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1.
Based on the classification provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the damage level of buildings impacted by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami can be separated into six levels (from minor damage to washed away). The objective of this paper is to identify the significant predictor variables and the direction of their potential relationship to the damage level in order to create a predicting formula for damage level. This study used the detailed data of damaged buildings in Ishinomaki city, Miyagi prefecture, Japan, collected by MLIT. The explanatory variables tested included the inundation depth, number of floors, structural material, and function of the building. Ordinal regression was applied to model the relationship between the ordinal outcome variable (damage level) and the predictors. The findings indicated that inundation depth, structural material, and function of building were significantly associated with the damage level. In addition to this new type of model, this research provides a valuable insight into the relative influence of different factors on building damage and suggestions that may help to revise the classification of current standards. This study can contribute to academic tsunami research by assessing the contribution of different variables to the observed damage using new approaches based on statistical analysis and regression. Moreover, practical applications of these results include understanding of the predominant factors driving tsunami damage to structures, implementation of the relevant variables into the proposed, or alternative model in order to improve current damage predictions by taking into account not only inundation depth, but also variables such as structural material and function of building.  相似文献   

2.
Community-scale estimates of building damage and economic loss are modeled for Seaside, Oregon, for Cascadia subduction zone events ranging from 8.7 to 9.3 MW with corresponding slip distances of 3–25 m considering only the effects of the tsunami. Numerical simulations are obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s method of splitting tsunami model which includes a source model, subsidence, and calculations of the propagation and inundation flow characteristics. The damage estimates are based on fragility curves from the literature which relate flow depth with probability of damage for two different structural materials of buildings. Calculations are performed at the parcel level for the inundation hazard without including damage caused by the earthquake itself. Calculations show that the severity of building damage in Seaside is sensitive to the magnitude of the event or degree of slip because the majority of the city is located on low-lying coastal land within the estimated inundation zone. For the events modeled, the percentage of building within the inundation zone ranges from 9 to 88 %, with average direct economic losses ranging from $2 million to $1.2 billion.  相似文献   

3.
Tsunamis are destructive natural phenomena which cause extensive damage to the built environment, affecting the livelihoods and economy of the impacted nations. This has been demonstrated by the tragic events of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, or the Great East Japan tsunami in 2011. Following such events, a few studies have attempted to assess the fragility of the existing building inventory by constructing empirical stochastic functions, which relate the damage to a measure of tsunami intensity. However, these studies typically fit a linear statistical model to the available damage data, which are aggregated in bins of similar levels of tsunami intensity. This procedure, however, cannot deal well with aggregated data, low and high damage probabilities, nor does it result in the most realistic representation of the tsunami-induced damage. Deviating from this trend, the present study adopts the more realistic generalised linear models which address the aforementioned disadvantages. The proposed models are fitted to the damage database, containing 178,448 buildings surveyed in the aftermath of the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism in Japan. In line with the results obtained in previous studies, the fragility curves show that wooden buildings (the dominant construction type in Japan) are the least resistant against tsunami loading. The diagnostics show that taking into account both the building’s construction type and the tsunami flow depth is crucial to the quality of the damage estimation and that these two variables do not act independently. In addition, the diagnostics reveal that tsunami flow depth estimates low levels of damage reasonably well; however, it is not the most representative measure of intensity of the tsunami for high damage states (especially structural damage). Further research using disaggregated damage data and additional explanatory variables is required in order to obtain reliable model estimations of building damage probability.  相似文献   

4.
The tsunami run-up, inundation and damage pattern observed along the coast of Tamilnadu (India) during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 is documented in this paper. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries, bordering the Indian Ocean. Along the coast of Indian mainland, the damage was caused by the tsunami only. Largest tsunami run-up and inundation was observed along the coast of Nagapattinam district and was about 10–12 m and 3.0 km, respectively. The measured inundation data were strongly scattered in direct relationship to the morphology of the seashore and the tsunami run-up. Lowest tsunami run-up and inundation was measured along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram districts of Tamilnadu in the Palk Strait. The presence of shadow of Sri Lanka, the interferences of direct/receded waves with the reflected waves from Sri Lanka and Maldive Islands and variation in the width of continental shelf were the main cause of large variation in tsunami run-up along the coast of Tamilnadu.  相似文献   

5.
Sugimoto  T.  Murakami  H.  Kozuki  Y.  Nishikawa  K.  Shimada  T. 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):587-602
This study presents a tsunami human damage prediction method employing numerical calculation and GIS (Geographical Information System) for Usa town, Tosa City, Shikoku Island, Japan. Sometime near the end of the first half of the twenty-first century, a huge earthquake is predicted to occur along the Nankai trough and costal areas facing the Pacific ocean of Shikoku Island. Much damage due to the resultant tsunamis will be caused, therefore, it is necessary to predict the extent of human damage for every town in high-risk areas.The number of tsunami victims was estimated by population in areas of maximum inundation. The number of deaths as a result of tsunami was estimated by a method which employed accumulated death toll of every area in terms of time and space, taking into account consideration of time necessary to begin to seek refuge after an earthquake, tsunami inundation depth on land, flow velocity and evacuation speed. As a result of this study a rapid decrease in death toll by early evacuation was shown quantitatively for the first time.Thus, with the method presented here, it is possible to estimate the extent of tsunami human damage on coastal regions, and may be useful as a tsunami human damage countermeasure.  相似文献   

6.
Nagapattinam, in the east coast of India, was severely affected during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. The tsunami caused heavy damage to life and property, and the death toll was about 3,378 in Nagapattinam taluk. Certain villages along the coast witnessed large inundation while adjacent villages were protected from the fury of the tsunami waves. This study was carried out to examine the underlying causes for the vulnerability along Nagapattinam coast with the help of field observations, remote sensing, and geographical information system as tools. Coastal areas with high sand dunes have been protected from tsunami, and areas adjacent to backwaters were inundated. Realtime Kinematic Global Positioning System and high-resolution satellite data were used to map the topographic information and maximum extent of inundation. Thematic maps on land use, land cover, and coastal geomorphology were generated using remote sensing and field data. Using field data as the primary source of information, tsunami hazard maps have been generated for Nagapattinam.  相似文献   

7.
Method to determine the locations of tsunami vertical evacuation shelters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great Tohoku Japan earthquake and tsunami focused a great deal of the world??s attention on the effect of tsunamis on buildings and infrastructure. When a tsunami impacts structures in a coastal community, the structures are often not strong enough to withstand the forces and may collapse. Therefore, to maximize the survival probability, people evacuate to higher ground or move outside the inundation zone. However, this is not always possible because of short warning times for near-field tsunamis. Thus, sheltering-in-place or ??sheltering-near-place?? using vertical evacuation should be considered as an alternative approach to lateral evacuation from a tsunami inundation zone. This paper presents the method and results of a study to develop and demonstrate a methodology that applied genetic optimization to determine optimal tsunami shelter locations with the goal of reducing evacuation time, thereby maximizing the probability of survival for the population in a coastal community. The City of Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA, was used as an illustrative example. Several cases were investigated ranging from a single shelter to multiple shelters with locations of high elevation already in place near the city. The method can provide decision-support for the determination of locations for tsunami vertical evacuation shelters. The optimum location of the shelter(s), which was found to vary depending on the number of shelters considered, can reduce the evacuation time significantly, thereby reducing the number of fatalities and increasing the safety of a community.  相似文献   

8.
The tsunami inundation flows on Banda Aceh, Indonesia reached 5 km inland during the December 26, 2004, event and devastated most of the houses, buildings, and infrastructure along the coast and killed more than 167,000 people. The overland flows from the northwest coast and the west coast collided at Lampisang village approximately 3.7 km from Ulee Lheue (northwest coast) and 6.8 km from Lhok Nga (west coast) as reported by survivors. Inundation modeling based on the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations reproduces the inundation pattern and demonstrates a colliding of the overland flows. The model suggests that wave characteristics on the northwest coast of Banda Aceh were different from those on the waves that impacted upon the west coast. The areas, which experienced higher inundation levels, did not always experience greatest overland flow speeds, and the damage areas mostly coincide with the flow speed distribution rather than the runup and inundation depth.  相似文献   

9.
Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world “Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about 300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s.  相似文献   

10.
Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of MW 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.  相似文献   

11.
The Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004 caused inundation of seawater along the Northern coast of Tamil Nadu, India, resulting in loss of 8,000 people with extensive damage to properties. The paper describes the inundation of seawater in two northern districts, namely Kancheepuram and Villupuram districts, which showed distinct patterns of inundation of seawater and run-up levels due to variations in geomorphic features. TUNAMI N2 model was used to predict the seawater inundation for earthquakes occurred in 1881 at Car Nicobar, Sumatra 2004 and a worst-case scenario. The coastal areas with beaches having gentle slope showed more inundation compared with coastal areas having varied slope and habited by sand dunes and coastal vegetation. Appreciable inundation of seawater with tsunami simulated for 1881 Car Nicobar indicated that proximity to the source plays a major role besides earthquake parameters in causing inundation. The worst-case scenario generated from subduction zone of Car Nicobar using Sumatra 2004 earthquake parameters revealed extreme vulnerability of coasts of both the districts to giant tsunamis.  相似文献   

12.
Geological evidence of severe tsunami inundation has been discovered in northern Japan. In the dune fields of Shimokita, in northernmost Tohoku, we have found two distinctive sand layers that are tsunami deposits. The run-up height of >20 m and inland inundation of at least 1.4 km are notably larger than any known historical case in Japan. The tsunami-genic earthquake that resulted in these deposits is thought to have taken place in the Kuril Forearc-Trench system nearly 700 years ago. The recurrence interval of major tsunamis originating in the Kuril subduction zone is about 400 years. Given that the most recent unusually large earthquake took place in AD 1611 (corresponding to the Keicho earthquake tsunami), the findings presented here increase the potential and hazard for an outsized tsunami striking the Pacific coast of northern Japan.  相似文献   

13.
Classifying inundation limits in SE coast of India: application of GIS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A study on the possible inundation limit in SE coast of India was carried out using various physical, geological and satellite imageries. The coastal inundation hazard map was prepared for this particular region as it was affected by many cyclones, flooding, storm surge and tsunami waves during the last six decades. The results were generated using various satellite data (IRS-P6 LISS3; LANDSAT ETM; LANDSAT-5 ETM; LANDSAT MSS) and digital elevation models (ASTER GLOBAL DEM), and a coastal vulnerability index was generated for the entire coastal stretch of Nagapattinam region in SE coast of India. The coastal area which will be submerged totally due to a 1–5 m rise in water level due to any major natural disaster (tsunami or cyclone) indicates that 56–320 km2 will be submerged in this particular region. The results suggest that nearly 7 towns and 69 villages with 667,477 people will be affected and indicate that proper planning needs to be done for future development.  相似文献   

14.
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had a significant impact on the Tamil Nadu coast in India. In this paper, a range of field survey data collected by different survey teams available in literature have been analyzed and compiled to serve as a basis for validation of numerical tsunami simulations. The individual field surveys reveal a significant scatter in the run-up data between the different teams, which point out that the uncertainty in these data must be taken into account when using them for validation. The inundation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated for the coastlines of Chennai and Nagapattinam based on high-resolution topography. Different spatially uniform Manning friction as well as heterogeneous friction maps is used. Overall, the simulation results showed a good agreement with the field observations, but there are also some observed spatial variability in the goodness of the fit between the data and simulations. In some areas, clear discrepancies are found. The results obtained using detailed land use maps including spatially variable friction are not significantly more accurate than those employing spatially constant values. For most areas, parameters indicating relatively low friction provided best match with the observations. This may also suggest that the inundation is often strongly governed by local variations in topography.  相似文献   

15.
Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.  相似文献   

16.
The 2004 tsunami that struck the Sumatra coast gave a warning sign to Malaysia that it is no longer regarded as safe from a future tsunami attack. Since the event, the Malaysian Government has formulated its plan of action by developing an integrated tsunami vulnerability assessment technique to determine the vulnerability levels of each sector along the 520-km-long coastline of the north-west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The scope of assessment is focused on the vulnerability of the physical characteristics of the coastal area, and the vulnerability of the built environment in the area that includes building structures and infrastructures. The assessment was conducted in three distinct stages which stretched across from a macro-scale assessment to several local-scale and finally a micro-scale assessment. On a macro-scale assessment, Tsunami Impact Classification Maps were constructed based on the results of the tsunami propagation modelling of the various tsunami source scenarios. At this stage, highly impacted areas were selected for an assessment of the local hazards in the form of local flood maps based on the inundation modelling output. Tsunami heights and flood depths obtained from these maps were then used to produce the Tsunami Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) maps. These maps recognize sectors within the selected areas that are highly vulnerable to a maximum tsunami run-up and flood event. The final stage is the development of the Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) maps, which may qualitatively and quantitatively capture the physical and economic resources that are in the tsunami inundation zone during the worst-case scenario event. The results of the assessment in the form of GIS-based Tsunami-prone Vulnerability Index (PVI and SVI) maps are able to differentiate between the various levels of vulnerability, based on the tsunami height and inundation, the various levels of impact severity towards existing building structures, property and land use, and also indicate the resources and human settlements within the study area. Most importantly, the maps could help planners to establish a zoning scheme for potential coastline development based on its sensitivity to tsunami. As a result, some recommendations on evacuation routes and tsunami shelters in the potentially affected areas were also proposed to the Government as a tool for relief agencies to plan for safe evacuation.  相似文献   

17.
This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.  相似文献   

18.
The Storegga tsunami, dated in Norway to 8150±30 cal. years BP, hit many countries bordering the North Sea. Run-ups of >30 m occurred and 1000s of kilometres of coast were impacted. Whilst recent modelling successfully generated a tsunami wave train, the wave heights and velocities, it under-estimated wave run-ups. Work presented here used luminescence to directly date the Storegga tsunami deposits at the type site of Maryton, Aberdeenshire in Scotland. It also undertook sedimentological characterization to establish provenance, and number and relative power of the tsunami waves. Tsunami model refinement used this to better understand coastal inundation. Luminescence ages successfully date Scottish Storegga tsunami deposits to 8100±250 years. Sedimentology showed that at Montrose, three tsunami waves came from the northeast or east, over-ran pre-existing marine sands and weathered igneous bedrock on the coastal plain. Incorporation of an inundation model predicts well a tsunami impacting on the Montrose Basin in terms of replicate direction and sediment size. However, under-estimation of run-up persisted requiring further consideration of palaeotopography and palaeo-near-shore bathymetry for it to agree with sedimentary evidence. Future model evolution incorporating this will be better able to inform on the hazard risk and potential impacts for future high-magnitude submarine generated tsunami events.  相似文献   

19.
In a conventional approach, the mechanical behaviour of a structure subjected to seismic or blast waves is treated separately from its surroundings, and in many cases, the dynamic coupling effect between multiple structures and the waves propagating in the ground is disregarded. However, if many structures are built densely in a developed urban area, this dynamic interaction may not become negligible. The first purpose of this contribution is to briefly show the effect of multiple interactions between waves and surface buildings in a town. The analysis is based on a recently developed, fully coupled, rigorous mathematical study, and for simplicity, each building in the town is represented by a rigid foundation, a mass at the top and an elastic spring that connects the foundation and mass. The buildings stand at regular spatial intervals on a linear elastic half-space and are subjected to two-dimensional anti-plane vibrations. It is found that the buildings in this model significantly interact with each other through the elastic ground, and the resonant (eigen) frequencies of the collective system (buildings or town) become lower than that of a single building with the same rigid foundation. This phenomenon may be called the “town effect” or “city effect.” Then, second, it is shown that the actual, unique structural damage pattern caused by the 1976 Friuli, Italy, earthquake may better be explained by this “town effect,” rather than by investigating the seismic performance of each damaged building individually. The results suggest that it may also be possible to evaluate the physical characteristics of incident seismic/blast waves “inversely” from the damage patterns induced to structures by the waves.  相似文献   

20.
Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

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