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1.
全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。 相似文献
2.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides. 相似文献
3.
4.
Pre-conditioning factors and susceptibility assessments of Wenchuan earthquake landslide at the Zhouqu segment of Bailongjiang basin, China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Shibiao Bai Qiang Xu Jian Wang Pinggen Zhou 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2013,82(5):575-582
In this study, we present a landslide susceptibility assessment carried out after the devastating 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. For the Zhouqu segment in the Bailongjiang basin in north-western China landslide susceptibility was computed by a logistic regression method. This region has been experiencing landslides for a long time, and numerous additional slope failures were triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The data used for this study consists of slope failures attributed to the 2008 earthquake, the 878 post Wenchuan earthquake landslides and collapses inventory build up by combination the field investigation, monoscopic manual interpretation, image classification and texture analysis using SPOT 5 and ALOS remote-sensing image data. All data derived from remote sensing images are validated during field investigations. The landslide pre-disposing factor database was constructed. A digital elevation model (DEM) with a 30 × 30 m resolution, orthophotos, geological and land-use maps and information on peak ground acceleration data from the 2008 earthquake is used. The statistical analysis of the relation between Wencuan earthquake-triggered landslides and pre-disposing factors show the great influence of lithological and topographical conditions for earthquake-triggered slope failures. The quality of susceptibility mapping was validated by splitting the study area into a training and validation set. The prediction capability analysis showed that the landslide susceptibility map could be used for land planning as well as emergency planning by local authorities in this region. 相似文献
5.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes
and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. In the
3-D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters. The probabilistic models evaluate
the probability of failure under seismic loading and consider the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem,
i.e. uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in situ values of shear strength parameters,
randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake-induced acceleration. The models also take into consideration the spatial
variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program, PTDDSSA (probabilistic
three-dimensional dynamic slope stability analysis). These developed analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a
code named SARETL (stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides) that was developed in this study
for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces; the
developed system takes into consideration the local site effects. The code is capable of: 1. Prediction of permanent deformations
that result from landslides under seismic loading using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. 2. The assessment
of landslide hazard that affects major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes, and the preparation of earthquake-induced
landslide hazard maps (i.e. maps that show expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different
earthquakes magnitudes and environmental conditions. 3. Proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides and suggesting
guidelines for remedial measures. The developed expert system is applied to a major highway case study. Design maps are developed
for the highway under seismic loading.
Received: 18 March 1999 · Accepted: 11 October 1999 相似文献
6.
Susceptibility assessments of the Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslides in Longnan using logistic regression 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study a Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility assessment was carried out in the Longnan area in northwestern China using a GIS-based logistic regression model. This region has frequently been affected by landslides in the past, and was intensively affected by the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake which received considerable international attention. The data used for this study consist of the landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake and a landslide pre-disposing factor database. Information regarding the landslide causative factors came from additional data sources, such as a digital elevation model (DEM) with a 30 × 30 m2 resolution, orthophotos, geological and land-use maps, precipitation records, and information on peak ground acceleration data from the 2008 earthquake. The statistical analysis of the relationship between the Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslides and pre-disposing factors showed the great influence of lithological and topographical conditions on slope failures. The quality of susceptibility mapping was validated by splitting the study area into training and validation sections. The prediction capability analysis demonstrated that the landslide susceptibility map could be used for land planning as well as emergency planning by local authorities. 相似文献
7.
地震滑坡发生真实概率研究基本空白。本研究创新性的利用贝叶斯概率方法与机器模型开展了中国地震滑坡危险性真实概率研究,制作了第一代中国地震滑坡危险性概率图。基于9个地震案例开展研究,包括1999年台湾集集、2005年克什米尔、2008年汶川、2010年玉树、2013年芦山、2013岷县、2014鲁甸、2015尼泊尔、2017九寨沟地震,这9次地震中7次发生在中国,2005年克什米尔与2015尼泊尔地震均发生在中国邻区,可以更好的控制模型预测精度。这些地震事件均有详细完整的,利用面要素标识的地震滑坡数据,包括306 435处真实的地震滑坡记录。考虑到真实的地震滑坡发生区域,滑坡面积规模的差别,滑坡与不滑样本的比例等因素,共选取了5 117 000个模型训练样本。选择绝对高程、相对高差、坡度、坡向、斜坡曲率、坡位、地形湿度指数、土地覆盖类型、植被覆盖度、与断层距离、地层、年均降水量、地震动峰值加速度共13个地震滑坡影响因子。采用贝叶斯概率方法与机器学习模型相结合,建立地震滑坡发生的多因素影响模型,得到各个连续因子的权重与分类因子的各个分类的权重。再将模型应用到整个中国研究区,地震动峰值加速度因子为触发因子。分别考虑研究区在经历不同地震动峰值加速度（0.1~1 g,每0.1 g一个结果,共10个结果）下的地震滑坡发生真实概率。此外,还结合中国地震动峰值加速度分布图,得到了中国地震动峰值加速度背景下的地震滑坡发生真实概率分布。 相似文献
8.
汶川MS8.0级地震、芦山MS7.0级地震和鲁甸MS6.5级地震均引发了大量的滑坡灾害。由于震级差异和地质地形条件的不同,地震滑坡分布情况有较大区别。本文综合已有的研究成果,从地震、地质和地貌3个方面,对比分析了地震滑坡的分布规律。结果表明:（1）3次地震滑坡数量和密度随着PGA和震级的增加而增加。汶川和鲁甸地震随烈度的增加,滑坡数量呈现递增的趋势。但芦山地震在较低烈度区也发育着大量滑坡。（2）断层影响滑坡分布的最大距离随着震级的增加而增加。在最大影响距离0.2倍的范围内,汶川地震分布有80%的滑坡,而其他两次地震仅30%。此外,汶川地震滑坡数量随断层距离呈指数衰减关系。（3）地震滑坡的分布受到地形的强烈影响。Ⅶ度及以上烈度区地形切割深度越大,地震触发的滑坡集中分布区域相对高差越大。同时,滑坡集中发育的坡度会随之增加。切割深度越大,地震滑坡更易发生在地势较陡的山脊或者上坡处,这可能与地形放大效应有关。 相似文献
9.
Influence of seismic acceleration on landslide susceptibility maps: a case study from NE Turkey (the Kelkit Valley) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Particularly in the last decade, landslide susceptibility and hazard maps have been used for urban planning and site selection of infrastructures. Most of the procedures for preparing of landslide susceptibility maps need high-quality landslide inventory map. Although the rainfall and seismic activities are accepted as triggering factor for landslides, designation of the triggering factor for each landslide in the inventory is almost impossible when well-documented records are unavailable. Therefore, during preparation of landslide susceptibility map, whole landslide records in the inventory map are used together without classifying based on the triggering factors. Although seismic activity is accepted as a triggering factor, possible effect of the use of seismic activity on production of landslide susceptibility map was investigated in this study, and the subject is open to discussion. For this purpose, a series of stability analyses based on circular failure and infinite slope model were performed considering different pseudostatic conditions. The results of analyses show that gentle slopes have higher susceptibility to failure than steeper ones, even if their stability conditions (susceptibilities) are similar for static condition. The seismic forces acting on failure surfaces may not be sufficiently taken into consideration in the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility maps. Employing the general decreasing trend in stability condition based on slope face angle and the seismic acceleration, a new procedure was introduced for preparing of the landslide susceptibility map for a scenario earthquake. The prediction performance of occurring landslides increased after the procedure was applied to the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility map. According to the threshold independent spatial performance analyses of the proposed methodology and the produced landslide susceptibility maps, the area under ROC curve values were calculated as 0.801, 0.933, and 0.947 for the maps prepared by considering conventional method and scenario earthquakes having M w values of 5.5 and 7.5, respectively. 相似文献
10.
Mass movements and earthquakes represent two major geological hazards in the municipal territory of Caramanico Terme (south-central Apennines). Available records revealed the contemporaneous occurrence of earthquakes and slope failures on four occasions in the last four centuries (1627, 1706, 1933, and 1984). These events, with local intensities ranging from VI to IX, generated mass movements varying from a rotational slope failure to rock/block falls. All occurred in the southern periphery of the town and involved a thick carbonate megabreccia caprock and coarse colluvia which overlie a clayey substratum. Field investigation and review of historical records helped to delimit the areas susceptible to seismically triggered rockfalls. The mapping of historic and pre-historic rockfall deposits revealed their dispersal patterns and provided the basis for a determination of potential hazard zones. We approximate the temporal hazard assessment by relating the rockfall occurrence to the probability of earthquake triggering. Considering the VI degree triggering threshold indicated by local historical data, the statistical analysis of the regional seismic activity shows that events capable of inducing rockfalls have an approximately decennial recurrence in Caramanico. The approach presented could be readily applied to other potential risk areas of Italy by exploiting the rich long-term record of historical seismicity. In general, temporal hazard estimates at relatively low intensity levels will be possible even where the seismic history of the site is only well documented for a relatively limited time interval, provided that this interval is much longer than the recurrence time of the events exceeding the threshold considered. 相似文献
11.
地震对人类的威胁不仅是发生时直接造成的人员伤亡和财产损失, 更体现在地震所产生的高隐蔽性、高危险性滑坡隐患体带来的危害, 震后区域滑坡隐患体的快速识别和科学评价在震后抢险、排险工作中至关重要。以九寨沟地区“川主寺—九寨沟”公路沿线区域为研究对象, 建立了基于DInSAR-BP神经网络技术的震后区域滑坡危险性综合评价模型。研究结果显示, 九寨沟地区震后的滑坡高危险性区域面积约为2602.35 km2, 是震前的3.4倍, 并且这些区域主要分布在震中东北方向约20 km附近、九寨沟景区内以及川九路前70 km, 符合震后调查情况; 使用多元非线性回归法可以有效计算震后地表形变值对滑坡危险性的影响, 使震后危险性评价结果精度提高了13.9%, 证明了模型在研究区域内具有良好的适用性。 相似文献
12.
Landslide susceptibility evaluation is one of the most important issues in watershed management. After an earthquake, the landslide susceptibility decreases functionally with increases in the distance from the epicenter. Under the same rainfall intensity, landslides are more likely to occur in an area where earthquakes occur more frequently. However, the questions of how much an earthquake should be weighted and how to evaluate the effects of an earthquake still need to be studied. To understand how earthquakes affect rainfall-triggered landslides, the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) data from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network is used as the earthquake factor and combined with other factors to determine the weight of earthquakes in landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. The results indicate that the ability of landslide prediction is better when considering the earthquake factor. This study also proved that although there are no co-seismic landslides (after earthquakes) in the study area, the earthquake factor is still required to increase the model accuracy. PGA has been described as a usable factor. In areas with frequent earthquakes and high geological activity, when using historical data to evaluate landslide susceptibility, the earthquake factor should be taken into consideration to prevent errors. 相似文献
13.
The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. 相似文献
14.
历史强震对渭河中游群发大型滑坡的诱发效应反演 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以渭河中游地区为例,探索提出了开展历史地震对区域群发滑坡诱发效应反演研究的思路和方法。首先,基于汶川地震在渭河中游地区形成的高烈度异常和震害启示,通过区域活动构造和斜坡带断裂控滑分析,指出历史强震对区内群发大型滑坡的诱发效应不容忽视。然后,利用强震诱发滑坡的最远致灾震中距分析法,筛选出研究区周边300 km范围内需要重点考察其诱发效应的4次关键历史强震:公元前780年岐山MS7.0级地震、1654年天水南MS8.0级地震、1556年华县MS8.25级地震及1920年海原MS8.5级地震。随后,以岐山地震为例,具体阐述了基于Newmark位移模型的地震诱发滑坡位移及危险性反演评估方法;同时反演了其他3次历史强震诱发区内滑坡位移及危险性。最后,定量比较了反演历史强震诱发滑坡的位移与实际大型滑坡分布的空间匹配程度,结果显示天水南MS8.0级地震对渭河中游现存群发大型滑坡的诱发效应最强。 相似文献
15.
Analysis of a spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata Prefecture, Japan 总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15
On October 23, 2004, a series of powerful earthquakes with a maximum M
w = 6.6 located near the western coast of northern Honshu struck parts of northern Japan, particularly Niigata Prefecture;
these earthquakes were known as the Chuetsu event. Thousands of landslides, as a secondary geotechnical hazard associated
with these earthquakes, were triggered over a broad area; these landslides were of almost all types. The purpose of this study
was to detect correlations between landslide occurrence with geologic and geomorphologic conditions, slope geometry, and earthquake
parameters using two indexes based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the study area, the landslide–area ratio (LAR),
which is defined as the percentage of the area affected by landslides, was 2.9%, and the landslide concentration (LC), the
number of landslides per square kilometer, was 4.4 landslides/km2, which is much more than other reported cases of seismic activity with the same magnitude. This was possibly due to heavy
rainfall just before the Chuetsu earthquakes. Statistical analyses show that LAR has a positive correlation with slope steepness
and distance from the epicenter, while LC is inversely correlated with distance from the epicenter. The Wanazu Formation had
the most concentrated landslide activity, followed by the Kawaguchi, Ushigakubi, Shiroiwa and Oyama Formations, although the
Wanazu Formation occupied only 4.5% of the total area of geological units. With 8.2% of the area affected by seismic landslides,
the Kawaguchi Formation had the highest LAR. It was followed by the Shiroiwa, Ushigakubi and Wanazu Formations with LAR ranging
from 4.6% to 6.0%. For lots of geological subunits, landslides are more frequent in a range of slope angles between 15° and
40°. The susceptibility to landsliding of each geologic unit was thus evaluated to correlate with slope steepness. It was
also noted that the effects of the earthquakes were made far worse by antecedent rainfall conditions induced by a␣typhoon,
and further research emphasizing the role of antecedent rainfall was discussed. 相似文献
16.
Landslides triggered by moderate to major earthquakes are a recognized seismic hazard. Arias Intensity (I a) is a key intensity measure of the ground motion, but significant duration is widely used to define strong motion duration. We calculate Newmark’s displacements using earthquake records bracketing a broad range of Arias Intensity and significant duration employing Newmark’s rigid block method and a number of yield accelerations. Total landslide displacement increases with the increase in the energy content of the ground motion (I a) above a threshold. Such threshold may be expressed as a function of yield acceleration of the slope regardless of the ground motion characteristics. Newmark displacement decreases with increasing duration for earthquakes with similar energy content. The wide scatter in the results converges when using formal dimensional analysis. Self-similar symmetry may facilitate the assessment of the performance of slopes during earthquakes. The mathematical framework for probabilistic determination of landslides displacement may be a useful aid to estimate the likelihood of landslide hazards provided that the geotechnical properties of the slopes are known. 相似文献
17.
2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
最新研究成果表明, 2008年5月12日汶川MS 8.0级地震触发了超过197000处滑坡。首先,基于GIS与遥感技术构建了汶川地震滑坡的3类编目图,分别为单体滑坡面分布数据、滑坡中心点位置和滑坡后壁点位置。构建方法为基于地震前后高分辨率遥感影像的目视解译方法,区分单体滑坡并圈定其边界,对滑坡后壁进行识别与定点,并开展了部分滑坡的野外验证工作。这些滑坡分布在一个面积大约为110000km2的区域内,滑坡总面积约为1160km2。选择一个面积约为44031km2的区域作为研究区,区内滑坡数量为196007个,滑坡面积为1150.622km2,这是最详细完整的汶川地震滑坡编录成果,也是单次地震事件触发滑坡最多的记录。其次,开展研究区内的地震滑坡空间分布规律的研究。基于滑坡面与滑坡中心点分别构建滑坡空间分布面积密度图与点密度图,结果表明:滑坡多沿着映秀北川断裂分布,多发生在断裂的上盘。滑坡的高密度区位于映秀北川同震地表破裂的南西段(映秀镇与北川县之间)的上盘区域,这一区域恰对应着逆冲分量为主的断裂上盘,表明逆冲断裂对上盘区域发生滑坡的极强烈的控制作用,而该区域正是形变最大的区域,因此说明是地震滑坡发生的强烈控制作用。基于滑坡面密度(LAP)、滑坡中心点密度(LCND)与滑坡后壁点密度(LTND)这3个衡量指标,使用统计分析方法,评价了汶川地震滑坡与地震参数、地质参数、地形参数的关系。结果表明:LAP、LCND与LTND这3个衡量指标与坡度、地震烈度与PGA存在明显的正相关关系; 与距离震中、距离映秀北川同震地表破裂存在负相关关系; 斜坡曲率越接近0,滑坡越不易发生; LAP、LCND与LTND的高值高程区间为1200～3000m; 滑坡发生的优势坡向为E、SE、S方向; 滑坡发育的易发岩性为砂岩与粉砂岩(Z)、花岗岩; 滑坡与坡位的相关关系不太明显。统计结果还表明LCND与LTND两个衡量指标的差异对地震与地质因子不敏感,而对地形因子较敏感。最后将本文的统计结果与以往的汶川地震滑坡空间分布规律统计成果进行了一些对比,对比结果表明,对于某些因子,如高程、岩性、距离震中、距离映秀北川断裂的统计分析结果,采用不完整的滑坡分布数据或点数据,与采用较完整的滑坡分布面数据会有一定的差异,这种差异并未出现在针对坡度与坡向等因子的统计对比结果中。总之,作者认为一个完备、详细的地震滑坡分布面要素编目图是地震滑坡空间分布规律定量分析、危险性定量分析与滑坡控制的地震区地貌演化研究的重要基础,否则,与实际情况相比,得到统计结果会有一定的偏差,本文的研究成果与以往成果的对比结果证明了这一点。 相似文献
18.
Maria Serafina Barbano Giovanna Pappalardo Claudia Pirrotta Simone Mineo 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1587-1607
A new dataset of landslides, occurred in a tectonically active region, has been analysed in order to understand the causes of the slope instability. The landslides we have dealt with took place along the volcanic rock cliff of S. Caterina and S. Maria La Scala villages (eastern Sicily, Italy), a densely inhabited area located on the eastern margin of Mt. Etna, where some seismogenic faults, locally named Timpe system, slip during moderate local earthquakes and also move with aseismic creep mechanisms. The results show that landslides are triggered by heavy rainfalls, earthquakes and creep fault episodes. Indeed, they occur along discrete fault segments, exhibiting a combination of both brittle failure, indicated by the earthquake occurrence, and aseismic creep events. The analysis of seismicity occurred on the Timpe fault system has shown that the active Acireale fault, in its southernmost segment, is subject to an aseismic sliding, which increases after the stick–slip motion in the nearby faults. Therefore, aseismic creep seems to concur in the predisposition of a rock to fail, since strains can increase the jointing of rock masses leading to a modification in the slope stability. Understanding the factors concurring to the slope instability is a useful tool for future assessments of the landslide hazard in densely settled areas, located on a volcanic edifice, such as Etna that is slowly sliding seawards, and where active faults, seismicity and heavy rains affect the deeply fractured slopes. 相似文献
19.
Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
Dieu Tien Bui Biswajeet Pradhan Owe Lofman Inge Revhaug Øystein B. Dick 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):707-730
The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years. 相似文献
20.
以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例, 探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征, 以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上, 分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型, 进行了日超越概率10%的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估; 同时, 结合地震危险性区划成果, 开展了50年超越概率10%的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上, 利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件, 开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征(Runout)模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。 相似文献