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1.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):259-272
Abstract

A physically‐based multi‐layer numerical model is developed to determine the coupled transport of heat and water in the soil and in the soil‐atmosphere boundary layer. Using inputs of standard weather data and initial soil conditions the model is capable of predicting the surface energy balance components as well as water content and temperature profiles in the soil. It is used to predict these variables for a bare silt loam soil under two tillage treatments, viz. culti‐packed and left loose after disc‐harrowing, and the predicted results are compared with measurements. Very good agreement between the model predictions and measured evaporation and heat fluxes and soil water and temperatures for a ten‐day period shows that the model is capable of simulating the coupled transport of soil heat and soil water and their transfer across the soil surface‐atmosphere interface adequately.

Model predictions were compared with those of CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme). It is shown that CLASS, version 2.6, provides good estimates of evaporation and hence the latent heat flux density, QE, under wetter soil conditions, but overestimates QE at moderately wet soil conditions and underestimates it under dry soil conditions. Under dry to moderately wet soil conditions the calculation of evaporation from bare soil is very sensitive to the thickness of the top layer particularly as the thickness approaches 10 cm.  相似文献   

2.
A statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was evaluated by simultaneously downscaling air temperature, evaporation, and precipitation in Haihe River basin, China. The data used for evaluation were large-scale atmospheric data encompassing daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the daily mean climate model results for scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were measured daily mean air temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation data (1961–2000) from 11 weather stations in the Haihe River basin. The results obtained from SDSM showed that: (1) the pattern of change in and numerical values of the climate variables can be reasonably simulated, with the coefficients of determination between observed and downscaled mean temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation being 99%, 93%, and 73%, respectively; (2) systematic errors existed in simulating extreme events, but the results were acceptable for practical applications; and (3) the mean air temperature would increase by about 0.7°C during 2011~2040; the total annual precipitation would decrease by about 7% in A2 scenario but increase by about 4% in B2 scenario; and there were no apparent changes in pan evaporation. It was concluded that in the next 30 years, climate would be warmer and drier, extreme events could be more intense, and autumn might be the most distinct season among all the changes.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

Analysis of 39 satellite‐tracked drifter records from the Newfoundland Grand Banks region has allowed maps of the mean and variable flows to be drawn. The variable currents are particularly large relative to the mean for the shelf, Flemish Cap and in the Newfoundland Basin. The ratio of the mean to variable flow is largest along the path of the Labrador Current. Drifters that either have been released on or migrate onto the Grand Banks remain therefor an average of 71 d. A statistical study of the effect of wind on drifter motion has shown that winds can only account for about 10% of current variability. This result is examined with consideration given to data noise, aliasing and non‐stationary conditions. Some drifters that were deployed in the Labrador Current moved onto the shelf and vice versa. These observations have been used to estimate the rate of exchange between the Current and the Grand Banks. Using this exchange rate in a box model, it is calculated that, over the iceberg season, 30% of the bergs will be in the Avalon Channel, 20% on the Grand Banks and 50% in the Labrador Current, in good agreement with the observed distribution. An alternative model based solely on advection is considered as well. The exchange model is also applied to the salinity budget for the Labrador Current with some success.  相似文献   

4.
A model of lake ice was coupled with a model of lake temperature and evaporation to assess the possible effect of ice cover on the late-Pleistocene evaporation rate of Lake Lahontan. The simulations were done using a data set based on proxy temperature indicators and features of the simulated late-Pleistocene atmospheric circulation over western North America. When a data set based on a mean-annual air temperature of 3° C (7° C colder than present) and reduced solar radiation from jet-stream induced cloud cover was used as input to the model, ice cover lasting 4 months was simulated. Simulated evaporation rates (490–527 mm a–1) were 60% lower than the present-day evaporation rate (1300 mm a–1) of Pyramid Lake. With this reduced rate of evaporation, water inputs similar to the 1983 historical maxima that occurred in the Lahontan basin would have been sufficient to maintain the 13.5 ka BP high stand of Lake Lahontan.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Since 1969, meteorological and limnological measurements required for evaporation estimates by the energy budget method have been made almost continuously during the open water season at Perch Lake, a small (0.45 km2), shallow (mean depth 2 m) lake on the Canadian Shield. Hydrological measurements required for water budget calculations have been made continuously since 1970. Since ground water input to the lake has been found to be significant, energy budget estimates of evaporation are used in the water budget equation to estimate ground water inflow. Results are summarized as the long‐term averages along with the ranges of variation of the budget components observed during the eleven‐year period.  相似文献   

6.
The use of high resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr?1) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr?1). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (～10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ～70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (～13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (～35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (～55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (～32 % of the total variance) schemes with a strong regional dependence. Most members of the ensemble underestimate total precipitation amounts with biases as large as 250 mm yr?1 over the whole Mediterranean Sea compared with ERA Interim reanalysis mainly due to an underestimation of the number of wet days. The larger number of dry days in simulations is associated with a deficit in the activation of cumulus schemes. Both radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes influence precipitation through modifications on the available water vapor in the boundary layer generally tied with changes in evaporation.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper, three methods for estimating soil evaporation in a bare field were evaluated: evaporation ratio method (k ratio), complementary relationship and bulk equation. Micro-lysimeters were used to measure the actual evaporation for validation of the three methods. For the k ratio method, pan evaporation was used as the reference evaporation instead of the value obtained from the Penman–Monteith equation. This result is important for areas where meteorological data are unavailable. The results showed that, for daytime evaporation, the k ratio and bulk equation produced a good fit with the observation data, while the complementary relationship generated a larger deviation from the measured data. We recommend that the k ratio method and bulk equation could be used to calculate daytime soil evaporation with high accuracy when soil water content and pan evaporation data or meteorological data are available, while the complementary relationship could be used for a rough estimation when pan evaporation is available. All the methods could be applied to calculate cumulative evaporation.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Monthly mean surface fields of different meteorological parameters and evaporation are studied for the 1979 (poor monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon) monsoon seasons over the Arabian Sea, in order to understand the role of evaporation on the Indian monsoon rainfall. It is noticed that in general, the sea surface temperatures are higher in 1983 throughout the monsoon season than in 1979 in the Arabian Sea excepting western region. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale are found to be equal in both years (3.66×1010 and 3.59×1010 tons/day in 1979 and 1983, respectively). No coherence is observed between the evaporation and the west coast rainfall within a season. It is also noted that the pressure distribution over the Arabian Sea is even important to advect the moisture towards the west coast of India, through winds.With 10 Figures  相似文献   

9.
D.G. Steyn 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):254-258
Abstract

Two soil water models, the Versatile Soil Moisture Budget and the Aridity Index Model were used to investigate differences in modelling results as a consequence of using as input mean‐daily data, derived from historical monthly values, instead of actual daily data. Four different available water‐holding capacities, six different initial soil water contents and 30‐year precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data from 16 climate stations across Canada were used as input to the models. Using mean‐daily data as opposed to daily data resulted in model predictions that underestimated deep drainage and aridity indices and overestimated actual evapotranspiration. The differences in model output decreased when the available water‐holding capacity increased and the initial soil water content decreased. The use of mean‐daily data in the soil water models investigated is not recommended, until improved techniques that retain the characteristics of the highly variable weather conditions can be ascertained.  相似文献   

10.
Processing and quality control of flux data during LITFASS-2003   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Different aspects of the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of micrometeorological measurements were combined to create a comprehensive algorithm which was then applied to experimental data from LITFASS-2003 (Lindenberg Inhomogeneous Terrain—Fluxes between Atmosphere and Surface: a long term Study). Eddy-covariance measurements of the latent heat flux were the main focus of the QA/QC efforts. The results of a turbulence sensor intercomparison experiment showed deviations between the different eddy-covariance systems on the order of 15%, or less than 30 W m−2, for the latent heat flux and 5%, or less than 10 W m−2, for the sensible heat flux. In order to avoid uncertainties due to the post-processing of turbulence data, a comprehensive software package was used for the analysis of experimental data from LITFASS-2003, including all necessary procedures for corrections and quality control. An overview of the quality test results shows that for most of the days more than 80% of the available latent heat flux data are of high quality so long as there are no instrumental problems. The representativeness of a flux value for the target land-use type was analysed using a stochastic footprint model. Different methods to calculate soil heat fluxes at the surface are discussed and a sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most robust method for LITFASS-2003. The lack of energy balance closure, which was found for LITFASS-2003, can probably be attributed to the presence of low-frequency flux contributions that cannot be resolved with an averaging time of 30 min. Though the QA/QC system has been developed for the requirements of LITFASS-2003, it can also be applied to other experiments dealing with similar objectives.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

Temperature patterns of a small lake in the Canadian Shield are examined by means of thermal imagery. The effect of the different surface temperatures on the daytime energy balance is examined for two points over the lake at the time the thermal imagery was taken. For 14 June 1979, two distinct energy balance regimes are noted. At the lake centre, where the deeper water registers a relatively cool thermal signature, a boundary‐layer inversion is observed. The downward sensible heat flux augments the net radiation, and the latent heat flux is 105% of the radiant input. Along the lake margins, the shallows register warm thermal signatures and a lapse profile is observed. The sensible heat flux is an energy sink and the latent heat flux is diminished to 88% of the net radiation. This difference indicates that a single point estimate may introduce a bias if it is assumed to be representative of the lake average for the purposes of studying lake evaporation.

The calculation of the latent heat flux and evaporation is very sensitive to the value of the surface temperature. When the spatial patterns of surface temperature are considered in an estimate of the lake evaporation, the spatially integrated value differs by —6% from the estimate based upon a single point observation at the lake centre for a mid‐day in June and by +10% from the estimate based upon observations collected over the warm shallows.  相似文献   

12.
Global simulations with the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre climate model coupled to the CHAmeleon Surface Model (CHASM) are used to explore the sensitivity of simulated changes in evaporation, precipitation, air temperature and soil moisture resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Five simulations, using prescribed sea surface temperatures, are conducted which are identical except in the level of complexity used to represent the surface energy balance. The simulation of air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture at 1 2 CO2 and at 2 2 CO2 are generally sensitive at statistically significant levels to the complexity of the surface energy balance representation (i.e. the level of complexity used to represent these processes affects the simulated climate). However, changes in mean quantities, resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, are generally insensitive to the surface energy balance complexity. Conversely, changes in the spatial and temporal variance of evaporation and soil moisture are sensitive to the surface energy balance complexity. The addition of explicit canopy interception to the simplest model examined here enables that model to capture the change in the variance of evaporation simulated by the more complex models. In order to simulate changes in the variability of soil moisture, an explicit parameterization of bare soil evaporation is required. Overall, our results increase confidence that the simulation by climate models of the mean impact of increasing CO2 on climate are reliable. Changes in the variability resulting from increased CO2 on air temperature, precipitation or evaporation are also likely to be reliable since climate models typically use sufficiently complex land surface schemes. However, if the impact of increased CO2 on soil moisture is required, then a more complex surface energy balance representation may be needed in order to capture changes in variability. Overall, our results imply that the level of complexity used by most climate models to represent the surface energy balance is appropriate and does not contribute significant uncertainty in the simulation of changes resulting from increasing CO2. Our results only relate to surface energy balance complexity, and major uncertainties remain in how to model the surface hydrology and changes in the physiology, structural characteristics and distribution of vegetation. Future developments of land surface models should therefore focus on improving the representation of these processes.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract

A model that uses daily climate data for calculating hay crop growth in the Peace River region of British Columbia was developed and evaluated using data obtained over four growing seasons. The performances of the ratio of growth to transpiration and the ratio of growth to transpiration (J) divided by vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in estimating crop growth were compared. Transpiration was calculated by subtracting evaporation losses from the soil and foliage from the calculated evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration was calculated using solar radiation and air temperature, and a one‐layer root zone water balance model, which accounted for soil water supply limitation. Soil water storage measurements showed that the water balance model worked well. The model provided satisfactory estimates of growing season yield of above‐ground dry matter. The use of the ratio of growth toT/ vpd showed no improvement in growth estimation over the ratio of growth to transpiration.  相似文献   

14.
Nasser Lake is located in a hyper-arid region in the south of Egypt. Evaporation is by far the most important factor in explaining the water losses from the lake. To obtain better management scenarios for Nasser Lake, an accurate estimation of the lake evaporation losses thus is essential. This paper presents an update of previous evaporation estimates, making use of local meteorological and hydrological data collected from instrumented platforms (floating weather stations) at three locations on the lake: at Raft, Allaqi, and Abusembel (respectively at 2, 75, and 280 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam). Results from six conventional evaporation quantification methods were compared with the values obtained by the Bowen ratio energy budget method (BREB). The results of the BREB method showed that there is no significant difference between the evaporation rates at Allaqi and Abusembel. At Raft, higher evaporation rates were obtained, which were assumed to be overestimated due to the high uncertainty of the Bowen ratio (BR) parameter. The average BR value at Allaqi and Abusembel was used to eliminate this overestimates evaporation. Variance-based sensitivity and uncertainty analyses on the BREB results were conducted based on quasi-Monte Carlo sequences (Latin Hypercube sampling). The standard deviation of the total uncertainty on the BREB evaporation rate was found to be 0.62 mm day?1. The parameter controlling the change in stored energy, followed by the BR parameter, was found to be the most sensitive parameters. Several of the six conventional methods showed substantial bias when compared with the BREB method. These were modified to eliminate the bias. When compared to the BREB-based values, the Penman method showed most favorably for the daily time scale, while for the monthly scale, the Priestley–Taylor and the deBruin–Keijman methods showed best agreement. Differences in mean evaporation estimates of these methods (against the BREB method) were found to be in the range 0.14 and 0.36 mm day?1. All estimates were based calculations at the daily time scale covering a 10-year period (1995–2004).  相似文献   

15.
2012年太湖蒸发量变化特征及蒸发模型评估研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
湖泊蒸发是全球能量分布,水文循环的重要组成部分,同时是气候及生态系统环境变化的指示因子。运用太湖湖上观测平台大浦口站2012年涡度相关数据分析了太湖蒸发量的月变化及日变化特征,并评估了11种蒸发模型。结果表明：太湖2012年总蒸发量为1066.2 mm。潜热通量是太湖净辐射能量分配中的主导项, 2012年太湖地区潜热通量占净辐射通量的91.9%。2～7月为太湖水体储热阶段,当净辐射在7月达到最大值时,蒸发值也达到最大值;净辐射8月开始减少,至12月达到最小值,期间湖体储热释放,使得蒸发量在2月才达到最小值。采用涡度相关系统观测太湖蒸发量的数据评估了11种蒸发模型,分别从年蒸发总量和蒸发量月变化特征来探讨模型对于太湖蒸发量计算的适用性,其中以波文比能量平衡模型表现最好,与涡度相关观测值的相关系数为0.99,中心化均方根误差为4.50 mm month-1。  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Monthly evaporation was estimated from the coastal and open waters in the central region of the Red Sea between latitudes 21 and 22°N. A recent equation based on the bulk aerodynamic method was used to calculate the evaporation using two sets of observations collected over the coastal and open waters. The annual evaporation from coastal water was 194 cm with a maximum in May and a minimum in October; from open water, it was 144 cm with a maximum and a minimum in November and September, respectively. The application of Sverdrup's (1937) equation was attempted, first when the roughness parameter z0 in his equation was set equal to 0.6 cm as he proposed, and when z0 was set equal to the most acceptable value of 0.01 cm. Our study shows that the evaporation values obtained in the first case are closer to those obtained either from the recent equation or from direct measurements than those obtained in the second case.  相似文献   

17.
Climate change information required for impact studies is of a much finer scale than that provided by Global circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents an application of partial least squares (PLS) regression for downscaling GCMs output. Statistical downscaling models were developed using PLS regression for simultaneous downscaling of mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) as well as pan evaporation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The data used for evaluation were extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for the period 1948?C2000 and the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT for the period 2001?C2100. A simple multiplicative shift was used for correcting predictand values. The results demonstrated that the downscaling method was able to capture the relationship between the premises and the response. The analysis of downscaling models reveals that (1) the correlation coefficient for downscaled versus observed mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, and pan evaporation was 0.94, 0.96, and 0.89, respectively; (2) an increasing trend is observed for T max and T min for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT scenario; and (3) there was no trend observed in pan evaporation. In COMMIT scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are held at year 2000 levels. Furthermore, a comparison with neural network technique shows the efficiency of PLS regression method.  相似文献   

18.
A new method for calculating evaporation is proposed, using the Penman–Monteith (P-M) model with remote sensing. This paper achieved the effective estimation to daily evapotranspiration in the Ziya river catchment by using the P-M model based on MODIS remote sensing leaf area index and respectively estimated plant transpiration and soil evaporation by using coefficient of soil evaporation. This model divided catchment into seven different sub-regions which are prairie, meadow, grass, shrub, broad-leaved forest, cultivated vegetation, and coniferous forest through thoroughly considering the vegetation diversity. Furthermore, optimizing and calibrating parameters based on each sub-region and analyzing spatio-temporal variation rules of the model main parameters which are coefficient of soil evaporation f and maximum stomatal conductance g sx . The results indicate that f and g sx calibrated by model are basically consistent with measured data and have obvious spatio-temporal distribution characteristics. The monthly average evapotranspiration value of simulation is 37.96 mm/mon which is close to the measured value with 33.66 mm/mon and the relative error of simulation results in each subregion are within 11 %, which illustrates that simulated values and measured values fit well and the precision of model is high. In addition, plant transpiration and soil evaporation account for about 84.64 and 15.36 % respectively in total evapotranspiration, which means the difference between values of them is large. What is more, this model can effectively estimate the green water resources in basin and provide effective technological support for water resources estimation.  相似文献   

19.
Based on previous climate model simulations of a split of the polar jet stream during the late Pleistocene, we hypothesize that (1) 20–13.5 ka BP, season-to-season variation in the latitudinal maximum of the jet stream core led to enhanced wetness in the Great Basin, and (2) after 13.5 ka BP, northward movement of the jet stream resulted in increased aridity similar to today. We suggest that the enhanced effective wetness was due to increased precipitation combined with an energy-limited reduction in evaporation rates that was caused by increased summer cloud cover. A physically based thermal evaporation model was used to simulate evaporation for Lake Lahontan under various hypothesized paleoclimates. The simulated evaporation rates, together with hypothetical rates of precipitation and discharge, were input to a water balance model of Lake Lahontan. A 42% reduction in evaporation rate, combined with maximum historical rates of precipitation (1.8 times the mean annual rate) and discharge (2.4 times the mean annual rate), were sufficient to maintain Lake Lahontan at its 20-15 ka BP level. When discharge was increased to 3.8 times the present-day, mean annual rate, the 13.5 ka BP maximum level of Lake Lahontan was attained within 1400 years. A 135-m drop from the maximum level to Holocene levels was simulated within 300 years under the imposition of the present-day hydrologic balance.  相似文献   

20.
The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model simulation has been carried out for the 2000–2100 period to investigate the impacts of future Indian greenhouse gas emission scenarios on the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide besides other parameters like radiative forcing and temperature. For this purpose, the default global GHG (Greenhouse Gases) inventory was modified by incorporation of Indian GHG emission inventories which have been developed using three different approaches namely (a) Business-As-Usual (BAU) approach, (b) Best Case Scenario (BCS) approach and (c) Economy approach (involving the country’s GDP). The model outputs obtained using these modified GHG inventories are compared with various default model scenarios such as A1B, A2, B1, B2 scenarios of AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) and P50 scenario (median of 35 scenarios given in MAGICC). The differences in the range of output values for the default case scenarios (i.e., using the GHG inventories built into the model) vis-à-vis modified approach which incorporated India-specific emission inventories for AIM and P50 are quite appreciable for most of the modeled parameters. A reduction of 7% and 9% in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has been observed respectively for the years 2050 and 2100. Global methane (CH4) and global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions indicate a reduction of 13% and 15% respectively for 2100. Correspondingly, global concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O are estimated to reduce by about 4%, 4% and 1% respectively. Radiative forcing of CO2, CH4 and N2O indicate reductions of 6%, 14% and 4% respectively for the year 2100. Global annual mean temperature change (incorporating aerosol effects) gets reduced by 4% in 2100. Global annual mean temperature change reduces by 5% in 2100 when aerosol effects have been excluded. In addition to the above, the Indian contributions in global CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions have also been assessed by India Excluded (IE) scenario. Indian contribution in global CO2 emissions was observed in the range of 10%–26%, 6%–36% and 10%–38% respectively for BCS, Economy and BAU approaches, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2100 for P50, A1B-AIM, A2-AIM, B1-AIM & B2-AIM scenarios. CH4 and N2O emissions indicate about 4%–10% and 2%–3% contributions respectively in the global CH4 and N2O emissions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2100. These Indian GHG emissions have significant influence on global GHG concentrations and consequently on climate parameters like RF and ∆T. The study reflects not only the importance of Indian emissions in the global context but also underlines the need of incorporation of country specific GHG emissions in modeling to reduce uncertainties in simulation of climate change parameters.  相似文献   

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