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1.
冰湖是研究气候变化的重要指标之一,了解冰湖分布和变化的特征,对认识冰川与气候之间关系和冰湖溃决灾害评估
有着重要意义。运用遥感资料监测念青唐古拉山西段近40a来的冰湖分布及其变化,并结合DEM 研究冰湖垂直分布的变化,探
讨影响冰湖分布和变化的可能因素。研究结果表明:(1)研究区冰湖数量和面积近年来都呈迅速增加趋势,冰湖增加150个,冰湖
面积增加4.384km2。气温升高、冰川融水增加是冰湖增多和面积增大的主要原因;(2)冰湖垂直分布变化明显,新增冰湖个数峰
值位于海拔5500~5700m,占新增冰湖总数的61%;新增冰湖面积峰值在海拔5400~5700m,占新增湖总面积的44%;冰湖面
积在大部分海拔高度上均呈扩张态势;(3)海拔高于5400m的区域,1991-2009年新增的冰湖数量远多于1972-1991年。冰湖
在高海拔区分布的变化对念青唐古拉山区冰川消融以及气候垂直变化具有一定的指示作用。   相似文献   

2.
冰湖溃决灾害是指冰湖坝体突然破坏引发溃决洪水或溃决泥石流的现象,对下游人类活动和自然环境造成严重影响。近年来,藏东南地区冰川快速退缩,冰湖数量和规模显著增加,冰湖溃决事件广泛发生。基于1995-2021年多时相Landsat系列遥感影像、Sentinel-2A遥感影像,结合RAMMS水文动力学模型方法,对藏东南地区多依弄巴流域内冰湖、冰川进行动态变化分析,模拟冰崩危险体触发冰湖溃决和冰湖溃决泥石流的演进过程,根据泥石流模拟中的流速和流深对冰湖溃决可能影响的区域进行危险性分区。结果表明:流域内冰川面积由1995年的14.05 km2退缩为2021年的9.43 km2,年均退缩率约为0.15 km2/a。流域内共发育3处冰崩危险体,均可能触发冰湖溃决。潜在危险冰湖在全溃情况下,溃决泥石流会冲出沟口堵塞然乌湖湖口和帕隆藏布主河道,对下游居民和道路造成影响,影响范围约4.05 km2,其中高危险性区域约2.55 km2。危险性评价结果可为多依弄巴流域未来土地利用规划和防灾减灾提供依据,也能为藏东南地区冰湖溃决型泥石流危险评估提供参考。   相似文献   

3.
冰湖作为冰川融水主要储蓄载体,能在一定程度延缓区域冰川淡水资源流失,但也为冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, GLOFs)、滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害发生提供了孕灾场所,是众多山地冰川灾害链的重要环节。升温、极端气候变化扰动下,冰川物质亏损/减薄速率进一步加剧,冰湖形态变化速率加快、GLOFs发生频次与规模有所提升、灾害影响效应愈发显著,对高海拔山地冰川区下游居民生命财产和基础设施安全带来潜在风险。鉴于此,本文以冰湖与GLOFs研究为主题,首先,通过冰湖研究文献计量分析确定了近些年研究热点专题;其次,围绕山地冰川冰湖与GLOFs研究的3个主要方向：冰湖与GLOFs遥感监测、冰湖时空演化与冰川变化分析及未来潜在冰湖探测、冰湖灾害风险评估与GLOFs案例研究,遴选10项重要专题内容,分门别类、系统梳理总结、剖析了国内外研究进展,阐述了当下研究存在不足;最后,针对所选专题结合技术发展趋势与研究热点问题,围绕冰湖形态信息与GLOFs智能提取、冰川-冰(前/面)湖系统演化及其气候变化响应关系、冰湖监测预警与灾害防治内容,对未来研究做了一定展望,以期为山地冰川冰湖...  相似文献   

4.
青藏高原冰川变化遥感监测研究综述   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
在全球变暖影响下,青藏高原冰川消融造成的冰川径流增大、冰湖溃决等问题威胁着山区及其周边居民的生命财产安全,对青藏高原冰川变化的研究日益紧迫。本文综述了国内外山地冰川变化遥感监测手段的发展、冰川面积及冰面高程变化的遥感监测研究现状、存在问题与发展趋势,并总结了中国青藏高原冰川变化遥感监测研究的主要成果。此外,本文基于2003-2009年ICESat/GLAS数据,计算了青藏高原各山区冰面高程变化及其冰川消融量。结果显示：青藏高原冰川面积持续减少,青藏高原冰面高程的平均变化为-0.24±0.03 m/a,冰川融水量为-14.86±11.88 km3/a,冰川变化呈现从青藏高原东、南外缘山区往内陆与西、北部山区减慢的时空特征。  相似文献   

5.
冰川变化监测对生态灾害预防、区域水资源调控、气候变化研究等意义重大。利用冰川在雷达干涉影像上表现出失相干这一特性,选用1998年ERS 1/2与2018年 Sentinel-1A重轨单视复数SAR数据,通过相干系数取阈值的方法获取东帕米尔高原两个时期的冰川边界,以Landsat TM/OLI影像和全球陆地冰川空间监测计划发布的数据验证本文冰川边界提取的精度,从而分析冰川变化。结果表明：① 拟合研究区相干系数图上相干系数γ与对应像元个数的曲线关系,冰川区像元个数会在低相干区域积累形成一个小的波峰。曲线一阶导数变缓的点（冰川区向非冰川区过渡的转折点）即为所选阈值点,利用SAR相干系数取阈值法提取的冰川边界与光学遥感影像结合RGI6.0数据提取的验证冰川边界具有较好的一致性,SAR干涉相干系数提取冰川边界的方法是可行而有效的,ERS 1/2与Sentinel-1A提取的冰川总面积精度均在90%以上,而且SAR数据能够有效提取光学遥感影像难以识别的冰川表碛覆盖;② 1998年和2018年东帕米尔高原冰川总面积减少了318.59 km2,年平均变化速率为-15.93 km2/a,冰川退缩面积占冰川总面积的23%;③ 对大、中型规模冰川来说,表碛覆盖型冰川退缩较其他冰川明显;从坡向上来看,20年各个坡向冰川均有所退缩,其中东南坡冰川退缩最多,西坡冰川退缩最少;从海拔上来看,1998年冰川集中分布在4519~5421 m海拔区间内,2018年集中分布在4682~5320 m海拔区间内;在3325~5710 m海拔区间内冰川退缩明显,4915 m海拔附近达到退缩极大值。  相似文献   

6.
高原湖泊的动态变化对区域水循环具有重要影响。受全球气候变化的影响,青藏高原湖泊自20世纪90年代开始呈现剧烈扩张趋势。为揭示近年来青藏高原湖泊面积的时空变化规律,本文提出了一种改进的半自动湖泊提取算法,结合环境减灾卫星（HJ-1A/1B）和Landsat系列卫星影像数据,对青藏高原内流流域中面积大于50 km2的127个湖泊进行了连续6年的动态监测,并分析了该区域2009-2014年湖泊面积时空变化特征。研究结果表明,该区域湖泊整体呈现显著扩张趋势,年均变化速率为231.89 km2yr-1（0.87 %yr-1）,6年间湖泊面积扩张速率有所减缓。其中,扩张湖泊有104个,收缩湖泊有23个,变化速率分别为271.08 km2yr-1（1.02 % yr-1）和-39.19 km2yr-1（-0.15 %yr-1）。不同区域湖泊面积变化具有明显差异,主要表现为东部及北部大部分区域湖泊扩张,南部地区大部分湖泊面积稳定,萎缩湖泊主要分布于研究区四周。最后,本文通过分析冰川融水补给对湖泊面积变化的影响,发现存在冰川融水补给的湖泊面积变化率远大于不存在冰川融水补给的湖泊。由此可见,近年来冰川融水的增加是促进青藏高原内流流域湖泊扩张的主要因素之一。  相似文献   

7.
中国耕地变化区的气候背景对比分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
研究我国耕地变化区的气候背景,对于了解耕地资源的生产能力,评价耕地占补平衡政策的实施效果,实现耕地资源保护和粮食安全等具有重要意义。本文在分析全国耕地空间变化的基础上,从年平均气温、年降水量和日照时数三个方面,研究耕地增加区和减少区的气候背景,并将其进行比较和分析,以期为国家保护耕地资源和发展农业生产等提供建议。研究结果表明,20世纪80年代末至2008年4个时段,耕地减少区比耕地增加区的年平均气温高0.45~1.05℃,年降水量高56.77~79.59mm,年日照时数少45.80~98.83h。耕地显著减少区比耕地显著增加区的年平均气温高0.81~1.85℃,年降水量高85.69~305.26mm,年日照时数少86.96~207.85h。在四个时段中,我国耕地重心逐渐北移且海拔升高。若海拔高度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区北移0.5-1个纬度,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区北移1-2个纬度;若纬度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区,海拔升高100~200m,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区,海拔升高150~350m。随年份增加,耕地增加区和显著增加区与耕地减少区和显著减少区在水分条件上的差别越来越大。这些结论对于研究我国粮食生产能力、评价耕地占补平衡、调整产业布局等具有重要意义。  相似文献   

8.
近55年来澜沧江流域降水时空变化特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
本文利用澜沧江流域及周边共30个气象站点1960-2014年的逐月降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析、Co-Kriging插值以及重心模型等方法,分析了澜沧江流域降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：① 分析时段内全区、北部和中部年降水量呈现增加趋势,南部年降水量出现减少趋势。春季全区、北部、中部和南部降水均呈增加趋势;夏季均呈减少趋势;秋季全区和南部降水呈现减少趋势,北部和中部呈增加趋势;冬季全区、中部和南部呈下降趋势,只有北部呈增加趋势。② 近55年来,全区包括北部、中部和南部年降水都存在近29年、近22年和5-10年左右的周期,这3个周期在分析时段内表现很稳定,具有全域性。全区、北部和南部还存在明显的13年左右的周期,中部1975年前和1995年后也存在13年左右的周期,北部1975年前存在明显的7-10年的周期,1995年后,7-10年的周期表现也比较稳定。降水量变化的第一主周期是近29年,第二主周期是近22年。③ 澜沧江流域多年平均降水量由南部向北部减少,流域南部降水最多,多年平均降水量在1200 mm以上,中部多年平均降水量处于800~1100 mm,北部多年平均降水量多小于800 mm,大部分在400~800 mm;澜沧江流域年降水重心和月降水重心都集中在中部,其中11月的降水重心迁移距离最大,向东南方向迁移了131.82 km。从季节来看,春季、夏季和秋季降水重心向东南迁移,冬季的向西北方向迁移,雨季降水重心相对比较集中,旱季降水重心相对 比较分散。  相似文献   

9.
利用2000-2014年MOD10A2积雪产品和数字高程模型DEM数据,以积雪覆盖率为指标,在分析西藏高原积雪空间分布特点的基础上,定量研究了高程、坡度和坡向等地形要素对高原积雪时空分布的影响。主要结论有：① 西藏高原积雪的空间分布差异显著,具有中东部念青唐古拉山和周边高山积雪丰富,覆盖率高,而南部河谷和羌塘高原中西部积雪少,覆盖率低的特点。② 海拔越高积雪覆盖率越高,积雪持续时间越长,年内变化越稳定。海拔2 km以下积雪覆盖率不足4%,海拔6 km以上覆盖率达75%。海拔4 km以下年内积雪覆盖呈单峰型分布特点,海拔越高,单峰型越明显;而海拔4 km以上则为双峰型,海拔越高,双峰型越明显。海拔6 km以下积雪覆盖率最低值出现在夏季,而6 km以上则出现在冬季。③ 总体上,高原地形坡度越高积雪覆盖率越高。不同坡向中,北坡积雪覆盖率最高,南坡最低,年内分布呈双峰型,而无坡向的平地积雪覆盖率要小于有坡向的山地,其年内变化呈单峰型分布特点。  相似文献   

10.
利用中国大陆构造环境监测网络的GPS观测资料，结合ERA-Interim模型气压和温度，解算2016年新疆地区GPS测站的大气可降水量，分析该地区大气可降水量的空间分布和季节性变化。结果表明：1）GPS和探空观测获取的大气可降水量具有较好的一致性，均方根误差约为2.7 mm；2）新疆地区全年平均大气可降水量在7.0~13.0 mm之间，且海拔每升高1 km，其含量减少约1.4 mm，当测站海拔相近时，大气可降水量随纬度的升高而减少；3）大气可降水量季节性变化明显，夏季为12.0~23.2 mm，冬季为1.4~5.5 mm，春、秋季大气可降水量差异不大且变化范围介于夏、冬季之间。
  相似文献   

11.
The detection of glacial lake change in the Himalayas, Nepal is extremely significant since the glacial lake change is one of the crucial indicators of global climate change in this area, where is the most sensitive area of the global climate changes. In the Himalayas, some of glacial lakes are covered by the dark mountains′ shadow because of their location. Therefore, these lakes can not be detected by conventional method such as Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), because the reflectance feature of shadowed glacial lake is different comparing to the ones which are located in the open flat area. The shadow causes two major problems: 1) glacial lakes which are covered by shadow completely result in underestimation of the number of glacial lakes; 2) glacial lakes which are partly identified are considered to undervalue the area of glacial lakes. The aim of this study is to develop a new model, named Detection of Shadowed Glacial Lakes (DSGL) model, to identify glacial lakes under the shadow environment by using Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data in the Himalayas, Nepal. The DSGL model is based on integration of two different modifications of NDWI, namely NDWIs model and NDWI she model. NDWIs is defined as integration of the NDWI and slope analysis and used for detecting non-shadowed lake in the mountain area. The NDWIshe is proposed as a new methodology to overcome the weakness of NDWIs on identifying shadowed lakes in highly elevated mountainous area such as the Himalayas. The first step of the NDWIshe is to enhance the data from ASTER 1B using the histogram equalization (HE) method, and its outcome product is named ASTER he . We used the ASTER he for calculating the NDWI he and the NDWIshe . Integrated with terrain analysis using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, the NDWI she can be used to identify the shadowed glacial lakes in the Himalayas. NDWIs value of 0.41 is used to identify the glacier lake (NDWIs≥0.41), and 0.3 of NDWIshe is used to identify the shadowed glacier lake (NDWIshe≤0.3). The DSGL model was proved to be able to classify the glacial lakes more accurately, while the NDWI model had tendency to underestimate the presence of actual glacial lakes. Correct classification rate regarding the products from NDWI model and DSGL model were 57% and 99%, respectively. The results of this paper demonstrated that the DSGL model is promising to detect glacial lakes in the shadowed environment at high mountains.  相似文献   

12.
Glaciers were solid reservoirs and important water resources in western China, but they were retreating significantly in context of global warming. Laohugou Glacier No. 12 was the largest valley glacier in Qilian Mountains. In this study, realtime kinematic (RTK) data, topographic map and WorldView-2 satellite imagery were used to measure changes in terminus, extent and volume of Laohugou Glacier No. 12. Results showed that Laohugou Glacier No. 12 was shrinking significantly since 1957. From 1960 to 2015, the terminus reduction of Laohugou Glacier No. 12 was 402.96 m (3.99%) in total, and glacier length decreased to 9.7 km from 10.1 km. Reduction of glacier area and volume were the most obvious. From 1957 to 2015, glacier area and volume decreased by 1.54 km2 (7.03%) and 0.1816 km3, respectively. Reduction trend of terminus and area was slowing in 1950 -1980s, even stable for a period in the mid-1980s, and then accelerated. Ice core analysis result and nearly meteorological station data shown an increasing trend of temperature in 1957 -2015, it was a main reason of continuous retreating of Laohugou Glacier No.12.  相似文献   

13.
Landsat images, real-time kinematic GPS measurements, and topographic maps were used to determine changes in ice elevation, volume, and areal extent of the Laohugou No. 12 glacier (Qilian Mountains, China) between 1957 and 2007. The glacier experienced significant thinning and areal shrinkage in the ablation zone, but slight thickening in part of the accumulation zone. Elevation decreased by 18.6±5.4 m between 1957 and 2007 in the regions covered by the GPS measurements. The total volume loss for the entire glacier was estimated to be 0.218 km3 using a third-order polynomial fit method. The area diminished by 0.28 km2 between 1957 and 1994, 0.26 km2 between 1994 and 2000, and 0.28 km2 between 2000 and 2007, suggesting that the rate of loss in glacial coverage has increased since the mid-1990s. Significant increases in annual mean air temperature may have contributed to shrinkage and thinning of the glacier.  相似文献   

14.
Global climate change during the twentieth century had a significant impact on the glaciers that resulted in creation of new lakes and expansion of existing ones, and ultimately an increase in the number of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) in the Himalayan region. This study reports variation of the end-moraine dammed lakes in the high altitude Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya(HKH) region of Pakistan to evaluate future floods hazard under changing climate in this region. An integrated temporal remote sensing and Geographic information system(GIS) based approach using satellite images of Landsat-7 and 8 was adopted to detect 482 endmoraine dammed lakes out of which 339 lakes(0.02 km2) were selected for temporal change analysis during the 2001-2013 period. The findings of the study revealed a net expansion in the end-moraine dammed lakes area in the Karakoram(about 7.7%) and in the Himalayas(4.6%), while there was a net shrinkage of about 1.5% in the lakes area in the Hindukush range during this period. The percentage increase in the lakes' area was highest above 4500 m asl in the Hindukush, within 3500-4000 m asl in the Himalayas and below 3500 m asl in the Karakoram range. The overall positive change in the lakes' area appears to prevail in various altitudinal ranges of the region. The heterogeneous areal changes in the endmoraine dammed lakes might be attributed to different climate regimes and glacial hydrodynamics in the three HKH ranges. A periodic monitoring of the glacial lakes and their associated glaciers is essential for developing effective hazard assessment and risk reduction strategies for this high altitude Himalayan region.  相似文献   

15.
In the Khumbu-and Khumbakarna Himalaya an ice stream network and valley glacier system has been reconstructed for the last glacial period (Würmian, Last Ice Age, Isotope stage 4–2, 60–18 Ka BP, Stage 0) with glaciogeomorphological and sedimentological methods. It was a part of the glacier system of the Himalaya and has communicated across transfluence passes with the neighbouring ice stream networks toward the W and E. The ice stream network has also received inflow from the N, from a Tibetan ice stream network, by the Kyetrak-Nangpa-Bote Koshi Drangka (Valley) in the W, by the W-Rongbuk glacier valley into the Ngozumpa Drangka (Valley), by the Central Rongbuk glacier valley into the Khumbu Drangka (Valley) and by the antecedent Arun Nadi transverse-valley in the E of the investigation area. The ice thickness of the valley glacier sections, the surface of which was situated above the snow-line, amounted to 1000–1450 m. The most extended parent valley glaciers have been measured approx. 70 km in length (Dudh Koshi glacier), 67 km (Barun-Arun glacier) and 80 km (Arun glacier). The tongue end of the Arun glacier has flowed down to c. 500 m and that of the Dudh Koshi glacier to c. 900 m asl. At heights of the catchment areas of 8481 (or 8475) m (Makalu), i.e., 8848 (or 8872) m (Mt. Everest, Sagarmatha, Chogolungma) this is a vertical distance of the Ice Age glaciation of c. 8000 m. The steep faces towering up to 2000 m above the névé areas of the 6000–7000 m-high surfaces of the ice stream network were located 2000–5000 m above the ELA. Accordingly, their temperatures were so low, that their rock surfaces were free of flank ice and ice balconies. From the maximum past glacier extension up to the current glacier margins, 13 (altogether 14) glacier stages have been differentiated and in part 14C-dated. They were four glacier stages of the late glacial period, three of the neoglacial period and six of the historical period. By means of 130 medium-sized valley glaciers the corresponding ELA-depressions have been calculated in comparison with the current courses of the orographic snow-line. The number of the glacier stages since the maximum glaciation approx. agrees with that e.g. in the Alps and the Rocky Mountains since the last glacial period. Accordingly, it is interpreted as an indication of the Würmian age (last glacial period) of the lowest ice margin positions. The current climatic, average glacier snow-line in the research area runs about 5500 m asl. The snow-line depression (ELA) of the last glacial period (Würm) calculated by four methods has run about 3870 m asl, so that an ELA-depression of c. 1630 m has been determined. This corresponds to a lowering of the annual temperature by c. 8, i.e., 10°C according to the specific humid conditions at that time.  相似文献   

16.
Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.  相似文献   

17.
Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km~2 and average size of 0.06 km~2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km~2 in 1977 to 127.61 km~2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km~2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km~2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km~2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km~2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km~2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km~2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.  相似文献   

18.
The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.  相似文献   

19.
There are a large number of glaciers and lakes developed in the Nyang Qu Basin of China. Recent climate change has significant impacted on the high-mountain glacial environment. Rapid melting of glaciers contributes to the formation and expansion of moraine-dammed lakes which increase the probability of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs). We calculated a multi-temporal lake inventory based on(1) topographic maps in the 1970 s,(2) satellite imageries from 1990 to 2016,(3) First Chinese Glacier Inventory(FCGI),(4) Glacier Inventory of Southeastern Tibet(GIST) and(5) meteorological data. A total of 880 lakes(>0.01 km^2) have been mapped in 2016, with 318 being glacial lakes(GLs) and 462 non-glacier lakes(NGLs). Most of the lakes were mainly located at 4500 m a.s.l. and the lakes dominated by small lakes(<0.1 km^2) where the change of their actual sizes are more significant compared to the larger ones. Meanwhile, we found that there were 178 newly formed GLs and 51 of them had disappeared between 1970 and 2016. During the same period, there can be identified 157 newly formed GLs and 226 had disappeared. We additionally performed a hazard and risk assessment for GL in 2016 and exposed 14 potentially dangerous morainedammed lakes(PDMDLs), covering a total area of 5.88 km2 in the Nyang Qu Basin. There can be found 4 GLs with very high risk, 3 GLs with high risk, 4 GLs with medium risk and 4 GLs with low risk of GLOFs susceptibility. The findings of this study can be used for the future policy of risk management and also be adapted for promoting water resources management.  相似文献   

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