首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
The 2018 typhoon season in the western North Pacific(WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones(TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean(22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea(SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in China's Mainland(69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o and positive Pacific meridional mode(PMM)episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central Pacific(TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Ni?o years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals,such as intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances(SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.  相似文献   

2.
Radar structures of one mesocyclone and one mesocirculation (the term mesocirculation refers to a class of rotating updrafts, which may or may not be as spatially and temporally large as a typical mesocyclone) that developed a total of four tornadoes in association with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Frances 1998 are presented. One tornado developed within an inner rainband near the time of landfall while three of the other tornadoes developed within an outer rainband nearly 24 hours after the landfall. Radar reflectivities of the tornadic circulations averaged upwards of 40 dBZ while Doppler radar wind components directed toward the radar averaged 11 m s−1. It is realized that although TC Frances was a minimal hurricane it spawned several tornadoes (four of which were studied) causing damage exceeding $2 million. These tornadoes were not all located close to the TC center, serving as a caution to forecasters and emergency personnel that the immediate landfalling area is not the only place to watch.While it is difficult to accurately predict the TC tornado location and time of occurrence, the degree of low-level baroclinicity seems to play an important role in tornadogenesis. Another significant finding is that the tornadoes were produced on the inward side of an inner rainband, as well as the inward side of an outer rainband. Consistent with climatology, the forward right quadrant of the TC developed the four tornadoes studied here.The lead author, Professor G. V. Rao died 31 July 2004 at the age of 70. He fell victime to the waves while swimming in Mazatlan, Mexico. This is the last paper he publilshed as lead author.  相似文献   

3.
In this study, a comparative analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between the three types of temporal evolution of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño (prolonged, abrupt, and symmetric decay) in the tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). TCs in the WNP were found to be sensitive to the different types of temporal evolution of the CP El Niño. During years of prolonged and symmetric decay, TCs were more frequent over East Asia with relatively strong TCs. In contrast, during years of abrupt decay, weak TCs with a relatively short lifespan more likely formed at slightly higher latitudes. The historical record of CP El Niño events is limited, but this study is expected to improve the understanding of complex natural systems and provide fundamental information for the scientific understanding and forecasting of TCs.  相似文献   

4.
The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor (2015) were investigated using mesoscale surface observations, radar reflectivity, satellite nephograms, and the final (FNL) analyses of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The rainfall processes during Soudelor’s landfall and translation over East China could be separated into four stages based on rainfall characteristics such as distribution, intensity, and corresponding dynamics. The relatively less precipitation in the first stage resulted from interaction between the easterly wind to the north flank of this tropical cyclone (TC) and the coastal topography along the southeast of Zhejiang Province, China. With landfall of the TC in East China during the second stage, precipitation maxima occurred because of interaction between the TC’s principal rainbands and the local topography from northeastern Fujian Province to southwestern Zhejiang Province. The distribution of precipitation presented significant asymmetric features in the third stage with maximal rainfall bands in the northeast quadrant of the TC when Soudelor’s track turned from westward to northward as the TC decayed rapidly. Finally, during the northward to northeastward translation of the TC in the fourth stage, the interaction between a mid-latitude weather system and the northern part of the TC resulted in transfer of the maximum rainfall from the north of Zhejiang Province to the north of Jiangsu Province, which represented the end of rainfall in Zhejiang Province. Further quantitative calculations of the rainfall rate induced by the interaction between local topography and TC circulation (defined as “orographic effects”) in the context of a one-dimensional simplified model showed that orographic effects were the primary factor determining the intensity of precipitation in this case, and accounted for over 50% of the total precipitation. The asymmetric distribution of the TC’s rainbands was closely related to the asymmetric distribution of moisture resulted from changes of the TC’s structure, and led to asymmetric distribution of local intense precipitation induced by Soudelor. Based on analysis of this TC, it could be concluded that local severe rainfall in the coastal regions of East China is closely related to changes of TC structure and intensity, as well as the outer rainbands. In addition, precipitation intensity and duration will increase correspondingly because of the complex interactions between the TC and local topography, and the particular TC track along large-scale steering flow. The results of this study may be useful for the understanding, prediction, and warning of disasters induced by local extreme rainfall caused by TCs, especially for facilitating forecasting and warning of flooding and mudslides associated with torrential rain caused by interactions between landfalling TCs and coastal topography.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Daily flow records, rainfall data and tropical cyclone maps during 1970–1998 are used to document the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on floods in the Rewa River system, Viti Levu, Fiji. Floods are large, brief, isolated events caused by TCs and non-TC tropical rainstorms. More floods are caused by tropical rainstorms than by TCs, but TC floods are larger. The log Pearson Type III distribution consistently provided the best fit to partial duration flood series and the widely-recommended generalized Pareto distribution performed very poorly, underscoring the need to test a variety of distributions for a particular geographic location. Tropical cyclones occur more often in Fiji during negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and all TCs that occurred during El Niño conditions caused floods. Peak flood discharges caused by TCs are inversely correlated with the SOI, reflecting possible links with tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation intensity.  相似文献   

6.
This study carried out a comparative analysis of the changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, TC track, and TC intensity focusing on TCs that affected the Korean peninsula (KP) according to three evolutionary patterns (prolonged, abrupt and symmetric-decay) of the abnormal sea surface temperature in the Central-Pacific (CP) region. As a result of the analysis, the activity pattern of TCs was found to vary depending on the evolution patterns of the CP El Niño, and such changes appeared to result in clear variations in the regional rainfall in Korea. In the prolonged-decaying and symmetric-decaying years, the KP received considerable TC rainfall. On the other hand, in abrupt-decaying years, it was subtly affected by the TC rainfall. Although rather limited conditions and relatively short observation data were used to analyze the effects of the evolution pattern of the CP El Niño on TCs, the results can be used to quantitatively identify the spatial features of TCs affecting the KP. These results are expected to be helpful in managing the disaster risks in vulnerable areas, including plans to secure stable water resources in the basin, and in establishing effective and active measures to cope with natural disasters by extreme events over the KP.  相似文献   

7.
A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.  相似文献   

8.
An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.  相似文献   

9.
Yu  Fangjie  Zhang  Xuan  Chen  Xin  Chen  Ge 《Ocean Dynamics》2020,70(11):1449-1459
Ocean Dynamics - The ocean thermal structure (OTS) is a significant element that affects tropical cyclone (TC) intensities, as energy drawn from the ocean fuels TCs. Satellite altimetry can be used...  相似文献   

10.
本文使用西北太平洋累积气旋能量(ACE)月尺度异常序列,对850 hPa相对涡度、地表纬向风、柱水汽含量、OLR、降水和SST等大尺度环境场变量进行时滞回归分析,讨论了月尺度TC活动对大尺度环境场的影响及其与周尺度的区别和联系.结果表明:(1)月尺度ACE回归出的纬向风无论是强度还是范围都要明显大于周尺度ACE回归结果,TC的频繁发生,尤其是强度大且持续时间长的近赤道TC,对于激发或加强TC活动区域南侧的低纬地区西风异常有一定的积极作用,持续并且强度较大的西风异常可能导致西风的爆发,而西风爆发会在很大程度上影响ENSO事件的发生和演变.(2)在月尺度上,OLR、柱水汽含量、降水和SST等物理量均呈现出较为明显的E1Nino型分布,而在周尺度上,仅SST呈现出明显的El Nino型分布,这在一定程度上反映了月尺度TC活动和太平洋ENSO信号之间存在更密切的关联.(3)在TC发生后1-2月,TC的主要生成区域柱水汽含量减少、OLR增大,这会在一定程度上降低该区域生成TC的潜能.虽然TC所引起SST降低的空间尺度很小,但其通过大气和海洋的传导会扩大到更大尺度上,由于这种反馈具有一定的滞后性,所以月尺度TC对大尺度环境场影响的信号更为显著.  相似文献   

11.
应用1949～2005年热带气旋（台风）年鉴资料,对西太平洋以及登陆我国东南沿海地区的热带气旋活动的特征进行了分析,发现西太平洋生成热带气旋个数和登陆我国热带气旋的个数有略为减少的趋势,而登陆我国热带气旋的强度有显著增强趋势.2005年西太平洋生成热带气旋数偏少,但其中登陆我国的强热带气旋比例却明显偏高.对导致这种异常现象的大尺度环流条件的分析表明,前期南亚高压和副热带高压势力偏强,台风期副高偏强、东亚夏季风偏弱、水平风垂直切变等因子不利于热带气旋生成;而西太平洋西部异常的水汽输送、弱风垂直切变、海表面温度异常以及中低纬系统之间相互作用等则可能是导致登陆我国热带气旋强度异常偏强的主要原因.  相似文献   

12.
利用NASA的MERRA再分析数据、台站降水资料、热带气旋最佳路径数据集和雷达资料初步对比探讨了2014年两次路径相似台风（"威马逊"和"海鸥"）的降水特征及其成因.结果表明,两者台站过程降水和最大日降水强度差异明显;在华南产生的过程降水和日降水均表现出明显的非对称性,最强均在海南岛;在海南岛产生的过程降水、日降水和最大小时降水最强均在海南岛西部和北部.与"海鸥"相比,在强降水时段,"威马逊"产生更大台站日降水的原因之一是其自身更强的强度和偏慢的移动速度,而且还与高层更强的南亚高压主体、中层偏弱偏东的副热带高压和低层强的低空急流密切相关.在强降水阶段,两者所处的环境风垂直切变均指向西南偏西-西南偏南方向,而强的对流均主要在环境风垂直切变的左侧或前侧.两者强降水主要在海南岛西部和北部的关键原因是五指山山脉和台风路径的相对位置配置类似,强降水区恰好处于向岸风面或五指山的迎风面.  相似文献   

13.
Forecasts of tropical cyclones(TCs) of the western North Pacific basin during the period of July to August 2018,especially of Rumbia(2018), Ampil(2018) and Jongdari(2018) that made landfall over Shanghai, have opposed great challenges for numerical models and forecasters. The predictive skill of these TCs are analyzed based on ensemble forecasts of ECMWF and NCEP. Results of the overall performance show that ensemble forecasts of ECMWF generally have higher predictive skill of track and intensity forecasts than those of NCEP. Specifically, ensemble forecasts of ECMWF have higher predictive skill of intensity forecasts for Rumbia(2018) and Ampil(2018) than those of NCEP, and both have low predictive skill of intensity forecasts for Jongdari(2018) at peak intensity. To improve the predictive skill of ensemble forecasts for TCs, a method that estimates adaptive weights for members of an ensemble forecast is proposed. The adaptive weights are estimated based on the fit of ensemble priors and posteriors to observations. The performances of ensemble forecasts of ECMWF and NCEP using the adaptive weights are generally improved for track and intensity forecasts. The advantages of the adaptive weights are more prominent for ensemble forecasts of ECMWF than for those of NCEP.  相似文献   

14.
利用AMSU-A亮温估测西北太平洋区域热带气旋强度   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文
先进的微波垂直探测器AMSU（Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit）能接收到穿透一定厚度云层的微波辐射信息,适合于分析热带气旋暖核特征.由辐射传输方程和静力学方程可知,气旋暖核强度同中心海平面气压距平相关联. 本文利用搭载于极轨气象卫星NOAA-16/17/18上的AMSU A亮温资料,根据2002～2006年之间发生在西北太平洋区域热带气旋的移动路径,匹配出47个热带气旋的183时次个例,并将各时次的暖核最大亮温距平同气象业务部门发布的热带气旋强度报告值建立统计回归方程. 为进一步提高估测精度,在计算亮温距平过程中,提出用于修正扫描点分辨率不均匀所带来取样偏差的方法,并综合利用AMSU-A的7、8双通道信息来进行估测,利用修正后算法得到暖核亮温距平同气旋强度之间的相关系数为0.80,标准偏差为12.2 hPa,对近年来影响我国较大的两个台风（0414“云娜”和0608“桑美”）进行个例估测,平均偏差约6 hPa.  相似文献   

15.
This study investigates the roles of different physical processes in the oceanic response to tropical cyclones(TCs) in the Pacific, using an ocean general circulation model with several numerical experiments. A case study is focused on Typhoon Rammasun, which passed through the northwestern tropical Pacific in May 2008. TC-induced wind stress fields are extracted using a locally-weighted regression(Loess) method from a six-hourly Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform satellite scatterometer wind product. By comparing model experiments with TC wind forcing being explicitly included or not, the effects of TC on the ocean are isolated in a clean way. The local oceanic response is characterized by a cooling in the surface layer that persists along the typhoon track as a cold wake, and a deepening of the mixed layer(ML). The TC-induced wind can affect the ocean through the momentum effects, the ML processes(the stirring effect on the ML depth), and heat flux(via wind speed), repectively.Analyses of numerical experiments with these different underlying processes explicitly represented or not indicate that vertical mixing and upwelling are dominant processes responsible for surface cooling, while the surface heat flux also plays a nonnegligible role. Specifically, vertical mixing, upwelling and surface heat flux account for respectively ～53%, ～31% and ～16% of the sea surface temperature cooling. However, for the ML response, the vertical mixing and surface heat flux are dominant processes for the ML deepening, while the contribution from upwelling process is negligible. This study provides new insights into how TC-indcued wind forcing affects the ocean by isolating each different individual process in a clear way, which differs from previous direct heat budget analyses.  相似文献   

16.
施春华  李慧  郑彬  郭栋 《地球物理学报》2013,56(8):2594-2602
采用ERA-Interim气象分析资料、云顶亮温TBB资料、Cloudsat云雷达资料、降雨量资料等,对2009年6月10日至12日我国东北地区的一次冷涡天气过程进行研究,重现了该冷涡的精细三维结构和演变过程.分析表明冷涡发生前,东北亚地区处于南北双槽结构之间,随后北槽向赤道发展切断后形成东北冷涡.南槽背景的冷涡热力结构特殊,强冷空气集中在涡内西北象限,暖湿空气在东北象限,南部为相对中性空气,该配置导致北部暖锋强盛,西部冷锋仅在发展初期较强,冷涡过程没有经典挪威学派的气旋锢囚锋出现.冷涡发展初期,狭长冷舌快速入侵南下,冷舌前冷锋对流降水较强,冷舌后部左侧还有暖锋降水;冷涡发展后期,冷锋减弱,冷锋上的高层云停止降水,系统内主要为冷涡北部的暖锋雨层云降水;冷涡成熟后,中心辐合加强,有较强的对流性降水.  相似文献   

17.
Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde.  相似文献   

18.
The vertical coupling(VC)process and mechanism during the genesis of a tropical cyclone(TC)implied by the weak vertical shear of horizontal wind,one of the key factors impacting TC genesis,constitute important but unanswered fundamental scientific problems.This paper carried out a targeted investigation of this problem through numerical simulation and theoretical analyses.The main conclusions are as follows.Even if TC genesis occurs in a barotropic environment,a VC process still occurs between the trough(vortex)at the middle level and that at the lower level in the TC embryo area.VC mainly occurs at the tropical disturbance(TDS)stage.Only after the VC is accomplished can the tropical depression(TD)organize further by itself and develop into the tropical storm(TS)stage or the stronger tropical typhoon(TY)stage through the WISHE(wind-induced surface heat exchange)mechanism.In the VC process,vortical hot towers(VHTs)play vertical connecting roles and are the actual practitioners of the VC.Through the VHTs’vertical connections,the middle-and lower-troposphere trough axes move towards each other and realize the VC.VHTs can produce intensive cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere,which is mainly contributed by the stretching term.The tilting term can produce a single dipole or double dipole of vorticity,but the positive and negative vorticity pairs offset each other roughly.While the stretching term ensures that the cyclonic rotations of the wind field in the middle and lower levels tend to be consistent,the tilting term acts to uniformly distribute the horizontal wind in the vertical direction,and both terms facilitate the VC of the wind field.With the latent heat of condensation,VHTs heat the upper and middle troposphere so that the 352 K equivalent potential temperature contour penetrates vertically into the 925–300 hPa layer,realizing the VC of the temperature field.While forming cloud towers,VHTs make the ambient air become moist and nearly saturated so that the 95%relative humidity contour penetrates vertically into the 925–400 hPa layer,realizing the VC of the humidity field.Due to the collective contributions of the VHTs,the embryo area develops into a warm,nearly saturated core with strong cyclonic vorticity.The barotropic instability mechanism may also occur during TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific and provide rich large-scale environmental vorticity for TC genesis.The axisymmetric distribution of VHTs is an important sign of TC genesis.When a TC is about to form,there may be accompanying phenomena between the axisymmetric process of VHTs and vortex Rossby waves.  相似文献   

19.
Ocean Dynamics - The surface enthalpy fluxes (latent and sensible heat fluxes) provide the necessary energy to intensify tropical cyclones (TCs). The surface momentum fluxes modify the intensity of...  相似文献   

20.
Early in the1970s,Madden and Julian[1,2]first re-vealed the existence of eastward propagation of the intraseasonal(or30-60-day)oscillation(ISO)in the zonal wind fields over the tropics.Later on,the northward propagation of the ISO activities over the Indian Ocean was discovered by Yasunari[3,4],which accounts for the seasonal variations of the Indian summer monsoon.Similar studies were carried out on the low-frequency oscillation activities related to the ENSO and the East Asian summer …  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号