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1.
This study was conducted under the USDA‐Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in the Cheney Lake watershed in south‐central Kansas. The Cheney Lake watershed has been identified as ‘impaired waters’ under Section 303(d) of the Federal Clean Water Act for sediments and total phosphorus. The USDA‐CEAP seeks to quantify environmental benefits of conservation programmes on water quality by monitoring and modelling. Two of the most widely used USDA watershed‐scale models are Annualized AGricultural Non‐Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The objectives of this study were to compare hydrology, sediment, and total phosphorus simulation results from AnnAGNPS and SWAT in separate calibration and validation watersheds. Models were calibrated in Red Rock Creek watershed and validated in Goose Creek watershed, both sub‐watersheds of the Cheney Lake watershed. Forty‐five months (January 1997 to September 2000) of monthly measured flow and water quality data were used to evaluate the two models. Both models generally provided from fair to very good correlation and model efficiency for simulating surface runoff and sediment yield during calibration and validation (correlation coefficient; R2, from 0·50 to 0·89, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index, E, from 0·47 to 0·73, root mean square error, RMSE, from 0·25 to 0·45 m3 s?1 for flow, from 158 to 312 Mg for sediment yield). Total phosphorus predictions from calibration and validation of SWAT indicated good correlation and model efficiency (R2 from 0·60 to 0·70, E from 0·63 to 0·68) while total phosphorus predictions from validation of AnnAGNPS were from unsatisfactory to very good (R2 from 0·60 to 0·77, E from ? 2·38 to 0·32). The root mean square error–observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) was estimated as excellent (from 0·08 to 0·25) for the all model simulated parameters during the calibration and validation study. The percentage bias (PBIAS) of the model simulated parameters varied from unsatisfactory to excellent (from 128 to 3). This study determined SWAT to be the most appropriate model for this watershed based on calibration and validation results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Most semi‐distributed watershed water quality models divide the watershed into hydrologic response units (HRU) with no flow among them. This is problematic when watersheds are delineated to include variable source areas (VSAs) because it is the lateral flows from upslope areas to downslope areas that generate VSAs. Although hydrologic modellers have often successfully calibrated these types of models, there can still be considerable uncertainty in model results. In this paper, a topographic‐index‐based method is described and tested to distribute effective soil water holding capacity among HRUs, which can be subsequently adjusted using the watershed baseflow coefficient. The method is tested using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that simulates VSA runoff and is applied to two watersheds: a New York State (NYS) watershed, and one in the head waters of the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) in Ethiopia. Daily streamflow predicted using effective soil water storage capacities based only on the topographic index were reassuringly accurate in both the NYS watershed (daily Nash Sutcliffe (E) = 0·73) and in the BNB (E = 0·70). Using the baseflow coefficient to adjust the effective soil water storage capacity only slightly improved streamflow predictions in NYS (E = 0·75) but substantially improved the BNB predictions (E = 0·80). By comparison, the standard SWAT model, which uses the traditional look‐up tables to determine a runoff curve number, performed considerably less accurately in un‐calibrated form (E = 0·51 for NYS and E = 0·45 for BNB), but improved substantially when explicitly calibrated to streamflow measurements (E = 0·76 for NYS and E = 0·67 for the BNB). The calibration method presented here provides a parsimonious, systematic approach to using established models in VSA watersheds that reduces the ambiguity inherent in model calibration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
A cell‐based long‐term hydrological model (CELTHYM) that can be integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) was developed to predict continuous stream flow from small agricultural watersheds. The CELTHYM uses a cell‐by‐cell soil moisture balance approach. For surface runoff estimation, the curve number technique considering soil moisture on a daily basis was used, and release rate was used to estimate baseflow. Evapotranspiration was computed using the FAO modified Penman equation that considered land‐use‐based crop coefficients, soil moisture and the influence of topography on radiation. A rice paddy field water budget model was also adapted for the specific application of the model to East Asia. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted to obtain operational information about the model calibration parameters. The CELTHYM was calibrated and verified with measured runoff data from the WS#1 and WS#3 watersheds of the Seoul National University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, in Hwaseong County, Kyounggi Province, South Korea. The WS#1 watershed is comprised of about 35·4% rice paddy fields and 42·3% forest, whereas the WS#3 watershed is about 85·0% forest and 11·5% rice paddy fields. The CELTHYM was calibrated for the parameter release rate, K, and soil moisture storage coefficient, STC, and results were compared with the measured runoff data for 1986. The validation results for WS#1 considering all daily stream flow were poor with R2, E2 and RMSE having values of 0·40, ?6·63 and 9·69 (mm), respectively, but validation results for days without rainfall were statistically significant (R2 = 0·66). Results for WS#3 showed good agreement with observed data for all days, and R2, E2 and RMSE were 0·92, 0·91 and 2·23 (mm), respectively, suggesting potential for CELTHYM application to other watersheds. The direct runoff and water balance components for watershed WS#1 with significant areas of paddy fields did not perform well, suggesting that additional study of these components is needed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The C factor, representing the impact of plant and ground cover on soil loss, is one of the important factors of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model sediment yield. The daily update of C factors in SWAT was originally determined by land use types and plant growth cycles. This does not reflect the spatial variation of C values that exists within a large land use area. We present a new approach to integrate remotely sensed C factors into SWAT for highlighting the effect of detailed vegetative cover data on soil erosion and sediment yield. First, the C factor was estimated using the abundance of ground components extracted from remote sensing images. Then, the gridding data of the C factor were aggregated to hydrological response units (HRUs), instead of to land use units of SWAT. In the end, the C factor values in HRUs were integrated into SWAT to predict sediment yield by modifying the ysed subroutine. This substitution work not only increases the spatial variation of the C factor in SWAT, but also makes it possible to utilize other sources of C databases rather than those from the United States. The demonstration in the Dage basin shows that the modified SWAT produces reasonable results in water flow simulation and sediment yield prediction using remotely sensed C values. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (ENS) and R2 for surface runoff range from 0·69 to 0·77 and 0·73 to 0·87, respectively. The coefficients ENS and R2 for sediment yield were generally above 0·70 and 0·60, respectively. The soil erosion risk map based on sediment yield prediction at the HRU level illustrates instructive details on spatial distribution of soil loss. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):513-525
Abstract

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was calibrated and evaluated for estimation of runoff and sediment yield in the data-scarce conditions of the Indian Himalaya. The inputs derived from remote sensing and geographic information system technologies were combined in the WEPP modelling system to simulate surface runoff and sediment yield from the hilly Kaneli watershed. The model parameters were calibrated using measured data on runoff volumes and sediment yield. The calibrated model was validated by producing the monthly runoff and sediment yield simulations and comparing them with data that were not used in calibration. The model was also used to make surface runoff and sediment yield simulations for each of the individual watershed elements, comprising 18 hillslopes and seven channels, and the detailed monthly results for each are presented. Although, no field data on hillslope runoff and sediment yield are currently available for the validation of distributed results produced by the model, the present investigation has demonstrated clearly the applicability of the WEPP model in predicting hydrological variables in a data-scarce situation.  相似文献   

6.
Z. X. Xu  J. P. Pang  C. M. Liu  J. Y. Li 《水文研究》2009,23(25):3619-3630
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the transport of runoff and sediment into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing in this study. The main objective was to validate the performance of SWAT and the feasibility of using this model as a simulator of runoff and sediment transport processes at a catchment scale in arid and semi‐arid area in North China, and related processes affecting water quantity and soil erosion in the catchment were simulated. The investigation was conducted using a 6‐year historical streamflow and sediment record from 1986 to 1991; the data from 1986 to 1988 was used for calibration and that from 1989 to 1991 for validation. The SWAT generally performs well and could accurately simulate both daily and monthly runoff and sediment yield. The simulated daily and monthly runoff matched the observed values satisfactorily, with a Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of greater than 0·6, 0·9 and a coefficient of determination 0·75, 0·9 at two outlet stations (Xiahui and Zhangjiafen stations) during calibration. These values were 0·6, 0·85 and 0·6, 0·9 during validation. For sediment simulation, the efficiency is lower than that for runoff. Even so, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient and coefficient of determination were greater than 0·48 and 0·6 for monthly sediment yield during calibration, and these values were greater than 0·84 and 0·95 during validation. Sensitivity analysis shows that sensitive parameters for the simulation of discharge and sediment yield include curve number, base flow alpha factor, soil evaporation compensation factor, soil available water capacity, soil profile depth, surface flow lag time and channel re‐entrained linear parameter, etc. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Distributed watershed models are beneficial tools for the assessment of management practices on runoff and water‐induced erosion. This paper evaluates, by application to an experimental watershed, two promising distributed watershed‐scale sediment models in detail: the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS‐2) model and the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The physics behind each model are to some extent similar, though they have different watershed conceptualizations. KINEROS‐2 was calibrated using three rainfall events and validated over four separate rainfall events. Parameters estimated by this calibration process were adapted to GSSHA. With these parameters, GSSHA generated larger and retarded flow hydrographs. A 30% reduction in both plane and channel roughness in GSSHA along with the assumption of Green‐Ampt conductivity KG‐A = Ks, where Ks is the saturated conductivity, resulted in almost identical hydrographs. Sediment parameters not common in both models were calibrated independently of KINEROS‐2. A comparative discussion of simulation results is presented. Even though GSSHA's flow component slightly overperformed KINEROS‐2, the latter outperformed GSSHA in simulations for sediment transport. In spite of the fact that KINEROS‐2 is not geared toward continuous‐time simulations, simulations performed with both models over a 1 month period generated comparable results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Check dam has become an efficient measure to control sediment transport and soil erosion in the gully areas. It plays an important role in soil erosion control and agricultural production in the Loess Plateau. Due to construction of numerous check dams, it is necessary to assess the impact of check dams on runoff and sediment load at basin scale. This study applied the SWAT model to simulate monthly runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Twenty key check dams are coupled to the SWAT model simulation in the calibration (1978–1984) and validation period (1985–1989). The determination coefficient (R 2) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) were 0.94 and 0.83 for runoff, and 0.82 and 0.81 for sediment load in the calibration period, respectively. During the validation period, the R 2 and NS were 0.93 and 0.80 for runoff, and 0.90 and 0.83 for sediment load respectively. The results showed that the model simulation was acceptable. Subsequently, the calibrated model was used to examine the effect of check dams on runoff and sediment load between 1990 and 2012. It showed that the increasing check dams contributed 24.8 and 27.7% to the decrease of annual runoff and sediment load during the period of 1990–1999, whereas it reached up to 65.2% for runoff decline and 78.3% for sediment load reduction within 2000–2012. Overall, this study illustrated a case study of the dominant role of check dams on variation of runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan basin.  相似文献   

9.
This study investigates critical run‐off and sediment production sources in a forested Kasilian watershed located in northern Iran. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model was set up to simulate the run‐off and sediment yields. WEPP was calibrated and validated against measured rainfall–run‐off–sediment data. Results showed that simulated run‐off and sediment yields of the watershed were in agreement with the measured data for the calibration and validation periods. While low and medium values of run‐off and sediment yields were adequately simulated by the WEPP model, high run‐off and sediment yield values were underestimated. Performance of the model was evaluated as very good and satisfactory during the calibration and validation stages, respectively. Total soil erosion and sediment load of the study watershed during the study period were determined to be 10 108 t yr?1 and 8735 t yr?1, respectively. The northern areas of the watershed with dry farming were identified as the critical erosion prone zones. To prioritize the subwatersheds based on their contribution to the run‐off and sediment production at the watershed's main outlet, unit response approach (URA) was applied. In this regard, subwatersheds close to the main outlet were found to have the highest contribution to sediment yield of the whole watershed. Results indicated that depending on the objective of land and water conservation practices, particularly, for controlling sediment yield at the main outlet, critical areas for implementing the best management practices may be identified through conjunctive application of WEPP and URA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Long‐term erosion monitoring data in the Ethiopian highlands are only available from the Soil Conservation Research Program (SCRP) watersheds including the Anjeni watershed. The 113 ha Anjeni watershed was established in 1984 and fanya juu terraces were installed in 1986. Runoff and erosion data are available from three different plot sizes and at the watershed outlet. The objective of this study was to investigate how erosion processes and sediment rating parameters vary with plot size and the progression of the rainy monsoon phase. We analyzed runoff and sediment loss data from 40 plots and the watershed outlet. The dataset included erosion data from 24 newly constructed plots (3 m length) during the rainy monsoon phase of 2012 and 2013, and 16 long‐term plots (with 12, 16, 22, and 24% slopes and 3, 15 and 30 m lengths) and the watershed outlet during the period between 1986 to 1990. Sediment concentration (C) was fitted to runoff (Q) using a power regression equation (C = aQb). Sediment concentration and yield increased with increasing plot length from 3 m to 15 m, but sediment yield decreased as plot length increased to 30 m.The coefficients (a and b) were affected by plot size and the progression of the rainy monsoon phase. As plot size increases, the a value increased, while the b value decreased. Greater a values were observed during the beginning of the monsoon phase, while values of b were greater towards the end of the monsoon phase. Overall findings suggest that erosion from cultivated fields is primarily controlled by transport limitations at the beginning of the monsoon phase, while towards the end of the monsoon phase, as surface covers emerge, sediment availability will be reduced, and thus sediment source would be a limitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
For interrill erosion, raindrop‐induced detachment and transport of sediment by rainfall‐disturbed sheet flow are the predominant processes, while detachment by sheet flow and transport by raindrop impact are negligible. In general, interrill subprocesses are inter‐actively affected by rainfall, soil and surface properties. The objective of this work was to study the relationships among interrill runoff and sediment loss and some selected para‐meters, for cultivated soils in central Greece, and also the development of a formula for predicting single storm sediment delivery. Runoff and soil loss measurement field experiments have been conducted for a 3·5‐year period, under natural storms. The soils studied were developed on Tertiary calcareous materials and Quaternary alluvial deposits and were textured from sandy loam to clay. The second group of soils showed greater susceptibility to sealing and erosion than the first group. Single storm sediment loss was mainly affected by rain and runoff erosivity, being significantly correlated with rain kinetic energy (r = 0·64***), its maximum 30‐minute intensity (r = 0·64***) and runoff amount (r = 0·56***). Runoff had the greatest correlation with rain kinetic energy (r = 0·64***). A complementary effect on soil loss was detected between rain kinetic energy and its maximum 30‐minute intensity. The same was true for rain kinetic energy and topsoil aggregate instability, on surface seal formation and thus on infiltration characteristics and overland flow rate. Empirical analysis showed that the following formula can be used for the successful prediction of sediment delivery (Di): Di = 0·638βEI30tan(θ) (R2 = 0·893***), where β is a topsoil aggregate instability index, E the rain kinetic energy, I30 the maximum 30‐minute rain intensity and θ the slope angle. It describes soil erodibility using a topsoil aggregate instability index, which can be determined easily by a simple laboratory technique, and runoff through the product of this index and rain kinetic energy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The spatial scale effect on sediment concentration in runoff has received little attention despite numerous studies on sediment yield or sediment delivery ratio in the context of multiple spatial scales. We have addressed this issue for hilly areas of the Loess Plateau, north China where fluvial processes are mainly dominated by hyperconcentrated flows. The data on 717 flow events observed at 17 gauging stations and two runoff experimental plots, all located in the 3906 km2 Dalihe watershed, are presented. The combination of the downstream scour of hyperconcentrated flows and the downstream dilution, which is mainly caused by the base flow and is strengthened as a result of the strong patchy storms, determines the spatial change of sediment concentration in runoff during flood events. At the watershed scale, the scouring effect takes predominance first but is subordinate to the downstream dilution with a further increase in spatial scale. As a result, the event mean sediment concentration first increases following a power function with drainage basin area and then declines at the drainage basin area of about 700 km2. The power function in combination with the proportional model of the runoff‐sediment yield relationship we proposed before was used to establish the sediment‐yield model, which is neither the physical‐based model nor the regression model. This model, with only two variables (runoff depth and drainage basin area) and two parameters, can provide fairly accurate prediction of event sediment yield with model efficiency over 0·95 if small events with runoff depth lower than 1 mm are excluded. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Despite widespread bench‐terracing, stream sediment yields from agricultural hillsides in upland West Java remain high. We studied the causes of this lack of effect by combining measurements at different spatial scales using an erosion process model. Event runoff and sediment yield from two 4‐ha terraced hillside subcatchments were measured and field surveys of land use, bench‐terrace geometry and storage of sediment in the drainage network were conducted for two consecutive years. Runoff was 3·0–3·9% of rainfall and sediment yield was 11–30 t ha−1 yr−1 for different years, subcatchments and calculation techniques. Sediment storage changes in the subcatchment drainage network were less than 2 t ha−1, whereas an additional 0·3–1·5 t ha−1 was stored in the gully between the subcatchment flumes and the main stream. This suggests mean annual sediment delivery ratios of 86–125%, or 80–104% if this additional storage is included. The Terrace Erosion and Sediment Transport (TEST) model developed and validated for the studied environment was parameterized using erosion plot studies, land use surveys and digital terrain analysis to simulate runoff and sediment generation on the terraced hillsides. This resulted in over‐estimates of runoff and under‐estimates of runoff sediment concentration. Relatively poor model performance was attributed to sample bias in the six erosion plots used for model calibration and unaccounted covariance between important terrain attributes such as slope, infiltration capacity, soil conservation works and vegetation cover. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The model presented in the complementary document entitled, Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model I: parameter application and analysis is analysed, calibrated and validated in this paper. The accuracy of simulated hydrographs is analysed by means of the efficiency defined by Nash and Sutcliffe. The sensitivity of the influence of five parameters on the behaviour of the model developed is analysed. Two different calibration and validation processes of Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model are performed in Aixola watershed. Twelve events have been selected for calibrations and 25 for validations. With the first calibration and validation process, the model parameters are set by assigning the medians' values of the distributions obtained by means of the optimum results. The second process is performed by calibrating the most determinant parameter in the adjustment, which is the one that indicates the proportion of infiltrated water that is retained and does not flow; this is done with an empirical formulation depending on the event characteristics. Subsequently, the obtained results are validated. This last process has achieved very good adjustments in both calibrated and validated events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Runoff estimations based on the standard USDA–NRCS curve number (CN) table without calibration have a tendency to give inaccurate results when the CN values are applied in South Korea which has many high slope watersheds and that has a continental monsoon climate. Particularly for the design flood estimation, accurately calibrated CN values are required because the estimated peak flow is very sensitive to the selection of CN. However, the lack of flood data makes it difficult to calibrate and assign runoff CNs to Korean watersheds. Even if sufficient data are available to estimate CN values, it is also difficult to obtain the direct flows by separating base flows from total runoff hydrographs due to the temporal irregularity of rainfall events and the resulting complex pattern of runoff. Therefore, an alternative method for estimating CNs needs to be developed to overcome these issues. The purpose of this study is to present a method for estimating runoff CNs using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model which can take into account watershed heterogeneities such as climate conditions, land use and soil types. The proposed CN estimation method uses the simulated flow data by SWAT instead of using measured flow data. This method has advantages in estimating CN values spatially for each subbasin division considering watershed characteristics. The use of daily data can reduce the sensitivity to the abnormality that is commonly involved in flow data with a small time scale. The SWAT‐based CN estimation method, combined with the asymptotic CN method, was applied to the Chungju dam watershed in South Korea. A regression equation was then developed from this approach, which was used to estimate CN values that decrease exponentially as rainfall amounts increase and that converge to 60·6 and 79·4 without and with considering subsurface lateral flow, respectively. Furthermore, the CN values for the antecedent moisture conditions were determined using the probabilistic approach. The CN associated with the 50% probability for the Chungju dam watershed is 87·8 which can be taken to be representative of antecedent moisture condition (AMC) II. The CNI and CNIII associated with 90% and 10% probabilities are 78·9 and 94·1, respectively. The estimated CNII = 87·8 differs markedly from the geographic information system (GIS)‐based CN 65·0, which implies that the standard USDA–NRCS CN method should be calibrated to the studied area of interest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
An adequately tested soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied to the runoff and sediment yield of a small agricultural watershed in eastern India using generated rainfall. The capability of the model for generating rainfall was evaluated for a period of 18 years (1981–1998). The watershed and subwatershed boundaries, drainage networks, slope, soil series and texture maps were generated using a geographical information system (GIS). A supervised classification method was used for land‐use/cover classification from satellite imageries. Model simulated monthly rainfall for the period of 18 years was compared with observations. Simulated monthly rainfall, runoff and sediment yield values for the monsoon season of 8 years (1991–1998) were also compared with their observed values. In general monthly average rainfall predicted by the model was in close agreement with the observed monthly average values. Also, simulated monthly average values of surface runoff and sediment yield using generated rainfall compared well with observed values during the monsoon season of the years 1991–1998. Results of this study revealed that the SWAT model can generate monthly average rainfall satisfactorily and thereby can produce monthly average values of surface runoff and sediment yield close to the observed values. Therefore, it can be concluded that the SWAT model could be used for developing a multiple year management plan for the critical erosion prone areas of a small watershed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
The quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by internal and external drivers. Watershed models have become essential tools to understand the behaviour of a catchment under dynamic processes. In this study, a physically based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool was used to understand the hydrologic behaviour of the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy. The model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963–1970 and 1971–1978, respectively. Eighteen parameters were evaluated, and the model showed high relative sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters than the surface flow parameters. An analysis of annual hydrological water balance was performed for the entire upper Tiber watershed and selected subbasins. The overall behaviour of the watershed was represented by three categories of parameters governing surface flow, subsurface flow and whole basin response. The base flow contribution has shown that 60% of the streamflow is from shallow aquifer in the subbasins. The model evaluation statistics that evaluate the agreement between the simulated and the observed streamflow at the outlet of a watershed and other three different subbasins has shown a coefficient of determination (R2) from 0.68 to 0.81 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) between 0.51 and 0.8 for the validation period. The components of the hydrologic cycle showed variation for dry and wet periods within the watershed for the same parameter sets. On the basis of the calibrated parameters, the model can be used for the prediction of the impact of climate and land use changes and water resources planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Prem B. Parajuli 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3785-3797
The climatic processes such as changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration can intensify the effects on water resources. An assessment of the effects of long‐term climate change on water resources is essential to the development of water quality improvement programs. This study was conducted in the Upper Pearl River Watershed (UPRW) in east‐central Mississippi to assess the effects of long‐term potential future climate change on average mean monthly stream flow from the five spatially distributed U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage stations in the UPRW using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model was calibrated (January 1981 to December 1994) and validated (January 1995 to September 2008) using monthly measured stream flow data. The calibrated and validated model determined good to very good performance for stream flow prediction (R2 and E from 0·60 to 0·86) between measured and predicted stream flow values. The root mean square error values (from 14 to 37 m3 s?1) were estimated at similar levels of errors during model calibration and validation. The results showed that long‐term (50 years) average monthly stream flow sensitivity due to climate change effects was found the greatest as a result of percentage change in the precipitation followed by carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature. The long‐term model simulation scenarios as compared with the base scenario for all five spatially distributed USGS gage stations in the UPRW estimated an average monthly stream flow decrease (from 54 to 67%) and average monthly stream flow increase (from 67 to 79%) depending on the spatial characteristics of the USGS gage stations. Overall, the results indicate that the UPRW hydrology is very sensitive to potential future climate changes and that these changes could stimulate increased streamflow generation from the watershed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
In this study, we proposed a new approach for linking event sediment sources to downstream sediment transport in a watershed in central New York. This approach is based on a new concept of spatial scale, sub‐watershed area (SWA), defined as a sub‐watershed within which all eroded soils are transported out without deposition during a hydrological event. Using (rainfall) event data collected between July and November, 2007 from several SWAs of the studied watershed, we developed an empirical equation that has one independent variable, mean SWA slope. This equation was then used to determine event‐averaged unit soil erosion rate, QS/A, (in kg/km2/hr) for all SWAs in the studied watershed and calculate event‐averaged gross erosion Eea (in kg/hr). The event gross erosion Et (in kilograms) was subsequently computed as the product of Eea and the mean event duration, T (in hours) determined using event hydrographs at the outlet of the studied watershed. Next, we developed two linear sediment rating curves (SRCs) for small and big events based on the event data obtained at the watershed outlet. These SRCs, together with T, allowed us to determine event sediment yield SYe (in kilograms) for all events during the study period. By comparing Et with SYe, developing empirical equations (i) between Et and SYe and (ii) for event sediment delivery ratio, respectively, we revealed the event dynamic processes connecting sediment sources and downstream sediment transport. During small events, sediment transport in streams was at capacity and dominated by the deposition process, whereas during big events, it was below capacity and controlled by the erosion process. The key of applying this approach to other watersheds is establishing their empirical equations for QS/A and appropriately determining their numbers of SWAs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Despite the high risk of erosion in olive orchards located in mountainous areas in Spain, little research has been carried out to account for the complexity and interaction of the natural processes of runoff and soil erosion on the catchment scale or small catchment scale. In this study, a microcatchment of 6·7 ha in a mountainous area under no‐tillage farming with bare soil was set up to record runoff and sediment. Soil erosion and runoff patterns were monitored over a two‐year period. Totally, 22 events were observed. The data were analysed, and then used to calibrate the AnnAGNPS model, which allowed us to complete the data period and describe the hydrological and erosive behaviour on a monthly and annual basis. A high variability in catchment responses was observed, due to differences in the storms and to the effect of the surface soil moisture content. Maximum intensities of 10 and 30 min determined the final runoff values while the total sediment loads were dependent on the rainfall depth. The impact of management on the reduction of porosity can explain the relationship between runoff and intensity in the microcatchment. However, the impact of the spatial scale meant that the transport of sediment required substantial rainfall depths to ensure a continuous flow from the hillslopes. The results of the calibration (E >0·60 and r >0·75) on the event and monthly scale confirmed the applicability of AnnAGNPS to predict runoff and erosion in the microcatchment. The predicted average runoff coefficient was 3·3% for the study period and the total average sediment loads, 1·3 Mg/ha/yr. Despite these low values, the model simulation showed that much larger runoff coefficients and soil losses can be expected for periods with several consecutive years in which the annual rainfall depth was over 500 mm. The use of cover is recommended to prevent the high levels of erosion associated with these conditions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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