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1.
The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide-prone area (Daguan County, China) by evidential belief function (EBF) model and weights of evidence (WoE) model to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on earlier reports and aerial photographs, as well as, by carrying out field surveys. A total of 194 landslides were mapped. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset; 70% (136 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30% (58 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Then, a total number of 14 conditioning factors, such as slope angle, slope aspect, general curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI) were used in the analysis. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using the EBF and WoE models. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was accomplished with the area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for EBF and WoE models were of 80.19% and 80.75% accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the susceptibility map using EBF model has the prediction accuracy of 80.09%, while for WoE model, it was 79.79%. The results of this study showed that both landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful and would be useful for regional spatial planning as well as for land cover planning.  相似文献   

2.
The main goal of this paper is to generate a landslide susceptibility map through evidential belief function (EBF) model by using Geographic Information System (GIS) for Qianyang County, Shaanxi Province, China. At first, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared, and the following ten landslide-conditioning factors were collected: slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, distance to rivers, geomorphology, lithology, and rainfall. The landslides were detected from the interpretation of aerial photographs and supported by field surveys. A total of 81 landslides were randomly split into the following two parts: the training dataset 70 % (56 landslides) were used for establishing the model and the remaining 30 % (25 landslides) were used for the model validation. The ArcGIS was used to analyze landslide-conditioning factors and evaluate landslide susceptibility; as a result, a landslide susceptibility map was generated by using EBF and ArcGIS 10.0, thus divided into the following five susceptibility classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Finally, when we validated the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map, both the success-rate and prediction-rate curve methods were applied. The results reveal that a final susceptibility map has the success rate of 83.31 % and the prediction rate of 79.41 %.  相似文献   

3.
Yin  Chao  Wang  Zhanghua  Zhao  Xingkui 《Natural Hazards》2022,113(2):813-831

In order to clarify the spatial differentiations of highway slope disasters (HSDs) in Boshan District, spatial prediction was carried out based on ECG-CNN with the support of GIS. Spatial prediction factors of HSDs were selected, and the stabilities of the 147 highway slopes in Boshan District were determined. The spatial prediction model of HSDs was established by ECG-CNN, and the spatial susceptibility map of HSDs in Boshan District was plotted. Influences of the prediction factor combinations and the drill sample and verification sample combinations on the prediction success rates were verified. The results show that low susceptible areas, medium susceptible areas and high susceptible areas account for 56.92%, 28.46% and 14.62% of the total areas of Boshan District, respectively. Some sections of Binlai Expressway, G205, G309, S210 and S307, pass through high susceptible areas. The surface cutting depth has a small impact on the prediction success rate, while the elevation and gradient have great impacts on the prediction success rate. When the drill samples are small, network drill’s maturity has a great impact on the prediction success rate, while when there are many drill samples, the model’s logical structure itself has a large impact on the prediction success rate.

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4.
Land subsidence is one of the frequent geological hazards worldwide. Urban areas and agricultural industries are the entities most affected by the consequences of land subsidence. The main objective of this study was to estimate the land subsidence (sinkhole) hazards at the Kinta Valley of Perak, Malaysia, using geographic information system and remote sensing techniques. To start, land subsidence locations were observed by surveying measurements using GPS and using the tabular data, which were produced as coordinates of each sinkhole incident. Various land subsidence conditioning factors were used such as altitude, slope, aspect, lithology, distance from the fault, distance from the river, normalized difference vegetation index, soil type, stream power index, topographic wetness index, and land use/cover. In this article, a data-driven technique of an evidential belief function (EBF), which is in the category of multivariate statistical analysis, was used to map the land subsidence-prone areas. The frequency ratio (FR) was performed as an efficient bivariate statistical analysis method in order compare it with the acquired results from the EBF analysis. The probability maps were acquired and the results of the analysis validated by the area under the (ROC) curve using the testing land subsidence locations. The results indicated that the FR model could produce a 71.16 % prediction rate, while the EBF showed better prediction accuracy with a rate of 73.63 %. Furthermore, the success rate was measured and accuracies of 75.30 and 79.45 % achieved for FR and EBF, respectively. These results can produce an understanding of the nature of land subsidence as well as promulgate public awareness of such geo-hazards to decrease human and economic losses.  相似文献   

5.
The main purpose of this paper is to present the use of multi-resource remote sensing data, an incomplete landslide inventory, GIS technique and logistic regression model for landslide susceptibility mapping related to the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China. Landslide location polygons were delineated from visual interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite images in high resolutions, and verified by selecting field investigations. Eight factors, including slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, distance from drainages, distance from roads, distance from main faults, seismic intensity and lithology were selected as controlling factors for earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility mapping. Qualitative susceptibility analyses were carried out using the map overlaying techniques in GIS platform. The validation result showed a success rate of 82.751 % between the susceptibility probability index map and the location of the initial landslide inventory. The predictive rate of 86.930 % was obtained by comparing the additional landslide polygons and the landslide susceptibility probability index map. Both the success rate and the predictive rate show sufficient agreement between the landslide susceptibility map and the existing landslide data, and good predictive power for spatial prediction of the earthquake-triggered landslides.  相似文献   

6.
湖北省巴东县新城区滑坡灾害空间预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
论文在综合分析巴东县新城区区域地质背景及滑坡基本特征的基础上,分析了影响滑坡灾害发生的各因素与滑坡发生之间的相关性,提出影响灾害发生的主要因素：地形坡度、斜坡形态、岩性、构造、水的作用、人类工程活动。利用GIS的空间分析功能将各因素图件栅格化为86216个不规则单元。基于逻辑回归的方法对滑坡灾害进行了定量的概率预测。同时,对研究区进行滑坡灾害空间预测分区,将预测结果与该地区历史滑坡灾害发生情况进行对比发现预测精度为85．71％。说明所建立的模型具有较高的预测精度,是可以用于预测分析的。  相似文献   

7.
The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions.  相似文献   

8.
Landslide susceptibility mapping and spatial prediction have been carried out for the headwater region of Manimala river basin in the Western Ghats of Kerala, India, through geographic information technology and bayesian statistics, Weights of Evidence (WofE) model. The variables such as geomorphology, slope, relative relief, terrain curvature, slope length and steepness, soil type and land use/land cover are considered as factors that translate the terrain susceptible to landsliding. The quantitative relationship between landslides and the causative factors were statistically weighted using the ArcSDM extension of ArcGIS software. The posterior probability map, produced on the basis of predictive weights for each variable by combining the weighted layers in GIS, shows a high posterior probability value of 0.1 (highly possible) with a standard deviation of 0.0025. The discrete susceptibility classes in the reclassified posterior probability map reveals that the high and moderate landslide susceptibility classes cover 0.78 and 14.93% respectively of the total study area. The result was validated using the Area Under Curve (AUC) method with a separate set of landslide locations and the validation demonstrates high prediction accuracy with a prediction rate of 81.32%.  相似文献   

9.
In order to meet the requirements of data collection in field survey of forest fires, this paper designed and realized a data collection system for forest fire field survey based on mobile smart phones with Android system. This android intelligent mobile terminal application contains three main data collection functions which are forest fuel data collection, forest fire events survey data collection and wildfire experiment data collection. Moreover, this intelligent mobile terminal application could overlay the spatial location of the collected data and Google map, which can facilitate users to understand the surrounding environment of the collected location. The intelligent mobile terminal application can easily record the text and numeric data when collecting forest fire data in field. Spatial locations, pictures, videos and other multimedia information can also be obtained by GPS and camera with the intelligent terminal. The system has been initially applied in the field works and obtained very good practical effect.  相似文献   

10.
Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices.  相似文献   

11.
Wildfires became a severeecological and financial problem in Israel during the last few years. A significant increase in the incidence of severe wildfires in natural shrublands and planted forests as arson was observed. On 19–20. 9. 89 a large wildfire ignited as an act of terrorism, devastated large parts of Mt. Carmel forests.Weather conditions during a wildfire have an important role in the determination of the rate of spread of the fire. This depends mainly on the availability of dry matter and the wind speed. Two factors that reach their optimum at the end of the summer in September and October during Sharav episodes. The distribution of easterly wind spells associated with Sharav events is considered. The results show that there is no climatic limitation to a spread of a wildfire of the same order of magnitude as the last one, every year.  相似文献   

12.
The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.  相似文献   

13.
The presented research was performed in order to model the fire risk in a part of Hyrcanian forests of Iran. The fuzzy sets integrated with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a decision-making algorithm using geographic information system (GIS) was used to model the fire risk in the study area. The used factors included four major criteria (topographic, biologic, climatic, and human factors) and their 17 sub-criteria. Fuzzy AHP method was used for estimating the importance (weight) of the effective factors in forest fire. Based on this modeling method, the expert ideas were used to express the relative importance and priority of the major criteria and sub-criteria in forest fire risk in the study area. The expert ideas mean was analyzed based on fuzzy extent analysis. Then, the fuzzy weights of criteria and sub-criteria were obtained. The major criteria models and fire risk model were presented based on these fuzzy weights. On the other hand, the spatial data of 17 sub-criteria were provided and organized in GIS to obtain the sub-criteria maps. Each sub-criterion map was converted to raster format and it was reclassified based on risk of its classes to fire occurrence. Then, all sub-criteria maps were converted to fuzzy format using fuzzy membership function in GIS. The fuzzy map of each major criterion (topographic, biologic, climatic, and human criteria) was obtained by weighted overlay of its sub-criteria fuzzy maps considering to major criterion model in GIS. Finally, the fuzzy map of fire risk was obtained by weighted overlay of major criteria fuzzy maps considering to fire risk model in GIS. The actual fire map was used for validation of fire risk model and map. The results showed that the fuzzy estimated weights of human, biologic, climatic, and topographic criteria in fire risk were 0.301, 0.2595, 0.2315, and 0.208, respectively. The results obtained from the fire risk map showed that 38.74% of the study area has very high and high risk for fire occurrence. Results of validation of the fire risk map showed that 80% of the actual fires were located in the very high and high risk areas in fire risk map. It can show the acceptable accuracy of the fire risk model and map obtained from fuzzy AHP in this study. The obtained fire risk map can be used as a decision support system for predicting of the future fires in the study area.  相似文献   

14.
Flooding can have catastrophic effects on human lives and livelihoods and thus comprehensive flood management is needed. Such management requires information on the hydrologic, geotechnical, environmental, social, and economic aspects of flooding. The number of flood events that took place in Busan, South Korea, in 2009 exceeded the normal situation for that city. Mapping the susceptible areas helps us to understand flood trends and can aid in appropriate planning and flood prevention. In this study, a combination of bivariate probability analysis and multivariate logistic regression was used to produce flood susceptibility maps of Busan City. The main aim of this research was to overcome the weakness of logistic regression regarding bivariate probability capabilities. A flood inventory map with a total of 160 flood locations was extracted from various sources. Then, the flood inventory was randomly split into a testing dataset 70 % for training the models and the remaining 30 %, which was used for validation. Independent variables datasets included the rainfall, digital elevation model, slope, curvature, geology, green farmland, rivers, slope, soil drainage, soil effect, soil texture, stream power index, timber age, timber density, timber diameter, and timber type. The impact of each independent variable on flooding was evaluated by analyzing each independent variable with the dependent flood layer. The validation dataset, which was not used for model generation, was used to evaluate the flood susceptibility map using the prediction rate method. The results of the accuracy assessment showed a success rate of 92.7 % and a prediction rate of 82.3 %.  相似文献   

15.
利用我国海量地质标准基础数据库中的数字地质图和矿产图,通过基于GIS的地质解译空间集成地质信息,将其用于综合信息矿产预测。以地质解译系统对内蒙大兴安岭南段1∶20万成矿预测的应用为案例,阐述地质信息的空间提取与集成过程：首先在建立地质字典库实现地质空间信息共享的基础上,通过矿化密集区对地质模型的分类图层进行空间分析,建立地质成矿空间信息库和图库;然后,基于典型矿床圈定模型单元,通过模型单元与地质成矿空间信息库和图库的空间分析,建立地质找矿模型;最后,基于地质单元对地质成矿空间信息库和图库的二次空间集成,完成预测模型的地质空间信息提取与集成。将本方法应用在银矿案例的综合信息矿产预测靶区评价上,得到可供进一步查证的新增靶区比已知靶区增加了近5倍。  相似文献   

16.
Landslides are a major natural hazard in the Bamenda highlands of Cameroon, and their occurrence in this region has most often been studied using qualitative methods. The aim of this research is to quantitatively assess the spatial probability of landslides using GIS and the informative value model. Landslide inventory was done through literature review, aerial photo-interpretation, participatory GIS and field survey. Six geo-environmental factors including slope, curvature, aspect, land use, lithology and geomorphology were used as landslide conditioning (static) factors. The susceptibility of the area to future landslide events was assessed by making a correlation between past landslides and geo-environmental factors using the informative value model. The landslide inventory involving 110 landslides was divided into two equal groups using random division criterion and was used to train and validate the model. The analysis showed that slope and land use are the most important causal factors of landslides in the area. The susceptibility index map predicted most landslides to occur around the steep slopes of the Bamenda escarpment that is being used for multiple anthropic activities. The training model had a success rate of 87%, and the validation model had a prediction rate of 90%. The prediction rate curve shows that 44, 32, 18 and 6% of future landslides will occur on 3, 8, 21 and 68% of the study area. The model correctly classified 89% of unstable areas and 81% of the stable areas with an accuracy rate of 0.90. This quantitative result complement other qualitative assessment results that show the Bamenda escarpment zone as a high-risk area. However, the area susceptible to landslide in this study goes beyond what earlier studies had indicated as houses and other infrastructure were found on old landslide sites whose scars have been eroded by human activities. This new input thus improves the quality of information placed at the disposal of civil protection units and land use managers during decision making.  相似文献   

17.
Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior by overlaying simulated fire perimeters with mapped HVRA polygons to estimate conditional distributions of HVRA area burned. This information can be especially useful for assessing risks where cumulative effects and the spatial pattern and extent of area burned influence HVRA response to fire. We illustrate our modeling approach and demonstrate application across real-world landscapes for two case studies: first, a comparative analysis of exposure and area burned across ten municipal watersheds on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Montana, USA, and second, fireshed delineation and exposure analysis of a geographically isolated and limited area of critical wildlife habitat on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests in Colorado, USA. We highlight how this information can be used to inform prioritization and mitigation decisions and can be used complementarily with more traditional pixel-based burn probability and fire intensity metrics in an expanded exposure analysis framework.  相似文献   

18.
Systematic planning for groundwater exploration using modern techniques is essential for the proper utilization, protection and management of this vital resource. Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images, a geographic information system (GIS), a watershed modeling system (WMS) and weighted spatial probability modeling (WSPM) were integrated to identify the groundwater potential areas in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. Eight pertinent thematic layers were built in a GIS and assigned appropriate rankings. Layers considered were: rainfall, net groundwater recharge, lithology or infiltration, lineament density, slope, drainage density, depth to groundwater, and water quality. All these themes were assigned weights according to their relative importance to groundwater potentiality and their corresponding normalized weights were obtained based on their effectiveness factors. The groundwater potentiality map was finally produced by WSPM. This map comprises five gradational groundwater potentiality classes ranging from very high to very low. The validity of this unbiased GIS-based model was tested by correlating its results with the published hydrogeological map of Egypt and the actual borehole yields, where a concordant justification was reached. The map declared that the Sinai Peninsula is generally of moderate groundwater potentiality, where this class encompasses an area of 33,120?km2 which represents 52% of its total area.  相似文献   

19.
数值天气预报检验方法研究进展   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  
数值天气预报检验是改进及应用数值模式的重要环节。近年来,模式检验中的观念不断更新,适用于不同预报产品及不同用户需求的模式检验方法也不断涌现。首先简单回顾了以列联表为基础的传统的模式检验方法。其次重点总结了伴随高分辨率数值预报而出现的空间诊断检验技术,按照检验目的的不同,诊断方法可以归纳为:①基于滤波技术的分辨模式在不同时空尺度上预报能力的邻域法、尺度分离法;②利用位移偏差诊断模式预报位置、面积、方位、轴角等与观测差异的属性判别法、变形评估法。然后阐述了集合样本成员的概率分布函数(PDF)、集合预报与观测概率分布函数相似程度、事件发生的概率预报等集合预报检验方法。最后论述了空间诊断技术、集合预报检验方法的适用领域,并讨论了模式检验中存在的一些问题及未来的发展方向。  相似文献   

20.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D(early effective rainfall-rainfall duration)阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量(early effective rainfall,EE)和降雨历时(D)为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示：(1)宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;(2)2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;(3)C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知...  相似文献   

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