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1.
Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2–5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from −0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.  相似文献   

2.
Increased Carbon Sink in Temperate and Boreal Forests   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
An intense search is under way to identify the `missing sink' in the world carbon budget of perhaps 2 Pg year–1 (petagrams, or billiontonnes) of carbon, but its location and mechanism have proved elusive. Here we use a new forest inventory data set to estimate the carbon sink and the carbon pool of woody biomass in 55 countries that account for nearly all temperate or boreal forests and approximately half the world's total forest area. In each country there was a net accumulation of biomass; together, the carbon sink of woody biomass was 0.88 Pg year–1 during the 1990swith estimated uncertainty from 0.71 to 1.1 Pg year–1. Thisestimate, already about half of the missing sink, would probably be even larger if carbon accumulation in soil and detritus were also accounted for, but we are unable to quantify that additional sink. The sink is twice that estimated for the woody biomass of these forests a decade ago due to higher estimates for tree growth throughout the region and decreased timber harvests in Russia. In contrast, the new data indicate a carbon pool that is smaller than earlier estimates because of improved data for Russia and Australia.  相似文献   

3.
A carbon budget model was developed to examine the effects of forest management practices on carbon storage in U.S. private timberlands. The model explicitly incorporates the demand for wood products and its impact on harvesting and other management decisions. Forest carbon is divided into four components: carbon stored in trees, soils, forest litter, and understory vegetation. Changes in the forest carbon inventory result from tree growth and management activities, in particular harvesting. Harvesting of timber for wood products is determined by demand and supply forces. The model then tracks carbon in timber removals through primary and secondary processing and disposal stages. Harvesting also has effects on carbon in soils, forest litter, and understory vegetation. A base-run scenario projects increases in carbon storage in U.S. private timberlands by 2040; however, this increase is offset by carbon emissions resulting from harvesting.  相似文献   

4.
Development trends of Russian forests and their impact on the global carbon budget were assessed at the national level on the basis of long-term forest inventory data (1961–1998). Over this period, vegetation of Russian forest lands are estimated as a carbon sink, with an annual average level of carbon sequestration in vegetational organic matter of 210 ± 30 Tg C · yr–1 (soil carbon is not considered in this study), of which 153 Tg C · yr–1 were accumulated in live biomass and 57 Tg C · yr–1 in dead wood. The temporal variability of the sink is very large; for the five-year averages used in the analysis, the C sequestration varies from about 60 to above 300 Tg C· yr–1. It is shown that long-term forest inventory data could serve as an important information base for assessing crucial indicators of full carbon accounting of forests.  相似文献   

5.
The present study estimates the net emission of carbon from the forest sector in India. For the reference year (1986), the gross emission from deforestation in that year, plus committed emissions from deforestation in the preceding years, is estimated to be 64 × 106 t of C. The carbon sequestration (or net woody biomass accumulation in trees for long-term storage) from the area brought under tree plantations and the existing forest area under forest succession is estimated to offset the gross carbon emission in India, leading to no net emissions of carbon from the forest sector. Medium-term projections for India (for the year 2011) show that under a business as usual scenario at current rates of afforestation, projected carbon emissions would continue to be balanced by sequestration.  相似文献   

6.
Forest inventories and remote sensing are the two principal data sources used to estimate carbon (C) stocks and fluxes for large forest regions. National governments have historically relied on forest inventories for assessments but developments in remote sensing technology provide additional opportunities for operational C monitoring. The estimate of total C stock in live forest biomass modeled from Landsat imagery for the St. Petersburg region was consistent with estimates derived from forest inventory data for the early 1990s (272 and 269 TgC, respectively). The estimates of mean C sink in live forest biomass also agreed well (0.36 and 0.34 Mg C ha–1 yr–1). Virtually all forest lands were accumulating C in live biomass, however when the net change in total ecosystem C stock was considered, 19% of the forest area were a net source of C. The average net C sink in total ecosystem biomass is quite weak (0.08 MgC ha–1 yr–1 and could be reversed by minor increases in harvest rates or a small decline in biomass growth rates.  相似文献   

7.
Forest inventories and remote sensing are the two principal data sources used to estimate carbon (C) stocks and fluxes for large forest regions. National governments have historically relied on forest inventories for assessments but developments in remote sensing technology provide additional opportunities for operational C monitoring. The estimate of total C stock in live forest biomass modeled from Landsat imagery for the St. Petersburg region was consistent with estimates derived from forest inventory data for the early 1990s (272 and 269 TgC, respectively). The estimates of mean C sink in live forest biomass also agreed well (0.36 and 0.34 Mg C ha–1 yr–1). Virtually all forest lands were accumulating C in live biomass, however when the net change in total ecosystem C stock was considered, 19% of the forest area were a net source of C. The average net C sink in total ecosystem biomass is quite weak (0.08 MgC ha–1 yr–1 and could be reversed by minor increases in harvest rates or a small decline in biomass growth rates.  相似文献   

8.
This study is a contribution to the ongoing debate about the selection of the approach for carbon accounting in wood products to be used, in the future, in the national greenhouse gas inventories under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Two accounting approaches are used in this analysis: the stock-change approach and the atmospheric-flow approach. They are applied to the Portuguese Eucalyptus globulus forest sector. To achieve this objective, the fluxes of wood removed from the forest are tracked through its life cycle, which includes products manufacture (mainly pulp and paper), use and final disposal (landfilling, incineration and composting). This study develops a framework to the estimation of carbon sequestration in the forest of E. globulus, a fast growing species, more specifically, in the calculation of the conversion factors such as bark and foliage percentages and densities, used to convert wood volumes into total biomass. A mass balance approach based on real data from mills is also proposed, in order to assess carbon emissions from wood processing. The results show that E. globulus forest sector was a carbon sink, but the magnitude of the carbon sequestration differs substantially depending on the accounting approach used. The contribution of the forest ecosystem was smaller than the aggregated contribution of wood products in use and in landfills (including industrial waste), which reinforces the role that wood products play in national carbon budgets.  相似文献   

9.
Considered are the contribution of managed forests in the Russian Federation to the climate change softening and the forecast of their carbon-depositing potential in the period till 2050 under different scenarios of the forest management. The sink of CO2 to managed forests is estimated using the flow balance method. The CBM-CFS3 model worked out in the Canadian Forestry Service is used for predicting the carbon budget. It is found out that managed forests absorb 473.8 Mt of CO2 per year. The carbon sink is caused by the reduction of the volume of the forest use and by the regeneration of cutover stands of previous years. Depending on the conditions of the forest use, by 2020 the CO2 sink to managed forests will amount to 466–632 Mt/year and will be able to compensate from 21 to 29% of industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. The carbon absorption by managed forests will decrease to 105–235 Mt/year by 2050. To maintain and increase the carbon-depositing potential of managed forests, the Russian Federation needs the development of the system of purposeful activities on strengthening the protection against forest fires and on the intensification of forest reproduction.  相似文献   

10.
Estimates of carbon emissions from the forest sector in Mexico are derived for the year 1985 and for two contrasting scenarios in 2025. The analysis covers both tropical and temperate closed forests. In the mid-1980s, approximately 804,000 ha/year of closed forests suffered major perturbations, of which 668,000 ha was deforestation. Seventy-five percent of total deforestation is concentrated in tropical forests. The resulting annual carbon balance from land-use change is estimated at 67.0 × 106 tons/year, which lead to net emissions of 52.3 × 106 tons/year accounting for the carbon uptake in restoration plantations and degraded forest lands. This last figure represents approximately 40% of the country's estimated annual total carbon emissions for 1985–1987. The annual carbon balance from the forest sector in 2025 is expected to decline to 28.0 × 106 t in the reference scenario and to become negative (i.e., a carbon sink), 62.0 × 106 t in the policy scenario. A number of policy changes are identified that would help achieve the carbon sequestration potential identified in this last scenario.  相似文献   

11.
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12.
Accounting harvested wood products and their trade as an integral part of thecarbon cycle of a managed forest is achallenging task. Nevertheless, an appropriate way is especially needed nowthat harvested wood products may be includedin Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. The adoption of a method for accountingfor these flows in the IPCC guidelines mayhave implications for the trade of wood products and thus on global forestmanagement.Four methods of accounting for wood products in an international perspective areanalyzed in the present study. The aimis to obtain insight in the technical and policy implications of the proposedmethods. These methods include the presentdefault IPCC method and three alternatives: flow consumption, flow production,and stock change. All fourmethodologies are applied to the 1990 data of Gabon, Sweden, and TheNetherlands.The impact of accounting for wood products using alternative methods has –in some cases – a large impact on the carbonbalance of the Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) sector. In the case of TheNetherlands, it was found that theLUCF carbon balance could be `converted' from a sink into a source dependingon the method chosen. However,the LUCF sector is very small compared to the total national carbon balancein The Netherlands. In Sweden, a countrywhere the forest sector plays an important role, the alternative wood productmethods influence the total nationalcarbon balance by 34%. In Gabon, a country with conversion forestry,the impact of alternative wood productmethods hardly influences the LUCF carbon balance because the emissions fromdeforestation are very large.The accounting method may have a large impact on the way countries regardtheir trade in wood products. It may bepossible for countries to buy a sink through the wood products trade, byimporting products faster than they decomposedomestically. In the case of Gabon with its conversion forestry (the changefrom forest into other types of land use, like agriculture,it was foundthat under the flow consumption method,this country can partly export the carbon sources resulting fromnonsustainable forest management. Nor is this lattermethod consistent with the energy chapter of the IPCC guidelines. The stockchange method seems to be a suitablemethod, combining precise accounting and simplicity. This method is also anincentive for the use of wood in long-lifeproducts and bioenergy, and for sustainable forest management.  相似文献   

13.
为了应对全球气候变化带来的挑战,2020年9月中国提出努力争取在2060年前实现碳中和。对此,生态系统固碳被寄予厚望;然而,生态学理论认为,成熟生态系统的碳输入输出趋于平衡,没有碳的净积累,也就没有碳汇功能,而未成熟的生态系统虽有碳的净积累并具有碳汇功能,但自然界任何未成熟生态系统从它建立的时候开始都在不断地向成熟生态系统演替,即任一生态系统演替的最终结果必然是碳输入输出达到平衡状态。由于森林生态系统碳库是陆地生态系统中最大的碳库,所以人们对其在碳中和上的贡献充满期待。本文以森林生态系统为例,分别考虑森林生态系统碳库的生物量碳库和土壤有机碳库,并基于全球最新研究成果,论证了森林生态系统土壤碳库积累过程具有长久的固碳功能,且不违背成熟生态系统碳输入输出趋于平衡的生态学理论,它能为实现碳中和目标做出贡献。  相似文献   

14.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):243-260
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol has expedited various global warming mitigation opportunities that allow Bangladesh to receive investments from those Annex I countries wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Bangladesh has a special interest in strategies for combating global warming because its large areas that need to be planted represent a potentially large carbon sink, and at the same time its high rate of deforestation represents a huge carbon source. To properly assign carbon credits within the forestry sector of Bangladesh, a number of important issues and uncertainties need to be examined and resolved. Afforestation and reforestation (A/R) offers opportunities for carbon credits, which is subject to the end-use of the forest products. A/R may be the best option, as well as conserving the existing carbon sink offered by Bangladesh for mitigating global warming. This article discusses the legal issues raised in combating global warming; the potential of the Bangladesh forestry sector to combat global warming; implications of the forestry options for different land uses; and issues to be settled regarding carbon credits. Future policy and governance issues are considered which will enable the Bangladesh forestry sector to mitigate global warming and to obtain carbon credits.  相似文献   

15.
This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 – were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario.  相似文献   

16.
Sea level rise (SLR) is among the climate-change-related problems of greatest concern, threatening the lives and property of coastal residents and generating far-reaching economic and ecological impacts. We project that SLR will lead to an increase in the rate of new housing construction to replace destroyed structures, impact global wood products supply and demand conditions, and cause changes in global forest sector carbon mitigation potential. Findings indicate that 71 million new units will be built by 2050 to accommodate the SLR-affected global population. More than two-thirds of these new units are projected to be in Asia. The estimated extra wood products needed to build these new residential units is 1,659 million m3, assuming that all these structures would be built mainly with wood, representing a 4 % increase in total wood consumption, compared to projected reference level global wood products consumption. Increased timber removals to meet this higher construction wood demand (alternative scenario) is shown to deplete global forest carbon by 2 % by 2050 compared to the reference scenario. However, all such projected declines in forest biomass carbon could be more than offset by increased carbon sequestration in harvested wood products, avoided emissions due to substitution of wood for non-wood materials in construction, and biomass regrowth on forestland by 2050, with an estimated net emissions reduction benefit of 0.47 tCO2e/tCO2e of extra wood used in SLR-related new houses over 30 years. The global net emissions reduction benefit increased to 2.13 tCO2e/tCO2e of extra wood when price-induced changes in forest land area were included.  相似文献   

17.
In order to estimate the production of charcoal and the atmospheric emissions of trace gases volatilized by burning we have estimated the global amounts of biomass which are affected by fires. We have roughly calculated annual gross burning rates ranging between about 5 Pg and 9 Pg (1 Pg = 1015 g) of dry matter (2–4 Pg C). In comparison, about 9–17 Pg of above-ground dry matter (4–8 Pg C) is exposed to fires, indicating a worldwide average burning efficiency of about 50%. The production of dead below-ground dry matter varies between 6–9 Pg per year. We have tentatively indicated the possibility of a large production of elemental carbon (0.5–1.7 Pg C/yr) due to the incomplete combustion of biomass to charcoal. This provides a sink for atmospheric CO2, which would have been particularly important during the past centuries. From meager statistical information and often ill-documented statements in the literature, it is extremely difficult to calculate the net carbon release rates to the atmosphere from the biomass changes which take place, especially in the tropics. All together, we calculate an overall effect lof the biosphere on the atmospheric carbon dioxide budget which may range between the possibilities of a net uptake or a net release of about 2 Pg C/yr. The release of CO2 to the atmosphere by deforestation projects may well be balanced by reforestation and by the production of charcoal. Better information is needed, however, to make these estimates more reliable.Now at the Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, FRG.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

18.
An integrated assessment of carbon balance in biomass removed during lumbering and transformed into products of forest, woodworking, and pulp and paper industry is conducted. Carbon sequestration was calculated with the IPCC technique. Depending on the economic state of the forest complex, from 1961 to 2005, its products can be both a source of emission of about 15 Mt CO2 per year and a pool that can uptake up to 54.1 Mt CO2 per year. In 2004, 28.3 Mt CO2 or 1.4% equivalent emission from other national economy sectors came to forest products from the atmosphere. Rational use of forest products and reduced non-productive losses of raw wood can lead to a significant contribution of the forest complex to decrease in greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.  相似文献   

19.
The study reports estimates of above ground phytomass carbon pools in Indian forests for 1992 and 2002 using two different methodologies. The first estimate was derived from remote sensing based forest area and crown density estimates, and growing stock data for 1992 and 2002 and the estimated pool size was in the range 2,626–3,071 Tg C (41 to 48 Mg C ha???1) and 2,660–3,180 Tg C (39 to 47 Mg C ha???1) for 1992 and 2002, respectively. The second methodology followed IPCC 2006 guidelines and using an initial 1992 pool of carbon, the carbon pool for 2002 was estimated to be in the range of 2,668–3,112 Tg C (39 to 46 Mg C ha???1), accounting for biomass increment and removals for the period concerned. The estimated total biomass increment was about 458 Tg over the period 1992–2002. Removals from forests include mainly timber and fuel wood, whereby the latter includes large uncertainty as reported extraction is lower than actual consumption. For the purpose of this study, the annual extraction values of 23 million m3 for timber and 126 million m3 for fuel wood were used. Out of the total area, 10 million ha are plantation forests with an average productivity (3.2 Mg ha???1 year???1) that is higher than natural forests, a correction of 408 Tg C for the 10 year period was incorporated in total estimated phytomass carbon pool of Indian forests. This results in an estimate for the net sink of 4 Tg C year???1. Both approaches indicate Indian forests to be sequestering carbon and both the estimates are in agreement with recent studies. A major uncertainty in Indian phytomass carbon pool dynamics is associated with trees outside forests and with soil organic carbon dynamics. Using recent remote-sensing based estimates of tree cover and growing stock outside forests, the estimated phytomass carbon pool for trees outside forests for the year 2002, is 934 Tg C with a national average tree carbon density of 4 Mg C ha???1 in non-forest area, in contrast to an average density of 43 Mg C ha???1 in forests. Future studies will have to consider dynamics in both trees outside forests and soil for total terrestrial carbon dynamics.  相似文献   

20.
Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.  相似文献   

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