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1.
Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and high-resolution modeling on large domains are discussed. 相似文献
2.
We review the methodologies used to quantify climate feedbacks in coupled models. The method of radiative kernels is outlined and used to illustrate the dependence of lapse rate, water vapor, surface albedo, and cloud feedbacks on (1) the length of the time average used to define two projected climate states and (2) the time separation between the two climate states. Except for the shortwave component of water vapor feedback, all feedback processes exhibit significant high-frequency variations and intermodel variability of feedback strengths for sub-decadal time averages. It is also found that the uncertainty of lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedback decreases with the increase in the time separation. The results suggest that one can substantially reduce the uncertainty of cloud and other feedbacks with the accumulation of accurate, long-term records of satellite observations; however, several decades may be required. 相似文献
3.
Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) general circulation model (CCM2), a suite of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations has been tested. Our methodology relies on perpetual July integrations driven by ±2 K sea surface temperature forcing. The tested parameterizations include relative humidity based clouds and versions of schemes involving a prognostic cloud water budget. We are especially interested in testing the effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks on global climate sensitivity. All schemes exhibit negative cloud radiation feedbacks, i.e., cloud moderates the global warming. However, these negative net cloud radiation feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between a scheme with interactive cloud radiative properties and several schemes with specified cloud water paths. An increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative scheme, while a decrease in cloud amount leads to a positive shortwave feedback for the other schemes. For the longwave feedbacks, a decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback, while no distinct changes in effective high cloudiness and the resulting feedback are exhibited for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. The resulting magnitude of negative net cloud radiation feed-back is largest for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. Even though the simulated values of cloud radiative forcing for the present climate using this method differ most from the observational data, the approach shows great promise for the future. 相似文献
4.
We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere. 相似文献
5.
Large-scale fields of soil moisture are forced by atmospheric precipitation and radiative forcing. When these forcing factors
are themselves influenced by surface and soil moisture processes, the result is a nonlinear land-atmosphere system with inherent
feedback mechanisms that may strongly modulate variability in climate. Given such feedbacks, simple randomness in the forcing
factors may be manifested as a complex statistical signature in the surface hydrology. In this paper, we investigate the impacts
of non-Gaussian and colored-noise on the probability distribution of soil moisture resulting from the statistical-dynamical
land-atmosphere interaction model of Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1991). Persistence of hydroclimatologic anomalies as characterized
by the correlation time scale of soil moisture is discussed. 相似文献
6.
Jingfeng Wang Rafael L. Bras Dara Entekhabi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(2):95-114
Large-scale fields of soil moisture are forced by atmospheric precipitation and radiative forcing. When these forcing factors
are themselves influenced by surface and soil moisture processes, the result is a nonlinear land-atmosphere system with inherent
feedback mechanisms that may strongly modulate variability in climate. Given such feedbacks, simple randomness in the forcing
factors may be manifested as a complex statistical signature in the surface hydrology. In this paper, we investigate the impacts
of non-Gaussian and colored-noise on the probability distribution of soil moisture resulting from the statistical-dynamical
land-atmosphere interaction model of Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1991). Persistence of hydroclimatologic anomalies as characterized
by the correlation time scale of soil moisture is discussed. 相似文献
7.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》1999,61(1-2):63-72
Computer simulations of the impact on climate of solar variability generally fall into four categories. First, there are lower atmosphere GCM experiments, in which enhanced solar activity is represented by changes in spectrally integrated solar constant. Secondly, there are GCM studies of the dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to changes in solar ultraviolet, mainly concentrating on the northern hemisphere winter, and how these impact the troposphere. These studies have been instructive in providing an understanding of some of the mechanisms involved but, because of the very different nature of the assumptions made, give rather different suggestions as to potential patterns of change. In particular predicted zonal mean temperature changes in the lower stratosphere are usually of opposite sign in these two types of experiment. None of these GCM studies include interactive photochemistry and the third category of modelling work is concerned with the photochemical response of the middle atmosphere to enhanced solar ultraviolet. These generally employ 2D models to predict changes in ozone and other gaseous species. Recently it has been realised that the responses (to a variety of external forcings) of the lower and middle atmospheres are linked through both radiative and dynamical mechanisms and should not be viewed in isolation from each other. Thus the fourth type of modelling study, which is still in its infancy, attempts to represent solar variability by realistic changes in both irradiance and ozone concentrations. In this paper these various modelling studies are reviewed and some new results presented which confirm previous theoretical suggestions that, in the northern hemisphere winter, the atmosphere may respond to solar changes in a similar way as to the injection of volcanic aerosol. The implications of the results of the model studies for the detection of solar-induced climate change are discussed. 相似文献
8.
Climate and variability bias adjustment of climate model-derived winds for a southeast Australian dynamical wave model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Climate models are increasingly being used to force dynamical wind wave models in order to assess the potential climate change-driven
variations in wave climate. In this study, an ensemble of wave model simulations have been used to assess the ability of climate
model winds to reproduce the present-day (1981–2000) mean wave climate and its seasonal variability for the southeast coast
of Australia. Surface wind forcing was obtained from three dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3)
global climate model (GCM) simulations (CSIRO Mk3.5, GFDLcm2.0 and GFDLcm2.1). The downscaling was performed using CSIRO’s
cubic conformal atmospheric model (CCAM) over the Australian region at approximately 60-km resolution. The wind climates derived
from the CCAM downscaled GCMs were assessed against observations (QuikSCAT and NCEP Re-analysis 2 (NRA-2) reanalyses) over
the 1981–2000 period and were found to exhibit both bias in mean wind conditions (climate bias) as well as bias in the variance
of wind conditions (variability bias). Comparison of the modelled wave climate with over 20 years of wave data from six wave
buoys in the study area indicates that direct forcing of the wave models with uncorrected CCAM winds result in suboptimal
wave hindcast. CCAM winds were subsequently adjusted for climate and variability bias using a bivariate quantile adjustment
which corrects both directional wind components to align in distribution to the NRA-2 winds. Forcing of the wave models with
bias-adjusted winds leads to a significant improvement of the hindcast mean annual wave climate and its seasonal variability.
However, bias adjustment of the CCAM winds does not improve the ability of the model to reproduce the storm wave climate.
This is likely due to a combination of storm systems tracking too quickly through the wave generation zone and the performance
of the NRA-2 winds used as a benchmark in this study. 相似文献
9.
Salt marshes are globally important ecosystems and thus their resilience to climate change holds societal importance. To date, studies addressing salt marsh responses to climate change have focused on sea-level rise and biogeochemical feedbacks with increasing inundation. Less is known about how salt marsh sediment temperatures, which impact physical, biological, and chemical ecosystem processes, will respond to climate change. In this study, we present multi-depth sediment temperature and porewater level data from low-, mid-, and high-marsh sites at a New England salt marsh for a 1-year period and investigate how salt marsh sediment temperatures respond to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. We use spectral analyses to identify the frequencies at which sediment temperatures vary and link the temperature variations to specific forcing mechanisms. We find that all sites across the marsh responded to air temperature with roughly equal amplitude whereas the responses to radiative heating and ocean tides varied spatially. The high-marsh site is more sensitive to radiative heating than the mid- and low-marsh sites. The low-marsh is affected by tidal processes and inundation whereas the high- and mid-marsh sites are not. In addition, we find that the bulk thermal diffusivity of the saturated sediments decreases with distance from the tidal channel. These factors contribute to considerable temporal and spatial variability in sediment temperatures with elevation, distance from the tidal channel, and time of year (season) being most important. 相似文献
10.
The radiative energy budget of the middle atmosphere and its parameterization in general circulation models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The thermal regime of the middle atmosphere is determined to a great extent by the balance between the incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation. To account for these processes in numerical models of the middle atmosphere, parameterizations that are capable of quickly and accurately calculating infrared cooling and solar heating rates are required. These parameterizations should include the breakdown of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions and allow for feedbacks by ensuring that dependencies on all input parameters are accounted for. This paper discusses the major mechanisms responsible for maintaining the radiative energy budget of the middle atmosphere and presents a brief review of approaches and numerical schemes currently available for use in general circulation models. The main focus of the paper is on the approaches and schemes designed for non-LTE treatment. 相似文献
11.
On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a pronounced signal of climate variability in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature field. In this paper, we propose an explanation of the physical processes responsible for the timescale and the spatial pattern of the AMO. Our approach involves the analysis of solutions of a hierarchy of models. In the lowest member of the model hierarchy, which is an ocean-only model for flow in an idealized basin, the variability shows up as a multidecadal oscillatory mode which is able to destabilize the mean thermohaline circulation. In the highest member of the model hierarchy, which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R30 climate model, multidecadal variability is found as a dominant statistical mode of variability. The connection between both results is established by tracing the spatial and temporal expression of the multidecadal mode through the model hierarchy while monitoring changes in specific quantities (mechanistic indicators) associated with its physics. The proposed explanation of the properties of the AMO is eventually based on the changes in the spatial patterns of variability through the model hierarchy.Responsible Editor: Tal Ezer 相似文献
12.
Richard P. Allan Chunlei Liu Matthias Zahn David A. Lavers Evgenios Koukouvagias Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):533-552
Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks. 相似文献
13.
Timothy Andrews Jonathan M. Gregory Piers M. Forster Mark J. Webb 《Surveys in Geophysics》2012,33(3-4):619-635
Understanding the role of clouds in climate change remains a considerable challenge. Traditionally, this challenge has been framed in terms of understanding cloud feedback. However, recent work suggests that under increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, clouds not only amplify or dampen climate change through global feedback processes, but also through rapid (days to weeks) tropospheric temperature and land surface adjustments. In this article, we use the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadGSM1 to review these recent developments and assess their impact on radiative forcing and equilibrium climate sensitivity. We estimate that cloud adjustment contributes ~0.8?K to the 4.4?K equilibrium climate sensitivity of this particular model. We discuss the methods used to evaluate cloud adjustments, highlight the mechanisms and processes involved and identify low level cloudiness as a key cloud type. Looking forward, we discuss the outstanding issues, such as the application to transient forcing scenarios. We suggest that the upcoming CMIP5 multi-model database will allow a comprehensive assessment of the significance of cloud adjustments in fully coupled atmosphere–ocean-general-circulation models for the first time, and that future research should exploit this opportunity to understand cloud adjustments/feedbacks in non-idealised transient climate change scenarios. 相似文献
14.
Global Dynamics of the MLT 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Anne K. Smith 《Surveys in Geophysics》2012,33(6):1177-1230
The transition between the middle atmosphere and the thermosphere is known as the MLT region (for mesosphere and lower thermosphere). This area has some characteristics that set it apart from other regions of the atmosphere. Most notably, it is the altitude region with the lowest overall temperature and has the unique characteristic that the temperature is much lower in summer than in winter. The summer-to-winter-temperature gradient is the result of adiabatic cooling and warming associated with a vigorous circulation driven primarily by gravity waves. Tides and planetary waves also contribute to the circulation and to the large dynamical variability in the MLT. The past decade has seen much progress in describing and understanding the dynamics of the MLT and the interactions of dynamics with chemistry and radiation. This review describes recent observations and numerical modeling as they relate to understanding the dynamical processes that control the MLT and its variability. Results from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which is a comprehensive high-top general circulation model with interactive chemistry, are used to illustrate the dynamical processes. Selected observations from the Sounding the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument are shown for comparison. WACCM simulations of MLT dynamics have some differences with observations. These differences and other questions and discrepancies described in recent papers point to a number of ongoing uncertainties about the MLT dynamical system. 相似文献
15.
Shuai Li Lihua Xiong Hong-Yi Li L. Ruby Leung Yonas Demissie 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):251-269
Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin, the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956–1990) and human-impacted period (1991–2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models. 相似文献
16.
Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the tool by which projections for climate changes due to radiative forcing scenarios have been produced. Further, regional atmospheric downscaling of the global models may be applied in order to evaluate the details in, e.g., temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, detailed regional information is needed in order to assess the implications of future climate change for the marine ecosystems. However, regional results for climate change in the ocean are sparse. We present the results for the circulation and hydrography of the Barents Sea from the ocean component of two global models and from a corresponding pair of regional model configurations. The global models used are the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3. The ROMS ocean model is used for the regional downscaling of these results (ROMS-G and ROMS-N configurations, respectively). This investigation was undertaken in order to shed light on two questions that are essential in the context of regional ocean projections: (1) How should a regional model be set up in order to take advantage of the results from global projections; (2) What limits to quality in the results of regional models are imposed by the quality of global models? We approached the first question by initializing the ocean model in the control simulation by a realistic ocean analysis and specifying air-sea fluxes according to the results from the global models. For the projection simulation, the global models’ oceanic anomalies from their control simulation results were added upon initialization. Regarding the second question, the present set of simulations includes regional downscalings of the present-day climate as well as projected climate change. Thus, we study separately how downscaling changes the results in the control climate case, and how scenario results are changed. For the present-day climate, we find that downscaling reduces the differences in the Barents Sea between the original global models. Furthermore, the downscaled results are closer to observations. On the other hand, the downscaled results from the scenario simulations are significantly different: while the heat transport into the Barents Sea and the salinity distribution change modestly from control to scenario with ROMS-G, in ROMS-N the heat transport is much larger in the scenario simulation, and the water masses become much less saline. The lack of robustness in the results from the scenario simulations leads us to conclude that the results for the regional oceanic response to changes in the radiative forcing depend on the choice of AOGCM and is not settled. Consequently, the effect of climate change on the marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea is anything but certain. 相似文献
17.
—The radiative-convective feedback and land-sea thermal forcing play significant roles in maintenance of the summer monsoon circulation over the Indian sub-continent. In this study, the role of radiative transfer in maintaining the monsoon circulation is examined with numerical sensitivity experiments. For this purpose, a sixteen layer primitive equation limited area model is used to perform numerical simulations with and without atmospheric radiative transfer processes parameterized in the model. The initial values and boundary conditions for the numerical integrations of the model are derived from operational analyses of the ECMWF, UK. The results show that the radiative transfer is essential in maintaining the intensity of the low level Somali Jet as well as the upper level Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over the Indian sub-continent and adjoining seas. The meridional circulation over the region is also well simulated. As a result, enough moisture transports from the warm equatorial region to simulate more realistic orographic precipitation in the windward side of the mountains along the West coast of India. Without radiative transfer processes in the model atmosphere the simulated monsoon circulation weakens, moisture transport decreases and the precipitation lessens. 相似文献
18.
A new approach to understand the physical processes that govern internal variability of the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation is outlined and current methods and results are reviewed. In this approach, based on the theory of dynamical systems, internal variability is viewed as arising through successive transitions when parameters are changed. The potential of the approach is demonstrated through analysesof solutions of intermediate complexity models of the wind-driven ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. In a quasi-geostrophic modelfor the flow in a rectangular basin with idealized wind forcing, the basic transitions are already found and physical mechanisms at work can be described in detail. Qualitatively, this transition behavior remains robust in more realistic models, having shallow water dynamics, realistic wind forcingand continental geometry, although patterns and time scales changethrough the model hierarchy. The relevance of the results is discussed inrelation to those of observations and of ocean general circulation models. 相似文献
19.
20.
M. R. Allen N. P. Gillett J. A. Kettleborough G. Hegerl R. Schnur P. A. Stott G. Boer C. Covey T. L. Delworth G. S. Jones J. F. B. Mitchell T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544
We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing. 相似文献