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1.
A need for more accurate flood inundation maps has recently arisen because of the increasing frequency and extremity of flood events. The accuracy of flood inundation maps is determined by the uncertainty propagated from all of the variables involved in the overall process of flood inundation modelling. Despite our advanced understanding of flood progression, it is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty because of the constraints involving cost, time, knowledge, and technology. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis in flood inundation mapping can provide useful information for flood risk management. The twin objectives of this study were firstly to estimate the propagated uncertainty rates of key variables in flood inundation mapping by using the first‐order approximation method and secondly to evaluate the relative sensitivities of the model variables by using the Hornberger–Spear–Young (HSY) method. Monte Carlo simulations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System and triangle‐based interpolation were performed to investigate the uncertainty arising from discharge, topography, and Manning's n in the East Fork of the White River near Seymour, Indiana, and in Strouds Creek in Orange County, North Carolina. We found that the uncertainty of a single variable is propagated differently to the flood inundation area depending on the effects of other variables in the overall process. The uncertainty was linearly/nonlinearly propagated corresponding to valley shapes of the reaches. In addition, the HSY sensitivity analysis revealed the topography of Seymour reach and the discharge of Strouds Creek to be major contributors to the change of flood inundation area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
A modelling framework for the quick estimate of flood inundation and the resultant damages is developed in this paper. The model, called the flood economic impact analysis system (FEIAS), can be applied to a river reach of any hydrogeological river basin. For the development of the integrated modelling framework, three models were employed: (1) a modelling scheme based on the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN model that was developed for any geomorphological river basin, (2) a river flow/floodplain model, and (3) a flood loss estimation model. The first sub‐model of the flood economic impact analysis system simulates the hydrological processes for extended periods of time, and its output is used as input to a second component, the river/floodplain model. The hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) is the river/floodplain model employed in this study. The simulated flood parameters from the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) are passed, at the end of each time step, to a third component, the flood loss model for the estimation of flood damage. In the present work, emphasis was given to the seasonal variation of Manning's coefficient (n), which is an important parameter for the determination of the flood inundation in hydraulic modelling. High values of Manning's coefficient for a channel indicate high flow resistance. The riparian vegetation can have a large impact on channel resistance. The modelling framework developed in this paper was used to investigate the role of riparian vegetation in reducing flood damage. Moreover, it was used to investigate the influence of cutting riparian vegetation scenarios on the flow characteristics. The proposed framework was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece, and was tested and validated with historical data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Palaeoflood reconstructions based on stage evidence are typically conducted in data‐poor field settings. Few opportunities exist to calibrate the hydraulic models used to estimate discharge from this evidence. Consequently, an important hydraulic model parameter, the roughness coefficient (e.g. Manning's n), is typically estimated by a range of approximate techniques, such as ‘visual estimation’ and semi‐empirical equations. These techniques contribute uncertainty to resulting discharge estimates, especially where the study reach exhibits sensitivity in the discharge–Manning's n relation. We study this uncertainty within a hydraulic model for a large flood of known discharge on the Mae Chaem River, northern Thailand. Comparison of the ‘calibrated’ Manning's n with that obtained from semi‐empirical equations indicates that these underestimate roughness. Substantial roughness elements in the extra‐channel zone, inundated during large events, contribute significant additional sources of flow resistance that are captured neither by the semi‐empirical equations, nor by existing models predicting stage–roughness variations. This bedrock channel exhibits a complex discharge–Manning's n relation, and reliable estimates of the former are dependent upon realistic assignment of the latter. Our study demonstrates that a large recent flood can provide a valuable opportunity to constrain this parameter, and this is illustrated when we model a palaeoflood event in the same reach, and subsequently examine the magnitude–return period consequences of discharge uncertainty within a flood frequency analysis, which contributes its own source of uncertainty. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
D. Yu  S. N. Lane 《水文研究》2006,20(7):1567-1583
This paper develops and tests a sub‐grid‐scale wetting and drying correction for use with two‐dimensional diffusion‐wave models of urban flood inundation. The method recognizes explicitly that representations of sub‐grid‐scale topography using roughness parameters will provide an inadequate representation of the effects of structural elements on the floodplain (e.g. buildings, walls), as such elements not only act as momentum sinks, but also have mass blockage effects. The latter may dominate, especially in structurally complex urban areas. The approach developed uses high‐resolution topographic data to develop explicit parameterization of sub‐grid‐scale topographic variability to represent both the volume of a grid cell that can be occupied by the flow and the effect of that variability upon the timing and direction of the lateral fluxes. This approach is found to give significantly better prediction of fluvial flood inundation in urban areas than traditional calibration of sub‐grid‐scale effects using Manning's n. In particular, it simultaneously reduces the need to use exceptionally high values of n to represent the effects of using a coarser mesh process representation and increases the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in n. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The use of spatial patterns of flood inundation (often obtained from remotely sensed imagery) to calibrate flood inundation models has been widespread over the last 15 years. Model calibration is most often achieved by employing one or even several performance measures derived from the well‐known confusion matrix based on a binary classification of flooding. However, relatively early on, it has been recognized that the use of commonly reported performance measures for calibrating flood inundation models (such as the F measure) is hampered because the calibration procedure commonly utilizes only one possible solution of a wet/dry classification of a remote sensing image [most often acquired by a synthetic aperture radar (SAR)] to calibrate or validate models and are biased towards either over‐prediction or under‐prediction of flooding. Despite the call in several studies for an alternative statistic, to this date, very few, if any, unbiased performance measure based on the confusion matrix has been proposed for flood model calibration/validation studies. In this paper, we employ a robust statistical measure that operates in the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) space and allows automated model calibration with high identifiability of the best model parameter set but without the need of a classification of the SAR image. The ROC‐based method for flood model calibration is demonstrated using two different flood event test cases with flood models of varying degree of complexity and boundary conditions with varying degree of accuracy. Verification of the calibration results and optional SAR classification is successfully performed with independent observations of the events. We believe that this proposed alternative approach to flood model calibration using spatial patterns of flood inundation should be employed instead of performance measures commonly used in conjunction with a binary flood map. © 2013 California Institute of Technology. Hydrological Processes © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
We compare two approaches to modelling floodplain inundation: a raster‐based approach, which uses a relatively simple process representation, with channel flows being resolved separately from the floodplain using either a kinematic or diffusive wave approximation, and a finite‐element hydraulic model aiming to solve the full two‐dimensional shallow‐water equations. A flood event on a short (c. 4 km) reach of the upper River Thames in the UK is simulated, the models being validated against inundation extent as determined from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. The unconstrained friction parameters are found through a calibration procedure, where a measure of fit between predicted and observed shorelines is maximized. The raster and finite‐element models offer similar levels of performance, both classifying approximately 84% of the model domain correctly, compared with 65% for a simple planar prediction of water surface elevation. Further discrimination between models is not possible given the errors in the validation data. The simple raster‐based model is shown to have considerable advantages in terms of producing a straightforward calibration process, and being robust with respect to channel specification. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The Manning equation is one of the most widely used formulae for calculating the velocity of shallow overland flow in hydrological and erosion models. Precise estimation of the Manning's friction coefficient (n) is critical to determining overland flow and soil erosion processes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the effects of sediment load on Manning's n on steep slopes. This study was conducted to investigate the potential effects of sediment load on Manning's n in a flume with a fixed bed, under wide ranges of hydraulics and sediment loads. Slope gradient varied from 8·7 to 34·2%, unit flow rate from 0·66 to 5·26 × 10?3 m2 s?1, and sediment load from 0 to 6·95 kg m?1 s?1. The Reynolds number ranged from 350 to 5899. Results showed that Manning's n varied in both sediment‐free and sediment‐laden flows ranging from 0·012 to 0·055. The apparent Manning's coefficients of sediment‐laden flow were much greater than those of sediment‐free flow. The mean Manning coefficient of sediment‐laden flow was 51·27% greater than the mean value of sediment‐free flow. For sediment‐laden flow, Manning's n could be estimated with a power function of unit flow discharge and sediment content. Further studies are needed to quantify the potential effects of sediment load on the Manning's n on erodible beds and in fields. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
The finite‐difference method on rectangular meshes is widely used for time‐domain modelling of the wave equation. It is relatively easy to implement high‐order spatial discretization schemes and parallelization. Also, the method is computationally efficient. However, the use of finite elements on tetrahedral unstructured meshes is more accurate in complex geometries near sharp interfaces. We compared the standard eighth‐order finite‐difference method to fourth‐order continuous mass‐lumped finite elements in terms of accuracy and computational cost. The results show that, for simple models like a cube with constant density and velocity, the finite‐difference method outperforms the finite‐element method by at least an order of magnitude. Outside the application area of rectangular meshes, i.e., for a model with interior complexity and topography well described by tetrahedra, however, finite‐element methods are about two orders of magnitude faster than finite‐difference methods, for a given accuracy.  相似文献   

9.
Two‐dimensional (2‐D) hydraulic models are currently at the forefront of research into river flood inundation prediction. Airborne scanning laser altimetry is an important new data source that can provide such models with spatially distributed floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterization of model friction. The paper investigates how vegetation height data can be used to realize the currently unexploited potential of 2‐D flood models to specify a friction factor at each node of the finite element model mesh. The only vegetation attribute required in the estimation of floodplain node friction factors is vegetation height. Different sets of flow resistance equations are used to model channel sediment, short vegetation, and tall and intermediate vegetation. The scheme was tested in a modelling study of a flood event that occurred on the River Severn, UK, in October 1998. A synthetic aperture radar image acquired during the flood provided an observed flood extent against which to validate the predicted extent. The modelled flood extent using variable friction was found to agree with the observed extent almost everywhere within the model domain. The variable‐friction model has the considerable advantage that it makes unnecessary the unphysical fitting of floodplain and channel friction factors required in the traditional approach to model calibration. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Cellular‐based approaches for flood inundation modelling have been extensively calibrated and evaluated for the prediction of flood flows on rural river reaches. However, there has only been limited application of these approaches to urban environments, where the need for flood management is greatest. Practical application of two‐dimensional (2D) flood inundation models is often limited by computation time and processing power on standard desktop PCs when attempting to resolve flows on the high‐resolution grids necessary to replicate urban features. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of coarse grids to represent flood flows through urban environments. To examine these effects, LISFLOOD‐FP, a 2D storage cell model, is applied to hypothetical flooding scenarios in Greenfields, Glasgow. Grid resampling techniques in GIS software packages are evaluated and a bilinear gridding technique appears to provide the most accurate and physically intuitive results. A gridding method maintaining sharp elevation changes at building interfaces and neighbouring land is presented and estimates of the discretization noise associated with the coarse resolution grids suggest little improvement over current gridding methods. The variation in model results from the friction sensitivity analysis suggests a non‐stationary response to Manning's n with changing model resolution. Model results suggests that a coarse resolution model for urban applications is limited by the representation of urban media in coarse model grids. Furthermore, critical length scales related to building dimensions and building separation distances exist in urban areas that determine maximum possible grid resolutions for hydraulic models of urban flooding. Copyright ©, 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
For the appropriate management of water resources in a watershed, it is essential to calculate the time distribution of runoff for the given rainfall event. In this paper, a kinematic‐wave‐based distributed watershed model using finite element method (FEM), geographical information systems (GIS) and remote‐sensing‐based approach is presented for the runoff simulation of small watersheds. The kinematic wave equations are solved using FEM for overland and channel flow to generate runoff at the outlet of the watershed concerned. The interception loss is calculated by an empirical model based on leaf area index (LAI). The Green‐Ampt Mein Larson (GAML) model is used for the estimation of infiltration. Remotely sensed data has been used to extract land use (LU)/land cover (LC). GIS have been used to prepare finite element grid and input files such as Manning's roughness and slope. The developed overland flow model has been checked with an analytical solution for a hypothetical watershed. The model has been applied to a gauged watershed and an ungauged watershed. From the results, it is seen that the model is able to simulate the hydrographs reasonably well. A sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out with the calibrated infiltration parameters, overland flow Manning's roughness, channel flow Manning's roughness, time step and grid size. The present model is useful in predicting the hydrograph in small, ungauged watersheds. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
D. Yu  S. N. Lane 《水文研究》2006,20(7):1541-1565
High‐resolution data obtained from airborne remote sensing is increasing opportunities for representation of small‐scale structural elements (e.g. walls, buildings) in complex floodplain systems using two‐dimensional (2D) models of flood inundation. At the same time, 2D inundation models have been developed and shown to provide good predictions of flood inundation extent, with respect to both full solution of the depth‐averaged Navier–Stokes equations and simplified diffusion‐wave models. However, these models have yet to be applied extensively to urban areas. This paper applies a 2D raster‐based diffusion‐wave model to determine patterns of fluvial flood inundation in urban areas using high‐resolution topographic data and explores the effects of spatial resolution upon estimated inundation extent and flow routing process. Model response shows that even relatively small changes in model resolution have considerable effects on the predicted inundation extent and the timing of flood inundation. Timing sensitivity would be expected, given the relatively poor representation of inertial processes in a diffusion‐wave model. Sensitivity to inundation extent is more surprising, but is associated with: (1) the smoothing effect of mesh coarsening upon input topographical data; (2) poorer representation of both cell blockage and surface routing processes as the mesh is coarsened, where the flow routing is especially complex; and (3) the effects of (1) and (2) upon water levels and velocities, which in turn determine which parts of the floodplain the flow can actually travel to. It is shown that the combined effects of wetting and roughness parameters can compensate in part for a coarser mesh resolution. However, the coarser the resolution, the poorer the ability to control the inundation process, as these parameters not only affect the speed, but also the direction of wetting. Thus, high‐resolution data will need to be coupled to a more sophisticated representation of the inundation process in order to obtain effective predictions of flood inundation extent. This is explored in a companion paper. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Synchronously and accurately estimating the flood discharges and dynamic changes in the fluid density is essential for hydraulic analysis and forecasting of flash floods, as well as for risk assessment. However, such information is rare for steep mountain catchments, especially in regions that are hotspots for earthquakes. Therefore, six hydrological monitoring sites were established in the main stream and tributaries of the 78.3‐km2 Longxi River catchment, an affected region of the Wenchuan earthquake region in China. Direct real‐time monitoring equipment was installed to measure the flow depths, velocities, and fluid total pressures of the flood hydrographs. On the basis of field measurements, real‐time mean cross‐sectional velocities during the flood hydrographs could be derived from easily obtainable parameters: cross‐sectional maximum velocities and the calibrated dimensionless parameter Kh . Real‐time discharges were determined on the basis of a noncontact method to establish the effective rating curves of this mountainous stream, ranging from 1.46 to 386.34 m3/s with the root mean square errors of ≤10.22 m3/s. Compared with the traditional point‐velocity method and empirical Manning's formula, the proposed noncontact method was reliable and safe for monitoring whole flood hydrographs. Additionally, the real‐time fluid density during the flood hydrographs was calculated on the basis of the direct monitoring parameters for fluid total pressures and water depths. During the flood hydrograph, transient flow behaviour with higher fluid density generally occurred downstream during the flood peak periods when the flow was in the supercritical flow regime. The observed behaviour greatly increased the threat of damage to infrastructure and human life near the river. Thus, it is important to accurately estimate flood discharge and identify for fluid densities so that people at risk from an impending flash flood are given reliable, advanced warning.  相似文献   

14.
Two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models have been increasingly used to quantify aquatic habitat and stream processes, such as sediment transport, streambed morphological evolution, and inundation extents. Because river topography has a strong influence on predicted hydraulic conditions, 2D models require accurate and detailed bathymetric data of the stream channel and surrounding floodplains. Besides collection of mass points to construct high‐resolution three‐dimensional surfaces, bathymetries may be interpolated from cross‐sections. However, limited information is available on the effects of cross‐section spacing and the derived interpolated bathymetry on 2D model results in large river systems. Here, we investigated the effects of cross‐section spacing on flow properties simulated with 2D modeling at low, medium and high discharges in two morphologically different reaches, a simple (almost featureless with low sinuosity) and a complex (presenting pools, riffles, runs, contractions and expansions) reach of the Snake River (Idaho, USA), the tenth largest river in the United States in terms of drainage area. We compared the results from 2D models developed with complete channel bathymetry acquired with multibeam sonar data and photogrammetry, with 2D model results that were developed using interpolated topography from uniformly distributed transects. Results indicate that cross‐sections spaced equal to or greater than 2 times the average channel width (W*) smooths the bathymetry and suppresses flow structures. Conversely, models generated with cross‐sections spaced at 0.5 and 1 W* have stream flow properties, sediment mobility and spatial habitat distribution similar to those of the complete bathymetry. Furthermore, differences in flow properties between interpolated and complete topography models generally increase with discharge and with channel complexity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
《Journal of Hydrology》2006,316(1-4):13-27
A linearized approach to quantifying predictive uncertainty in a 2-D model of shallow water flow in response to uncertainty in friction parameterization is presented. The resulting uncertain finite volume (UFV) method is tested against Monte Carlo simulations for uncertain models over channel only, floodplain only and channel and floodplain meshes. The results show that the UFV model performs well in predicting mean and standard deviations of water depths, for problems with two independent Manning's n values, with standard deviations of up to 0.02 m1/3 s−1 with a mean value of 0.03 m1/3 s−1. For depth averaged velocities, mean values are well represented, but standard deviations are poorly predicted by UFV. UFV also performs well when modelling flow over an uneven fractal topography and for a distributed (11 degrees of freedom) parameterization. A computation time advantage of >50 when compared to the Monte Carlo method is observed.  相似文献   

16.
Through laboratory experiments conducted in a grass‐lined flume, the hydraulic resistance of grass is measured and quantified. For the grass examined, it is found that Manning's n value is greater than those recommended in well‐established texts such as Chow (1959. Open Channel Flow. McGraw‐Hill: Singapore), relatively lower than those predicted by n‐UR methods, but corresponds well with the value found from calibration studies of two‐ and three‐dimensional numerical models. The assumption of a uniform Manning's n value with flow depth, which is often made in numerical modelling, may be invalid depending on the relative submergence of the vegetation. Drag coefficients are evaluated for a method applicable to three‐dimensional numerical models. Further detailed experimental investigation and application of these approaches within a numerical modelling framework is now recommended. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
An imaging‐based automated large‐scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV) system for flash flood monitoring is developed and deployed in a mountainous stream in the Longchi Catchment, Chengdu, China. This system is built from a low‐cost Raspberry Pi board‐level computer with a camera module, which can acquire continuous images/videos automatically at programmed intervals. The minimum quadratic difference algorithm tracks surface patterns as flow tracers to estimate the distribution of surface velocities. Meanwhile, a stereo imaging‐based ‘virtual pole’ method has been developed to reconstruct the three‐dimensional topography with a stereo digital camera, and a cross‐sectional bathymetry has been generated without manual surveying. The varying water stage and water surface gradient, which are critical parameters that affect image rectification and surface velocity measurements, can also be directly resolved by applying the two imaging modules together. Discharge can then be estimated with the velocity–area method through selected cross sections. A flash flood that occurred between 24 July 2014 and 25 July 2014 is selected for analysis. The water surface level reconstructed from image processing was validated with marked water levels, and a good agreement was found with a root mean square error of 3.7 cm. The discharge recorded during the flood recession process ranged from approximately 3.5 to 27 m3/s. The rating curve obtained can be well described by a power function, and the linear regression suggested a Manning's n roughness coefficient of 0.18 of one specific cross section. Some limitations of the presented large‐scale particle image velocimetry system are also put forward, and possible solutions are provided for future improvements. With these proposed upgrades, the system can provide valuable datasets of flash floods in steep mountainous streams, which are critically needed for improving our understanding and modelling of many hydrological processes associated with flood generation, propagation and erosion, as well as for real‐time forecasting. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Previously we have detailed an application of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure to estimate spatially distributed uncertainty in models conditioned against binary pattern data contained in flood inundation maps. This method was applied to two sites where a single consistent synoptic image of inundation extent was available to test the simulation performance of the method. In this paper, we extend this to examine the predictive performance of the method for a reach of the River Severn, west‐central England. Uniquely for this reach, consistent inundation images of two major floods have been acquired from spaceborne synthetic aperture radars, as well as a high‐resolution digital elevation model derived using laser altimetry. These data thus allow rigorous split sample testing of the previous GLUE application. To achieve this, Monte Carlo analyses of parameter uncertainty within the GLUE framework are conducted for a typical hydraulic model applied to each flood event. The best 10% of parameter sets identified in each analysis are then used to map uncertainty in flood extent predictions using the method previously proposed for both an independent validation data set and a design flood. Finally, methods for combining the likelihood information derived from each Monte Carlo ensemble are examined to determine whether this has the potential to reduce uncertainty in spatially distributed measures of flood risk for a design flood. The results show that for this reach and these events, the method previously established is able to produce sharply defined flood risk maps that compare well with observed inundation extent. More generally, we show that even single, poor‐quality inundation extent images are useful in constraining hydraulic model calibrations and that values of effective friction parameters are broadly stationary between the two events simulated, most probably reflecting their similar hydraulics. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
A short‐term flood inundation prediction model has been formulated based on the combination of the super‐tank model, forced with downscaled rainfall from a global numerical weather prediction model, and a one‐dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. Different statistical methods for downscaled rainfall have been explored, taking into account the availability of historical data. It has been found that the full implementation of a statistical downscaling model considering physically‐based corrections to the numerical weather prediction model output for rainfall prediction performs better compared with an altitudinal correction method. The integration of the super‐tank model into the 1D hydraulic model demonstrates a minimal requirement for the calibration of rainfall–runoff and flood propagation models. Updating the model with antecedent rainfall and regular forecast renewal has enhanced the model's capabilities as a result of the data assimilation processes of the runoff and numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the predicted water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement with those measured by stream gauges and comparable to those reproduced using the actual rainfall. Moreover, the predicted flood inundation depth and extent exhibit reasonably similar tendencies to those observed in the field. However, large uncertainties are observed in the prediction results in lower, flat portions of the river basin where the hydraulic conditions are not properly analysed by the 1D flood propagation model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1007-1012
Abstract

The effects of human activities on flood propagation, during the period 1878–2005, in a 190-km reach of the middle—lower portion of the River Po (Northern Italy) are investigated. A series of topographical, hydrological and inundation data were collected for the 1878 River Po geometry and the June 1879 flood event, characterised by an inundated area of 432 km2. The aim of the study is two-fold: (1) to show the applicability of flood inundation models in reconstructing historical inundation events, and (2) to assess the effects of human activities during the last century on flood propagation in the middle—lower portion of the River Po. Numerical simulations were performed by coupling a two-dimensional finite element code, TELEMAC-2D, with a one-dimensional finite difference code, HEC-RAS.  相似文献   

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