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1.
滑坡是沙溪流域主要地质灾害类型之一,开展滑坡灾害易发性评价可为区域地质灾害防治提供数据基础和决策依据。通过沙溪流域生态地质调查,分析了滑坡灾害分布规律和影响因素之间的关系,选取岩性建造、地貌、坡度、坡向、降雨量、距河流距离和距断层距离7项指标,利用层次分析法及地理信息系统空间分析技术,开展沙溪流域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价。结果显示: 沙溪流域滑坡易发性影响因子依次为岩性建造、多年年均降水量、地形地貌、坡度、距河流距离、距断层距离和坡向; 沙溪流域滑坡灾害易发性与坡度、岩性建造、年均降水量表现出明显正相关,即坡度越大、岩性建造性质越软弱、越易风化,年均降水量越多,越易引发滑坡灾害; 滑坡灾害易发性与断裂构造、河流距离与滑坡灾害易发性呈负相关,即距离越近越容易诱发地质灾害; 流域整体以低易发区和极低易发区为主,高易发区主要分布在沙溪流域中南部、东部及东北部地区。这为沙溪流域地质灾害防治提供了基础数据和决策依据。 相似文献
2.
山区地质灾害易发性评价对城镇地质灾害风险管理具有重要意义。本文以康定市为例,以斜坡单元为最小评价单元,选取高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、工程地质岩组、距道路距离、距断裂距离、距水系距离和斜坡结构等9个滑坡影响因子,根据各因子滑坡面积比曲线与证据权值曲线的突变点,划分滑坡影响因子二级状态,并对各影响因子进行相关性分析,剔除相关性较高的距道路距离因子,在此基础上,采用证据权模型进行滑坡易发性评价。对已有治理工程的斜坡单元,本文尝试利用折减系数法对其易发性进行进一步评价。结合现场调查,将研究区滑坡易发性程度划分为：极高易发、高易发、中等易发、低易发。评价结果表明,自然工况下极高易发区主要位于康定市炉城镇以及研究区北侧二道桥村一带,高易发区主要位于雅拉河、折多河与瓦斯沟河谷两侧,对治理工程所在的斜坡单元进行折减后,极高易发区面积由11.21%降至8.42%,滑坡比率由4.03降低至2.3,研究结果符合实际情况,模型精度达77.8%。评价结果较好地反映了康定市区的滑坡易发性分布情况,可为城镇精细化评价提供一定的参考依据。 相似文献
3.
Logistic regression versus artificial neural networks: landslide susceptibility evaluation in a sample area of the Serchio River valley,Italy 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
F. Falaschi F. Giacomelli P. R. Federici A. Puccinelli G. D’Amato Avanzi A. Pochini A. Ribolini 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(3):551-569
This article presents a multidisciplinary approach to landslide susceptibility mapping by means of logistic regression, artificial
neural network, and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The methodology applied in ranking slope instability developed
through statistical models (conditional analysis and logistic regression), and neural network application, in order to better
understand the relationship between the geological/geomorphological landforms and processes and landslide occurrence, and
to increase the performance of landslide susceptibility models. The proposed experimental study concerns with a wide research
project, promoted by the Tuscany Region Administration and APAT-Italian Geological Survey, aimed at defining the landslide
hazard in the area of the Sheet 250 “Castelnuovo di Garfagnana” (1:50,000 scale). The study area is located in the middle
part of the Serchio River basin and is characterized by high landslide susceptibility due to its geological, geomorphological,
and climatic features, among the most severe in Italy. Terrain susceptibility to slope failure has been approached by means
of indirect-quantitative statistical methods and neural network software application. Experimental results from different
methods and the potentials and pitfalls of this methodological approach have been presented and discussed. Applying multivariate
statistical analyses made it possible a better understanding of the phenomena and quantification of the relationship between
the instability factors and landslide occurrence. In particular, the application of a multilayer neural network, equipped
for supervised learning and error control, has improved the performance of the model. Finally, a first attempt to evaluate
the classification efficiency of the multivariate models has been performed by means of the receiver operating characteristic
(ROC) curves analysis approach. 相似文献
4.
Landslide risk evaluation and hazard zoning for rapid and long-travel landslides in urban development areas 总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2
Risk evaluation for earthquake-induced rapid and long-travel landslides in densely populated urban areas is currently the most important disaster mitigation task in landslide-threatened areas throughout the world. The research achievements of the IPL M-101 APERITIF project were applied to two urban areas in megacities of Japan. One site is in the upper slope of the Nikawa landslide site where previous movements were triggered by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake. During detailed investigation, the slope was found to be at risk from a rapid and long-travel landslide induced by sliding surface liquefaction by earthquakes similar in scale to the 1995 event. A new plan to prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon was proposed and the plan was implemented. Another area is the Tama residential area near Tokyo. A set of field and laboratory investigations including laser scanner, geological drilling and ring-shear tests showed that there was a risk of sliding surface liquefaction for both sites. A geotechnical computer simulation (Rapid/LS) using the quantitative data obtained in the study allowed urban landslide hazard zoning to be made at individual street level. 相似文献
5.
全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。 相似文献
6.
Mowen Xie Tetsuro Esaki Cheng Qiu Chunxiang Wang Zengfu Wang 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2009,27(3):355-364
The slope failure and landslide hazard will possess the same properties within a range including the same engineering geological
conditions. To assess the landslide risk of a mountainous area, the study of landslides previously having occurred is very
important to evaluate the landslide risk around the area in which they took place. Based on the study of the mechanism of
a previous landslide recorded in Kumamoto, Japan, this study initially proposes mechanical parameters for evaluating the landslide
hazard using a 3D slope stability method. For each slope unit in the study area, the critical slip surface, which reveals
the minimum safety factor of a slope, can be obtained. The affected streams and range of possible landslide masses are analyzed
based on the debris flow simulation. This is initially applied to simulate the past landslide event and the result shows the
landslide-deduced debris flow effectively re-displayed. Overlayered with layers of infrastructure in Geographic Information
Systems (GIS), this risk map indicates which houses and road sections remain in dangerous areas. 相似文献
7.
秦岭山区地质构造复杂、岩体结构破碎、斜坡类型特殊,是中国地质灾害高发区之一。为了查明秦岭山区崩滑地质灾害发育的主控因子,以南秦河小流域为例,通过野外实地调查和室内综合研究,查明区内滑坡、崩塌地质灾害的发育特征,分析灾害发育的孕灾环境。最后得出,长期构造变形作用下的地层奠定了灾害发育的物质基础,多种结构面对崩滑灾害的形成起着控制作用,斜坡结构类型控制着崩滑灾害的成灾模式,构造断裂控制着崩滑灾害的空间分布,人类工程活动加剧了崩塌和滑坡的发育程度,而极端降雨是崩滑地质灾害发生的主要诱因。 相似文献
8.
基于GIS的小江断裂中北段滑坡灾害危险性评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
小江断裂中北段作为金沙江下游重大水电工程库区内最重要的活动断裂构造,其沿线滑坡地质灾害发育,严重制约了当地的经济和社会发展。在详细调查了小江断裂中北段沿线滑坡地质灾害的基础上,选取了坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、岸坡结构、断裂构造等9个影响因子作为评价指标,对研究区滑坡灾害的发育分布规律进行了分析研究,并采用AHP-CF法建立了滑坡灾害危险性评价模型,利用GIS空间分析功能得出了研究区滑坡地质灾害危险性分区。通过检验曲线验证滑坡地质危险性评价结果可知,AUC值为80%。 相似文献
9.
四川西-攀高速路山神庙1号隧道进口在施工过程中由于连续降雨突发滑坡灾害,滑坡掩埋了左洞口及下方道路,并对右洞造成危害。由于与隧道的干扰、密切相互作用关系,使该滑坡的治理有别于其它一般的滑坡。在整治设计思路上,综合分析得出对其治理原则,即首先采取抢险工程措施使滑坡暂时稳定,不再发展。后期治理不仅要使滑坡彻底稳固,同时要控制变形,避免对隧道的影响。在工序上应先治理滑坡,再对隧道进行整治和恢复。处治方案上,抢险工程以锚索钢管桩为主,同时采取反压护道、截排水等辅助措施,使滑坡得到了控制。再根据地勘资料和计算,设置了锚索抗滑桩,使滑坡得到稳固。最后对仰坡不稳定坡面设置了框架锚索和锚杆并植草,避免对隧道危害。设立了处治各阶段及长期的监测系统,监测处治效果和变形情况。监测结果反映综合处治效果良好。论文介绍了对该滑坡进行动态综合治理的全过程。对设计治理方案按抢险工程、滑坡稳固工程、仰坡治理工程和监测系统进行了系统总结。 相似文献
10.
Statistical models are one of the most preferred methods among many landslide susceptibility assessment methods. As landslide
occurrences and influencing factors have spatial variations, global models like neural network or logistic regression (LR)
ignore spatial dependence or autocorrelation characteristics of data between the observations in susceptibility assessment.
However, to assess the probability of landslide within a specified period of time and within a given area, it is important
to understand the spatial correlation between landslide occurrences and influencing factors. By including these relations,
the predictive ability of the developed model increases. In this respect, spatial regression (SR) and geographically weighted
regression (GWR) techniques, which consider spatial variability in the parameters, are proposed in this study for landslide
hazard assessment to provide better realistic representations of landslide susceptibility. The proposed model was implemented
to a case study area from More and Romsdal region of Norway. Topographic (morphometric) parameters (slope angle, slope aspect,
curvature, plan, and profile curvatures), geological parameters (geological formations, tectonic uplift, and lineaments),
land cover parameter (vegetation coverage), and triggering factor (precipitation) were considered as landslide influencing
factors. These influencing factors together with past rock avalanche inventory in the study region were considered to obtain
landslide susceptibility maps by using SR and LR models. The comparisons of susceptibility maps obtained from SR and LR show
that SR models have higher predictive performance. In addition, the performances of SR and LR models at the local scale were
investigated by finding the differences between GWR and SR and GWR and LR maps. These maps which can be named as comparison
maps help to understand how the models estimate the coefficients at local scale. In this way, the regions where SR and LR
models over or under estimate the landslide hazard potential were identified. 相似文献
11.
Manifestation of remote sensing data and GIS on landslide hazard analysis using spatial-based statistical models 总被引：15，自引：10，他引：5
This paper presents landslide hazard analysis at Cameron area, Malaysia, using a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data. Landslide locations were identified from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The factors chosen that influence landslide occurrence are topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature, and distance to rivers, all from the topographic database; lithology and distance to faults were taken from the geologic database; land cover from TM satellite image; the vegetation index value was taken from Landsat images; and precipitation distribution from meteorological data. Landslide hazard area was analyzed and mapped using the landslide occurrence factors by frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regression models. The results of the analysis were verified using the landslide location data and compared with the probabilistic models. The validation results showed that the frequency ratio model (accuracy is 89.25%) is better in prediction of landslide than bivariate logistic regression (accuracy is 85.73%) model. 相似文献
12.
利用光学遥感数据、GIS及人工神经网络模型分析区域滑坡灾害 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Biswajeet Pradhan Saro Lee 《地学前缘》2007,14(6):143-152
用光学遥感数据和地理信息系统(GIS)分析了马来西亚Selangor地区的滑坡灾害。通过遥感图像解译和野外调查,在研究区内确定出滑坡发生区。通过GIS和图像处理,建立了一个集地形、地质和遥感图像等多种信息的空间数据库。滑坡发生的因素主要为:地形坡度、地形方位、地形曲率及与排水设备距离;岩性及与线性构造距离;TM图像解译得到的植被覆盖情况;Landsat图像解译得到的植被指数;降水量。通过建立人工神经网络模型对这些因素进行分析后得到滑坡灾害图:由反向传播训练方法确定每个因素的权重值,然后用该权重值计算出滑坡灾害指数,最后用GIS工具生成滑坡灾害图。用遥感解译和野外观测确定出的滑坡位置资料验证了滑坡灾害图,准确率为82.92%。结果表明推测的滑坡灾害图与滑坡实际发生区域足够吻合。 相似文献
13.
Although earthquakes are thought to be one of the factors responsible for the occurrence of landslides in Hokkaido, there
exist no enough records which can allow correlating many of the old slope failures in the island with earthquakes. In the
absence of these records, an attempt was done in this study to use the abundance, frequency, magnitude, depth, and distribution
of historical earthquakes to deduce that many of the slope failures in the region were triggered by strong and continuous
seismicity. The determination of the zones of influences of selected earthquakes using an existing empirical function has
also supported this conclusion. Moreover, the use of a 10% probability of exceedance of earthquake intensity in 50 years,
and the geological and slope maps has allowed preparing a landslide hazard map which explains the role of future earthquakes
in the formation of slope failures. The result indicates a high probability of occurrences of landslides in the hilly regions
of the southeastern part of Hokkaido due to expected strong seismicity and earthquake intensities in these areas. On the other
hand, the low level of intensity in the north has given rise to low probability of landslide hazard. There are also places
in the center of the island and high intensity regions in the east where the probability of landslide hazard was influenced
by the contribution of the geological and slope maps. 相似文献
14.
为了弥补滑坡灾害危险性区划研究中影响因子和等级划分的不确定性,结合前人研究成果,依据斜坡几何形态、岩性、地质构造、河流侵蚀、土地利用类型、人类工程活动、降水条件等影响因子与研究区实际已发生的滑坡灾害数之间的关系,编制重庆市万州区滑坡灾害危险性评价标准,并基于GIS技术和信息量模型法,计算滑坡评价因子的信息量,就万州区滑坡危险性进行区划,最后基于乡镇行政区对该区滑坡危险性区划进行细化。结果表明：建设用地、坡高为90～200 m的地形、1 024～1 060 mm的年降雨量以及侏罗系中统上沙溪庙组岩层等因素对万州区滑坡发生影响较大;根据滑坡灾害危险性评价标准,万州区滑坡灾害被划分为高、中、低、极低等4个危险区;应用信息量模型法得到的万州区滑坡危险性区划与实际情况比较吻合;高危险区和中危险区面积分别为564.4 km2和848.6 km2,分别占万州区总面积的16.3%和24.5%,主要分布于长江干流及支流两岸的居民相对集中区以及公路干线地段;高危险和中危险乡镇主要分布在万州区经济较为发达的长江干流两岸,尤其是左岸的黄柏乡、太龙镇、天城镇、李河镇等以及万州主城区。 相似文献
15.
持续强降雨导致安丰水厂后山坡坡面变形开裂,形成了一个规模较大的滑坡,严重威胁水厂安全。采用钻探、物探（地质雷达和面波法）和地表工程地质测绘等综合手段,查明了滑坡发育机制,认为坡体土层松软,风化差异大,透水性强,坡面相对较陡是滑坡发生的内因,降雨是诱发滑坡最主要的外在因素。稳定性计算表明,该滑坡目前处于蠕滑极限平衡状态。应急排险及后期治理施工措施的成功,可为类似滑坡地质灾害的防治提供经验。 相似文献
16.
17.
18.
Delineation of landslide hazard areas on Penang Island, Malaysia, by using frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models 总被引：23，自引：5，他引：18
This paper summarizes findings of landslide hazard analysis on Penang Island, Malaysia, using frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models with the aid of GIS tools and remote sensing data. Landslide locations were identified and an inventory map was constructed by trained geomorphologists using photo-interpretation from archived aerial photographs supported by field surveys. A SPOT 5 satellite pan sharpened image acquired in January 2005 was used for land-cover classification supported by a topographic map. The above digitally processed images were subsequently combined in a GIS with ancillary data, for example topographical (slope, aspect, curvature, drainage), geological (litho types and lineaments), soil types, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and used to construct a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Three landslide hazard maps were constructed on the basis of landslide inventories and thematic layers, using frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Further, each thematic layer’s weight was determined by the back-propagation training method and landslide hazard indices were calculated using the trained back-propagation weights. The results of the analysis were verified and compared using the landslide location data and the accuracy observed was 86.41, 89.59, and 83.55% for frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models, respectively. On the basis of the higher percentages of landslide bodies predicted in very highly hazardous and highly hazardous zones, the results obtained by use of the logistic regression model were slightly more accurate than those from the other models used for landslide hazard analysis. The results from the neural network model suggest the effect of topographic slope is the highest and most important factor with weightage value (1.0), which is more than twice that of the other factors, followed by the NDVI (0.52), and then precipitation (0.42). Further, the results revealed that distance from lineament has the lowest weightage, with a value of 0. This shows that in the study area, fault lines and structural features do not contribute much to landslide triggering. 相似文献
19.
GIS支持的斜坡地质灾害空间预测系统框架设计 总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22
根据斜坡地质灾害研究特点和GIS软件的特点，提出了GIS支持下的斜坡地质灾害空间预测的技术路线，建立了具有不同功能的4个子系统组成的基于GIS的斜坡地质灾害空间预测系统；提出了数据库信息的标准和斜坡地质灾害区域空间预测评价指标体系；讨论了斜坡地质灾害预测及动态监测预测的建模、空间尺度和方法；并利用面向对象的高级编程语言研制开发了该系统，开发了与MAPGIS集成的常用的单体斜坡和区域斜坡稳定性预测模型及斜坡地质灾害工程地质信息非空间数据库和空间图形库。该系统将斜坡工程地质信息数据库与图形库、方法库紧密结合，将斜坡地质灾害区域预测与灾害点稳定性预测评价有机地联成一体。它既可以用作大范围的宏观决策，又可以为单体灾害防治提供必要资料；该系统具有可视性强、传输功能和复制功能强及信息可加工的特点，可达到充分利用资料信息，缩短模拟、评价周期和降低成本的目的；而且结果的可视化便于改善和提高管理部门的管理决策质量，为滑坡治理和城市规划建设提供快速服务。 相似文献
20.
福建南安市地质灾害特征及防治对策 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
黄毓明 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(2):122-124,121
根据福建省南安市地质灾害调查和区划工作成果，总结该区地质灾害类型主要有滑坡、崩塌和泥石流，尤以滑坡和崩塌的危害性最大。全市共发现地质灾害140处，其中滑坡72处(含土质滑坡67处)，崩塌65处(土质崩塌55处)，泥石流3处。南安市地质灾害具有分布广、规模小、突发性强、危害性大等特点，其控制因素：包括地形地貌、岩土体性质、降雨和人类工程活动等。南安市属于低山丘陵地貌，其中低山山地占全市面积的50％，丘陵、台地占25％；花岗岩、凝灰岩分布面积广，其残积层厚度较大，约5～17m，岩性为残积砾(砂)质粘性土，是致灾的主要土体。98％的地质灾害与降雨有直接的关系，当过程雨量达到100mm时，滑坡开始产生；过程雨量大于200mm时，滑坡普遍发生。直接与人类工程活动有关的地质灾害共134处，占地质灾害总数的95％，坡脚开挖是引发地质灾害的主要因素，占调查总数的84．4％。论文还提出了地质灾害防治的相应对策。 相似文献