首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
This report summarizes the seismicity in Switzerland and surrounding regions in the years 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the Swiss Seismological Service detected and located 735 earthquakes in the region under consideration. With a total of 20 earthquakes of magnitude ML ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity of potentially felt events in 2015 was close to the average of 23 earthquakes over the previous 40 years. Seismic activity was above average in 2016 with 872 located earthquakes of which 31 events had ML ≥ 2.5. The strongest event in the analyzed period was the ML 4.1 Salgesch earthquake, which occurred northeast of Sierre (VS) in October 2016. The event was felt in large parts of Switzerland and had a maximum intensity of V. Derived focal mechanisms and relative hypocenter relocations of aftershocks image a SSE dipping reverse fault, which likely also hosted an ML 3.9 earthquake in 2003. Another remarkable earthquake sequence in the Valais occurred close to Sion with four felt events (ML 2.7–3.2) in 2015/16. We associate this sequence with a system of WNW-ESE striking fault segments north of the Rhône valley. Similarities with a sequence in 2011, which was located about 10 km to the NE, suggest the existence of an en-echelon system of basement faults accommodating dextral slip along the Rhône-Simplon line in this area. Another exceptional earthquake sequence occurred close to Singen (Germany) in November 2016. Relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms image a SW dipping transtensional fault segment, which is likely associated with a branch of the Hegau-Bodensee Graben. On the western boundary of this graben, micro-earthquakes close to Schlattingen (TG) in 2015/16 are possibly related to a NE dipping branch of the Neuhausen Fault. Other cases of earthquakes felt by the public during 2015/16 include earthquakes in the region of Biel, Vallorcine, Solothurn, and Savognin.  相似文献   

2.
Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M?≥?7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M?≤?7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M?≤?6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.  相似文献   

3.
Geological and geophysical research in upstate New York, with few exceptions, has not definitively associated seismicity with specific Proterozoic basement or Paleozoic bedrock structures. The central part of the Clarendon–Linden fault system (CLFS) between Batavia and Dale, NY is one of those exceptions where seismicity has been studied and has been spatially associated with structure. The CLFS is either a complex system of long faults with associated shorter branches and parallel segments, or a region of many short faults aligned north–south from the Lake Ontario shore southward to Allegany County, NY. Interpretation of 38 km of Vibroseis and approximately 56 km of conventional seismic-reflection data along 13 lines suggests that the CLFS is a broad zone of small faults with small displacements in the lower Paleozoic bedrock section that is at least 77 km long and 7–17 km wide and spatially coincident with a north-trending geophysical (combined aeromagnetic and gravity) lineament within the basement. The relative offset across the faults of the system is more than 91 m near Attica, NY. The CLFS is the expression of tectonic crustal adjustments within the Paleozoic rock above the boundary of two basement megablocks of differing petrologic provinces and differing earthquake characteristics that forms the eastern side of the Elzevir–Frontenac boundary zone. Deep seismic-reflection profiles display concave-eastward listric faults that probably merge at depth near the mid-crustal boundary layer. An interpretive vertical section provides the setting for refined definitions of the CLFS, its extensions at depth and its relation to seismicity. Most modern seismicity in western New York and the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario occurs in apparent patterns of randomly dispersed activity. The sole exception is a line of seven epicenters of small earthquakes that trend east from Attica, NY into the Rochester basement megablock. Earthquakes may be triggered at the intersections of north- and east-trending brittle faults within the Niagara basement megablock. Current interpretations of the mechanisms for earthquake generation in western New York and the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario require conservative estimates of seismic hazards that assume that an earthquake the size of the 1929 Attica, NY, event (Mb=5.2) or larger could occur anywhere in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin (EGLB). The broad zone of small-displacement faults that marks the CLFS in the lower Paleozoic sedimentary section and the uppermost basement may not provide the structural environment for generation of earthquakes in western New York. If this interpretation is correct, most seismicity is generated within the Niagara basement megablock beneath or west of the CLFS. Consequently, we may have to look to the deeper tectonic regime of basement megablocks to understand the distribution of modern seismicity in the EGLB.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents an analysis of the development of the current seismic state of the Kuznetsk coal basin, which is characterized by an increase in technogenic seismicity of different types under the influence of prolonged intensive mining operations. The development of technogenesis led to a significant increase in technogenic seismicity in the Kuznetsk Basin in the 1970-1980s, when the number of technogenic earthquakes began to exceed the number of natural earthquakes. Among the various types of induced seismicity, special attention is paid to strong technogenic tectonic earthquakes with a regional magnitude Mb ≥ 3 and, accordingly, a seismic energy release of more than 109 J, i.e., earthquakes of energy class K > 9. These small-focus earthquakes are often accompanied by destruction of underground mines, collapse of quarries and pits, damage to surface facilities and equipment, and other adverse effects. In this paper, such earthquakes are defined as technogenic tectonic to emphasize their dual origin: technogenic impacts and the subsequent relaxation of tectonic stresses. It is also noted that the Earth’s interior in Kuzbass initially had its own natural seismicity and a developed system of tectonic faults. Natural seismotectonic activity combined with constantly increasing scales of mining and explosive consumption has led to an increase in the number of technogenic seismic events and their intensity. A striking example of such an event was the 18 June, 2013 Bachat earthquake with a regional magnitude Mb= 5.8 and a seismic intensity of 7 in the epicentral zone. It was the world’s largest man-made earthquake induced by the mining of solid minerals. We consider the possible causes of this catastrophic earthquake and discuss the conditions favoring the formation of foci of such technogenic tectonic earthquakes resulting from changes in the geodynamic and hydrogeological conditions in the Earth’s crust under man-caused impacts. These induced changes in natural processes are accompanied by a change in the stress-strain state, resulting in the concentration of tectonic stresses at heterogeneities and in fault zones, which become sources of induced technogenic seismicity.The paper discusses the current period of the occurrence and increase in such anthropogenic seismicity in the Kuzbass region with increasing scales of coal mining and blasting. Over the last 20 years, the consumption of explosives at Kuzbass enterprises increased from 100-200 to 500-600 thousand tons per year, and, accordingly, the amounts of broken and transported rock increased from several million tons per year to a billion tons per year, which disturbed the dynamic equilibrium in the Earth’s crust and changed the existing field of tectonic stresses. Moreover, the continuously increasing consumption of explosives has also increased the technogenic impact on the crust structures. The location of the epicenters of large-scale blasts inducing seismic events with regional magnitudes Mb= 3.0-4.5 has made it possible to identify regions with the greatest technogenic impact in Kuzbass. Using the data of the ISC seismological catalog, we separated seismic events with the above magnitudes into day and night ones. Since blasting work is forbidden at night, night seismic events are referred to as technogenic tectonic earthquakes (night event criterion). The maximum magnitude of seismic events induced by blasting operations in the Kuznetsk Basin was estimated at Mb ≤ 4.4. The annual number of technogenic tectonic earthquakes with 3.0 ≤ Mb ≤ 3.4, 3.5 ≤ Mb ≤ 3.9, 4.0 ≤ Mb ≤ 4.4, and Mb ≥ 4.5 was determined based on the night event criterion. The regions of their occurrence were identified from the location of the epicenters of technogenic tectonic earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
Geophysical data are needed to correlate the lineaments at the surface to the structural mapping of underlying bedrock. High resolution seismic survey is one of the most suitable geophysical methods for mapping of shallow features. In this study, 2D high resolution seismic reflection survey (HRSS) has been carried out across the Ghaggar, a seasonal river in Haryana, India. The survey is carried out for a profile distance of 10 km across the lineament along the course of Ghaggar River. Ground checks along the river have shown sediments containing alternate layers of alluvium deposits with yellowish silty clay and fine-grained gray sand of variable thickness. Several structural disturbances along the profile are identified. During the quantitative analyses, the results exhibit disturbances in the reflector representing the bedrock. Also, regional gravity data study does not report any major tectonic feature indicating the absence of seismicity associated with the lineament. The present study resulted in that (a) the1.5-km wide zone of disturbance is more likely to be a fracture rather than a major fault across the basement in the depth and (b) the meandering drainage pattern of the Ghaggar River which indicates that it is a basement-controlled lineament.  相似文献   

6.
Linking earthquakes of moderate size to known tectonic sources is a challenge for seismic hazard studies in northwestern Europe because of overall low strain rates. Here we present a combined study of macroseismic information, tectonic observations, and seismic waveform modelling to document the largest instrumentally known event in the French northern Alps, the April 29, 1905, Chamonix earthquake. The moment magnitude of this event is estimated at Mw 5.3 ± 0.3 from records in Göttingen (Germany) and Uppsala (Sweden). The event of April 29 was followed by several afterschocks and in particular a second broadly felt earthquake on August 13, 1905. Macroseismic investigations allow us to favour a location of the epicentres 5–10 km N–NE of Chamonix. Tectonic analysis shows that potentially one amongst several faults might have been activated in 1905. Among them the right lateral strike-slip fault responsible for the recent 2005 Mw = 4.4 Vallorcine earthquake and a quasi-normal fault northeast of the Aiguilles Rouges massif are the most likely candidates. Discussion of tectonic, macroseismic, and instrumental data favour the normal fault hypothesis for the 1905 Chamonix earthquake sequence.  相似文献   

7.
This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012. During this period, 497 earthquakes and 88 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 13 events with ML ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2012 was far below the average over the previous 37 years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Filisur (GR) in January with two events of ML 3.3 and 3.5, the ML 4.2 and ML 3.5 earthquakes at a depth of 32 km below Zug in February and the ML 3.6 event near Vallorcine in October. The epicentral intensity of the ML 4.2 event close to Zug was IV, with a maximum intensity of V reached in a few areas, probably due to site amplification effects.  相似文献   

8.
Seismicity of Gujarat   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Paper describes tectonics, earthquake monitoring, past and present seismicity, catalogue of earthquakes and estimated return periods of large earthquakes in Gujarat state, western India. The Gujarat region has three failed Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh, Cambay, and Narmada, with several active faults. Kachchh district of Gujarat is the only region outside Himalaya-Andaman belt that has high seismic hazard of magnitude 8 corresponding to zone V in the seismic zoning map of India. The other parts of Gujarat have seismic hazard of magnitude 6 or less. Kachchh region is considered seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World. It is known to have low seismicity but high hazard in view of occurrence of fewer smaller earthquakes of M????6 in a region having three devastating earthquakes that occurred during 1819 (M w7.8), 1956 (M w6.0) and 2001 (M w7.7). The second in order of seismic status is Narmada rift zone that experienced a severely damaging 1970 Bharuch earthquake of M5.4 at its western end and M????6 earthquakes further east in 1927 (Son earthquake), 1938 (Satpura earthquake) and 1997 (Jabalpur earthquake). The Saurashtra Peninsula south of Kachchh has experienced seismicity of magnitude less than 6.  相似文献   

9.
The integrated analysis of geological, seismological and field observations with lineament data derived from satellite images allows the identification of a possible seismogenic fault zone for an earthquake which occurred near Etne in southwestern Norway, on 29 February 1989. The hypocentre of the earthquake was located at the mid-crust at a depth of 13.8±0.9 km which is typical of small intraplate earthquakes. The Etne earthquake occurred as a result of normal faulting with a dextral strike-slip component on a NW–SE trending fault. Available geological and lineament data indicate correlation of the inferred seismogenic fault with the NW–SE trending Etne fault zone. An aeromagnetic anomaly related to the Etne fault zone forms a regional feature intersecting both Precambrian basement and allochthonous Caledonian rocks. Based on these associations the occurrence of the Etne event is ascribed to the reactivation of a zone of weakness along the Etne fault zone. Slope-instabilities developed in the superficial deposits during the Etne event demonstrate the existence of potentially hazardous secondary-effects of such earthquakes even in low seismicity areas such as southwestern Norway.  相似文献   

10.
Earthquakes in Kenya are common along the Kenya Rift Valley because of the slow divergent movement of the rift and hydrothermal processes in the geothermal fields. This implies slow but continuous radiation of seismic energy, which relieves stress in the subsurface rocks. On the contrary, the NW-SE trending rift/fault zones such as the Aswa-Nyangia fault zone and the Muglad-Anza-Lamu rift zone are the likely sites of major earthquakes in Kenya and the East African region. These rift/fault zones have been the sites of a number of strong earthquakes in the past such as the M w = 7.2 southern Sudan earthquake of 20 May 1990 and aftershocks of M w = 6.5 and 7.1 on 24 May 1990, the 1937 M s = 6.1 earthquake north of Lake Turkana close to the Kenya-Ethiopian border, and the 1913 M s = 6.0 Turkana earthquake, among others. Source parameters of the 20 May 1990 southern Sudan earthquake show that this earthquake consists of only one event on a fault having strike, dip, and rake of 315°, 84°, and ?3°. The fault plane is characterized by a left-lateral strike slip fault mechanism. The focal depth for this earthquake is 12.1 km, seismic moment M o = 7.65 × 1019 Nm, and moment magnitude, M w = 7.19 (?7.2). The fault rupture started 15 s earlier and lasted for 17 s along a fault plane having dimensions of ?60 km × 40 km. The average fault dislocation is 1.1 m, and the stress drop, ?σ, is 1.63 MPa. The distribution of historical earthquakes (M w ≥ 5) from southern Sudan through central Kenya generally shows a NW-SE alignment of epicenters. On a local scale in Kenya, the NW–SE alignment of epicenters is characterized by earthquakes of local magnitude M l ≤ 4.0, except the 1928 Subukia earthquake (M s = 6.9) in central Kenya. This NW–SE alignment of epicenters is consistent with the trend of the Aswa-Nyangia Fault Zone, from southern Sudan through central Kenya and further southwards into the Indian Ocean. We therefore conclude that the NW–SE trending rift/fault zones are sites of strong earthquakes likely to pose the greatest earthquake hazard in Kenya and the East African region in general.  相似文献   

11.
This investigation covers the area bounded by latitudes 20° to 33° N and longitudes 9.5° to 25°E.The seismicity of area for the period 1900–2005 is evaluated. Libyan earthquake catalog is complete for the 4.4 M and greater over a 70-year span. The overall seismicity of Libya is found to be low to intermediate. The seismic activity is concentrated in three zones of the northern Libya. Outside of these zones, epicenters are scattered and sparsely distributed. The b value for Libya is –0.71. This low b value is a characteristic feature for intraplate environment. A seismotectonics map is constructed for Libya. It shows that the epicenters agree well with the distribution of the major tectonic features. Majority of seismic activity in Libya is concentrated near Hun Graben and Cyrenaica, and the locations of earthquakes are near the transition zones between the stress domains in northern Libya. These transition zones are locations of stress concentration. This investigation suggests that the stress concentration theory is generally considered as causative mechanism for seismicity of Libya.  相似文献   

12.
The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time.  相似文献   

13.
The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.  相似文献   

14.
In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

15.
North-eastern Himalaya is said to be one of the world most complex geological set-up with different kinds of seismotectonic systems. Region has experienced two of the world’s strongest earthquakes, such as Shillong earthquake of 1897 known as Assam earthquake and subsequent 1950 earthquake in Arunachal Pradesh, both of with magnitude of 8.7, and also several other strong earthquakes. Various techniques have been applied to understand the past strong earthquake mechanism as well as hazard estimation carried out for future earthquake. Fractal correlation dimension (D c) is being used in this study with the seismicity for the period 1961 to recent for understanding the pattern of seismic hazard. The entire area has been divided into four major tectonic blocks, and each block event was divided into consecutive fifty events window for seeing spatiotemporal patterns. After comparing the patterns, we have identified that Block of Eastern Himalaya near Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust, north of Kopili lineament and Block of Shillong plateau near Dauki fault are having relatively intense clustering of events in recent times, which may be identified as the zones of most potential to have a strong event.  相似文献   

16.
Following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a large amount of seismicity occurred in the Nantou region of central Taiwan. Among the seismic activities, eight Mw ⩾ 5.8 earthquakes took place following the Chi-Chi earthquake, whereas only four earthquakes with comparable magnitudes took place from 1900 to 1998. Since the seismicity rate during the Chi-Chi postseismic period has never returned to the background level, such seismicity activation cannot simply be attributed to modified Omori’s Law decay. In this work, we attempted to associate seismic activities with stress evolution. Based on our work, it appears that the spatial distribution of the consequent seismicity can be associated with increasing coseismic stress. On the contrary, the stress changes imparted by the afterslip; lower crust–upper mantle viscoelastic relaxation; and sequent events resulted in a stress drop in most of the study region. Understanding seismogenic mechanisms in terms of stress evolution would be beneficial to seismic hazard mitigation.  相似文献   

17.
The Himalayan fold-thrust belt has been visited by many disastrous earthquakes (magnitude > 6) time and again. This active collisional orogen bordering Indian subcontinent in the north remains a potential seismic threat of similar magnitude in the adjoining countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and China. Though earthquake forecasting is riddled with all conjectures and still not a proven presumption, identifying likely source zones of such disastrous earthquakes would be an important contribution to seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we have worked out spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes (Mb ?? 4.5; 1964?C2006) in the Himalayas. ??Point density?? spatial statistics has helped in detecting 22 spatial seismicity clusters. Earthquake catalog is then treated with a moving time-distance window technique (inter-event time 35 days and distance 100 ± 20 km) to bring out temporal clusters by recognizing several foreshock-main shock-aftershock (FMA) sequences. A total of 53 such temporal sequences identified in the process are confined within the 22 spatial clusters. Though each of these spatio-temporal clusters deserves in-depth analysis, we short-listed only eight such clusters that are dissected by active tectonic discontinuities like MBT/MCT for detail study. Spatio-temporal clusters have been used to constrain the potential source zones. These eight well-defined spatio-temporal clusters demonstrate recurrent moderate to large earthquakes. We assumed that the length of these clusters are indicating the possible maximum rupture lengths and thus empirically estimated the maximum possible magnitudes of eight clusters that can be generated from them (from west to east) as 8.0, 8.3, 8.2, 8.3, 8.2, 8.4, 8.0 and 7.7. Based on comparative study of the eight cluster zones contemplating with their temporal recurrences, historical seismic records, presence of intersecting faults and estimated magnitudes, we have guessed the possibility that Kangra, East Nepal, Garhwal and Kumaun?CWest Nepal clusters, in decreasing order of earthquake threat, are potential source zones for large earthquakes (??7.7 M) in future.  相似文献   

18.
Gutenberg and Richter developed an empirical relation, \(\log_{10} N(M) = a - bM\), to quantify the seismicity rate of various magnitudes in a given region and time period. They found the equation fit observed data well both globally and for particular regions. In conventional G–R relation, N(M) represents an arithmetic mean. As a result, the arithmetic standard deviation cannot be explicitly incorporated in the log-linear G–R relation. Moreover, this representation is susceptible to influence of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks of major earthquake sequences. To overcome these shortcomings, we propose an alternative representation of the G–R relation in terms of the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation. We select the crustal earthquake data from 1973 to 2011, as listed in the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) global catalog and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Taiwan regional catalog, to illustrate our methodology. We first show that by using the logarithmic annual seismicity rates we can significantly suppress the influences of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks following major earthquake sequences contained in the Taiwan regional catalog. More significantly, both the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation can be explicitly represented in the Gutenberg–Richter relation as follows:
$${\text{For}}\,{\text{global}}\,{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13);$$
$${\text{For}}\,{\text{Taiwan}}\;{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)$$
where log10 N represents the logarithmic annual seismicity rate. Above analytical equations are very well constrained by observed global seismicity data with \(5.0 \le M \le 7.0\) and by Taiwan seismicity data with \(3.0 \le M \le 5.0\). Both equations can be extrapolated with confidence to simultaneously estimate not only the median annual seismicity rates but also their uncertainties for large earthquakes for the first time since inception of the G–R relation. These equations can be used to improve the conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by including the dispersion of the annual seismicity rate. Finally, the corresponding numerical median annual seismicity rate with its upper and lower bounds obtained from above equations for \(5.0 \le M \le 9.0\) is listed in Table 1.
Table 1 Observed and estimated median annual seismicity rate and return period with their dispersions for Taiwan and global crustal earthquakes
Magnitude Catalog
Taiwan catalog (CWB) Taiwan catalog (CWB) Global catalog (NEIC) Global catalog (NEIC)
Annual rate (event/year) Return period (year) Annual rate (event/year) Return period (year)
M ≥ 5.0 24.55 13.18 7.08 0.041 0.076 0.14 1148.16 977.24 831.76 0.0009 0.001 0.0012
M ≥ 5.5 8.91 4.68 2.45 0.11 0.21 0.41 367.28 298.54 242.66 0.0027 0.0033 0.0041
M ≥ 6.0 3.24 1.66 0.85 0.31 0.60 1.18 117.49 91.20 70.79 0.0085 0.011 0.014
M ≥ 6.5 1.17 0.59 0.30 0.85 1.69 3.33 37.58 27.86 20.65 0.027 0.036 0.048
M ≥ 7.0 0.43 0.21 0.10 2.33 4.76 10.0 12.02 8.51 6.03 0.083 0.12 0.17
M ≥ 7.5 0.15 0.074 0.036 6.67 13.51 27.78 3.85 2.60 1.76 0.26 0.38 0.57
M ≥ 8.0 0.056 0.026 0.012 17.86 38.46 83.33 1.23 0.79 0.51 0.81 1.27 1.96
M ≥ 8.5 0.020 0.009 0.004 50.00 111.11 250.0 0.39 0.24 0.15 2.56 4.17 6.67
M ≥ 9.0 0.0074 0.0033 0.0015 135.14 303.03 666.67 0.13 0.074 0.04 7.69 13.51 25.00
Observed value is shown in bold number, estimated value in regular number \(\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)\) for Taiwan crustal earthquakes \(\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13)\) for global crustal earthquakes
  相似文献   

19.
The Sultanate of Oman forms the southeastern part of the Arabian plate, which is surrounded by relatively high active tectonic zones. Studies of seismic risk assessment in Oman have been an important on-going socioeconomic concern. Using the results of the seismic hazard assessment to improve building design and construction is an effective way to reduce the seismic risk. In the current study, seismic hazard assessment for the Sultanate of Oman is performed through the deterministic approach with particular attention on the uncertainty analysis applying a recently developed method. The input data set contains a defined seismotectonic model consisting of 26 seismic zones, maximum magnitudes, and 6 alternative ground motion prediction equations that were used in four different tectonic environments: obduction zone earthquake (Zagros fold thrust belt), subduction zone earthquakes (Makran subduction zones), normal and strike-slip transform earthquakes (Owen and Gulf of Aden zones), and stable craton seismicity (Arabian stable craton). This input data set yielded a total of 76 scenarios at each point of interest. A 10 % probability that any of the 76 scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration is selected. The deterministic seismic hazards in terms of PGA, 5 % damped spectral acceleration at 0.1, 0.2, 1.0 and 2.0 s are performed at 254 selected points. The ground motion was calculated at the 50th and 84th percentile levels for selected probability of exceeding the median value. The largest ground motion in the Sultanate of Oman is observed in the northeastern part of the country.  相似文献   

20.
M Persaud  O.A Pfiffner   《Tectonophysics》2004,385(1-4):59-84
Post-glacial tectonic faults in the eastern Swiss Alps occur as single lineaments, clusters of faults or extensive fault zones consisting of several individual faults aligned along the same trend. The orientation of the faults reflects the underlying lithology and the pre-existing structures (joints, pervasive foliations) within these lithologies. Most post-glacially formed faults in the area around Chur, which undergoes active surface uplift of 1.6 mm/year, trend E–W and cut across Alpine and glacial features such as active screes and moraines. Additionally, there are NNW and ENE striking faults reactivating pervasive Alpine foliations and shear zones. Based on a comparison with the nodal planes of recent earthquakes, E–W striking faults are interpreted as active faults. Because of very short rupture lengths and mismatches of fault location with earthquake distribution, magnitude and abundance, the faults are considered to be secondary faults due to earthquake shaking, cumulative deformation in post- or interseismic periods or creep, and not primary earthquake-related faults. The maximum of recent surface uplift rates coincides with the youngest cooling of the rocks according to apatite fission-track data and is therefore a long-lived feature that extends well into pre-glacial times. Isostatic rebound owing to overthickened crust or to melting of glacial overburden cannot explain the observed surface uplift pattern. Rather, the faults, earthquakes and surface uplift patterns suggest that the Alps are deforming under active compression and that the Aar massif basement uplift is still active in response to ongoing collision.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号