首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Fluvial erosion processes are driven by water discharge on the land surface, which is produced by surface runoff and groundwater discharge. Although groundwater is often neglected in long‐term landscape evolution problems, water table levels control patterns of Dunne runoff production, and groundwater discharge can contribute significantly to storm flows. In this analysis, we investigate the role that groundwater movement plays in long‐term drainage basin evolution by modifying a widely used landscape evolution model to include a more detailed representation of basin hydrology. Precipitation is generated by a stochastic process, and the precipitation is partitioned between surface runoff and groundwater recharge using a specified infiltration capacity. Groundwater flow is simulated by a dynamic two‐dimensional Dupuit equation for an unconfined aquifer with an irregular underlying impervious layer. The model is applied to the WE‐38 basin, an experimental catchment in Pennsylvania, because 60–80 per cent of the discharge is derived from groundwater and substantial hydrologic and geomorphic information is available. The hydrologic model is first calibrated to match the observed streamflows, and then the combined hydrologic/geomorphic model is used to simulate scenarios with different infiltration capacities. The results of this modelling exercise indicate that the basin can be divided into three zones with distinct streamflow‐generating characteristics, and different parts of the basin can have different geomorphic effective events. Over long periods of time, scenarios in which groundwater discharge is large tend to modify the topography in a way that promotes groundwater discharge and inhibits Dunne runoff. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
In the modeling of urban storm water runoff temperatures, the contribution of rooftops to the heating of rainfall runoff is usually neglected or not mentioned in the literature. In this paper we examine the accuracy of this assumption (a) by analyzing temperature data that we recorded on a residential rooftop, a commercial rooftop, and a concrete driveway, and (b) by simulating temperature profiles within rooftops and pavements, and estimating heat transfer amounts from these surfaces to rainfall runoff (‘heat export’). Analysis of both wet‐ and dry‐weather temperature data recorded in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area (north‐central USA) over periods of several months leads to the conclusion that (a) a concrete driveway has a far greater capacity for heat storage and release than a shingled residential rooftop, and (b) an insulated commercial rooftop is able to store and release more heat than the residential rooftop. Unexpectedly, the rainfall events with the highest dew point (rainfall) and surface temperatures often occurred during late night or early morning hours, and not during daylight hours. The analysis of three rainfall events showed that the heat export from the commercial rooftop was roughly three times that of the residential rooftop, but only 30%–90% of the heat export from a concrete driveway. Maximum (potential) heat export was significantly higher for the driveway than for either rooftop. In conclusion, the results of the data analysis and heat export simulations support the assumption that residential rooftops contribute very little heating to runoff from rainfall, while commercial rooftops may have a thermal impact on rainfall runoff because of their greater thermal storage capacity. Commercial rooftops, in addition to asphalt and concrete pavements, should be considered when estimating water temperature of rainfall runoff from urbanized areas and the associated impact on the thermal regime of streams and fish habitat. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Distributed, continuous hydrologic models promote better understanding of hydrology and enable integrated hydrologic analyses by providing a more detailed picture of water transport processes across the varying landscape. However, such models are not widely used in routine modelling practices, due in part to the extensive data input requirements, computational demands, and complexity of routing algorithms. We developed a two‐dimensional continuous hydrologic model, HYSTAR, using a time‐area method within a grid‐based spatial data model with the goal of providing an alternative way to simulate spatiotemporally varied watershed‐scale hydrologic processes. The model calculates the direct runoff hydrograph by coupling a time‐area routing scheme with a dynamic rainfall excess sub‐model implemented here using a modified curve number method with an hourly time step, explicitly considering downstream ‘reinfiltration’ of routed surface runoff. Soil moisture content is determined at each time interval based on a water balance equation, and overland and channel runoff is routed on time‐area maps, representing spatial variation in hydraulic characteristics for each time interval in a storm event. Simulating runoff hydrographs does not depend on unit hydrograph theory or on solution of the Saint Venant equation, yet retains the simplicity of a unit hydrograph approach and the capability of explicitly simulating two‐dimensional flow routing. The model provided acceptable performance in predicting daily and monthly runoff for a 6‐year period for a watershed in Virginia (USA) using readily available geographic information about the watershed landscape. Spatial and temporal variability in simulated effective runoff depth and time area maps dynamically show the areas of the watershed contributing to the direct runoff hydrograph at the outlet over time, consistent with the variable source area overland flow generation mechanism. The model offers a way to simulate watershed processes and runoff hydrographs using the time‐area method, providing a simple, efficient, and sound framework that explicitly represents mechanisms of spatially and temporally varied hydrologic processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Run‐off from impervious surfaces has pervasive and serious consequences for urban streams, but the detrimental effects of urban stormwater can be lessened by disconnecting impervious surfaces and redirecting run‐off to decentralized green infrastructure. This study used a before–after‐control‐impact design, in which streets served as subcatchments, to quantify hydrologic effectiveness of street‐scale investments in green infrastructure, such as street‐connected bioretention cells, rain gardens and rain barrels. On the two residential treatment streets, voluntary participation resulted in 32.2% and 13.5% of parcels having green infrastructure installed over a 2‐year period. Storm sewer discharge was measured before and after green infrastructure implementation, and peak discharge, total run‐off volume and hydrograph lags were analysed. On the street with smaller lots and lower participation, green infrastructure installation succeeded in reducing peak discharge by up to 33% and total storm run‐off by up to 40%. On the street with larger lots and higher participation, there was no significant reduction in peak or total stormflows, but on this street, contemporaneous street repairs may have offset improvements. On the street with smaller lots, lag times increased following the first phase of green infrastructure construction, in which streetside bioretention cells were built with underdrains. In the second phase, lag times did not change further, because bioretention cells were built without underdrains and water was removed from the system, rather than just delayed. We conclude that voluntary green infrastructure retrofits that include treatment of street run‐off can be effective for substantially reducing stormwater but that small differences in design and construction can be important for determining the level of the benefit. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
This study presents an analysis of the quality of urban runoff from various land uses by remote‐sensing and GIS technology coupled with hydrological and chemical monitoring. The study areas were located in the cities of Herzliya and Ra′anana, in Israel′s coastal plain, where extensive urbanization has occurred over the last 30 years. Land uses in urban basins were analysed; rain and runoff were measured and sampled at measurement stations representing different land uses (residential, industrial, commercial and roads). The aim was to analyse uses by different remote‐sensing and GIS techniques, to evaluate the quality of urban storm water from various land uses and to verify a method for predicting the impact of urban land uses on the quantity and quality of urban storm water. The quality of urban storm water from residential areas was generally very high, and the water is suitable for reuse or direct recharge into the local aquifer. In light of the serious state of the Israeli water sector and the large amounts of unused runoff produced by Israel′s cities, together with the high quality of urban storm water drained from the residential areas, it is important to exploit this water source. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km2 and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3 °C) and four rainfall scenarios (P ? 10, P ? 5, P + 5 and P + 10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Lei Yao  Liding Chen  Wei Wei 《水文研究》2016,30(12):1836-1848
Imperviousness, considered as a critical indicator of the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, has gained increasing attention both in the research field and in practice. However, the effectiveness of imperviousness on rainfall–runoff dynamics has not been fully determined in a fine spatiotemporal scale. In this study, 69 drainage subareas <1 ha of a typical residential catchment in Beijing were selected to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of imperviousness, under a typical storm event with a 3‐year return period. Two metrics, total impervious area (TIA) and effective impervious area (EIA), were identified to represent the impervious characteristics of the selected subareas. Three runoff variables, total runoff depth (TR), peak runoff depth (PR), and lag time (LT), were simulated by using a validated hydrologic model. Regression analyses were developed to explore the quantitative associations between imperviousness and runoff variables. Then, three scenarios were established to test the applicability of the results in considering the different infiltration conditions. Our results showed that runoff variables are significantly related to imperviousness. However, the hydrologic performances of TIA and EIA were scale dependent. Specifically, with finer spatial scale and the condition heavy rainfall, TIA rather than EIA was found to contribute more to TR and PR. EIA tended to have a greater impact on LT and showed a negative relationship. Moreover, the relative significance of TIA and EIA was maintained under the different infiltration conditions. These findings may provide potential implications for landscape and drainage design in urban areas, which help to mitigate the runoff risk. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Heejun Chang 《水文研究》2007,21(2):211-222
This study investigates changes in streamflow characteristics for urbanizing watersheds in the Portland Metropolitan Area of Oregon for the period from 1951 to 2000. The objective of this study was to assess how mean annual runoff ratio, mean seasonal runoff ratio, annual peak runoff ratio, changes in streamflow in response to storm amount, the fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeds the annual mean flow, 3‐day recession constants, and dry/wet flow ratio vary among watersheds with different degrees of urban development. There were no statistically significant changes in annual runoff ratio and annual peak runoff ratio for the mixed land‐use watershed (Tualatin River watershed) and the urban watershed (Johnson Creek watershed) during the entire study period. The Tualatin River watershed, where most of the urban development occurred in a lower part of the watershed, showed a statistically significant increase in annual peak runoff ratio during the 1976 and 2000 period. The Upper Tualatin River watershed illustrated a significant decrease in annual peak runoff ratio for the entire study period. With significant differences in seasonal runoff ratio, only Johnson Creek exhibited a significant increase in both wet and dry season runoff ratios. Streamflow during storm events declined rapidly in the urban watershed, with a high 3‐day recession constant. At an event storm scale, streamflow in Fanno Creek, which is the most urbanized watershed, responded quickly to precipitation input. The fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeded the annual mean flow and dry/wet flow ratio are all lower in Johnson Creek. This suggests a shorter duration of storm runoff and lower baseflow in the urbanized watershed when compared to the mixed land use watershed. The findings of this study demonstrate the importance of spatial and temporal scale, climate variability, and basin physiographic characteristics in detecting the hydrologic effects of urbanization in the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
The connectivity and upscaling of overland runoff and sediment transport are important issues in hillslope hydrology to identify water flux and sediment transport within landscape. These processes are highly variable in time and space with regard to their interactions with vegetation and soil surface conditions. The generation of overland runoff and its spatial connectivity were examined along a slope to determine the variations in the transport mechanism of runoff and soil particles by rain splash and overland runoff. Field experiments were conducted by erosion plots on a steep hillslope at lengths of 5, 10, and 15 m. The overland runoff connectivity and flow transport distance decreased with the slope length, while spatial variability of infiltration increased significantly with the slope length. Observation of subsurface flow revealed that surface soil and litter layer could have important role in water transport. However, the surface soil water content and water flux transport along the slope was highly variable for different storm events; the variability was related to the complexity of the system, mainly by way of the initial wetness conditions and infiltration characteristics. Only net rain‐splashed soil was measurable, but examination of the water flux, overland runoff and sediment transport connectivity, characteristics of sheetwash, and the variability in spatial infiltration indicated an increase in the contribution of the rain splash transport mechanism along the slope. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
J.M. Buttle  M.C. Eimers   《Journal of Hydrology》2009,374(3-4):360-372
Relationships explaining streamflow behaviour in terms of drainage basin physiography greatly assist efforts to extrapolate streamflow metrics from gauged to ungauged basins in the same landscape. The Dorset Environmental Science Centre (DESC) has monitored streamflow from 22 small basins (3.4–190.5 ha) on the Precambrian Shield in south-central Ontario, in some cases since 1976. The basins exhibit regional coherence in their interannual response to precipitation; however, there is often a poor correlation between streamflow metrics from basins separated by as little as 1 km. This study assesses whether inter-basin variations in such metrics can be explained in terms of basin scale and physiography. Several characteristics (annual maximum, minimum and average flow) exhibited simple scaling with basin area, while magnitude, range and timing of annual maximum daily runoff showed scaling behaviour consistent with the Representative Elementary Area (REA) concept. This REA behaviour is partly attributed to convergence of fractional coverage of the two dominant and hydrologically-contrasting land cover types in the DESC region with increasing basin size. Three Principal Components (PCs) explained 82.4% of the variation among basin physiographic properties, and several runoff metrics (magnitude and timing of annual minimum daily runoff, mean number of days per year with 0 streamflow) exhibited significant relationships with one or more PC. Significant relationships were obtained between basin quickflow (QF) production and the PCs on a seasonal and annual basis, almost all of which were superior to simple area-based relationships. Basin physiography influenced QF generation via its control on slope runoff, water storage and hydrologic connectivity; however, this role was minimized during Spring when QF production in response to large rain-on-snow events was relatively uniform across the DESC basins. The PC-based relationships and inter-seasonal changes in their form were consistent with previous research conducted at point, slope and basin scales in the DESC region, and perceptions of key hydrological processes in these small basins may not have been as readily obtained from scaling studies using streamflow from larger basins. This process understanding provides insights into scaling behaviour beyond those derived from simple scaling and REA analyses. The physiography of the study area is representative of large portions of the Precambrian Shield, such that basin streamflow behaviour could potentially be extended across much of south-central Ontario. This would assist predictions of streamflow conditions at ungauged locations, development and testing of hydrological models for this landscape, and interpretation of inter-basin and intra-annual differences in hydrochemical behaviour on the southern Precambrian Shield.  相似文献   

11.
The East River in South China plays a key role in the socio-economic development in the region and surrounding areas. Adequate understanding of the hydrologic response to land use change is crucial to develop sustainable water resources management strategies in the region. The present study makes an attempt to evaluate the possible impacts of land use change on hydrologic response using a numerical model and corresponding available vegetation datasets. The variable infiltration capacity model is applied to simulate runoff responses to several land use scenarios within the basin (e.g., afforestation, deforestation, and reduction in farmland area) for the period 1952–2000. The results indicate that annual runoff is reduced by 3.5 % (32.3 mm) when 25 % of the current grassland area (including grasslands and wooded grasslands, with 46.8 % of total vegetation cover) is converted to forestland. Afforestation results in reduction in the monthly flow volume, peak flow, and low flow, but with significantly greater reduction in low flow for the basin. The simulated annual runoff increases by about 1.4 % (12.6 mm) in the deforestation scenario by changing forestland (including deciduous broadleaf, evergreen needleleaf, and broadleaf, with 15.6 % of total vegetation cover) to grassland area. Increase in seasonal runoff occurs mainly in autumn for converting cropland to bare soil.  相似文献   

12.
Documenting hillslope response to hydroclimatic forcing is crucial to our understanding of landscape evolution. The evolution of talus-pediment sequences (talus flatirons) in arid areas was often linked to climatic cycles, although the physical processes that may account for such a link remain obscure. Our approach is to integrate field measurements, remote sensing of rainfall and modeling to link between storm frequency, runoff, erosion and sediment transport. We present a quantitative hydrometeorological analysis of rainstorms, their geomorphic impact and their potential role in the evolution of hyperarid talus-pediment slopes in the Negev desert, Israel. Rainstorm properties were defined based on intensity–duration–frequency curves and using a rainfall simulator, artificial rainstorms were executed in the field. Then, the obtained measured experimental results were up-scaled to the entire slope length using a fully distributed hydrological model. In addition, natural storms and their hydro-geomorphic impacts were monitored using X-band radar and time-lapse cameras. These integrated analyses constrain the rainfall threshold for local runoff generation at rain intensity of 14 to 22 mm h-1 for a duration of five minutes and provide a high-resolution characterization of small-scale runoff-generating rain cells. The current frequency of such runoff-producing rainstorms is ~1–3 per year. However, extending this local value into the full extent of hillslope runoff indicates that it occurs only under rainstorms with ≥ 100-years return interval, or 1% annual exceedance probability. Sheetwash efficiency rises with downslope distance; beyond a threshold distance of ~100 m, runoff during rainstorms with such annual exceedance probability are capable of transporting surface clasts. The erosion efficiency of these discrete rare events highlights their potential importance in shaping the landscape of arid regions. Our results support the hypothesis that a shift in the properties and frequency of extreme events can trigger significant geomorphic transitions in areas that remained hyperarid during the entire Quaternary. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The urban environment modifies the hydrologic cycle resulting in increased runoff rates, volumes, and peak flows. Green infrastructure, which uses best management practices (BMPs), is a natural system approach used to mitigate the impacts of urbanization onto stormwater runoff. Patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex, and it is unclear how efficiently green infrastructure will improve the urban water cycle. These challenges arise from issues of scale, the merits of BMPs depend on changes to small‐scale hydrologic processes aggregated up from the neighborhood to the urban watershed. Here, we use a hyper‐resolution (1 m), physically based hydrologic model of the urban hydrologic cycle with explicit inclusion of the built environment. This model represents the changes to hydrology at the BMP scale (~1 m) and represents each individual BMP explicitly to represent response over the urban watershed. Our study varies both the percentage of BMP emplacement and their spatial location for storm events of increasing intensity in an urban watershed. We develop a metric of effectiveness that indicates a nonlinear relationship that is seen between percent BMP emplacement and storm intensity. Results indicate that BMP effectiveness varies with spatial location and that type and emplacement within the urban watershed may be more important than overall percent.  相似文献   

14.
We introduce the freely available web-based Water in an Agricultural Landscape—NUčice Database (WALNUD) dataset that includes both hydrological and meteorological records at the Nučice experimental catchment (0.53 km2), which is representative of an intensively farmed landscape in the Czech Republic. The Nučice experimental catchment was established in 2011 for the observation of rainfall–runoff processes, soil erosion processes, and water balance of a cultivated landscape. The average altitude is 401 m a.s.l., the mean land slope is 3.9%, and the climate is humid continental (mean annual temperature 7.9°C, annual precipitation 630 mm). The catchment is drained by an artificially straightened stream and consists of three fields covering over 95% of the area which are managed by two different farmers. The typical crops are winter wheat, rapeseed, and alfalfa. The installed equipment includes a standard meteorological station, several rain gauges distributed across the basin, and a flume with an H-type facing that is used to monitor stream discharge, water turbidity, and basic water quality indicators. Additionally, the groundwater level and soil water content at various depths near the stream are recorded. Recently, large-scale soil moisture monitoring efforts have been introduced with the installation of two cosmic-ray neutron sensors for soil moisture monitoring. The datasets consist of observed variables (e.g. measured precipitation, air temperature, stream discharge, and soil moisture) and are available online for public use. The cross-seasonal, open access datasets at this small-scale agricultural catchment will benefit not only hydrologists but also local farmers.  相似文献   

15.
  相似文献   

16.
Uruguay has encouraged the development of the forestry sector since 1989. As a member of the Montreal Process, the country has followed a set of criteria and indicators for the Sustainable Forest Management. The aim of this paper is to describe the studies carried out in a large basin of 2097 km2, located in an area of humid subtropical climate and 1300 mm of long‐term mean annual rainfall, where the conversion of natural grasslands to forests increased up to 540 km2 during the last 15 years. Using data from daily rainfall and streamflow, the study analyses the effects of afforestation on the runoff and water loss. The analysis comprises hydrographs resulting from comparable rainfall events and annual and seasonal streamflow and water loss behaviour, both before afforestation (1975–1993) and during the afforestation period (1994–2008). A statistically significant reduction of runoff volumes (33–43%) and peak flows (59–65%) were identified on storm hydrographs. The annual and seasonal streamflow also showed diminishing tendencies due to the forestry development, whereas the water loss increases. The annual streamflow decreased between 8·2 and 36·5% depending on the annual rainfall totals. The streamflow reduction was higher during spring and summer (25·2–38·4%) and smaller during autumn and winter (15–20·3%). The water loss is expected to increase by 98 mm for the long‐term mean annual rainfall. The resulting information is a valuable input for the Integrated Water Resources Management of the Negro river basin located downstream, where hydroelectric power, rice irrigation and forestry development are supported. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

Streamflow in the Himalayan rivers is generated from rainfall, snow and ice. The distribution of runoff produced from these sources is such that the streamflow may be observed in these rivers throughout the year, i.e. they are perennial in nature. Snow and glacier melt runoff contributes substantially to the annual flows of these rivers and its estimation is required for the planning, development and management of the water resources of this region. The average contribution of snow and glacier melt runoff in the annual flows of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam has been determined. Keeping in view the availability of data for the study basin, a water balance approach was used and a water budget period of 10 years (October 1986-September 1996) was considered for the analysis. The rainfall input to the study basin over the water budget period was computed from isohyets using rainfall data of 10 stations located at different elevations in the basin. The total volume of flow for the same period was computed using observed flow data of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam. A relationship between temperature and evaporation was developed and used to estimate the evapotranspiration losses. The snow-covered area, and its depletion with time, was determined using satellite data. It was found that the average contribution of snow and glacier runoff in the annual flow of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam is about 59%, the remaining 41% being from rain.  相似文献   

18.
A thorough understanding of the complex response of hydrologic processes to latent factors is of great significance for regional soil erosion and water resources management. However, what kind of mediation effect exists between hydrologic processes and latent factors is not yet clear, especially in heterogeneous karst regions. In this study, the elasticity coefficient method and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) were used to investigate the mechanism of latent factors on hydrologic processes in karst basins and to explore the mediation effect between latent factors and hydrologic processes. The results show that the runoff of Yeji River Basin decreased during 1997–2004, but increased or stabilized since 2005. On the monthly scale, the runoff in July and December showed an ‘inverted V-shaped’ change. Both elasticity coefficient method and PLS-SEM showed that climate change contributed the most to runoff (direct effect accounted for 37.94% ~ 61.41%). In PLS-SEM, the total effect sizes of latent factors on runoff were as follows: climate change (0.751 ~ 0.963) > vegetation (0.296 ~ 0.740) > karst characteristics factors (KCF) (−0.454 ~ −0.563) > human activities (−0.036 ~ −0.528) > land use and cover change (LUCC) (−0.036 ~ −0.205). In the typical karst basin, two mediation pathways have been determined: human activities-vegetation/LUCC-runoff, where vegetation and LUCC had a mediation effect of relationships between human activities and runoff; climate change-KCF-runoff, where KCF had a mediation effect of relationships between climate change and runoff. Moreover, PLS-SEM is a preferred method to decouple the complex responses of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins to climate change and human activities than the elasticity coefficient method. This study conducted further research and exploration on the mechanism of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins, and provided valuable theoretical references for grassroots water managers to cope with water resources management under the context of future climate change.  相似文献   

19.
  相似文献   

20.
Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, these effects are quantified using three methods, namely, multi‐regression, hydrologic sensitivity analysis, and hydrologic model simulation. A conceptual framework is defined to separate the effects. As an example, the change in annual runoff from the semiarid Laohahe basin (18 112 km2) in northern China was investigated. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt test, and precipitation‐runoff double cumulative curve method were adopted to identify the trends and change‐points in the annual runoff from 1964 to 2008 by first dividing the long‐term runoff series into a natural period (1964–1979) and a human‐induced period (1980–2008). Then the three quantifying methods were calibrated and calculated, and they provided consistent estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the human‐induced period. In 1980–2008, human activities were the main factors that reduced runoff with contributions of 89–93%, while the reduction percentages due to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration only ranged from 7 to 11%. For the various effects at different durations, human activities were the main reasons runoff decreased during the two drier periods of 1980–1989 and 2000–2008. Increased runoff during the wetter period of 1990–1999 is mainly attributed to climate variability. This study quantitatively separates the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can serve as a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号