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1.
Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.  相似文献   

2.
Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog.Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM8 in their 1o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM>7 events in the vicinities.Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6M<7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog.The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places.  相似文献   

3.
回顾了2013年郭增建提出的基于地震活动性的"静中动"和后期与作者共同发展的"准静中动"方法,以1987年1月8日在甘肃南部迭部县发生的5.9级地震作为标志性的"准静中动"地震,结合国家地震局在1989年综合划定的1990—2000年南北地震带10年地震危险区,用中长期预测的时间尺度,指出了南北地震带北段三个未来可能发生6~7级地震的地区,其中一个就是四川省九寨沟地区。回顾分析中对"静中动"方法预测效能、存在的问题及一些中长期预测的问题进行讨论,得到两点认识:一是通过这次地震的再次验证,证明"静中动"方法是一种可行的预测地震的独立指标方法,在验证的基础上对该方法进行了优化认识;二是基于"静中动"方法与南北地震带北段10年地震危险区对应地震较为准确的启发,初步认为前兆可以划分为平静期的前兆与活跃期的前兆,而前者可能对于地震的预测意义更大,未来可以沿这一思路开展进一步的论证和研究。  相似文献   

4.
The most complete and reliable data of strong (M s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.  相似文献   

5.
Since March 2014, an unusually large amount of earthquakes occur southeast of the city of Darmstadt in the northern Upper Rhine Graben. During the period, until April 2015, we have recorded 356 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from ML?=??0.6 to 4.2. We identified two source clusters separated laterally by about 5 km. The hypocentres within these clusters are aligned vertically extending over a depth range from 1 to 8 km with a lateral extent of about 1 to 2 km. Focal mechanisms show left-lateral strike-slip movements; b values are changing with time between b?=?0.6 and b?=?0.9. This is the first time in almost 150 years that such high earthquake rates have been observed in the region. Historical accounts dating back to the nineteenth century report of over 2000 felt earthquakes over a time span from 1869 to 1871. From these, maximum intensities of VII have been estimated. Other seismic activities in the region were reported in the 1970s. The observations of the 2014–2015 earthquake series do not completely match a typical main shock–aftershock sequence or a typical earthquake swarm. Especially the activity at the beginning of the earthquake series may be considered as a mixture of a main shock–aftershock sequence and a short-lasting swarm event. Whether or not the time gap between the current seismic activity, which actually takes place at the same locations as parts of the seismic swarm in 1869–1871, and the seismic activity in the nineteenth century or the seismic activity in the 1970s can be interpreted as a seismic cycle remains unclear.  相似文献   

6.
Based on the example of the Vrancea zone of concentrated seismicity, it is shown how the stress-strain state of the medium responds to a disturbance of the geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions are examined in relation to earthquakes in the Vrancea zone in the period 1988–1996. It is established that the seismic energy release in the Vrancea zone is associated with differences (“gradients”) in the H component of the geomagnetic field. Such a gradient preceding earthquakes is shown to be the midnight polar substorm and the degree of its mid-latitude effect. The time interval from the maximum of the substorm development to a shock (τ, h) is directly related to the focal depth. The seismic characteristics K en and h (km) are demonstrated to be related to morphological features of the substorm development, namely, its duration T (min), intensity, and background. Differences in the duration of polar substorms before crustal (shallow) and deep earthquakes are revealed. Morphological features of the spectrum of geomagnetic variations preceding the seismic energy release are established.  相似文献   

7.
A sequence of moderate shallow earthquakes (3.5M L5.3) was located within the Vercors massif (France) in the period 1961–1984. This subalpine massif has been a low seismic area for at least 5 centuries. During the period 1962–1963, 12 shallow earthquakes occurred in the neighborhood (10 km) of the Monteynard reservoir, 30 km south of the city of Grenoble. The latest fourM L4.0 earthquakes occurred in 1979–1984 either at larger distance (35 km) or greater depth (10 km) from the reservoir. Two triggering mechanisms are suggested for this sequence: (i) the direct effect of elastic loading through either increased shear stress or strength reducing by increased pore pressure at depth; (ii) the pore pressure diffusion induced by poroelastic stress change due to the reservoir filling.The weekly water levels, local balanced geological cross sections, and focal mechanisms argue for two types of mechanical connection between the earthquake sequence and the filling cycles of the Monteynard reservoir. The seismic sequence started with the 1962–1963 shallow earthquakes that occurred during the first filling of the reservoir and are typical of the direct effect of elastic loading. The 1979 deeper earthquake is located at a 10 km depth below the reservoir. This event occurred 16 years after the initial reservoir impoundment, but one month after the previous 1963 maximum water level was exceeded. Moreover the yearly reservoir level increased gradually in the period 1962–1979 and has decreased since 1980. Accordingly we suggest that the gradual diffusion of water from reservoir to hypocentral depths decreases the strength of the rock matrices through increased pore pressure. The transition between the two types of seismic response is supported by the analysis ofM L3.5 earthquakes which all occurred in the period 1964–1971, ranging between 10 and 30 km distance from the reservoir. The three other delayed earthquakes of the 1961–1984 seismic sequence (M L4 during the 1979–1984 period) are all located 35 km away from the reservoir. Based on the seismic activity, the estimates for the hydraulic diffusivities range between 0.2–10 m2/s, except for the first event that occurred 30 km north of the reservoir, the filling just started. The lack ofin situ measurements of crustal hydrological properties in the area, shared by most of the Reservoir-Induced-Seismicity cases, prevents us from obtaining absolute evidence for the triggering processes. These observations and conceptual models attest that previous recurrence times for moderate natural shocks (4.5M L5.5) estimated within this area using historical data, could be modified by 0.1–1 MPa stress changes. These small changes in deviatoric stress suggest that the upper crust is in this area nearly everywhere at a state of stress near failure. Although the paucity of both number and size of earthquakes in the French subalpine massif shows that aseismic displacements prevail, our study demonstrates that triggered earthquakes are important tools for assessing local seismic risk through mapping fault zones and identifying their possible seismic behavior.  相似文献   

8.
We review earthquake distributions associated with hydrocarbon fields in the context of pore pressure diffusion models, poroelastic stress transfer and isostasy theory. These three mechanisms trigger or induce seismic instabilities at both local scale (D5 km) and at regional scale (D20 km). The modeled changes in stress are small (1 MPa), whatever the tectonic setting. Each mechanism corresponds to different production processes. (1) Local hydraulic fracturing due to fluid injection induces seismic-slip on cracks (M L3) within the injected reservoir through decreasing the effective stress. (2) Pure fluid withdrawal causes pore pressure to decrease within the reservoir. It triggers adjustments of the geological structure to perturbations related to the reservoir response to depletion. Poroelastic mechanisms transfer this stress change from the reservoir to the surrounding levels whereM L5 seismic instabilities occur either above or below the reservoir. (3) Massive hydrocarbon recovery induces crustal readjustments due to the removal of load from the upper crust. It can induce larger earthquakes (M L6) at greater distance from the hydrocarbon fields than the two other mechanisms.Due to the mechanical properties of the shallow rock matrices involved, seismic slip triggered either by mechanism (1) or (2), is a second-order process of the main elastoplastic deformation. for a minimum of 80% of commercially productive basins, most of the local deformation is reported as aseismic, i.e., there is no evidence forM L3 earthquakes. Nevertheless, the induced stresses vary as a function of time in a manner that depends on the hydraulic diffusivity (i.e., permeability) of the reservoir and surrounding rocks. Because small earthquakes (M L3) indicate changes in stress and pore pressure, monitoring of seismicity is a means of assessingin situ reservoir behavior.The less constrained seismic response to hydrocarbon recovery is the possible connection between local fluid manipulations, triggered earthquakes and major regional earthquakes. Positive feedback mechanisms suggest that the region of seismic hazard changes is much larger than the area where hydrocarbons are extracted. These observations and models testify that fluid movement and pore pressure changes (increase or decrease) play important roles in the mechanics of earthquakes and in the triggering of natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
The Sakarya prefecture is an interesting area with various seismicity types. This activity comes from earthquakes occurring at the North Anatolian Fault Zone and from a few quarry blast areas in the region. These quarry blast recordings produce errors in the determination of active faults and mapping of the microearthquake activity. Therefore, to recognize the tectonic activity in the region, we need to be able to discriminate between earthquakes and quarry blasts in the catalogues. In this study, a statistical analysis method (linear discriminant function) has been applied to classify seismic events occurring in the Sakarya region. We used 110 seismic events that were recorded by Sakarya University Seismic Station between 2012 and 2014. Time and frequency variant parameters, maximum S wave and maximum P wave amplitude ratio (S/P), the spectral ratio (Sr), maximum frequency (fmax), and total signal duration of the waveform were used for discrimination analyses. The maximum frequency (fmax) versus time duration of the seismic signal gives a higher classification percentage (94%) than the other discriminants. At the end of this study, 41 out of 110 events (44%) are determined as quarry blasts, and 62 (56%) are considered as earthquakes.  相似文献   

10.
Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM 0. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM 0, depends quite strongly onM 0 for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of a =µE a /M 0, where is the modulus of rigidity andE a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.  相似文献   

11.
The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or moreM7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994–1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type A zones), while others show deceleration (type D zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes—in 1957, 1964, and 1965—originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years.  相似文献   

12.
The Cocos plate subducts beneath North America at the Mexico trench. The northernmost segment of this trench, between the Orozco and Rivera fracture zones, has ruptured in a sequence of five large earthquakes from 1973 to 1985; the Jan. 30, 1973 Colima event (M s 7.5) at the northern end of the segment near Rivera fracture zone; the Mar. 14, 1979 Petatlan event (M s 7.6) at the southern end of the segment on the Orozco fracture zone; the Oct. 25, 1981 Playa Azul event (M s 7.3) in the middle of the Michoacan gap; the Sept. 19, 1985 Michoacan mainshock (M s 8.1); and the Sept. 21, 1985 Michoacan aftershock (M s 7.6) that reruptured part of the Petatlan zone. Body wave inversion for the rupture process of these earthquakes finds the best: earthquake depth; focal mechanism; overall source time function; and seismic moment, for each earthquake. In addition, we have determined spatial concentrations of seismic moment release for the Colima earthquake, and the Michoacan mainshock and aftershock. These spatial concentrations of slip are interpreted as asperities; and the resultant asperity distribution for Mexico is compared to other subduction zones. The body wave inversion technique also determines theMoment Tensor Rate Functions; but there is no evidence for statistically significant changes in the moment tensor during rupture for any of the five earthquakes. An appendix describes theMoment Tensor Rate Functions methodology in detail.The systematic bias between global and regional determinations of epicentral locations in Mexico must be resolved to enable plotting of asperities with aftershocks and geographic features. We have spatially shifted all of our results to regional determinations of epicenters. The best point source depths for the five earthquakes are all above 30 km, consistent with the idea that the down-dip edge of the seismogenic plate interface in Mexico is shallow compared to other subduction zones. Consideration of uncertainties in the focal mechanisms allows us to state that all five earthquakes occurred on fault planes with the same strike (N65°W to N70°W) and dip (15±3°), except for the smaller Playa Azul event at the down-dip edge which has a steeper dip angle of 20 to 25°. However, the Petatlan earthquake does prefer a fault plane that is rotated to a more east-west orientation—one explanation may be that this earthquake is located near the crest of the subducting Orozco fracture zone. The slip vectors of all five earthquakes are similar and generally consistent with the NUVEL-predicted Cocos-North America convergence direction of N33°E for this segment. The most important deviation is the more northerly slip direction for the Petatlan earthquake. Also, the slip vectors from the Harvard CMT solutions for large and small events in this segment prefer an overall convergence direction of about N20°E to N25°E.All five earthquakes share a common feature in the rupture process: each earthquake has a small initial precursory arrival followed by a large pulse of moment release with a distinct onset. The delay time varies from 4 s for the Playa Azul event to 8 s for the Colima event. While there is some evidence of spatial concentration of moment release for each event, our overall asperity distribution for the northern Mexico segment consists of one clear asperity, in the epicentral region of the 1973 Colima earthquake, and then a scattering of diffuse and overlapping regions of high moment release for the remainder of the segment. This character is directly displayed in the overlapping of rupture zones between the 1979 Petatlan event and the 1985 Michoacan aftershock. This character of the asperity distribution is in contrast to the widely spaced distinct asperities in the northern Japan-Kuriles Islands subduction zone, but is somewhat similar to the asperity distributions found in the central Peru and Santa Cruz Islands subduction zones. Subduction of the Orozco fracture zone may strongly affect the seismogenic character as the overlapping rupture zones are located on the crest of the subducted fracture zone. There is also a distinct change in the physiography of the upper plate that coincides with the subducting fracture zone, and the Guerrero seismic gap to the south of the Petatlan earthquake is in the wake of the Orozco fracture zone. At the northern end, the Rivera fracture zone in the subducting plate and the Colima graben in the upper plate coincide with the northernmost extent of the Colima rupture zone.  相似文献   

13.
Three complete data sets of strong earthquakes (M5.5), which occurred in the seismic regions of Chile, Mexico and Kamchatka during the time period 1899–1985, have been used to test the existence of a time-lag in the seismic energy release between these regions. These data sets were cross-correlated in order to determine whether any pair of the sets are correlated. For this purpose statistical tests, such as theT-test, the Fisher's transformation and probability distribution have been applied to determine the significance of the obtained correlation coefficients. The results show that the time-lag between Chile and Kamchatka is –2, which means that Kamchatka precedes Chile by 2 years, with a correlation coefficient significant at 99.80% level, a weak correlation between Kamchatka-Mexico and noncorrelation for Mexico-Chile.  相似文献   

14.
Kracke  D.  Heinrich  R.  Jentzsch  G.  Kaiser  D. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2000,44(4):537-548
East Thuringia/Germany, especially the region Gera-Ronneburg, is part of the large Kyffhäuser-Jachymov-Fault-Zone and displays moderate seismicity. However, its seismic hazard is significantly higher than that of the surrounding area including the Vogtland/Northern Bohemian region. The earthquake catalogue of Germany contains for this region besides the well-investigated Central German Earthquake (March 1872, I 0 =VII-VIII) entries of up to I 0 =VIII (14th century). Epicentral intensities and coordinates of these historical earthquakes are considered as uncertain. In seismic hazard analysis historical events which are uncertain are often neglected. But, especially in regions of moderate seismicity and infrequent larger earthquakes, the time window considered should be extended as far as possible. Apart from the necessity to study the historical sources of the strongest 14th century earthquakes, we investigate the influence of these events on the seismic hazard, taking into account the uncertainties of their size and location. Generally, the investigations clearly reveal the importance of defining source regions on the one hand and the significance of the local relevant attenuation function on the other hand. A further important point in seismic hazard assessment is the strong influence of the geological site conditions on seismic hazard (amplification or damping phenomena). For both points the well-known Central German Earthquake (1872) supplies important information.  相似文献   

15.
In a previous paper (Makropoulos andBurton, 1983) the seismic risk of the circum-Pacific belt was examined using a whole process technique reduced to three representative parameters related to the physical release of strain energy, these are:M 1, the annual modal magnitude determined using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship;M 2, the magnitude equivalent to the total strain energy release rate per annum, andM 3, the upper bound magnitude equivalent to the maximum strain energy release in a region.The risk analysis is extended here using the part process statistical model of Gumbel's IIIrd asymptotic distribution of extreme values. The circum-Pacific is chosen being a complete earthquake data set, and the stability postulate on which asymptotic distributions of extremes are deduced to give similar results to those obtained from whole process or exact distributions of extremes is successfully checked. Additionally, when Gumbel III asymptotic distribution curve fitting is compared with Gumbel I using reduced chi-squared it is seen to be preferable in all cases and it also allows extensions to an upper-bounded range of magnitude occurrences. Examining the regional seismicity generates several seismic risk results, for example, the annual mode for all regions is greater thanm(1)=7.0, with the maximum being in the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka region atm(1)=7.6. Overall, the most hazardous areas are situated in this northwestern region and also diagonally opposite in the southeastern circum-Pacific. Relationships are established between the Gumbel III parameters and quantitiesm 1(1),X 2 and , quantities notionally similar toM 1,M 2 andM 3 although is shown to be systematically larger thanM; thereby giving a physical link through strain energy release to seismic risk statistics. Inall regions of the circum-Pacific similar results are obtained forM 1,M 2 andM 3 and the notionally corresponding statistical quantitiesm 1(1),X 2 and , demonstrating that the relationships obtained are valid over a wide range of seismotectonic enviroments.  相似文献   

16.
TeleseismicP-waves of some large earthquakes that occurred in the eastern Mediterranean region have been analysed by using an iterative maximum entropy technique in order to obtain the independent spectral parameters, the long-period spectral level 0 and the corner frequencyf 0 of the far-field displacement spectra.Based on these parameters, the seismic source parameters seismic momentM 0, source dimensionr, fault lengthl, average displacement u, shear stress drop , radiated energyE s and apparent stressn are calculated for the considered earthquakes by using Brune's and Madariaga's models.The striking feature of the source parameters obtained in this study is the low stress drop value which varies between 5 and 15 bars. If Madariaga's model had been used, higher stress drop values would have been obtained.The low stress drop earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region might be interpreted either by the possible presence of low strength material near the source or by the partial stress drop model.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM L 1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM L 5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM L 5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM L 5.8 occurred in areas whereK sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM L 5.3 since 1948.  相似文献   

18.
Time variations in the parameters of seismic activity in two regions in Greece, which are known to have different geodynamical conditions, are analyzed using the FastBEE algorithm suggested in (Papadopoulos and Baskoutas, 2009). The study is based on the data on weak earthquakes that occurred in two local regions. One region pertains to the zone dominated by intensive compression stress field, while another is located in the region of a relatively lower intensity extension stress field. It is shown that in the zone of compression the seismic parameters exhibit anomalous temporal behavior before strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.7, whereas in the zones of extension, similar anomalies precede earthquakes with lower magnitudes of up to Ms ≥ 4.9. The most informative parameters for the purposes of predicting strong seismic events are the released seismic energy in the form logE 2/3 and the slope of the frequency-magnitude dependence, b-value. The seismic activity in the region, expressed in terms of the logarithmic number of earthquakes, per unit time in some cases does not exhibit any particular pattern of behavior before strong earthquakes. In the time series of the studied parameters, four stages in the seismic process are clearly distinguished before strong earthquakes. Typically, a strong earthquake has a low probability to occur within the first two stages. Instead, this probability arises at stage III and attains its maximum at the end of this stage coinciding with the occurrence of the strong earthquake. We suggest these features of the time series to be used for the assessment of seismic hazard and for the real-time prediction of strong earthquakes. The time variations in the b-value are found to be correlated with the time variations inlogE 2/3. This correlation is closely approximated by the power-law function. The parameters of this function depend on the geodynamical features of the region and characterize the intensity and the type of the regional tectonic stresses. The results of our study show that the FastBEE algorithm can be successfully applied for monitoring seismic hazard and predicting strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
Love waves recorded by a long-period seismograph at New Delhi (NDI) from seven earthquakes of magnitude 4.3 to 5.2 in Koyna and Bhatsa on the western coast and one earthquake in Ongole on the eastern coast of the Indian Peninsula have been used to determine the seismic moment for each of the earthquakes by waveform modeling. Transverse component of the synthetic seismogram shows that the maximum amplitude of waveform decreases with an increase of source duration. Thus for an evaluation of the seismic moment by equating the amplitude level of the observed and synthetic waveforms, we must know the source duration. The synthetic seismogram also indicates that a short source duration gives rise to a small but sharp pulse and this pulse is interpreted as anLg wave. Comparison of the observed and synthetic waveforms has been used for a simultaneous evaluation of the source duration and seismic moment. The source durations are found to vary between 2.2 and 4.4 s; for earthquakes with a magnitude range between 4.3 and 5.2 these durations are slightly higher than normal. We obtain moment (M 0) of Ongole earthquake (M L =5.1)as 1.7×1024 dyne-cm; moments of Koyna and Bhatsa earthquakes (4.3M L 5.2) on the western coast lie between 0.7×1023 and 3.6×1023 dyne-cm. Moment (M 0)-magnitude (M L ) relation logM 0=1.5M L +16.0 for the western United States region agrees as well, in general, with the results for the earthquakes in the Indian Peninsula.  相似文献   

20.
This paper describes a new method, single-link cluster analysis (SLC), to evaluate percursory quiescence for shallow earthquakes in sixteen subduction zones, using data from the ISC catalog. To define quiescent regions, we divided the catalog into time intervals with a durationT, overlapping byT/2. We considered all earthquakes having magnitudes larger than some magnitudeM min, lying within a specified distance of a great circle which is approximately coincident with the trench near a subduction zone. Within each time interval we connected or linked all earthquakes lying within some cutoff distanced of one another. We then projected all these links onto the great circle, and defined a region to be quiescent if it was not covered by the projection of any links. For this study,T was two years,M min wasm b =4.9, and we variedd from 100 to 400 km. We defined an earthquake as following quiescence if it occurred within two years following, and within 75 km of a quiescent zone as defined above. The primary conclusion of this study was that earthquakes with surface wave magnitudes 7.2 and greater were about 5–15% more likely to follow quiescence than were the smaller background earthquakes withm b >-4.9. A chi-squared analysis shows that this result is significant at the 99% level. In contrast, earthquakes with surface wave magnitude of 6.7 to 7.1 were no more likely to follow quiescence than were background earthquakes. Of sixteen individual regions, Central America, Japan, and Peru-Chile were the only regions where large earthquakes were more likely to occur following quiescence than were background earthquakes. For a cutoff link length of 300 km, only in Central America was the difference between large earthquakes and background earthquakes significant at the 95% level of significance. For a cutoff link length of 250 km, the significance level exceeded 95% only in Japan. The SLC method is an objective, quantitative method for evaluating large data catalogs, or for monitoring quiescence in regions where quiescence is conjectured to precede large earthquakes.  相似文献   

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