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1.
《New Astronomy》2021
We study galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation during solar cycle 24. For this study we utilize neutron monitor data together with sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (SRF) data. We plot hysteresis curve between the GCR intensity and SSN, and GCR intensity and SRF. We performed time-lag correlation analysis to determine the time lag between GCR intensity and solar activity parameters. The time lag is determined not only for the whole solar cycle, but also during the two polarity states of the heliosphere (A<0 and A>0) in solar cycle 24. We notice differences in time lags during two polarity epochs of the solar cycle. We discuss these differences in the light of existing modulation models. We compare the results of this very weak solar activity cycle with the corresponding results reported for the previous comparatively more active solar cycles. 相似文献
2.
We investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the high-degree mode frequencies calculated over localized regions of the Sun during the extended minimum phase between solar cycles 23 and 24. The frequency shifts measured relative to the spatial average over the solar disk indicate that the correlation between the frequency shift and magnetic field strength during the low-activity phase is weak. The disk-averaged frequency shifts computed relative to a minimal activity period also reveal a moderate correlation with different activity indices, with a maximum linear correlation of about 72?%. From the investigation of the frequency shifts at different latitudinal bands, we do not find a consensus period for the onset of solar cycle 24. The frequency shifts corresponding to most of the latitudes in the northern hemisphere and 30° south of the equator indicate the minimum epoch to be February 2008, which is earlier than inferred from solar activity indices. 相似文献
3.
Tamer Ataç 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1989,47(2):165-170
Short-term variations of the last solar activity cycle were studied by the flare and coronal indices using Gleissberg method. Systematic short-term variations are found from their course during the 21st solar activity cycle. Comparison of their autocorrelograms constructed by the new set of data obtained from the magnitude of the fluctuations showed us the existence of the phase shift between the temporal variations of the two indices. 相似文献
4.
We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22. These relations are applied to estimate the change in mean frequency for the cycle 21 and 23. A remarkable agreement between the calculated and observed frequency shifts for the ascending phase of cycle 23, indicates that the derived relations are independent of epoch and do not change significantly from cycle to cycle. We propose that these relations could be used to estimate the shift in p-mode frequencies for past, present and future solar activity cycles, if the solar activity index is known. The maximum frequency shift for cycle 23 is estimated to be 265±90 nHz, corresponding to a predicted maximum smoothed sunspot number 118.1±35. 相似文献
5.
Using the smoothed time series of maximum CME speed index for solar cycle 23, it is found that this index, analyzed jointly with six other solar activity indicators, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. The total solar irradiance, coronal index, solar radio flux (10.7?cm), Mg?ii core-to-wing ratio, sunspot area, and H?? flare index follow different paths for the ascending and the descending phases of solar cycle?23, while a saturation effect exists at the maximum phase of the cycle. However, the separations between the paths are not the same for the different solar activity indicators used: the H?? flare index and total solar irradiance depict broad loops, while the Mg?ii core-to-wing ratio and sunspot area depict narrow hysteresis loops. The lag times of these indices with respect to the maximum CME speed index are discussed, confirming that the hysteresis represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission. 相似文献
6.
K. J. Li 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):169-177
Five solar-activity indices – the monthly-mean sunspot numbers from January 1945 to March 2008, the monthly-mean sunspot areas
during the period of May 1874 to March 2008, the monthly numbers of sunspot groups from May 1874 to May 2008, the monthly-mean
flare indices from January 1966 to December 2006, and the numbers of solar filaments per Carrington rotation in the time interval
of solar rotations 876 to 1823 – have been used to show a systematic time delay between northern and southern hemispheric
solar activities in a cycle. It is found that solar activity does not occur synchronously in the northern and southern hemispheres,
and there is a systematic time lag or lead (phase shift) between northern and southern hemispheric solar activity in a cycle.
About an eight-cycle period is inferred to exist in such phase shifts. The activity on the Sun may be governed by two different
and coupled processes, not by a single process. 相似文献
7.
We study the hysteresis effect between the solar flare index and cosmic ray intensity for the past 37 years from January 1, 1965 to December 31, 2001 on a daily basis. We show that smoothed time series of flare index and the daily Calgary Galactic Cosmic Ray intensity values exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the studied period. The shapes of these differences vary from cycle to cycle. So we investigate the momentary time lags between the two time series for the odd and even cycles. 相似文献
8.
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting
the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual
mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be
less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the
descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of solar flares in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun
that occurred during the period 1996 to 2003. This period of investigation includes the ascending phase, the maximum and part
of the descending phase of solar cycle 23. It is revealed that the flare activity during this cycle is low compared to the
previous solar cycle, indicating the violation of Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. The distribution of flares with respect to heliographic
latitudes shows a significant asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere which is maximum during the minimum phase
of the solar cycle. The present study indicates that the activity dominates the northern hemisphere in general during the
rising phase of the cycle (1997–2000). The dominance of northern hemisphere shifted towards the southern hemisphere after
the solar maximum in 2000 and remained there in the successive years. Although the annual variations in the asymmetry time
series during cycle 23 are quite different from cycle 22, they are comparable to cycle 21. 相似文献
10.
Magnetic fields give rise to distinctive features in different solar atmospheric regimes. To study this, time variations of
the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot area, each index arising from different physical conditions, were compared with
the solar composite irradiance throughout cycle 23. Rieger-type periodicities in these time series were calculated using Fourier
and wavelet transforms (WTs). The peaks of the wavelet power of these periodicities appeared between the years 1999 and 2002.
We found that the solar irradiance oscillations are less significant than those in the other indices during this cycle. The
irradiance shows non-periodic fluctuations during this time interval. The peaks of the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot
total area were seen around 2000.4, 1999.9 and 2001.0, respectively. These periodicities appeared intermittently and were
not simultaneous in different solar activity indices during the three years of the maximum phase of solar cycle 23. 相似文献
11.
F. Moreno-Insertis S. K. Solanki 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,313(2):411-422
The frequencies of solar p-modes are known to change over the solar cycle. There is also recent evidence that the relation between frequency shift of low-degree modes and magnetic flux or other activity indicators differs between the rising and falling phases of the solar cycle, leading to a hysteresis in such diagrams. We consider the influence of the changing large-scale surface distribution of the magnetic flux on low-degree ( l ≤3) p-mode frequencies. To that end, we use time-dependent models of the magnetic flux distribution and study the ensuing frequency shifts of modes with different order and degree as a function of time. The resulting curves are periodic functions (in simple cases just sine curves) shifted in time by different amounts for the different modes. We show how this may easily lead to hysteresis cycles comparable to those observed. Our models suggest that high-latitude fields are necessary to produce a significant difference in hysteresis between odd- and even-degree modes. Only magnetic field distributions within a small parameter range are consistent with the observations by Jiménez-Reyes et al. Observations of p-mode frequency shifts are therefore capable of providing an additional diagnostic of the magnetic field near the solar poles. The magnetic distribution that is consistent with the p-mode observations also appears reasonable compared with direct measurements of the magnetic field. 相似文献
12.
S. C. Tripathy Brajesh Kumar Kiran Jain A. Bhatnagar 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2000,21(3-4):357-360
Using intermediate degreep-mode frequency data sets for solar cycle 22, we find that the frequency shifts and magnetic activity indicators show a &#x201C;hysteresis&#x201D;
phenomenon. It is observed that the magnetic indices follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the
solar cycle while for radiative indices, the separation between the paths are well within the error limits. 相似文献
13.
Ambika Singh Anil Kumar Tiwari S. P. Agrawal 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2010,31(2):89-96
A detailed study has been conducted on the long-term changes in the diurnal variation of cosmic rays in terms of high and
low amplitude wave trains event (HAEs/LAEs) during the period 1996–2008 (solar cycle 23), using the neutron monitor data from
Kiel neutron monitoring station. As such, 17 HAE and 48 LAE cases have been detected and analyzed. These HAEs appear quite
dominantly during the declining phase as well as near the maximum of the solar activity cycle 23. In contrast, the low amplitude
events (LAEs) are inversely correlated with solar activity cycle. In fact, LAEs appear quite dominantly during the minimum
phase of the solar activity. When we compare our results for diurnal phase with that observed on an annual average basis,
we notice no significant diurnal phase shift for HAEs as well as for LAEs. Moreover, we find that the high-speed solar wind
streams (HSSWS) do not play any significant role in causing these variations. These results are discussed on the basis of
that observed in earlier cycles. 相似文献
14.
The behavior of the He I 10830 Å infrared triplet parameters in active and quiet solar regions was traced from 1976 until 2000. We analyze the correlation between the central depth of the main He I line component and other solar activity indices: the Wolf number, the radiation flux at a frequency of 2800 MHz, the mean number of flares in sunspot groups, and the mean solar magnetic field. We show that the strong correlation between the He I 10830 Å line depth and the phase of the 11-year solar cycle allows this depth to be effectively used as a new solar activity index both on long time scales (years) and on times scales of the order of a month or even days. The suggested new activity index is shown to have advantages over the universally accepted indices. The depth of the He I 10830 Å line in quiet regions was found to increase from the phase of minimum solar activity to the phase of maximum by a factor of about 2. In active regions, this increase is less than 30%. The differences between the cyclic variations of the chromospheric He I 10830 Å line radiation in active and quiet structures on the solar disk are indicative of the probable differences in the nature of cyclicity and its manifestations in magnetic fields of different spatial scales. The background magnetic fields appear to vary during the solar cycle more strongly than do the local fields associated with sunspots, faculae, and activity complexes. We suggest using regular observations in the He I 10830 Å line to predict solar activity. 相似文献
15.
Series of 110 years of sunspot numbers and indices of geomagnetic activity are used with 17 years of solar wind data in order to study through solar cycles both stream and shock event solar activity. According to their patterns on Bartels diagrams of geomagnetic indices, stable wind streams and transient solar activities are separated from each other. Two classes of stable streams are identified: equatorial streams occurring sporadically, for several months, during the main phase of sunspot cycles and both polar streams established, for several years, at each cycle, before sunspot minimum. Polar streams are the first activity of solar cycles. For study of the relationship between transient geomagnetic phenomena and sunspot activity, we raise the importance of the contribution, at high spot number, of severe storms and, at low spot number, of short lived and unstable streams. Solar wind data are used to check and complete the above results. As a conclusion, we suggest a unified scheme of solar activity evolution with a starting point every eleventh year, a total duration of 17 years and an overlapping of 6 years between the first and the last phase of both successive series of phenomena: first, from polar field reversal to sunspot minimum, a phase of polar wind activity of the beginning cycle is superimposed on the weak contribution of shock events of the ending cycle; secondly, an equatorial phase mostly of shock events is superimposed on a variable contribution of short lived and sporadic stable equatorial stream activities; and thirdly a phase of low latitude shock events is superimposed on the polar stream interval of the following cycle. 相似文献
16.
Using the sunspot numbers reported during the Maunder minimum and the empirical relations between the mode frequencies and
solar activity indices, the variations in the total solar irradiance and 10.7 cm radio flux for the period 1645 to 1715 is
estimated. We find that the total solar irradiance and radio flux during the Maunder minimum decreased by 0.19% and 52% respectively,
as compared to the values for solar cycle 22.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
17.
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996?–?2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996?–?2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003?–?2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results. 相似文献
18.
Long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays were compared with the behavior of various solar activity indices and heliospheric
parameters during the current solar cycle. This study continues previous works where the cosmic-ray intensity for the solar
cycles 20, 21, and 22 was well simulated from the linear combination of the sunspot number, the number of grouped solar flares,
and the geomagnetic index A
p. The application of this model to the current solar cycle characterized by many peculiarities and extreme solar events led
us to study more empirical relations between solar-heliospheric variables, such as the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal
mass ejections, and the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and cosmic-ray modulation. By analyzing monthly cosmic-ray
data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cutoff rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (2.42 GV) the contribution of these parameters
in the ascending, maximum, and descending phases of the cycle was investigated and it is shown that a combination of these
parameters reproduces the majority of the modulation potential variations during this cycle. The approach applied makes it
possible to better describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of the solar maxima, which could not be done before.
An extended study of the time profiles, the correlations, and the time lags of the cosmic-ray intensity against these parameters
using the method of minimizing RMS over all the considered period 1996 – 2006 determines characteristic properties of this
cycle as being an odd cycle. Moreover, the obtained hysteresis curves and a correlative analysis during the positive polarity
(qA>0, where q is the particle charge) and during the negative polarity (qA<0) intervals of the cycle result in significantly different behavior between solar and heliospheric parameters. The time
lag and the correlation coefficient of the cosmic-ray intensity are higher for the solar indices in comparison to the heliospheric
ones. A similar behavior also appears in the case of the intervals with positive and negative polarity of the solar magnetic
field. 相似文献
19.
Usoskin I. G. Kovaltsov G. A. Kananen H. Mursula K. Tanskanen P. J. 《Solar physics》1997,170(2):447-452
Cycles of phase evolution of solar activity and cosmic-ray variations are reconstructed by means of the delay component method, which allows us to study the temporal behaviour of time lag between solar activity and cosmic-ray cycle phases. It is shown that the period of the late 20th cycle was very unusual. We have found a delay in the phase of the solar activity cycle with respect to that of cosmic rays and discuss the heliospheric conditions responsible for this delay. 相似文献
20.
Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from 10Be in ice cores. 相似文献