Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.
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1.
滇东岩溶断陷盆地区独特的"土在楼上,水在楼下"的岩溶地质地貌特征,导致水资源脆弱性问题逐步突出.当前水资源成为限制当地居民生活、区域经济发展和生态健康的重要因素之一.本研究以滇东断陷盆地中32区县为例,采用经典DPSIR模型为基础构建评价模型,选取水资源开发利用率、人均水资源量等具有代表性的18个指标构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,使用熵值法和层次分析法相互结合进行赋权,对滇东岩溶断陷盆地石漠化区的水资源脆弱性进行了评估.结果表明:滇东岩溶断陷盆大部分区县水资源脆弱性为中度及重度脆弱,其中马龙县、华宁县、罗平县为轻度脆弱.禄劝县、开远市、个旧市和泸西县等县为重度脆弱区,耕地石漠化面积比、人均水资源量、供蓄水比、生态需水满足率以及万元工业增加值用水量是驱动该区域水资源脆弱的关键因素.通过该区域水资源脆弱性评估,本研究有针对性地提出了滇东岩溶断陷盆水资源适应性管理对策,为有效缓解该区域水资源脆弱性提供科学依据. 相似文献
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辛安泉是我国北方岩溶大泉,根据1956～2000年和1980～2000年两个水文系列,利用排泄量法对泉域的天然资源量进行了评价;采用最枯月水资源量分析法、泉水流量衰减法和频率分析法对可采资源量进行计算比较;同时采用补给量法对泉域岩溶水资源量进行了校核。经分析评价得出辛安泉域多年平均天然资源量10.25m3/s是有保证的,水资源可开采量为7.22m3/s,并对泉域水资源的合理配置提出了建议。 相似文献
3.
基于Modflow的岩溶管道概化与模拟探讨 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在复杂岩溶介质中,由于岩溶形态存在小尺度的溶缝到大尺度的岩溶管道的变化,岩溶地下水流呈现为层流-紊流多种流态共存的复杂系统。对含水层中岩溶管道的准确概化是精确模拟复杂岩溶介质地下水流动的前提。在较为成熟的三维有限差分地下水流动模型（等效多孔介质）条件下寻找一种概化岩溶管道的方法,基于Modflow地下水流动模型,分别讨论模型软件中的单元渗流计算子模块（ BCF ）、排水沟子模块（ DRN ）、河流子模块（ RIV ）以及溪流子模块（ STR）对岩溶管道的概化模拟效果,发现河流子模块（ RIV）与溪流子模块（ STR）是概化岩溶管道的最优模块。 相似文献
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天然径流量还原计算是区域水资源量评价的基础,其计算精度直接关系到区域水资源量评价成果的质量.因此要准确计算区域的水资源量,必须对影响径流的农业灌溉耗水量、工业及城市生活引用河水的耗水量、水库蒸发损失水量、水库渗漏水量、水库蓄水变量、跨流域引(排)水量、河道决口或分洪水量进行还原计算,从而得到所需天然年径流量. 相似文献
5.
Well Tester是计算地热含水层水文地质参数的软件,该软件通过对水压力过程曲线进行拟合,进行参数计算。该软件界面友好、操作简单,且具有输出单井报告功能。文章对Well Tester软件各模块及各界进行简要介绍的基础上,以＂北京岩溶水资源勘查评价工程＂中新建岩溶水井为例,对各个操作步骤进行了介绍。通过对比分析Well Tester软件与经验法的结果,表明该软件可对岩溶裂隙含水层的水文地质参数进行计算,且该软件对成井质量评价有一定指导意义。目前该软件还未广泛应用于岩溶裂隙含水层,为获取较多的水文地质参数,笔者认为该软件在我国具有一定的推广价值。 相似文献
6.
基于层次分析法的表层带岩溶水资源评价方法探讨——以大小井流域为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
表层岩溶水调节系数是衡量表层岩溶子系统调节地下水能力的一个物理量,其数值与系统内水文地质条件、气象因素及生态环境质量等相关。采用层次分析法量化处理影响表层岩溶系统调节能力的诸因子,建立了表层带岩溶水资源评价模型。评价方法应用在大小井地下河流域的表层岩溶水资源量的评价上取得了较好的效果,其方法对岩溶石山区表层岩溶水资源评价和开发利用规划具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
7.
岩溶地区地下河系统水资源定量评价的问题与出路 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
岩溶地区含水介质的多重性和高度复杂性,给地下河系统的水资源量评价带来许多难题。在分析地下河系统水资源形成、分布和运移特征基础上,认为目前用于地下水评价的主要方法都不太适用来解决地下河系统水资源量的评价和预测问题。作者在比较地下河与地表水多方面的相似性后,建议引入现代水文学的理论方法和模型来解决岩溶地区地下河系统水资源评价问题,并分析了可能需要解决的若干关键问题。针对岩溶水资源的特征,作者认为,改变传统定量评价的思维、引进现代水文学理论方法和充分利用3S技术,是解决地下河系统水资源定量评价的主要出路。 相似文献
8.
淮北地区夹沟-符离集水源地岩溶水资源评价与利用研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文对夹沟-符离集岩溶水源地水文地质参数进行了分析研究,采用均衡法评价了岩溶水资源量,提出开发方案,分析利用前景,为该地区用水规划及水资源合理配置提供依据. 相似文献
9.
GIS支持下的岩溶塌陷危险性评价 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
通过论证利用GIS技术进行岩溶塌陷危险性定量评价的可行性和优越性，提出了通过发展接口程序将岩溶塌陷评价模型与GIS技术有机结合以快速、准确地完成评价工作的思想，为科学预测重大自然地质灾害提供了一条新的途径，并结合桂林市西城区岩溶塌陷评价的实例，详细论述了GIS支持下岩溶塌陷模糊层次评价的全过程。 相似文献
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Keqiang He Yuyue Jia Weigong Chen Ronglu Wang Huilai Luo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(8):3443-3454
Based on the comprehensive analysis of factors influencing karst collapse in the Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area, China, this paper establishes a karst collapse risk evaluation model by means of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Application of the model led to division of the study area into very high risk area, high risk area, average risk area and low risk area; therefore, the karst collapse risk evaluation map of Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area is completed. As preventive measures of karst collapse, the different karst water resource protection areas of Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area are established, and the map for karst water resource protection area of Zaozhuang Shili Spring Area is compiled. The results will be helpful for the strategic planning and decision-making processes associated with exploitation of karst water resources and with prevention and control of karst collapse hazards of this region. 相似文献
14.
北京西山黑龙关泉域岩溶水系统边界与水文地质性质 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
北方岩溶水系统具有固定补给范围和资源要素,是岩溶地下水进行独立循环的基本单元,控制了岩溶水的运移富集、水化学演化特征、资源构成以及环境地质问题。开展岩溶水系统研究的首要任务是确定系统边界位置及其水文地质性质。以北京西山黑龙关泉域岩溶水系统为研究对象,采用地质学、岩溶动力学、流体动力学、水文地球化学、地球物理勘探等方法,确定黑龙关泉域岩溶水系统是由南部大石河背斜岩溶水子系统和北部百花山向斜南翼岩溶水子系统2个次级系统组成;其含水岩层分别为蓟县系铁岭组、雾迷山组和青白口系景儿峪组、奥陶系、寒武系碳酸盐岩。根据边界的水文地质性质可以划分为地表分水岭边界、地下分水岭边界、隔水边界、岩溶含水层深埋滞流性边界等类型。 相似文献
15.
论证云南岩溶石山地区地下水资源与生态环境地质空间数据库的建设的重要性;介绍空间数据库建设方法、经验、结构及功能,为今后应用GIS技术对岩溶内水文地质、生态环境地质条件、地下水资源的空间分布特点、可采资源量情况进行空间分析奠定基础。 相似文献
16.
Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Frolova N. I. Larionov V. I. Bonnin J. Sushchev S. P. Ugarov A. N. Kozlov M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):63-76
Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing. 相似文献
17.
Yang Xiao-Hua Sun Bo-Yang Zhang Jian Li Mei-Shui He Jun Wei Yi-Ming Li Yu-Qi 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(1):63-81
18.
北京岩溶水系统划分及特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
岩溶水是北京市重要的战略后备水源,在城市供水方面发挥了重大作用,岩溶水系统划分对于掌握岩溶水资源、合理开发利用岩溶水是至关重要的。本文结合地质构造、地形地貌、水文地质条件,考虑含水岩组的连续性、不同级别地表水分水岭、地质构造的水文地质性质,将北京地区划分为3个一级岩溶水系统、7个二级岩溶水系统、16个三级岩溶水系统。其中隐伏型岩溶水系统无裸露的可溶岩或零星分布,天然资源少,地下水径流方向主要受开采影响,与上覆孔隙水有密切的水力联系。山前型岩溶水系统可溶岩分布于山区和平原,岩溶水天然补给资源丰富,含水层厚度大、分布广,调蓄能力强,开发利用程度高,排泄区有明显的阻水边界,储水能力强。山区型岩溶水系统可溶岩分布于山区,地下水向河谷、低洼处径流,排泄速度快,储存能力差,开采井零星分布,开发利用程度低。 相似文献
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