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1.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):56-70
Oregon's governor has proposed a load-based cap and trade programme that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 10% below 1990 levels by 2020. A load-based programme is different from the source-based European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), as it regulates emissions sources, located outside the state, that serve Oregon's electricity load. This article describes the stakeholder process that developed the legislative proposal for the load-based cap. The Oregon Clean Energy Planning Model©, a modified capacity expansion model of annual load resource balances, is used to estimate programme costs. The net present value of the climate policy to Oregon ranges from a $518 million benefit to a $414 million cost under various load growth scenarios. Programme benefits are possible under low and medium load growth because the societal returns of energy efficiency exceed its cost over the life of the programme. CO2 allowance prices in 2017–2020 are estimated in the medium case at approximately $21 per tonne. Low energy efficiency deployment could raise allowance costs to $36, while an aggressive efficiency programme could reduce them to $13.50. Competition for Northwest renewable resources could increase allowance prices in final phase to $37, indicating the interdependence in programme design among state climate policies. 相似文献
2.
Stefano F. Verde Jordi Teixidó Claudio Marcantonini Xavier Labandeira 《Climate Policy》2019,19(4):439-452
This paper analyses the rules for free allocation in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The analysis draws on the empirical evidence emerging from two literature strands. One group of studies sheds light on the following questions: how efficient are free allocation rules in minimizing the risk of carbon leakage? Have they become more efficient over the trading periods? What are the technical limits to making them more efficient? Further: is firm behaviour affected by allowance allocation? Did specific provisions induce strategic behaviour with unintended effects? Studies from the second group estimate sectoral pass-through rates for the costs imposed by the EU ETS. Taking cost pass-through into account is necessary for properly targeting free allocation. The difficulty of accurately quantifying sectoral differences in cost pass-through ability, especially in manufacturing sectors (due to limited data availability and market heterogeneity), is the main hindrance to achieving further efficiency in allowance allocation. The new rules defined in the reform for Phase IV (2021–2030) nevertheless make some progress in this direction.Key policy insights
The difficulty of accurately quantifying sectoral differences in cost pass-through ability is the main hindrance to efficient free allocation in minimizing carbon leakage risk.
In Phase IV (2021–2030), carbon leakage risk will be assessed more accurately thanks to: a) carbon intensity and trade intensity considered together through a combined indicator; b) possible use of more disaggregated data, and c) possible consideration of complementary qualitative assessments of abatement potential, market characteristics and profit margins.
It is expected that benchmarked allocation introduced in Phase III (2013–2020) has induced additional emission abatement, but there is still a lack of empirical evidence.
3.
Controlling GHG emissions from the transportation sector through an ETS: institutional arrangements in Shenzhen,China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Many different approaches are needed to achieve reductions in GHG emissions from the transportation sector. Carbon emissions trading schemes (ETSs) are widely used in industry and are effective in reducing the overall social cost of emissions abatement. This article reports the development of a downstream ETS for the transportation sector and its application in Shenzhen, China. The ETS was devised as a mandatory cap-and-trade scheme and, as a first step, was applied to public transportation. An integrated cap was set on the total emissions from buses and taxis: an absolute cap for existing vehicles and a relative increment for new entrants. Allowances were allocated by grandfathering or benchmarking and a ‘reverse mechanism’ was established to encourage the transformation of urban transportation to a low-carbon system. Online fuel consumption monitoring was used to quantify the emissions from vehicles, and the operators were required to surrender enough allowances or credits to account for their verified annual emissions. The mechanisms for allowance trading and carbon offsets provided sufficient flexibility to make emissions abatement and the use of new-energy vehicles and environmentally friendly travel within Shenzhen's urban transportation system economically attractive.
Policy relevance
The transportation sector is becoming a major contributor to the growth in China's GHG emissions. Achieving large reductions in GHG emissions from the transportation sector is a great challenge and requires both technology and policy innovation. The tradable carbon permit is a popular concept in mitigating climate change, but the introduction of a cap-and-trade ETS into the transportation sector is a relatively innovative concept. Shenzhen has launched the first cap-and-trade ETS in a developing country and is currently exploring ways to mitigate carbon emissions by a downstream cap-and-trade ETS for the transportation sector. This article considers the main institutional arrangements and regulatory framework of Shenzhen's transportation carbon ETS. It not only refreshes the theoretical analysis and practical application of downstream cap-and-trade carbon emissions trading in urban transportation, but also provides developing countries with a cost-effective instrument to mitigate their rapid growth in traffic carbon emissions during urbanization. 相似文献
4.
The political economy of technology support: Making decisions about carbon capture and storage and low carbon energy technologies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This article reviews the political economy of government choice around technology support for the development and deployment of low carbon emission energy technologies, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). It is concerned with how governments should allocate limited economic resources across abatement alternatives. In particular, it explores two inter-related questions. First, should government support focus on a narrow range of options or be distributed across many potential alternatives? Second, what criteria should be considered when determining which specific technologies to support? It presents a simple economic model with experience curves for CCS and renewable energy technologies to explore the lowest cost alternatives for meeting an emission abatement objective. It then explores a variety of economic and political factors that must be considered when governments make decisions about technology support. 相似文献
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6.
China is now the world's biggest annual emitter of greenhouse gases with 7467 million tons (Mt) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2005, with agriculture accounting for 11% of this total. As elsewhere, agricultural emissions mitigation policy in China faces a range of challenges due to the biophysical complexity and heterogeneity of farming systems, as well as other socioeconomic barriers. Existing research has contributed to improving our understanding of the technical potential of mitigation measures in this sector (i.e. what works). But for policy purposes it is important to convert these measures into a feasible economic potential, which provides a perspective on whether agricultural emissions reduction (measures) are low cost relative to mitigation measures and overall potential offered by other sectors of the economy. We develop a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) representing the cost of mitigation measures applicable in addition to business-as-usual agricultural practices. The MACC results demonstrate that while the sector offers a maximum technical potential of 402 MtCO2e in 2020, a reduction of 135 MtCO2e is potentially available at zero or negative cost (i.e. a cost saving), and 176 MtCO2e (approximately 44% of the total) can be abated at a cost below a threshold carbon price ≤¥ 100 (approximately €12) per tCO2e. Our findings highlight the relative cost effectiveness of nitrogen fertilizer and manure best management practices, and animal breeding practices. We outline the assumptions underlying MACC construction and discuss some scientific, socioeconomic and institutional barriers to realizing the indicated levels of mitigation. 相似文献
7.
This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO2 (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO2-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO2-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it.
Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway;
A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030;
The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options;
Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs;
Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation.
8.
In this study, we aim to describe the background for design characteristics of emissions trading schemes (ETS) in developing and emerging economies, with a particular focus on the case of Korea. These countries may face unique hardships such as fierce opposition from industry sectors, the presence of a power imbalance between the Ministry of Environment (MOE) and ministries that are in charge of supporting output growth, and the absence or incomplete development of financial markets and auctioning mechanisms. To overcome these hardships, the Korean government legislated laws that defined timelines for every stage of ETS development, established a strategic governance architecture to make up the weak position of the MOE, offered strong market-stabilizing measures focused on maintaining the allowance price below a certain level, and provided support packages to make the low-carbon transition easy by compensating for losses caused by the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme (KETS). Such policy instruments that made adoption of KETS easier could be obstacles to making it efficient.Policy relevanceIn the process of adopting a cap-and-trade system, both a developing economy and an emerging economy may face unique hardships, such as strong opposition from industry sectors, the presence of a power imbalance between the Ministry of Environment (MOE) and ministries that are in charge of supporting output growth, and the absence or incomplete development of financial markets and auctioning mechanisms. To make up for the weak base of Korea’s ETS, the government legislated laws that defined timelines for every stage of the ETS development, established a strategic governance architecture to make up for the weak position of the MOE, offered strong market-stabilizing measures focused on maintaining the allowance price below a certain level, and provided support packages to make the low-carbon transition easy by compensating for losses caused by the Korea’s ETS. Korea’s experiences can be shared with other developing economies that are considering adoption of a cap-and-trade scheme. 相似文献
9.
China plans to launch its nationwide Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2017. Uncertainty in China’s future economic growth rate and its effect on underlying emissions may need to be addressed to ensure stability of the scheme. This article investigates an ex-post cap adjustment mechanism for China’s ETS. An applicable rule for indexation of emissions targets to gross domestic product (GDP) adjustment is presented. Such an ex-post optimal emissions intensity target is estimated in an empirical simulation of the Hubei ETS, a large pilot scheme in a fast-growing Chinese province. And its implications for China’s planned national ETS have been discussed. The article finds that by correcting the emissions cap for the difference between expected and realized GDP, the ex-post adjustment can minimize the abatement costs. It can also limit the influence of uncertainties, as it minimizes the standard deviation of realized abatement, abatement cost, and allowance price for a given expected emissions reduction. In addition, with a limited number of parameters requiring estimation, the ex-post cap adjustment mechanism is feasible. It is consistent with the anticipated design of China’s planned national ETS and could be used alongside other design options such as price corridors.
POLICY RELEVANCE
It will be important for the stability of China’s planned national ETS to address uncertainty about future GDP growth which can significantly affect underlying emissions growth. This paper proposes a specific solution, namely an ex-post cap adjustment mechanism for the ETS cap. This method provides flexibility with transparent rules, would be consistent with China’s overall ETS policy design, and could be implemented in practice as the required parameters can be readily estimated. 相似文献
10.
Kyung-Min Nam Caleb J. Waugh Sergey Paltsev John M. Reilly Valerie J. Karplus 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1648-1661
Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, China proposes to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO2 emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Plan, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China's SO2 and NOx emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the near term pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately. 相似文献
11.
碳税和碳交易机制是控制温室气体排放的环境管理工具,对工业行业的减排成本造成不同的影响。以污染控制政策的稳态总期望社会成本函数为基础构建碳减排成本函数,比较碳税和碳交易机制下水泥行业减排成本,发现影响两种环境管理工具成本的要素。以广东和山东水泥行业的实证数据进行模拟分析,得到如下结论：当碳价和碳税税率差距不大时,由于碳交易机制需要较高的建设成本,碳税更具成本优势;短期内,由于减排技术投入成本较高,与强制性的行政管理手段相比,碳交易机制更具成本效益;碳价、碳税税率、最佳可获得技术的价格、企业预期、碳交易建设与管理成本都会影响碳交易机制和碳税在减排成本上的比较优势。建议设计互补型碳排放管理政策组合,使碳税和碳交易机制发挥各自的制度优势。 相似文献
12.
This paper evaluated the impacts of climate change mitigation technology options on CO2 emission reductions and the effects of model representations regarding renewable intermittency on the assessment of reduction by using a world energy systems model. First, different diffusion scenarios for carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, and wind power and solar PV are selected from EMF27 scenarios to analyze their impacts on CO2 emission reductions. These technologies are important for reducing CO2 intensity of electricity, and the impacts of their diffusion levels on mitigation costs are significant, according to the analyses. Availability of CCS in particular, among the three kinds of technologies, has a large impact on the marginal CO2 abatement cost. In order to analyze effects of model representations regarding renewables intermittency, four different representations are assumed within the model. A simplistic model representation that does not take into consideration the intermittency of wind power and solar PV evaluates larger contributions of the energy sources than those evaluated by a model representation that takes intermittency into consideration. Appropriate consideration of renewables intermittency within global energy systems models will be important for realistic evaluations of climate change mitigation scenarios. 相似文献
13.
Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dominic Moran Michael MacLeod Eileen Wall Vera Eory Alistair McVittie Andrew Barnes R. M. Rees Cairistiona F. E. Topp Guillaume Pajot Robin Matthews Pete Smith Andrew Moxey 《Climatic change》2011,105(3-4):529-553
This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO2e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO2e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (£34 (tCO2e)???1). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture. 相似文献
14.
基于国际碳市场建设的初始决策环境,从政治诉求、决策环境、经济基础、市场根基等4个维度的32个子指标构建了碳市场建立背景与条件指标体系,据此深入挖掘了欧盟碳排放权交易体系(EU ETS)、美国区域温室气体减排行动(RGGI)、美国西部行动倡议(WCI)等国际典型碳市场建立的背景与基础条件,并归纳出各国建立不同类型碳市场的必要条件,进而判断中国建立各类碳市场所具备的条件和不足之处。研究发现：跨界联盟型碳市场建立通常具备经济联系紧密、单个地区减排成本过高和地理位置临近等3个要点;国家型碳市场建立通常考虑到了国家强制减排责任、能源结构转型需求强烈和稳固的国家立法保障等方面;地区型碳市场的建立需满足地区减排诉求强烈与国家层面排放权立法缺失等条件;行业型碳市场建立的基础条件则包括温室气体排放集中度高、行业竞争力保护、重点行业排放需求增长和行业排放数据基础稳固等4个特征。当前,中国碳市场应重点考虑行业型与跨界联盟型碳市场并行的建设模式,进一步完善碳市场监管法律体系,加快各省市排放数据清单制作,加强地方碳市场能力建设培训,尽快完善国家型碳市场建立的基本条件,进而实现温室气体减排与产业结构升级的双重目标。 相似文献
15.
It is physically possible to capture CO2 directly from the air and immobilize it in geological structures. Air capture differs from conventional mitigation in three key aspects. First, it removes emissions from any part of the economy with equal ease or difficulty, so its cost provides an absolute cap on the cost of mitigation. Second, it permits reduction in concentrations faster than the natural carbon cycle: the effects of irreversibility are thus partly alleviated. Third, because it is weakly coupled to existing energy infrastructure, air capture may offer stronger economies of scale and smaller adjustment costs than the more conventional mitigation technologies. We assess the ultimate physical limits on the amount of energy and land required for air capture and describe two systems that might achieve air capture at prices under 200 and 500 $/tC using current technology. Like geoengineering, air capture limits the cost of a worst-case climate scenario. In an optimal sequential decision framework with uncertainty, existence of air capture decreases the need for near-term precautionary abatement. The long-term effect is the opposite; assuming that marginal costs of mitigation decrease with time while marginal climate change damages increase, then air capture increases long-run abatement. Air capture produces an environmental Kuznets curve, in which concentrations are returned to preindustrial levels. 相似文献
16.
There is increasing interest in protecting, restoring and creating ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems (BCE; mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) to sequester atmospheric CO2-C and thereby contribute to climate change mitigation. While a growing number of countries aspire to report greenhouse gas emission and carbon sequestration changes from these ecosystems under voluntary international reporting requirements, few countries have domestic policy frameworks that specifically support the quantification and financing of carbon emission abatement through BCE management.Australia, as home to approximately 5–11% of global blue carbon stocks, has a substantial interest in the development of blue carbon policy. Here we assess the potential inclusion of blue carbon within Australia's Emissions Reduction Fund, emphasizing issues and approaches that have global relevance. We used a participatory workshop of scientific experts and carbon industry stakeholders to identify blue carbon management actions that would meet the requirements of the Fund. In total, twelve actions were assessed for their greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and the ability to measure abatement reliably, using a combination of available data and qualitative and quantitative methods, including expert knowledge.We identify and discuss the five most relevant and promising activities, encompassing the protection, restoration and creation of mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses. On a per area basis, mean abatement intensity of organic carbon (Corg) was highest for the (re)introduction of tidal flow resulting in establishment of mangrove (13–15 Mg Corg ha−1 yr−1) and tidal marsh (6–8 Mg Corg ha−1 yr−1), followed by land use planning for sea-level rise for the creation of new mangrove habitat (8 Mg Corg ha−1 yr−1). The avoided disturbance of existing mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses has the twofold benefit of avoiding remineralisation of existing stocks, plus the future annual abatement associated with the net sequestration of atmospheric CO2-C as Corg with the continued functioning of these BCE. Our approach offers a template that uses best available information to identify options for carbon abatement through management of coastal landscapes, and details current knowledge gaps and important technical aspects that need to be considered for implementation in carbon crediting schemes. 相似文献
17.
China is by far the largest host of projects implemented under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, earlier studies shed little light on the determinants of the distribution of CDM projects across Chinese provinces. Given China's large size and political-economic diversity, this dearth of research is troubling. We provide an empirical analysis of 2097 CDM projects in 30 Chinese provinces, 2004–2009. We find that high electricity consumption, low per capita income, and a lack of foreign direct investment are all associated with CDM project implementation. The findings are particularly strong for electricity and foreign direct investment. These findings are consistent with the economic theory of CDM project implementation. Project developers focus on minimizing the cost of carbon abatement. Moreover, they suggest that the CDM can, despite its limitations, contribute to reducing economic inequality and uneven development in China. 相似文献
18.
欧盟自1997年起就如何通过市场和行政手段“双轮驱动”控制碳排放总量进行不断探索,并逐步建立了较为成熟的碳排放交易体系及减排责任分担机制,已经取得了良好的减排效果。文中梳理分析《责任分担条例》修正案中关于成员国减排目标更新的内容、目标分配的原则与方法、灵活性机制,归纳了欧盟采用行政手段控制碳排放交易系统未涉及部门的温室气体排放的经验,并对中国如何构建充分考虑市场手段和行政手段的CO2排放总量控制制度提出政策建议。 相似文献
19.
Oskar Lecuyer 《Climate Policy》2019,19(8):1002-1018
We study the interactions between a CO2 emissions trading system (ETS) and renewable energy subsidies under uncertainty over electricity demand and energy costs. We develop an analytical model and a numerical model applied to the European Union electricity market in which renewable energy subsidies are justified only by CO2 abatement. We confirm that in this context, when uncertainty is small, renewable energy subsidies are not welfare-improving, but we show that when uncertainty is large enough, these subsidies increase expected welfare because they provide CO2 abatement even in the case of over-allocation, i.e. when the cap is higher than the emissions which would have occurred without the ETS. The source of uncertainty is important when comparing the various types of renewable energy subsidies. Under uncertainty over electricity demand, renewable energy costs or gas prices, a feed-in tariff brings higher expected welfare than a feed-in premium because it provides a higher subsidy when it is actually needed i.e. when the electricity price is low. Under uncertainty over coal prices, the opposite result holds true.
Key policy insights
Due to the possibility of over-allocation in an ETS, subsidies to renewable energies can increase expected welfare, even when climate change mitigation is the only benefit from renewables taken into account.
In most cases studied, a feed-in tariff brings a higher expected welfare than a feed-in premium.
The European Commission guidelines on State aid for energy, which incentivize member States to replace feed-in tariffs by feed-in premiums, should be reconsidered based on these results.