共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 812 毫秒
1.
K. J. Li Q. X. Li P. X. Gao J. Mu H. D. Chen T. W. Su 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2007,28(2-3):147-156
Long-term variation in the distribution of the solar filaments observed at the Observatorie de Paris, Section de Meudon from
March 1919 to December 1989 is presented to compare with sunspot cycle and to study the periodicity in the filament activity,
namely the periods of the coronal activity with the Morlet wavelet used. It is inferred that the activity cycle of solar filaments
should have the same cycle length as sunspot cycle, but the cycle behavior of solar filaments is globally similar in profile
with, but different in detail from, that of sunspot cycles. The amplitude of solar magnetic activity should not keep in phase
with the complexity of solar magnetic activity. The possible periods in the filament activity are about 10.44 and 19.20 years.
The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 10.44 years is statistically significant during the whole consideration time.
The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 19.20 years is under the 95% confidence spectrum during the whole consideration
time, but over the mean red-noise spectrum of α = 0.72 before approximate Carrington rotation number 1500, and after that the filament activity does not statistically show
the period. Wavelet reconstruction indicates that the early data of the filament archive (in and before cycle 16) are more
noiseful than the later (in and after cycle 17). 相似文献
2.
3.
1 ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅｉｓｕｓｕａｌｌｙｄｅｓｃｒｉｂｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓ.Ａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｏｆｈｉｓ ｔｏｒｉｃａｌｄａｔａｏｎｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓｈａｖｅｒｅｖｅａｌｅｄａｗｅａｌｔｈｏｆｉｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅ (ＨｏｎｇＱｉｎｆａｎｇ 1 990 ,1 994;ＺｈｏｎｇＳｈｕｈｕａ 1 991 ,1 995 ) .Ｔｈｅｓｏ ｃａｌｌｅｄ 1 1 ｙｅａｒｐｅ ｒｉｏ… 相似文献
4.
R. Brajša H. Wöhl D. Ruždjak B. Vršnak G. Verbanac L. Svalgaard J.-F. Hochedez 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2007,328(10):1013-1015
The interaction between differential rotation and magnetic fields in the solar convection zone was recently modelled by Brun (2004). One consequence of that model is that the Maxwell stresses can oppose the Reynolds stresses, and thus contribute to the transport of the angular momentum towards the solar poles, leading to a reduced differential rotation. So, when magnetic fields are weaker, a more pronounced differential rotation can be expected, yielding a higher rotation velocity at low latitudes taken on the average. This hypothesis is consistent with the behaviour of the solar rotation during the Maunder minimum. In this work we search for similar signatures of the relationship between the solar activity and rotation determined tracing sunspot groups and coronal bright points. We use the extended Greenwich data set (1878–1981) and a series of full-disc solar images taken at 28.4 nm with the EIT instrument on the SOHO spacecraft (1998–2000). We investigate the dependence of the solar rotation on the solar activity (described by the relative sunspot number) and the interplanetary magnetic field (calculated from the interdiurnal variability index). Possible rotational signatures of two weak solar activity cycles at the beginning of the 20th century (Gleissberg minimum) are discussed. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
5.
Juan Zhao Yan-Ben Han 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2008,8(4)
We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7. 相似文献
6.
Li Kejun Gu Xiaoma Xiang Fuyuan Liu Xiaohua Chen Xuekun 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,317(4):897-901
Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle. 相似文献
7.
Can Asymmetry of Solar Activity be Extended into Extended Cycle？ 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
With the use of the Royal Greenwich Observatory data set of sunspot groups,an attempt is made to examine the north-south asymmetry of solar activity in the “extended” solar cycles. It is inferred that the asymmetry established for individual solar cycles does not extend to the “extended” cycles. 相似文献
8.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
9.
Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results. 相似文献
10.
Continuous wavelet transform and cross‐wavelet transform have been used to investigate the phase periodicity and synchrony of the monthly mean Wolf (Rz) and group (Rg) sunspot numbers during the period of June 1795 to December 1995. The Schwabe cycle is the only one common period in Rg and Rz, but it is not well‐defined in case of cycles 5–7 of Rg and in case of cycles 5 and 6 of Rz. In fact, the Schwabe period is slightly different in Rg and Rz before cycle 12, but from cycle 12 onwards it is almost the same for the two time series. Asynchrony of the two time series is more obviously seen in cycles 5 and 6 than in the following cycles, and usually more obviously seen around the maximum time of a cycle than during the rest of the cycle. Rg is found to fit Rz better in both amplitudes and peak epoch during the minimum time time of a solar cycle than during the maximum time of the cycle, which should be caused by their different definition, and around the maximum time of a cycle, Rg is usually less than Rz. Asynchrony of Rg and Rz should somewhat agree with different sunspot cycle characteristics exhibited by themselves (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
11.
The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012. 相似文献
12.
R. Arlt 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2009,330(4):311-316
This article reports on solar observations by J.A. Hamilton and W. Gimingham at Armagh Observatory made in 1795–1797. A number of sunspot positions were obtained from the original observing notes, mostly from micrometer measurements. The period is particularly interesting for the understanding of the onset of the Dalton minimum and a possible minor cycle between the Cycles 4 and 5. For the same period, sunspot positions recorded by Staudacher were measured and published in an earlier paper (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
13.
QIAN Ya-wen FENG Song DENG Lin-hua LIU Wei-hang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(3):365-374
The study on the 1.3–1.7 yr period of the solar and geomagnetic activities is very important for understanding the possible physical processes in the solar-terrestrial coupling system. The sunspot is the most prominent magnetic field structure in the solar photosphere, and the Ap index is an important indicator for the global geomagnetic activity level. The 1.3–1.7 yr period for the sunspot number and the geomagnetic Ap index is obtained by the synchro-squeezing wavelet transform, and the phase relationship between them is studied by the cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The 1.3–1.7 yr period of the geomagnetic Ap index and sunspot number exhibits an intermittent evolutionary characteristics, and changes continuously with the time; (2) the geomagnetic Ap index has a higher periodic component in the odd solar cycles than the neighboring even solar cycles, which is characterized by fluctuations; (3) the phase relationship between the geomagnetic Ap index and the sunspot number is not always invariant, in most cases the geomagnetic Ap index lags behind the sunspot number, except in the 18th and 22th solar cycles. 相似文献
14.
太阳和地磁活动中的1.3–1.7 yr周期研究对于理解日地空间耦合系统中可能发生的物理过程十分重要.黑子是太阳光球层上最突出的磁场结构, Ap指数则是表征全球地磁活动水平的重要指标.使用同步压缩小波变换得到太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7yr周期,并用互相关方法分析研究它们之间的相位关系.结果如下:(1)太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7 yr周期呈现间歇性的演化特征,且随着时间的变化而不断变化;(2)地磁Ap指数在奇数活动周比相邻的偶数活动周的周期分量更高,表现出上下波动的变化特性;(3)地磁Ap指数和太阳黑子数的相位关系不是一成不变的,在大多数情况下地磁Ap指数滞后太阳黑子数,仅在第18和第22活动周黑子数在相位上滞后. 相似文献
15.
We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle.Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012. 相似文献
16.
K. M. Hiremath 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,314(1-3):45-49
In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755–1996), long-term
amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles
and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar
cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during
the period 2008.57±0.17 (i.e., around May–September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period
and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles.
Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and
amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030–2042 AD), 27 (2042–2054 AD), 34
(2118–2127 AD), 37 (2152–2163 AD) and 38 (2163–2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun
might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089–2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar
cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35. 相似文献
17.
Jie Jiang Piyali Chatterjee Arnab Rai Choudhuri 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,381(4):1527-1542
Although systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field exist only from mid-1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field at a sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, although the strength of the cycle is not correlated well with the polar field produced at its end. This suggests that the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from decaying sunspots involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process must be reasonably ordered and deterministic. Only if the magnetic diffusivity within the convection zone is assumed to be high (of order 1012 cm2 s−1 ), we can explain the correlation between the polar field at a minimum and the next cycle. We give several independent arguments that the diffusivity must be of this order. In a dynamo model with diffusivity like this, the poloidal field generated at the mid-latitudes is advected toward the poles by the meridional circulation and simultaneously diffuses towards the tachocline, where the toroidal field for the next cycle is produced. To model actual solar cycles with a dynamo model having such high diffusivity, we have to feed the observational data of the poloidal field at the minimum into the theoretical model. We develop a method of doing this in a systematic way. Our model predicts that cycle 24 will be a very weak cycle. Hemispheric asymmetry of solar activity is also calculated with our model and compared with observational data. 相似文献
18.
R. Arlt 《Solar physics》2008,247(2):399-410
Original drawings by J.C. Staudacher made in the period of 1749 – 1796 were digitized. The drawings provide information about
the size of the sunspots and are therefore useful for analyses sensitive to sunspot area rather than Wolf numbers. The total
sunspot area as a function of time is shown for the observing period. The sunspot areas measured do not support the proposition
of a weak, “lost” cycle between cycles 4 and 5. We also evaluate the usefulness of the drawings for the determination of sunspot
positions for future studies. 相似文献
19.
M. I. Pishkalo 《Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies》2013,29(1):37-43
Correlations are investigated between the pattern of solar activity described by the smoothed monthly relative sunspot numbers (Wolf numbers) near the minimum of a solar cycle and the cycle amplitude. The closest correlation is found between the amplitude of a solar cycle and the sum of the decrease in activity over two years prior to the cycle minimum and the increase in activity over two years after the minimum; the correlation coefficient between these parameters is 0.92. This parameter is used as a precursor to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 24, which is expected to reach its maximum amplitude (85 ± 12) in February 2014. Based on the correlations between the mean parameters of solar cycles, cycle 24 is expected to last for approximately 11.3 years and the minimum of the next cycle 25 is predicted for May 2020. 相似文献
20.
The relation of the solar cycle period and its amplitude is a complex problem as there is no direct correlation between these two quantities. Nevertheless, the period of the cycle is of important influence to the Earth's climate, which has been noted by many authors. The present authors make an attempt to analyse the solar indices data taking into account recent developments of the asymptotic theory of the solar dynamo. The use of the WKB method enables us to estimate the amplitude and the period of the cycle versus dynamo wave parameters in the framework of the nonlinear development of the one-dimensional Parker migratory dynamo. These estimates link the period T and the amplitude a with dynamo number D and thickness of the generation layer of the solar convective zone h. As previous authors, we have not revealed any considerable correlation between the above quantities calculated in the usual way. However, we have found some similar dependences with good confidence using running cycle periods. We have noticed statistically significant dependences between the Wolf numbers and the running period of the magnetic cycle, as well as between maximum sunspot number and duration of the phase of growth of each sunspot cycle. The latter one supports asymptotic estimates of the nonlinear dynamo wave suggested earlier. These dependences may be useful for understanding the mechanism of the solar dynamo wave and prediction of the average maximum amplitude of solar cycles. Besides that, we have noted that the maximum amplitude of the cycle and the temporal derivative of the monthly Wolf numbers at the very beginning of the phase of growth of the cycle have high correlation coefficient of order 0.95. The link between Wolf number data and their derivative taken with a time shift enabled us to predict the dynamics of the sunspot activity. For the current cycle 23 this yields Wolf numbers of order 107±7. 相似文献