共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Joseph Park Jayantha Obeysekera Michelle Irizarry Jenifer Barnes Paul Trimble Winifred Park-Said 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):109-128
Water resource management in South Florida faces nearly intractable problems, in part due to weather and climate variability. Rising sea level and coastal storm surge are two phenomena with significant impacts on natural systems, fresh water supplies and flood drainage capability. However, decision support information regarding management of water resources in response to storm surge is not well developed. In an effort to address this need we analyze long term tidal records from Key West, Pensacola and Mayport Florida to extract surge distributions, to which we apply a nonlinear eustatic sea level rise model to project storm surge return levels and periods. Examination of climate connections reveals a statistically significant dependence between surge distributions and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Based on a recent probabilistic model for AMO phase changes, we develop AMO-dependent surge distributions. These AMO-dependent surge projections are used to examine the flood control response of a coastal water management structure as an example of how climate dependent water resource forcings can be used in the formulation of decision support tools. 相似文献
2.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):277-296
Abstract Sea level responses to climatic variability (CV) and change (CC) signals at multiple temporal scales (interdecadal to monthly) are statistically examined using long‐term water level records from Prince Rupert (PR) on the north coast of British Columbia. Analysis of observed sea level data from PR, the longest available record in the region, indicates an annual average mean sea level (MSL) trend of +1.4±0.6 mm yr?1 for the period (1939–2003), as opposed to the longer term trend of 1±0.4 mm yr?1 (1909–2003). This suggests a possible acceleration in MSL trends during the latter half of the twentieth century. According to the results of this study, the causes behind this acceleration can be attributed not only to the effects of global warming but also to cyclic climate variability patterns such as the strong positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase that has been present since the mid‐1970s. The linear regression model based on highest sea levels (MAXSL) of each calendar year showed a trend exceeding twice that (3.4 mm yr?1) of MSL. Previous work shows that the influence of vertical crustal motions on relative sea level are negligible at PR. Relations between sea levels and known CV indices (e.g., the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), PDO, Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), and Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI)) are explored to identify potential controls of CV phenomena (e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), PDO) on regional MSL and MAXSL. Linear and non‐linear statistical methods including correlation analyses, multiple regression, Cumulative Sum (CumSum) analysis, and Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) are used. Results suggest that ENSO forcing (as shown by the MEI and NOI indices) exerts significant influence on winter sea level fluctuations, while the PDO dominates summer sea level variability. The observational evidence at PR also shows that, during the period 1939–2003, these cyclic shorter temporal scale sea level fluctuations in response to CV were significantly greater than the longer term sea‐level rise trend by as much as an order of magnitude and with trends over twice that of MSL. Such extreme sea level fluctuations related to CV events should be the immediate priority for the development of coastal adaptation strategies, as they are superimposed on long‐term MSL trends, resulting in greater hazard than longer term MSL rise trends alone. 相似文献
3.
Jennifer L. Irish Alison Sleath Mary A. Cialone Thomas R. Knutson Robert E. Jensen 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):635-649
Global warming may result in substantial sea level rise and more intense hurricanes over the next century, leading to more severe coastal flooding. Here, observed climate and sea level trends over the last century (c. 1900s to 2000s) are used to provide insight regarding future coastal inundation trends. The actual impacts of Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans are compared with the impacts of a similar hypothetical hurricane occurring c. 1900. Estimated regional sea level rise since 1900 of 0.75 m, which contains a dominant land subsidence contribution (0.57 m), serves as a ‘prototype’ for future climate-change induced sea level rise in other regions. Landform conditions c. 1900 were estimated by changing frictional resistance based on expected additional wetlands at lower sea levels. Surge simulations suggest that flood elevations would have been 15 to 60 % lower c. 1900 than the conditions observed in 2005. This drastic change suggests that significantly more flood damage occurred in 2005 than would have occurred if sea level and climate conditions had been like those c. 1900. We further show that, in New Orleans, sea level rise dominates surge-induced flooding changes, not only by increasing mean sea level, but also by leading to decreased wetland area. Together, these effects enable larger surges. Projecting forward, future global sea level changes of the magnitude examined here are expected to lead to increased flooding in coastal regions, even if the storm climate is unchanged. Such flooding increases in densely populated areas would presumably lead to more widespread destruction. 相似文献
4.
Abstract Changes to the Beaufort Sea shoreline occur due to the impact of storms and rising relative sea level. During the open‐water season (June to October), storm winds predominantly from the north‐west generate waves and storm surges which are effective in eroding thawing ice‐rich cliffs and causing overwash of gravel beaches. Climate change is expected to be enhanced in Arctic regions relative to the global mean and include accelerated sea‐level rise, more frequent extreme storm winds, more frequent and extreme storm surge flooding, decreased sea‐ice extent, more frequent and higher waves, and increased temperatures. We investigate historical records of wind speeds and directions, water levels, sea‐ice extent and temperature to identify variability in past forcing and use the Canadian Global Coupled Model ensembles 1 and 2 (CGCM1 and CGCM2) climate modelling results to develop a scenario forcing future change of Beaufort Sea shorelines. This scenario and future return periods of peak storm wind speeds and water levels likely indicate increased forcing of coastal change during the next century resulting in increased rates of cliff erosion and beach migration, and more extreme flooding. 相似文献
5.
John Hunter 《Climatic change》2012,113(2):239-252
Projections of climate change are inherently uncertain, leading to considerable debate over suitable allowances for future changes such as sea-level rise (an ??allowance?? is, in this context, the amount by which something, such as the height of coastal infrastructure, needs to be altered to cope with climate change). Words such as ??plausible?? and ??high-end?? abound, with little objective or statistically valid support. It is firstly shown that, in cases in which extreme events are modified by an uncertain change in the average (e.g. flooding caused by a rise in mean sea level), it is preferable to base future allowances on estimates of the expected frequency of exceedances rather than on the probability of at least one exceedance. A simple method of determining a future sea-level rise allowance is then derived, based on the projected rise in mean sea level and its uncertainty, and on the variability of present tides and storm surges (??storm tides??). The method preserves the expected frequency of flooding events under a given projection of sea-level rise. It is assumed that the statistics of storm tides relative to mean sea level are unchanged. The method is demonstrated using the GESLA (Global Extreme Sea-Level Analysis) data set of roughly hourly sea levels, covering 198 sites over much of the globe. Two possible projections of sea-level rise are assumed for the 21st century: one based on the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a larger one based on research since the Fourth Assessment Report. 相似文献
6.
This study presents an assessment of the potential impacts of sea level rise on the New Jersey, USA coastal region. We produce
two projections of sea level rise for the New Jersey coast over the next century and apply them to a digital elevation model
to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to permanent inundation and episodic flooding due to storm
events. We estimate future coastline displacement and its consequences based on direct inundation only, which provides a lower
bound on total coastline displacement. The objective of this study is to illustrate methodologies that may prove useful to
policy makers despite the large uncertainties inherent in analysis of local impacts of climate and sea level change. Our findings
suggest that approximately 1% to 3% of the land area of New Jersey would be permanently inundated over the next century and
coastal storms would temporarily flood low-lying areas up to 20 times more frequently. Thus, absent human adaptation, by 2100
New Jersey would experience substantial land loss and alteration of the coastal zone, causing widespread impacts on coastal
development and ecosystems. Given the results, we identify future research needs and suggest that an important next step would
be for policy makers to explore potential adaptation strategies. 相似文献
7.
Past research on the economic impacts of aclimate-induced sea level rise has been based on thegradual erosion of the shoreline, and humanadaptation. Erosion which is accelerated by sea levelrise may also increase the vulnerability to stormdamage by decreasing the distance between the shoreand structures, and by eroding protective coastalfeatures (dunes). We present methods of assessingthis storm damage in coastal regions where structuralprotection is not pursued. Starting from the boundingcases of no foresight and perfectforesight of Yohe et al. (1996), we use adisaggregated analysis which models the random natureof storms, and models market valuation and privateinvestor decisions dynamically. Using data from theNational Flood Insurance Program and a hypotheticalcommunity, we estimate that although the total stormdamage can be large, the increase in storm damageattributable to sea level rise is small (<5% oftotal sea level rise damages). These damages,however, could become more significant under otherreasonable assumptions or where dune erosion increasesstorm damage. 相似文献
8.
Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macau and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records(daily higher high water heights) and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960 s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920 s at Macau, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970 s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals. 相似文献
9.
Obtained are the estimates of the Black Sea level trends for the period of 1992–2005 as derived from the tide-gage and satellite altimetry data. An estimated rate of the mean sea level rate calculated from the averaged altimetry data is 7.6 ± 0.3 mm/year that is by 2–3 times higher than the estimates for the previous periods. Such high values of the trend are evidently associated with the sea level variability features at the 10-year temporal scale. The Black Sea level trend is characterized by the high spatial variability: it amounts to 8–9.5 mm/year in the coastal areas of the Black Sea basin that exceeds the trend in the deep-water part by 1.5–2 times (4.5–6 mm/year). Such distribution is an effect of the cyclonic Rim Current intensification. Based on the difference in the sea level trends obtained from in-situ and altimetry measurements, the velocity of the vertical crustal motion is estimated for the Ukrainian coastal stations of the Black Sea. 相似文献
10.
Global Warming and Coastal Erosion 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
One of the most certain consequences of global warming is an increase of global (eustatic) sea level. The resulting inundation from rising seas will heavily impact low-lying areas; at least 100 million persons live within one meter of mean sea level and are at increased risk in the coming decades. The very existence of some island states and deltaic coasts is threatened by sea level rise. An additional threat affecting some of the most heavily developed and economically valuable real estate will come from an exacerbation of sandy beach erosion. As the beach is lost, fixed structures nearby are increasingly exposed to the direct impact of storm waves, and will ultimately be damaged or destroyed unless expensive protective measures are taken. It has long been speculated that the underlying rate of long-term sandy beach erosion is two orders of magnitude greater than the rate of rise of sea level, so that any significant increase of sea level has dire consequences for coastal inhabitants. We present in this paper an analytical treatment that indicates there is a highly multiplicative association between long-term sandy beach erosion and sea level rise, and use a large and consistent data base of shoreline position field data to show that there is reasonable quantitative agreement with observations of 19th and 20th century sea levels and coastal erosion. This result means that the already-severe coastal erosion problems witnessed in the 20th century will be exacerbated in the 21st century under plausible global warming scenarios. 相似文献
11.
Interannual to multidecadal modes in ocean/atmosphere dynamics in the North Atlantic region have been identified using sea
salt aerosol proxy records from northern Greenland ice cores over the last 1,000 years. Sea salt concentrations show a consistent
relationship with anomalies in the meridional pressure gradient over the North Atlantic region over all considered time scales.
These pressure anomalies are connected to shifts in storm tracks, leading to lower pressure and higher storm activity, hence,
higher sea salt export over the Greenland ice sheet. Two modes of long-term variability with a period of 10.4 years and 62 years
could be identified. The latter is connected to long-term changes in sea surface temperature (SST) as documented by a high
correlation of North Atlantic SST with our sea salt record over the last 150 years. Long-term reconstruction of these modes
shows that the 10.4-year cycle has been a phenomenon persistent over the last millennium while the 62-year cycle has been
mainly active after 1700. Accordingly, the longer-term persistence of this multidecadal variability in sea salt points also
to significant variations in SST over the last 300 years. 相似文献
12.
Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Amartya K. Saha Sonali Saha Jimi Sadle Jiang Jiang Michael S. Ross Ren�� M. Price Leonel S. L. O. Sternberg Kristie S. Wendelberger 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):81-108
Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999?C2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe. 相似文献
13.
This paper analyses the spatiotemporal variability of extreme hydrometeorological events at the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea. Extreme precipitation events and storm surges determine to the largest extent the contemporary transformations of sea coastal geoecosystems and represent the major factors that disturb their functioning. The statistical characteristics of these values were computed from the data of six meteorological and tide-gage stations located at the Baltic seaside. Daily data on the amount of precipitation and the sea level for the period of 1966–2009 were used for the study. Annual and daily maximum values of precipitation and sea level are presented for the Southern Baltic coast. The threshold values of the hydrometeorological parameters considered in the study allow assessing the hazard caused by the disturbance of the functional stability of the sea coastal geoecosystems. 相似文献
14.
John E. Bardach 《Climatic change》1989,15(1-2):117-150
Updated from a background paper for the Villach September 1987 Workshop on Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change, the article first deals with varying effects on fish production in the coastal zone. Assessment of the extent and direction of these effects will have to await regionalized predictions of temperature and related changes. Exploitation of non-living coastal resources which follows is not likely to be affected by a sea level rise, but recreation will suffer through land loss while aquaculture may be favored in some and disfavored in others of its modes. Estuaries and atolls can be severely impacted by a sea level rise both by loss of valuable, if not essential, land; they are also more vulnerable to salt water incursion, storm surges, and typhoons. Tropical river mouth, especially in Asia and arctic regions, are treated. Anticipatory actions toward mitigation of effects of a sea level rise are essentially those of coastal zone planning with the caveat that technical fixes eventually to be employed have to be adjusted to the highly site-specific characteristics of the land water interface. 相似文献
15.
Globally-coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature or mean sea level. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional/local scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year ocean model experiments for the Western Baltic Sea. In order to simulate storm surges in this region, we have used the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) as a high-resolution local model (spatial resolution ≈ 1?km), nested into a regional atmospheric and regional oceanic model in a fully baroclinic downscaling approach. The downscaling is based on the global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The projections are imbedded into two greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period 2000–2100, each with two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. We use this modelling system to statistically reproduce the present distribution of surge extremes. The usage of the high-resolution local model leads to an improvement in surge heights of at least 10% compared to the driving model. To quantify uncertainties associated with climate projections, we investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and changes in mean sea levels. The analysis revealed a linear dependence of surge height and mean sea level, although the slope parameter is spatially varying. Furthermore, the modelling system is used to project possible changes within the next century. The results show that the sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than does increased wind speed. The simulations further indicate that the changes in storm surge height in the scenarios can be consistently explained by the increase in mean sea level and variation in wind speed. 相似文献
16.
To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an “ability-to-pay” parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people flooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although there is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the “commitment to sea-level rise” irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits. 相似文献
17.
The sea level variability in the Northwestern Pacific based on the observations at tide-gage stations of JASL system is considered. The long-term seasonal variations of the sea level at these stations are presented and the climatic trends, variability range, and standard deviations of monthly mean values of the sea level from the long-term seasonal values are computed. The frequency of the sea level exceeding relative to the moving average with the shift of 30 days is computed. It is shown that, contrary to general opinion, the frequency of the sea level exceeding relative to the moving average in the Northwestern Pacific does not increase on the whole under conditions of the climate warming and sea level rise. 相似文献
18.
Assessing climate change impacts,sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
Stéphane Hallegatte Nicola Ranger Olivier Mestre Patrice Dumas Jan Corfee-Morlot Celine Herweijer Robert Muir Wood 《Climatic change》2011,104(1):113-137
This study illustrates a methodology to assess the economic impacts of climate change at a city scale and benefits of adaptation,
taking the case of sea level rise and storm surge risk in the city of Copenhagen, capital of Denmark. The approach is a simplified
catastrophe risk assessment, to calculate the direct costs of storm surges under scenarios of sea level rise, coupled to an
economic input–output (IO) model. The output is a risk assessment of the direct and indirect economic impacts of storm surge
under climate change, including, for example, production and job losses and reconstruction duration, and the benefits of investment
in upgraded sea defences. The simplified catastrophe risk assessment entails a statistical analysis of storm surge characteristics,
geographical-information analysis of population and asset exposure combined with aggregated vulnerability information. For
the city of Copenhagen, it is found that in absence of adaptation, sea level rise would significantly increase flood risks.
Results call for the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning, as one part of a comprehensive strategy to manage
the implications of climate change in the city. Mitigation policies can also aid adaptation by limiting the pace of future
sea level rise. 相似文献
19.
Isaac Boateng 《Climatic change》2012,114(2):273-293
Sea-level rise is a major coastal issue in the 21st century because many of the world??s built assets are located in the coastal zone. Coastal erosion and flooding are serious threats along the coast of Ghana, particularly, the eastern coast where the Volta delta is located. Past human interventions, climate change and the resultant rise in sea-levels, increased storm intensity and torrential rainfall have been blamed for these problems. Accelerated sea-level rise and storm surge pose serious threat to coastal habitat, bio-diversity and socio-economic activities in the coastal zone of Ghana and elsewhere. There is the need for an holistic assessment of the impacts of sea-level rise on the coast zone in order to formulate appropriate adaptation policies and strategies to mitigate the possible effects. Using the eastern coast of Ghana as a case study, this paper assesses the physical impacts of accelerated sea level rise and storm surge on the coastal environment. It evaluates adaptation policies and plans that could be implemented to accommodate the present and any future impacts. Field investigation and Geographic Information System (GIS) are among the methods used for the assessment. The outcome of the assessment has provided comprehensive knowledge of the potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise and storm surge on the eastern coast. It has facilitated identification of management units, the appraisal of alternate adaptation policies and the selection of the best policy options based upon the local conditions and environmental sustainability. Among other things, this paper reveals that the eastern coast of Ghana is highly vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and therefore, requires sustainable adaptation policies and plans to manage the potential impacts. It recommends that various accommodation policies, which enable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat, could be adapted to accommodate vulnerable settlements in the eastern coast of Ghana. 相似文献
20.
Abstract A powerful storm passed over the coastal waters of eastern Canada on the 21 and 22 January 2000 causing significant damage to coastal infrastructure. The storm generated a large (>1.4 m) storm surge in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence that unfortunately coincided with a high spring tide. This resulted in record high water levels in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (e.g., the highest level at Charlottetown since records began in 1911) and severe flooding around Prince Edward Island and along the eastern shore of New Brunswick. During January 2000, a recently developed storm surge forecast system was running in pre‐operational mode at Dalhousie University. The core of the forecast system is a depth‐averaged, non‐linear, barotropic ocean model driven by forecast winds and air pressures produced by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's regional atmospheric forecast model. In this study we assess the forecast skill of the surge model for the 21 January storm by comparing its 24‐hour forecasts with two independent hourly dataseis: (i) sea levels recorded by 12 tide gauges located in eastern Canada and the north‐eastern United States, and (ii) depth‐mean currents recorded by an acoustic Doppler current profiler deployed on the outer Scotian Shelf. Overall, the forecasts of coastal sea level and depth‐mean currents are reasonable and have forecast errors below about 0.1 m and 0.1 m s?1 respectively. 相似文献