珊瑚礁的定位、类型和分布,对其进行了成熟度分类,评估了全球海平面变化对中国珊瑚礁的影响。据预测,21世纪我国各海域海平面上升以南海最大,为32 ~ 98cm,其平均上升速率为0.32 ~ 0.98cm/a。从海平面上升速率与珊瑚礁生长速率的理论对比分析,中国珊瑚礁基本上能与前者同步生长,即使海平面以预估高值上升,也不会威胁其生存。从中国珊瑚礁成熟度较高、其生长趋势以侧向生长为主的现实状况出发,未来全球海平面上升能为其创造向上生长的有利条件。从古地理学“将古论今”观点出发,自全新世6000aBP以来曾存在过的高海平面和较高表层海水温度的历史,也可以佐证,21世纪的全球海平面上升不会对中国珊瑚礁的存在和发育造成威胁。现存的珊瑚礁岛应对于全球海平面上升,可以做到“水涨岛高”,它们能够屹立于上升了的未来海平面之上;但对于岛上的人工建筑物则会被浸、被淹,或被淘蚀和破坏,因此必须根据海平面上升的幅度和速率,采取相应的防御措施。 相似文献
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二叠纪-三叠纪界线附近的全球海平面变化是当前沉积学研究的热点和难点问题,其与当时的显生宙最大规模生物灭绝事件存在一定关联,具有重要的研究意义。然而二叠纪-三叠纪界线附近的全球海平面变化存在较多争议,受单剖面或区域范围内相对海平面变化研究程度的制约,在缺乏从沉积学角度的综合对比研究的情况下,可能会影响对全球海平面变化过程与持续时间的判识。综述了二叠纪-三叠纪界线附近的海平面变化研究进展,整合了多位学者的研究剖面、主要观点及认识,梳理了全球海平面变化的主要观点（“上升论”和“下降-上升论”）,包括其各自的发展历程、代表剖面及海平面变化识别特征、海平面上升/下降的原因以及海平面变化与生物灭绝的关系等,并在此基础上,探讨了二叠纪-三叠纪全球海平面变化研究过程中产生争议的原因。本文旨在为二叠纪-三叠纪界线（PTB）附近海平面变化研究提供线索,同时为研究全球PTB地质事件发生的背景及差异性原因提供基础证据。 相似文献
11.
通过对我国大型水库蓄水的时空特征进行深入分析, 统计得到近60年来大型水库蓄水累积的库容量已达到697km3, 占全国所有水库库容量的83.3%及全球库容量的6.5%;而2000年以来的大型水库数量及蓄水量的变化有明显的加速, 库容量的变化率为16.7km3/a, 远高于1950年到2000年的4.9km3/a的增长率; 同时借助卫星重力(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)观测手段, 对2000年以后主要分布在长江流域以南地区的水库进行水储量估算, 结果显示GRACE仅能估算得到63%的水库变化量, 两者之间的差异可能反映了该地区地下水的长期变化. 结合大型水库的分布位置与库容量, 基于海平面变化方程计算得到了中国近海相对海平面的空间变化. 水库蓄水导致的渤海与东南沿海海域的相对海平面上升明显, 最大上升高度约为8mm; 而2000年以后的水库对海平面的影响主要集中在东南沿海, 其中南海海域较为突出, 上升高度约为2~3mm, 在此期间蓄水造成的近海不同验潮站位置的海平面增长速度在0.02~0.11mm/a之间变化. 相似文献
12.
We present relative sea level （RSL） curves in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment （GIA）predictions based on the melting scenarios of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM）given in previous works.Simultaneously,Holocene-age RSL observations obtained at the raised beaches along the coast of Antarctica are shown to be in agreement with the GIA predictions.The differences from previously published ice-loading models regarding the spatial distribution and total mass change of the melted ice are significant.These models were also derived from GIA modelling; the variations can be attributed to the lack of geological and geographical evidence regarding the history of crustal movement due to ice sheet evolution.Next,we summarise the previously published ice load models and demonstrate the RSL curves based on combinations of different ice and earth models.The RSL curves calculated by GIA models indicate that the model dependence of both the ice and earth models is significantly large at several sites where RSL observations were obtained.In particular,GIA predictions based on the thin lithospheric thickness show the spatial distributions that are dependent on the melted ice thickness at each sites.These characteristics result from the short-wavelength deformation of the Earth.However,our predictions strongly suggest that it is possible to find the average ice model despite the use of the different models of lithospheric thickness.By sea level and crustal movement observations,we can deduce the geometry of the post-LGM ice sheets in detail and remove the GIA contribution from the crustal deformation and gravity change observed by space geodetic techniques,such as GPS and GRACE,for the estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change associated with recent global warming. 相似文献
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W.R. Peltier 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(17-18):1658-1674
The budget of global sea level rise includes contributions from several distinct factors, including thermosteric effects, the wasting of small ice sheets and glaciers, and the loss of mass by the great polar ice sheets and by the continents due to desiccation. Since the former contribution may be estimated on the basis of both hydrographic survey data and more recently using Argo float data, the second may be estimated on the basis of mass balance measurements on existing ice-fields, and the latter on the basis of modern GRACE-based time dependent gravity field measurements, the inputs to the globally averaged rate of sea level rise may be directly constrained. Since GRACE also provides a measurement of the rate at which mass is being added to the oceans, we are now in a position to ask whether this rate of mass addition to the oceans matches the rate at which mass is being removed from the continents. As demonstrated herein, the mass component of the budget of global sea level is closed within the observational errors. When the mass-derived contribution is added to the thermosteric contribution it is furthermore shown that the inference of the net rate of global sea level rise by the altimetric satellites Topex/Poseidon and Jason 1 is also reconcilable over the GRACE era. It is noted those individual terms in the budget, especially the contribution from small ice sheets and glaciers, remains insufficiently accurate. It is demonstrated that the lingering influence of the Late Quaternary ice-age upon sea level is profound and that closure of the budget requires an accurate model of its impact. 相似文献
14.
Robin J. Edwards 《第四纪科学杂志》2001,16(3):221-235
A foraminiferal transfer function for mean tide level (MTL) is used in combination with AMS radiocarbon dated material to construct a record of relative sea‐level (RSL) change from Poole Harbour, southern Britain. These new data, based on multiple cores from duplicate sites, indicate four phases of change during the last 5000 cal. (calendar) yr: (i) rising RSL between ca. 4700 cal. yr BP and ca. 2400 cal. yr BP; (ii) stable to falling RSL from ca. 2400 cal. yr BP until ca. 1200 cal. yr BP; (iii) a brief rise in RSL from ca. 1200 cal. yr BP to ca. 900 cal. yr BP, followed by a period of stability; (iv) a recent increase in the rate of RSL rise from ca. 400–200 cal. yr BP until the present day. In addition, they suggest that the region has experienced long‐term crustal subsidence at a rate of 0.5 mm C14 yr?1. Although this can account for the overall rise in MTL observed during the past 2500 yr, it fails to explain the changes in the rate of rise during this period. This implies that the phases of RSL change recorded in the marshes of Poole Harbour reflect tidal range variations or ‘eustatic’ fluctuations in sea‐level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Diandong Ren Rong Fu David J. Karoly Lance M. Leslie Jianli Chen Clark R. Wilson 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2010,2(4):501-513
Accurate prediction of future sea level rise requires models that accurately reproduce and explain the recent observed dramatic ice sheet behaviours. This study presents a new multi-phase, multiple-rheology, scalable and extensible geofluid model of the Greenland ice sheet that shows the credential of successfully reproducing the mass loss rate derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the microwave remote sensed surface melt area over the past decade. Model simulated early 21st century surface ice flow compares satisfactorily with InSAR measurements. Accurate simulation of the three metrics simultaneously cannot be explained by fortunate model tuning and give us confidence in using this modelling system for projection of the future fate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Based on this fully adaptable three dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled prognostic ice model, we examined the flow sensitivity to granular basal sliding, and further identified that this leads to a positive feedback contributing to enhanced mass loss in a future warming climate. The rheological properties of ice depend sensitively on its temperature, thus we further verified modelâ?s temperature solver against in situ observations. Driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric parameters, the ice model simulated GrIS mass loss rate compares favourably with that derived from the GRACE measurements, or about ?147 km3/yr over the 2002–2008 period. Increase of the summer maximum melt area extent (SME) is indicative of expansion of the ablation zone. The modeled SME from year 1979 to 2006 compares well with the cross-polarized gradient ratio method (XPGR) observed melt area in terms of annual variabilities. A high correlation of 0.88 is found between the two time series. In the 30-year model simulation series, the surface melt exhibited large inter-annual and decadal variability, years 2002, 2005 and 2007 being three significant recent melt episodes. 相似文献
16.
Juliane Scheder Friederike Bungenstock Kristin Haynert Anna Pint Frank Schlütz Peter Frenzel Achim Wehrmann Helmut Brückner Max Engel 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):71-85
In light of global warming and rising relative sea level (RSL), detailed reconstructions of RSL histories and their controlling processes are essential in order to manage coastal-protection challenges. This study contributes to unravelling Holocene RSL change on the East Frisian North Sea coast in high resolution and with a new approach for the German Bight. For the first time, a transfer function (vertical error: 29.7 cm ? ~11% of the mean tidal range) for RSL change based on a combined training set of benthic foraminifers and ostracods from the back-barrier tidal basin of Spiekeroog is applied to the Holocene record of the back-barrier tidal basin of Norderney. The resulting RSL curve for the Norderney tidal basin is corrected for decompaction and shows a deceleration in RSL rise between 6000 and 5000 cal bp. The smallest possible error envelope (~1 m) results from the good suitability of salt-marsh layers between 5000 and 4000 cal bp. The RSL curve provides an approach towards the closure of the common data gap of peat-based curves for the southern North Sea related to a lack of basal peats in the youngest age range, and verifies regional differences in glacial isostatic adjustment. 相似文献
17.
海平面上升对我国沿海低地的影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
介绍了影响我国沿海低地相对海平面上升的因素,讨论了相对海平面上升对我国海岸侵蚀、沿海低地淹没等影响以及风险等级划分的若干问题。 相似文献
18.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(14-15):1673-1690
Sedimentary sequences deposited by the decaying marine margin of the British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) record isostatic depression and successive ice sheet retreat towards centres of ice dispersion. Radiocarbon dating by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) of in situ marine microfaunas that are commonly associated with these sequences constrain the timing of glacial and sea level fluctuations during the last deglaciation, enabling us to evaluate the dynamics of the BIIS and its response to North Atlantic climate change. Here we use our radiocarbon-dated stratigraphy to define six major glacial and sea level events since the Last Glacial Maximum. (1) Initial deglaciation may have occurred ⩾18.3 kyr 14C BP along the northwestern Irish coast, in agreement with a deglacial age of ∼22 36Cl kyr BP for southwestern Ireland. Ice retreated to inland centres and areas of transverse moraine began to form across the north Irish lowlands. (2) Channels cut into glaciomarine deglacial sediments along the western Irish Sea coast are graded to below present sea level, identifying a fall of relative sea level (RSL) in response to isostatic emergence of the coast. (3) Marine mud that rapidly infilled these channels records an abrupt rise in global sea level of 10–15 m ∼16.7 14C kyr BP that flooded the Irish Sea coast and may have triggered deglaciation of a marine-based margin in Donegal Bay. (4) Intertidal boulder pavements in Dundalk Bay indicate that RSL ∼15.0 14C kyr BP was similar to present. (5) A major readvance of all sectors of the BIIS occurred between 14 and 15 kyr 14C BP which overprinted subglacial transverse moraines and delivered a substantial sediment flux to tidewater ice sheet margins. This event, the Killard Point Stadial, indicates that the BIIS participated in Heinrich event 1. (6) Subsequent deposition of marine muds on drumlins 12.7 14C kyr BP indicates isostatic depression and attendant high RSL resulting from the Killard Point readvance. These events identify a dynamic BIIS during the last deglaciation, as well as significant changes in RSL that reflect a combination of isostatic loading and eustatic changes in global sea level. 相似文献
19.
We use the radiocarbon ages of marine shells and terrestrial vegetation to reconstruct relative sea level (RSL) history in northern Southeast Alaska. RSL fell below its present level around 13,900 cal yr BP, suggesting regional deglaciation was complete by then. RSL stayed at least several meters below modern levels until the mid-Holocene, when it began a fluctuating rise that probably tracked isostatic depression and rebound caused by varying ice loads in nearby Glacier Bay. This fluctuating RSL rise likely reflects the episodic but progressive advance of ice in Glacier Bay that started around 6000 cal yr BP. After that time, RSL low stands probably signaled minor episodes of glacier retreat/thinning that triggered isostatic rebound and land uplift. Progressive, down-fjord advance of the Glacier Bay glacier during the late Holocene is consistent with the main driver of this glacial system being the dynamics of its terminus rather than climate change directly. Only after the glacier reached an exposed position protruding into Icy Strait ca. AD 1750, did its terminus succumb - a century before the climate changes that marked the end of the Little Ice Age - to the catastrophic retreat that triggered the rapid isostatic rebound and RSL fall occurring today in Icy Strait. 相似文献