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1.
Selected field measurements of evening stable boundary layers are presented in detail comparable with published Large Eddy Simulation results. Such models appear to match idealized theories more closely than do some boundary-layer observations. Any attempt to compare detailed observations with idealized models therefore highlights the variability of the real boundary layer.Here direct turbulence measurements across the stable boundary layer from a heterogeneous and an ideal site are contrasted. Recommendations are made for the information needed to distinguish heterogeneous and ideal cases.The companion paper (Part II) discusses further the issues of data, analysis in the presence of variability, and the effects of averaging over heterogeneous terrain.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Process Research Division.  相似文献   

2.
The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.  相似文献   

3.
An investigation is made of the detailed kinematic conditions which characterize breaking of internal waves in a continuous density field. It has been observed that breaking is associated with localized, abruptly appearing intensifications of the density gradient. Turbulence subsequently develops from these intensifications or traumata.Interactions between two or more disparate waves produce distortions more extreme than would be deduced from linear combination. This is exploited experimentally by crossing two weak internal wave beams from separate sources.Lagrangian integration of the motion field defined by the beams gives extrema of isopycnic slope, Richardson number defined by shear across isopycnics and dynamic vertical density gradient, and dynamic density gradient, under conditions for the appearance of traumata.  相似文献   

4.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations.  相似文献   

5.
The evaluation of the impact of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems requires establishing a reference situation. As deltaic coastal zones are highly dynamic areas, it is necessary to define the reference situation as a function of their present evolutive stage. This implies characterizing coastal processes as a complex system defined by the links between driving or forcing terms and the coastal response at different temporal and spatial scales (long/large, medium and episodic scales). Starting from classical previous works on deltaic systems and including all available field and conceptual knowledge to properly consider present conditions (largely regulated rivers, subsidence, etc.) a detailed methodology to analyse forcing or driving agents at the three mentioned scales is presented. This methodology which developed the general approach presented in a companion paper, will be followed by a future paper focusing on the analysis of the coastal response.  相似文献   

6.
A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.  相似文献   

7.
We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper we explore the dominant position of a particular style of scientific modelling in the provision of policy-relevant scientific knowledge on future climate change. We describe how the apical position of General Circulation Models (GCMs) appears to follow logically both from conventional understandings of scientific representation and the use of knowledge, so acquired, in decision-making. We argue, however, that both of these particular understandings are contestable. In addition to questioning their current policy-usefulness, we draw upon existing analyses of GCMs which discuss model trade-offs, errors, and the effects of parameterisations, to raise questions about the validity of the conception of complexity in conventional accounts. An alternative approach to modelling, incorporating concepts of uncertainty, is discussed, and an illustrative example given for the case of the global carbon cycle. In then addressing the question of how GCMs have come to occupy their dominant position, we argue that the development of global climate change science and global environmental management frameworks occurs concurrently and in a mutually supportive fashion, so uniting GCMs and environmental policy developments in certain industrialised nations and international organisations. The more basic questions about what kinds of commitments to theories of knowledge underpin different models of complexity as a normative principle of good science are concealed in this mutual reinforcement. Additionally, a rather technocratic policy orientation to climate change may be supported by such science, even though it involves political choices which deserve to be more widely debated.  相似文献   

9.
Analysis of recent rainfall normals reveals an unusual spatial pattern where the rainfall increases with the distance from the sea over the central coastal plain of Israel. Applying a multiple regression technique separately to rainfall amounts for the two randomized experiments of cloud seeding of seeded days and not seeded days, leads to the conclusion that the inadvertent influence of recent urbanization processes along the coastal plain are the cause of this phenomenon, rather than the advertent artificial cloud seeding. The seeding effect at the target area, on the other hand, seems to increase the inhomogeneity of the spatial structure of the rainfall distribution.  相似文献   

10.
Cloud water and interstitial aerosol samples collected at Mt. Sonnblick (SBO) were analyzed for sulfate and aerosol carbon to calculate in-cloud scavenging efficiencies. Scavenging efficiencies for sulfate (SO) ranged from 0.52 to 0.99 with an average of 0.80. Aerosol carbon was scavenged less efficiently with an average value (AC) of 0.45 and minimum and maximum values of 0.14 and 0.81, respectively. Both SO and AC showed a marked, but slightly different, dependence on the liquid water content (LWC) of the cloud. At low LWC, SO increased with rising LWC until it reached a relatively constant value of 0.83 above an LWC of 0.3 g/m3. In the case of aerosol carbon, we obtained a more gradual increase of AC up to an LWC of 0.5 g/m3. At higher LWCs, _ remained relatively constant at 0.60. As the differences between SO and A varied across the LWC range observed at SBO, we assume that part of the aerosol carbon was incorporated into the cloud droplets independently from sulfate. This hypothesis is supported by size classified aerosol measurements. The differences in the size distributions of sulfate and total carbon point to a partially external mixture. Thus, the different chemical nature and the differences in the size and mixing state of the aerosol particles are the most likely candidates for the differences in the scavenging behavior.  相似文献   

11.
As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division  相似文献   

12.
The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling resets temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this reset can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation- the current temperature.  相似文献   

13.
Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  
While large-scale climate models (GCMs) are in principle the most appropriate tools for predicting climate changes, at present little confidence can be placed in the details of their projections. Use of tools such as crop simulation models for investigation of potential impacts of climatic change requires daily data pertaining to small spatial scales, not the monthly-averaged and large-scale information typically available from the GCMs. A method is presented to adapt stochastic weather generation models, describing daily weather variations in the present-day climate at particular locations, to generate synthetic daily time series consistent with assumed future climates. These assumed climates are specified in terms of the commonly available monthly means and variances of temperature and precipitation, including time-dependent (so-called transient) climate changes. Unlike the usual practice of applying assumed changes in mean values to historically observed data, simulation of meteorological time series also exhibiting changes in variability is possible. Considerable freedom in climate change scenario construction is allowed. The results are suitable for investigating agricultural and other impacts of a variety of hypothetical climate changes specified in terms of monthly-averaged statistics.  相似文献   

14.
Summary The electromagnetic radiation of cloud discharge known as atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) shows a gradual fall from a frequency of 9 kHz to 81 kHz as studied over a period of two years at Calcutta, very close to Bay of Bengal. The main characteristic features of ARNFS at Calcutta are that-(i) ARNFS shows that midday median value is smaller than midnight median value in all months, (ii) level of daily minimum is higher in February and monsoon compared to other seasons, (iii) sunrise effect and sunset effect are well correlated with local sunrise and sunset times, (iv) the magnitude of sunrise fade and sunrise fade rate are maximum in April and lowest during winter period, (v) the magnitude of sunset fade is higher in premonsoon and postmonsoon while it is lowest in monsoon, (vi) number of occurrence of both sunrise effect and sunset effect is remark-ably smaller in monsoon. The positions of the sun and of atmospheric sources are jointly the causes of seasonal and diurnal variations. The missing of sunrise effect and sunset effect are due to local cloud activity and variation of electron density during geomagnetic storms.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

15.
The yields of products have been calculated for the reactions of hydroxyl radicals and ozone with 19 of the two-through-six carbon anthropogenic alkenes. Based on their rate of reaction, mechanisms of reactions and the ambient air distribution for these alkenes their seasonal ambient air yields have been estimated.Aldehydes predominate as products irrespective of season, with smaller yields of several ketones. Other minor products include carboxylic acids, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and alkenes. About a two-fold increase is estimated in the yields of hot biradicals and their products from summer to winter.One sensitivity analysis was made by recomputing yields at a different OH radical to O3 concentration than assumed most likely in the calculations discussed above. In addition, the sensitivity of product yields to an estimated range of seasonally averaged sunset-to-sunrise NO3 radical concentrations was calculated. The effects of free radical reactions are discussed, but these are believed to make a relatively minor contribution within the NO x -rich atmospheres that contain anthropogenic alkenes.The uncertainties in product yields associated with the range of NO3 radical concentrations assumed present is relatively small for aldehydes, as is the decrease in yield of the one carbon hot biradical. Larger uncertainties occur for ketones. Significant decreases in yields occur for larger hot biradicals, especially the branched-chain hot radicals in the presence of NO3 radicals.  相似文献   

16.
Jackson and Hunt's (1975) equation for the depth of the inner layer of flows over low hills does not depend on any closure assumption as contrarily supposed in literature. This equation contains a constant which can arbitrarily be specified. It is suggested that this inner-layer constant should be determined from experimental data. A preliminary check with some data from the Askervein experiment suggests that Jackson and Hunt's equation fits these data almost as well as Jensen's equation provided that fitted inner-layer constants are used.  相似文献   

17.
Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.  相似文献   

18.
The common representation of frequency spectra in meteorology and climatology is discussed. It is pointed out that this representation is misleading since spectral peaks and spectral gaps are obtained even when the spectrum density is monotonously decreasing in the whole frequency range. A plea is made for using the spectrum distribution function, F() which gives an unambiguous picture of the distribution of variance with frequency.  相似文献   

19.
The effects in climate models of changes in albedo and soil moisture which are expected to follow from tropical deforestation are reviewed. The major results from experiments with tropical forest regions (a) forested (Experiment F) and (b) grass-covered (Experiment G) are compared over South America and Central Africa. Then, Experiment F is compared with Experiment 2 which has constant snowfree albedo of 0.2, close to that of grassland; in both South America and Zaire regions, the albedo changes for (G-F) and (2-F) are similar and, as Experiment 2 is an eight year run, assessments of the statistical significance can be made.The results for December to February and March to May show a decrease of rainfall over the Amazon region and also to the southeast outside the area which has changed albedos in (G-F). These decreases are common to both (G-F) and (2-F) and are statistically significant in the comparison with the eight year record for Experiment 2. Deforestation in the Zaire regions is associated with similar changes, which, though less extensive, are generally larger in relation to the albedo changes. In June to August, changes are small south of the equator because the rainbelt has moved north; in South America larger, significant decreases are obtained north of the equator.The drying with increased albedo is due to decreases in both evaporation and moisture convergence. The decreases in evaporation result both from a reduction in absorbed energy at the surface and an increase in surface resistance to evaporation due to greater soil moisture deficits arising from earlier decreases in rainfall.  相似文献   

20.
Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO2 concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.  相似文献   

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