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1.
We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical regression model that extends the traditional least-squares regression model used to estimate gravity or spatial interaction relations involving origin-destination flows. Spatial interaction models attempt to explain variation in flows from n origin regions to n destination regions resulting in a sample of N = n 2 observations that reflect an n by n flow matrix converted to a vector. Explanatory variables typically include origin and destination characteristics as well as distance between each region and all other regions. Our extension introduces latent spatial effects parameters structured to follow a spatial autoregressive process. Individual effects parameters are included in the model to reflect latent or unobservable influences at work that are unique to each region treated as an origin and destination. That is, we estimate 2n individual effects parameters using the sample of N = n 2 observations. We illustrate the method using a sample of commodity flows between 18 Spanish regions during the 2002 period.  相似文献   

2.
Socio‐demographic data are typically collected at various levels of aggregation, leading to the modifiable areal unit problem. Spatial non‐stationarity of statistical associations between variables further influences the demographic analyses. This study investigates the implications of these two phenomena within the context of migration‐environment associations. Global and local statistical models are fit across increasing levels of aggregation using household level survey data from rural South Africa. We raise the issue of operational scale sensitivity, which describes how the explanatory power of certain variables depends on the aggregation level. We find that as units of analysis (households) are aggregated, some variables become non‐significant in the global models, while others are less sensitive to aggregation. Local model results show that aggregation reduces spatial variation in migration‐related local associations but also affects variables differently. Spatial non‐stationarity appears to be the driving force behind this phenomenon as the results from the global model mask this relationship. Operational scale sensitivity appears related to the underlying spatial autocorrelation of the non‐aggregated variables but also to the way a variable is constructed. Understanding operational scale sensitivity can help to refine the process of selecting variables related to the scale of analysis and better understand the effects of spatial non‐stationarity on statistical relationships.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, we distinguish three constrained variants of the gravity model of spatial interaction: doubly constrained, production constrained and attraction constrained exponential gravity models. These model variants include origin- and/or destination-specific balancing factors that act as constraints to ensure that the estimated rows and columns of the flow data matrix sum to the observed row and column totals. Because flows are typically counts, the Poisson rather than the normal probability model specification furnishes the appropriate statistical distribution, and parameter estimation can be achieved via Poisson regression. This probability model specification motivates the use of origin and/or destination fixed effects or—under certain conditions—the use of origin- and/or destination-specific random effects for model estimation. The paper establishes theoretical connections between balancing factors, fixed effects represented by binary indicator variables and random effects. The results pertaining to both the doubly and singly constrained cases of spatial interaction are illustrated with an empirical example while accounting for spatial dependence between flows from locations neighbouring both the origins and destinations during estimation.  相似文献   

4.
This study evaluates how watershed discretization affects estimation of hydrologic parameters using GIS data. Two aggregation methods were evaluated using three GIS data sets for a large watershed in Kansas, which is discretized into five different levels. The two aggregation methods are weighted-average and dominant-value. The three GIS data sets, soils, land use, and temperature, constitute three commonly used hydrologic parameters with distinct spatial patterns. The study evaluated the aggregation effects measured in terms of statistical distribution, spatial distribution, information level, and spatial dependence of the aggregated data. Results indicate that: (1) statistically, the mean and modal values of the source data are well preserved through aggregation but with a reduced standard deviation; (2) changes in spatial patterns are less predictable than those of the statistical distribution, and the changes depend on the geometric similarity and spatial overlap between the source and target polygons; (3) the information level in general decreases with aggregation for the dominant method, and it increases for the average method although the original values are altered; and (4) spatial dependence generally increases with aggregation.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

Socioeconomic and health analysts commonly rely on areally aggregated data, in part because government regulations on confidentiality prohibit data release at the individual level. Analytical results from areally aggregated data, however, are sensitive to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Levels of aggregation as well as the arbitrary and modifiable sizes, shapes, and arrangements of zones affect the validity and reliability of findings from analyses of areally aggregated data. MAUP, long acknowledged, remains unresolved. We present an exploratory spatial data analytical approach (ESDA) to understand the scalar effects of MAUP. To characterize relationships between data aggregation structures and spatial scales, we develop a method for statistically and visually exploring the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) exhibited between a variable and itself across varying levels of aggregation. We demonstrate our approach by analyzing the across-scale relationships of aggregated 2010 median income for the State of Pennsylvania and 2005–2009 cancer diagnosis rates for the State of New York between county–tract, tract–block group, and county–block group level US census designated enumeration units. This method for understanding the relationship between MAUP and spatial scale provides guidance to researchers in selecting the most appropriate scales to aggregate, analyze, and represent data for problem-specific analyses.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

The mean height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) of children under five is an important indicator of the health status of a population. HAZ values are frequently aggregated and reported at the national level, potentially obscuring important within-country variation. We evaluated aggregation and interpolation methods to provide sub-national estimates over space and time, using survey data from Nigeria in 1990, 2003, 2008, and 2013. We aggregated HAZ values by region and by state, and interpolated the values spatially and spatio-temporally using thin plate splines. The results were evaluated with cross-validation using the root mean squared error (RMSE) as a measure of goodness of fit. Mean HAZ values increased from 1990 to 2013, but values rose more sharply in southern Nigeria than in the North. All methods performed better than assuming a constant national average. The state-level aggregation, and the spatial and spatio-temporal interpolations had similar RMSE values, but the interpolation methods showed more detailed spatial variation. Spatio-temporal interpolation produced good results in all conditions, including in years with sparse sampling and when extrapolating to years for which there were no observations.  相似文献   

7.
Spatial accessibility is an enduring topic of spatial analysis that is intimately tied to issues of spatial representation and scale. A variety of methods to measure accessibility have been developed with most research focusing on metropolitan‐sized spatial extents using census‐defined aggregation units and relying on vector point representation to calculate Euclidean or network distances as key ingredients in measure formulations. Less research considers broader scales where both origin and destination points are treated as polygons. This research develops alternative gravity‐based measures of polygon‐to‐polygon accessibility for a case study of county‐level accessibility to national forests in the western US. Different methods of county and forest representation are implemented using census block centroids and a lattice approach for disaggregation and re‐aggregation. Other characteristics that are analyzed include origin‐destination linkage definitions, population weighting, and distance thresholds. Correlation analysis is used to assess relationships of alternative measures with a simple percentage measure and with each other. Low correlations would suggest that measures capture different aspects of accessibility that are related to their qualitative characteristics. Results show the alternative measures to be dissimilar from the percentage measure; however, high correlations among alternative measures suggest that there is little to differentiate certain disaggregated measures in spite of their richer qualitative interpretation.  相似文献   

8.
利用主成分分析揭示变量之间关系的特性,进而提出一种既能保证较高精度又能较好地保持地形形态特征的DEM格网聚合方法。首先根据主成分变换模型推导DEM格网聚合数学公式,构建主成分聚合模型;然后以30m分辨率DEM转换为90m分辨率DEM为例,根据格网点属性间的权重关系聚合重构DEM。在此基础上,以均值聚合和双线性重采样聚合方法为比较对象,从聚合前后的检查点高程偏差的统计描述、空间分布与自相关性、地形形态保持程度方面分析3种聚合策略下重构DEM的误差特性。最后运用描述统计、半变异分析和等高线套合方法,定量评价主成分聚合重构DEM的质量效果。试验分析结果表明,同均值聚合和重采样聚合相比较,该方法重构的DEM既能保持较高精度,又能很好地保持地形形态特征。  相似文献   

9.
In this paper we detail a multivariate spatial regression model that couples LiDAR, hyperspectral and forest inventory data to predict forest outcome variables at a high spatial resolution. The proposed model is used to analyze forest inventory data collected on the US Forest Service Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF), ME, USA. In addition to helping meet the regression model's assumptions, results from the PEF analysis suggest that the addition of multivariate spatial random effects improves model fit and predictive ability, compared with two commonly applied modeling approaches. This improvement results from explicitly modeling the covariation among forest outcome variables and spatial dependence among observations through the random effects. Direct application of such multivariate models to even moderately large datasets is often computationally infeasible because of cubic order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. We apply a spatial dimension reduction technique to help overcome this computational hurdle without sacrificing richness in modeling.  相似文献   

10.
A series of recent papers have introduced some explorative methods based on Ripley’s K-function (Ripley in J R Stat Soc B 39(2):172–212, 1977) analyzing the micro-geographical patterns of firms. Often the spatial heterogeneity of an area is handled by referring to a case–control design, in which spatial clusters occur as over-concentrations of firms belonging to a specific industry as opposed to the distribution of firms in the whole economy. Therefore, positive, or negative, spatial dependence between firms occurs when a specific sector of industry is seen to present a more aggregated pattern (or more dispersed) than is common in the economy as a whole. This approach has led to the development of relative measures of spatial concentration which, as a consequence, are not straightforwardly comparable across different economies. In this article, we explore a parametric approach based on the inhomogeneous K-function (Baddeley et al. in Statistica Nederlandica 54(3):329–350, 2000) that makes it possible to obtain an absolute measure of the industrial agglomeration that is also able to capture spatial heterogeneity. We provide an empirical application of the approach taken with regard to the spatial distribution of high-tech industries in Milan (Italy) in 2001.  相似文献   

11.
Numerous studies attempted to associate search engine data with travel behaviors. However, most existing studies focus on the destinations of search and travel, while ignoring the origins, which embed critical information of where the search requests were initiated and where the travelers came from. In this study, we explore the relationships between two types of intercity origin–destination flow data, namely travel flows and search flows, which, respectively, record the number of travelers and search requests from one city towards another. By comparing the two flows during holiday and non-holiday, we examine their complex spatiotemporal relationships from multiple perspectives, including time-lag effect, distance decay effect, spatial autocorrelation, network community, cities' rankings, and important factors of search and travel activities. The findings can deepen our understanding of search and travel behaviors, hence they can help decision makers to develop targeted strategies to enhance city's attractiveness, improve transportation infrastructure, and promote tourism.  相似文献   

12.
Recent literature on border effect has fostered research on informal barriers to trade and the role played by network dependencies. In relation to social networks, it has been shown that intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with migration flows between pairs of countries/regions. In this article, we investigate whether such a relation also holds for interregional trade of services. We also consider whether interregional trade flows in services linked with tourism exhibit spatial and/or social network dependence. Conventional empirical gravity models assume the magnitude of bilateral flows between regions is independent of flows to/from regions located nearby in space, or flows to/from regions related through social/cultural/ethic network connections. With this aim, we provide estimates from a set of gravity models showing evidence of statistically significant spatial and network (demographic) dependence in the bilateral flows of the trade of services considered. The analysis has been applied to the Spanish intra- and interregional monetary flows of services from the accommodation, restaurants and travel agencies for the period 2000–2009, using alternative datasets for the migration stocks and definitions of network effects.  相似文献   

13.
Environmental models constructed with a spatial domain require choices about the representation of space. Decisions in the adaptation of a spatial data model can have significant consequences on the ability to predict environmental function as a result of changes to levels of aggregation of input parameters and scaling issues in the processes being modelled. In some cases, it is possible to construct a systematic framework to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions using different spatial models; in other cases, the realm of possibilities plus the complexity of the environmental model in question may inhibit numeric uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate a range of potential spatial data models to parameterize a landscape‐level hydroecological model (RHESSys). The effects of data model choice are illustrated, both in terms of input parameter distributions and resulting ecophysiological predictions. Predicted productivity varied widely, as a function of both the number of modelling units, and of arbitrary decisions such as the origin of a raster grid. It is therefore important to use as much information about the modelled environment as possible. Combinations of adaptive methods to evaluate distributions of input data, plus knowledge of dominant controls of ecosystem processes, can help evaluate potential representations. In this case, variance‐based delineation of vegetation patches is shown to improve the ability to intelligently choose a patch distribution that minimizes the number of patches, while maintaining a degree of aggregation that does not overly bias the predictions.  相似文献   

14.
Soil nutrient maps based on intensive soil sampling are useful to adopt site-specific management practices. Geostatistical methods have been widely used to determine the spatial correlation and the range of spatial dependence at different sampling scales. If spatial dependence is detected, the modeled semivariograms can then be used to map the interested variable by kriging, an interpolation method that produces unbiased estimates with minimal estimation variance. The objectives of this paper were to examine and map the spatial distribution of the soil micronutrients Cu, Zn, Fe and Mn on an agricultural area in Kupwara, J&K, under temperate climatic conditions. The ordinary kriging was first used to determine the values for the non-sampled locations, and then the indicator approach was used to transform the micronutrient content values into binary values having the mean values of each nutrient as the threshold content. All four elements analyzed showed spatial dependence using the indicator semivariograms. The strength of spatial dependence was assessed using the values of nugget effect and range from the semivariogram, the fitted range values decreased in the order Zn > Cu > Mn > Fe. The spatial dependence of the combination of two or more of the studied micronutrients was also examined using indicator semivariograms. In opposition to spatial analysis of individual microelements, indicator semivariograms obtained for the binary coding of the variables showed a great nugget effect value or a low proportion of sill. The maps for each nutrient obtained using indicator kriging showed some similarity in the spatial distribution, suggesting the delimitation of uniform management areas.  相似文献   

15.
An intense process of urbanization, witnessed particularly in the last decade, has stressed the need to comprehend human mobility behavior in urban settings. Although the emergence of contributed geospatial data (i.e., pervasive activity‐based data) has contributed to substantial progress toward understanding human activity, the relationship between human‐crowd mobility and the functional structure of a city is not yet well understood. In this context, the present research focuses on the intra‐urban origin–destination matrix modeling founded on a combination of two major crowdsourced datasets as well as the inclusion of urban communities’ structure. Specifically, the well‐known “radiation” and “PWO” models were modified through first, identifying the communities embedded in the cyberspace network then employing the identified hierarchical structure of the spatial‐interaction network for the formulation of the users’ movement network and second, imposing proper input variables including the telecommunication activity volume and check‐in frequency. The results obtained by various empirical analyses suggest that the modified community‐constrained origin–destination flow estimation models exhibit better performance levels than those of alternative conventional mobility models.  相似文献   

16.
Mobility and spatial interaction data have become increasingly available due to the wide adoption of location‐aware technologies. Examples of mobility data include human daily activities, vehicle trajectories, and animal movements, among others. In this article we focus on a special type of mobility data, i.e. origin‐destination pairs, and present a new approach to the discovery and understanding of spatio‐temporal patterns in the movements. Specifically, to extract information from complex connections among a large number of point locations, the approach involves two steps: (1) spatial clustering of massive GPS points to recognize potentially meaningful places; and (2) extraction and mapping of the flow measures of clusters to understand the spatial distribution and temporal trends of movements. We present a case study with a large dataset of taxi trajectories in Shenzhen, China to demonstrate and evaluate the methodology. The contribution of the research is two‐fold. First, it presents a new methodology for detecting location patterns and spatial structures embedded in origin‐destination movements. Second, the approach is scalable to large data sets and can summarize massive data to facilitate pattern extraction and understanding.  相似文献   

17.
On aggregation in spatial econometric modelling   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The spatial aggregation problem – also termed the modifiable areal unit problem – has attracted regular attention in spatial statistics and econometrics. In this study econometric aggregation analysis is used to investigate the formal composition of meso-areal parameters given micro-areal underlying relations with spatial dependence. Impact on stochastic terms (possible meso-areal spatial autocorrelation) is also studied. Finally consequences for meso-areal estimation are derived, the general finding having been that spatial aggregation leads to meso-region specific parameter values, with the estimation problems this implies.  相似文献   

18.
Discrete Markov chain models (DMCs) have been widely applied to the study of regional income distribution dynamics and convergence. This popularity reflects the rich body of DMC theory on the one hand and the ability of this framework to provide insights on the internal and external properties of regional income distribution dynamics on the other. In this paper we examine the properties of tests for spatial effects in DMC models of regional distribution dynamics. We do so through a series of Monte Carlo simulations designed to examine the size, power and robustness of tests for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence in transitional dynamics. This requires that we specify a data generating process for not only the null, but also alternatives when spatial heterogeneity or spatial dependence is present in the transitional dynamics. We are not aware of any work which has examined these types of data generating processes in the spatial distribution dynamics literature. Results indicate that tests for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence display good power for the presence of spatial effects. However, tests for spatial heterogeneity are not robust to the presence of strong spatial dependence, while tests for spatial dependence are sensitive to the spatial configuration of heterogeneity. When the spatial configuration can be considered random, dependence tests are robust to the dynamic spatial heterogeneity, but not so to the process mean heterogeneity when the difference in process means is large relative to the variance of the time series.  相似文献   

19.
Within-season forecasting of crop yields is of great economic, geo-strategic and humanitarian interest. Satellite Earth Observation now constitutes a valuable and innovative way to provide spatio-temporal information to assist such yield forecasts. This study explores different configurations of remote sensing time series to estimate of winter wheat yield using either spatially finer but temporally sparser time series (5daily at 100 m spatial resolution) or spatially coarser but denser (300 m and 1 km at daily frequency) time series. Furthermore, we hypothesised that better yield estimations could be made using thermal time, which is closer to the crop physiological development. Time series of NDVI from the PROBA-V instrument, which has delivered images at a spatial resolution of 100 m, 300 m and 1 km since 2013, were extracted for 39 fields for field and 56 fields for regional level analysis across Northern France during the growing season 2014-2015. An asymmetric double sigmoid model was fitted on the NDVI series of the central pixel of the field. The fitted model was subsequently integrated either over thermal time or over calendar time, using different baseline NDVI thresholds to mark the start and end of the cropping season. These integrated values were used as a predictor for yield using a simple linear regression and yield observations at field level. The dependency of this relationship on the spatial pixel purity was analysed for the 100 m, 300 m and 1 km spatial resolution. At field level, depending on the spatial resolution and the NDVI threshold, the adjusted R² ranged from 0.20 to 0.74; jackknifed – leave-one-field-out cross validation – RMSE ranged from 0.6 to 1.07 t/ha and MAE ranged between 0.46 and 0.90 t/ha for thermal time analysis. The best results for yield estimation (adjusted R² = 0.74, RMSE =0.6 t/ha and MAE =0.46 t/ha) were obtained from the integration over thermal time of 100 m pixel resolution using a baseline NDVI threshold of 0.2 and without any selection based on pixel purity. The field scale yield estimation was aggregated to the regional scale using 56 fields. At the regional level, there was a difference of 0.0012 t/ha between thermal and calendar time for average yield estimations. The standard error of mean results showed that the error was larger for a higher spatial resolution with no pixel purity and smaller when purity increased. These results suggest that, for winter wheat, a finer spatial resolution rather than a higher revisit frequency and an increasing pixel purity enable more accurate yield estimations when integrated over thermal time at the field scale and at the regional scale only if higher pixel purity levels are considered. This method can be extended to larger regions, other crops, and other regions in the world, although site and crop-specific adjustments will have to include other threshold temperatures to reflect the boundaries of phenological activity. In general, however, this methodological approach should be applicable to yield estimation at the parcel and regional scales across the world.  相似文献   

20.
城市内部就业人口流动作为城市群体的主要移动形式,分析其特征及形成机理对城市规划、交通预测等具有重要意义。基于武汉市手机信令数据,识别职住人口分布与流动,构建城市内部就业流动网络。运用网络分析、可达性计算、逻辑回归等方法,分析城市内部就业流动的特征及其形成机制。研究表明,武汉市内部就业流动在数量上分布不均衡,大量就业流动集中于少数街道间。在空间上,就业流动随距离、可达时间增加而减少,并依地形、文化形成若干联系紧密的就业社区;以就业流出地居住人口、流入地工作人口度量的就业势能是驱动就业流动的最主要因素,而文化差异、空间不邻近、可达性差阻碍就业流动的发生。此外,不同产业特色对就业流动影响不同,商业、科教阻碍就业外流,工业吸引外来就业。  相似文献   

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