首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the Mid-Holocene, Eemian, Mid-Pliocene and the Last Glacial Maximum are used to test the paleoanalog hypothesis and develop a regional climate change scenario based on a linear scaling by one parameter - the mean Northern Hemispheric temperature change with respect to present, ΔT NH. The empirical verification of the paleoanalog hypothesis is extended to a cold epoch for zonal means and to regional distributions of temperature in warm epochs. The best agreement among the scaled paleoanomalies from different epochs is obtained if the seasonal temperature anomalies are scaled with ΔT NH of the corresponding season. Preferential areas are identified where the paleoanalog hypothesis works relatively well; these areas coincide with the areas of the most pronounced warming. It is shown that the geographical distributions of the winter temperature anomalies over land in the paleodata are similar to those in the 1980–1990 period. From the three warm epochs, a paleodata-based scenario is deduced for the spatial distribution of temperature in a future climate, on the scale of continents. The conditions under which scenarios based on paleodata can be applied are discussed.  相似文献   

2.
This work examines the spatial patterns of the transient response of mean annual temperature and precipitation to CO2 (or CO2 plus aerosol or aerosol proxy) radiative forcing in eight coupled AOGCMs, generally for the period 1900–2099. Response patterns are characterized using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and the quasi-EOFs of Harvey and Wigley (the first qEOF field, discussed here, is given by the correlation between local year-by-year temperature changes and the global mean temperature change). The first temperature EOF accounts for 80–95% of the space-time variation of the CO2 run in all of the models, and is almost identical to qEOF1 of the temperature response or to the temperature change pattern averaged over the last 30 years of the simulations. EOF1 accounts for 80–95% of the space-time variation in the CO2+aerosol runs in six of the eight models. The CO2 response patterns of different models are highly correlated with one another (R 2 generally >0.5), and are also highly correlated with the CO2+aerosol response patterns (R 2 0.85 in all except one model). The difference between CO2 and CO2+aerosol runs can be represented by EOF1 of the year-by-year differences, by qEOF1 of the year-by-year differences, or by the difference in temperature averaged over the last 30 years of each run. In models where these representations are highly correlated with each other, they are also highly correlated with CO2 EOF1. In other cases, aerosol EOF1 is modestly to highly correlated with control EOF1 (i.e.: the year-by-year differences between CO2 and CO2+aerosol runs are dominated by internal variability), while aerosol qEOF1 and the 30-year difference are highly correlated with each other. For all models, the decadal mean temperature change can be closely replicated by scaling the CO2 EOF1 pattern based on the global mean temperature changes (RMSE for the last decade is <6% of the RMS temperature change for CO2 runs, <8% for CO2+aerosol runs). The first EOF of the precipitation response to increasing CO2 accounts for only 10–30% of the space-time variation, and is generally highly correlated (R 2 up to 0.85) with control EOF1. In all of the models, there is an increase in precipitation in the ITCZ and a decrease in bands at or near 30°S and 30°N. In many models there is an El Niño-like response, including a substantial decrease in precipitation over the Amazon. Global-mean precipitation increases in all models due to CO2 forcing, but aerosols appear to have a disproportionally large effect in suppressing the increase compared to their effect in suppressing the warming. There is evidence in some models that the non-absorbing aerosols considered here reduce summer monsoon rainfall compared to the changes that would be expected based on the globally averaged effect of aerosols on precipitation. When regional precipitation changes over time are predicted by scaling a fixed precipitation-change pattern with the global mean temperature change, the global mean RMSE in the predicted change in decadal-mean precipitation is 25–35% of the global RMS precipitation changes by the end of the simulation.  相似文献   

3.
Vegetation is a major component of the climate system because of its controls on the energy and water balance over land. This functioning changes because of the physiological response of leaves to increased CO2. A climate model is used to compare these changes with the climate changes from radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. For this purpose, we use the Community Earth System Model coupled to a slab ocean. Ensemble integrations are done for current and doubled CO2. The consequent reduction of transpiration and net increase of surface radiative heating from reduction in cloudiness increases the temperature over land by a significant fraction of that directly from the radiative warming by CO2. Large-scale atmospheric circulation adjustments result. In particular, over the tropics, a low-level westerly wind anomaly develops associated with reduced geopotential height over land, enhancing moisture transport and convergence, and precipitation increases over the western Amazon, the Congo basin, South Africa, and Indonesia, while over mid-latitudes, land precipitation decreases from reduced evapotranspiration. On average, land precipitation is enhanced by 0.03 mm day?1 (about 19 % of the CO2 radiative forcing induced increase). This increase of land precipitation with decreased ET is an apparent negative feedback, i.e., less ET makes more precipitation. Global precipitation is slightly reduced. Runoff increases associated with both the increased land precipitation and reduced evapotranspiration. Examining the consistency of the variations among ensemble members shows that vegetation feedbacks on precipitation are more robust over the tropics and in mid to high latitudes than over the subtropics where vegetation is sparse and the internal climate variability has a larger influence.  相似文献   

4.
Anthropogenic influences on regional climate and water resources over East Asia are simulated by using a regional model nested to a global model. The changes of land use/land cover (LULC) and CO2 concentration are considered. The results show that variations of LULC and CO2 concentration during the past 130 years caused a warming trend in many regions of East Asia. The most remarkable temperature increase occurred in Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North China, whereas temperature decreased in Gansu Province and north of Sichuan Province. LULC and CO2 changes over the past 130 years resulted in a decreasing trend of precipitation in the Huaihe River valley, Shandong Byland, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but precipitation increased along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and parts of South China. This pattern of precipitation change with changes in surface evapotranspiration may have caused a more severe drought in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River valley. The drought trend, however, weakened in the mid and upper reaches of the Yellow River valley, and the Yangtze River valley floods were increasing. In addition, changes in LULC and CO2 concentration during the past 130 years led to adjustments in the East Asian monsoon circulation, which further affected water vapor transport and budget, making North China warm and dry, the Sichuan basin cold and wet, and East China warm and wet.  相似文献   

5.
Recently much concern has been expressed regarding the impact of an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on climate. Unfortunately, present understanding and models of the climate system are not good enough for reliable prediction of such impacts. This paper presents an analysis of recent climate data in order to illustrate the nature of regional temperature and rainfall changes in different seasons and to provide some guidance with regard to points which might be borne in mind when scenarios of future climate (especially those taking into account human impacts) are being formulated.Since it is believed that an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration will cause a warming and models and data suggest that the Arctic is more sensitive to climatic change than other latitudes, anomalies associated with warm Arctic seasons have been studied.The regional temperature, precipitation and pressure anomalies in the northern hemisphere for the 10 warmest Arctic winters and 10 warmest Arctic summers during the last 70 years have been investigated. Even when the Arctic area is warm, there are circulation changes such that large coherent anomalies occur elsewhere, with some regions warming and some cooling. The 10 warmest Arctic winters were characterised by larger amplitude anomalies, in the Arctic and elsewhere, than the 10 warmest summers, illustrating the difference in response between seasons. The precipitation differences for the 10 warmest Arctic winters and summers show for North America large coherent areas of increase or decrease, which again differ according to season. However, in winter the differences are not statistically significant, while the differences in two areas are significant in summer.  相似文献   

6.
In order to test the sensitivity of regional climate to regional-scale atmosphere-land cover feedbacks, we have employed a regional climate model asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model, focusing on the western United States as a case study. CO2-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks resulted in statistically significant seasonal temperature changes of up to 3.5°C, with land cover change accounting for up to 60% of the total seasonal response to elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. In many areas, such as the Great Basin, albedo acted as the primary control on changes in surface temperature. Along the central coast of California, soil moisture effects magnified the temperature response in JJA and SON, with negative surface soil moisture anomalies accompanied by negative evaporation anomalies, decreasing latent heat flux and further increasing surface temperature. Additionally, negative temperature anomalies were calculated at high elevation in California and Oregon in DJF, MAM and SON, indicating that future warming of these sensitive areas could be mitigated by changes in vegetation distribution and an associated muting of winter snow-temperature feedbacks. Precipitation anomalies were almost universally not statistically significant, and very little change in mean seasonal atmospheric circulation occurred in response to atmosphere-land cover feedbacks. Further, the mean regional temperature sensitivity to regional-scale land cover feedbacks did not exceed the large-scale sensitivity calculated elsewhere, indicating that spatial heterogeneity does not introduce non-linearities in the response of regional climate to CO2-induced atmosphere-land cover feedbacks.  相似文献   

7.
Results are first presented from an analysis of a global coupled climate model regarding changes in future mean and variability of south Asian monsoon precipitation due to increased atmospheric CO2 for doubled (2 × CO2) and quadrupled (4 × CO2) present-day amounts. Results from the coupled model show that, in agreement with previous studies, mean area-averaged south Asian monsoon precipitation increases with greater CO2 concentrations, as does the interannual variability. Mechanisms producing these changes are then examined in a series of AMIP2-style sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric model (taken from the coupled model) run with specified SSTs. Three sets of ensemble experiments are run with SST anomalies superimposed on the AMIP2 SSTs from 1979–97: (1) anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs, (2) anomalously warm Pacific Ocean SSTs, and (3) anomalously warm Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs. Results from these experiments show that the greater mean monsoon precipitation is due to increased moisture source from the warmer Indian Ocean. Increased south Asian monsoon interannual variability is primarily due to warmer Pacific Ocean SSTs with enhanced evaporation variability, with the warmer Indian Ocean SSTs a contributing but secondary factor. That is, for a given interannual tropical Pacific SST fluctuation with warmer mean SSTs in the future climate, there is enhanced evaporation and precipitation variability that is communicated via the Walker Circulation in the atmosphere to the south Asian monsoon to increase interannual precipitation variability there. This enhanced monsoon variability occurs even with no change in interannual SST variability in the tropical Pacific.  相似文献   

8.
Atmospheric CO2 removal is currently receiving serious consideration as a supplement or even alternative to emissions reduction. However the possible consequences of such a strategy for the climate system, and particularly for regional changes to the hydrological cycle, are not well understood. Two idealised general circulation model experiments are described, where CO2 concentrations are steadily increased, then decreased along the same path. Global mean precipitation continues to increase for several decades after CO2 begins to decrease. The mean tropical circulation shows associated changes due to the constraint on the global circulation imposed by precipitation and water vapour. The patterns of precipitation and circulation change also exhibit asymmetries with regard to changes in both CO2 and global mean temperature, but while the lag in global precipitation can be ascribed to different levels of CO2 at the same temperature state, the regional changes cannot. Instead, ocean memory and heat transfer are important here. In particular the equatorial East Pacific continues to warm relative to the West Pacific during CO2 ramp-down, producing an anomalously large equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient and associated rainfall anomalies. The mechanism is likely to be a lag in response to atmospheric forcing between mixed-layer water in the east Pacific and the sub-thermocline water below, due to transport through the ocean circulation. The implication of this study is that a CO2 pathway of increasing then decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may lead us to climate states during CO2 decrease that have not been experienced during the increase.  相似文献   

9.
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere acts to control the stomatal conductance of plants. There is observational and modelling evidence that an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would suppress the evapotranspiration (ET) rate over land. This process is known as CO2 physiological forcing and has been shown to induce changes in surface temperature and continental runoff. We analyse two transient climate simulations for the twenty-first century to isolate the climate response to the CO2 physiological forcing. The land surface warming associated with the decreased ET rate is accompanied by an increase in the atmospheric lapse rate, an increase in specific humidity, but a decrease in relative humidity and stratiform cloud over land. We find that the water vapour feedback more than compensates for the decrease in latent heat flux over land as far as the budget of atmospheric water vapour is concerned. There is evidence that surface snow, water vapour and cloudiness respond to the CO2 physiological forcing and all contribute to further warm the climate system. The climate response to the CO2 physiological forcing has a quite different signature to that from the CO2 radiative forcing, especially in terms of the changes in the temperature vertical profile and surface energy budget over land.  相似文献   

10.
In order to estimate a transient response of the local hydrological cycle and vegetation cover in the African monsoon area to global climate changes, a simple two-dimensional water vapor transport model coupled with a carbon cycle model for the soil was used. The key difference from other models is that we take into account a positive feedback between the precipitation and development of the vegetation root system in the underlying surface. As our calculation shows, this feedback is responsible for a long-term transient response of local hydrological cycles to the global temperature changes. In the case of a four component vegetation system - tropical forests, savannah, semi desert and desert, (and 2 °C ocean surface water warming), a new steady-state is reached in about 1500 years.In previous works of other authors, the increase of summer precipitations during Holocene or Last Interglacial could be explained only as a result of the surface temperature increase in the intracontinental parts of Africa. However, from paleodata indicates, the temperature in the intracontinental regions of Africa rather decreased during warm epochs of geological past: Holocene optimum, Last Interglacial and middle Pliocene climatic optimum. Our simple model simulations agree with both paleoprecipitation and paleotemperature data.  相似文献   

11.
We analyze results of 15 global climate simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Focusing on the western USA, we consider both present climate simulations and predicted responses to increasing atmospheric CO2. The models vary in their ability to predict the present climate. In the western USA, a few models produce a seasonal cycle for spatially averaged temperature and/or precipitation in good agreement with observational data. Other models tend to over-predict precipitation in the winter or exaggerate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of temperature. The models also differ in their ability to reproduce the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in the USA. Considering the monthly mean precipitation responses to doubled atmospheric CO2, averaged over the western USA, we find some models predict increases while others predict decreases. The predicted temperature response, on the other hand, is invariably positive over this region; however, for each month, the range of values given by the different models is large compared to the mean model response. We look for possible relationships between the models temperature and precipitation responses to doubled CO2 concentration and their ability to simulate some aspects of the present climate. We find that these relationships are weak, at best. The precipitation response over the western USA in DJF and the precipitation response over the mid- and tropical latitudes seem to be correlated with the RMS error in simulated present-day precipitation, also calculated over the mid- and tropical latitudes. However, considering only the responses of the models with the smallest RMS errors does not provide a different estimate of the precipitation response to a doubled CO2 concentration, because even among the most accurate models, the range of model responses is so large. For temperature, we find that models that have smaller RMS errors in present-climate temperature in the north eastern Pacific region predict a higher temperature response in the western USA than the models with larger errors. A similar relation exists between the temperature response over Europe in DJF and the RMS error calculated over the Northern Atlantic.  相似文献   

12.
General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO2 atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean, because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also, a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs, which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition, a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO2 climates of Hudson Bay, a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region.  相似文献   

13.
The snow-sea-ice albedo parameterization in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean and run with an annual cycle of solar forcing, is altered from a version of the same model described by Washington and Meehl (1984). The model with the revised formulation is run to equilibrium for 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 experiments. The 1 ×CO2 (control) simulation produces a global mean climate about 1° warmer than the original version, and sea-ice extent is reduced. The model with the altered parameterization displays heightened sensitivity in the global means, but the geographical patterns of climate change due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) are qualitatively similar. The magnitude of the climate change is affected, not only in areas directly influenced by snow and ice changes but also in other regions of the globe, including the tropics where sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation over the oceans are greater. With the less-sensitive formulation, the global mean surface air temperature increase is 3.5 °C, and the increase of global mean precipitation is 7.12%. The revised formulation produces a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 4.04 °C and a precipitation increase of 7.25%, as well as greater warming of the upper tropical troposphere. Sensitivity of surface hydrology is qualitatively similar between the two cases with the larger-magnitude changes in the revised snow and ice-albedo scheme experiment. Variability of surface air temperature in the model is comparable to observations in most areas except at high latitudes during winter. In those regions, temporal variation of the sea-ice margin and fluctuations of snow cover dependent on the snow-ice-albedo formulation contribute to larger-than-observed temperature variability. This study highlights an uncertainty associated with results from current climate GCMs that use highly parameterized snow-sea-ice albedo schemes with simple mixed-layer ocean models.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

14.
Uncertainties in the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quantified in a perturbed land surface parameter experiment. The ensemble of 108 members is constructed by systematically perturbing five poorly constrained land surface parameters of global climate model individually and in all possible combinations. The land surface parameters induce small uncertainties at global scale, substantial uncertainties at regional and seasonal scale and very large uncertainties in the tails of the distribution, the climate extremes. Climate sensitivity varies across the ensemble mainly due to the perturbation of the snow albedo parameterization, which controls the snow albedo feedback strength. The uncertainty range in the global response is small relative to perturbed physics experiments focusing on atmospheric parameters. However, land surface parameters are revealed to control the response not only of the mean but also of the variability of temperature. Major uncertainties are identified in the response of climate extremes to a doubling of CO2. During winter the response both of temperature mean and daily variability relates to fractional snow cover. Cold extremes over high latitudes warm disproportionately in ensemble members with strong snow albedo feedback and large snow cover reduction. Reduced snow cover leads to more winter warming and stronger variability decrease. As a result uncertainties in mean and variability response line up, with some members showing weak and others very strong warming of the cold tail of the distribution, depending on the snow albedo parametrization. The uncertainty across the ensemble regionally exceeds the CMIP3 multi-model range. Regarding summer hot extremes, the uncertainties are larger than for mean summer warming but smaller than in multi-model experiments. The summer precipitation response to a doubling of CO2 is not robust over many regions. Land surface parameter perturbations and natural variability alter the sign of the response even over subtropical regions.  相似文献   

15.
It is investigated how abrupt changes in the North Atlantic (NA) thermohaline circulation (THC) affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is forced with climate perturbations from glacial freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIO ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model. A reorganisation of the marine carbon cycle is not addressed. Modelled NA THC collapses and recovers after about a millennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initial cooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction of extant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage in high northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions and slower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage in mid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrial carbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitively on the initial climate conditions. These were varied using results from time slice simulations with the Hadley Centre model HadSM3 for different periods over the past 21 kyr. Changes in terrestrial storage vary between −67 and +50 PgC for the range of experiments with different initial conditions. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO2 are 6 and 13 ppmv for glacial and late Holocene conditions. Simulated changes in δ13C are between 0.15 and 0.25‰. These simulated carbon storage anomalies during a NA THC collapse depend on their magnitude on the CO2 fertilisation feedback mechanism. The CO2 changes simulated for glacial conditions are compatible with available evidence from marine studies and the ice core CO2 record. The latter shows multi-millennial CO2 variations of up to 20 ppmv broadly in parallel with the Antarctic warm events A1 to A4 in the South and cooling in the North.  相似文献   

16.
We discuss equilibrium changes in daily extreme surface air temperature and precipitation events in response to doubled atmospheric CO2, simulated in an ensemble of 53 versions of HadSM3, consisting of the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean. By virtue of its size and design, the ensemble, which samples uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of atmospheric physical processes and the effects of natural variability, provides a first opportunity to quantify the robustness of predictions of changes in extremes obtained from GCM simulations. Changes in extremes are quantified by calculating the frequency of exceedance of a fixed threshold in the 2 × CO2 simulation relative to the 1 × CO2 simulation. The ensemble-mean value of this relative frequency provides a best estimate of the expected change while the range of values across the ensemble provides a measure of the associated uncertainty. For example, when the extreme threshold is defined as the 99th percentile of the 1 × CO2 distribution, the global-mean ensemble-mean relative frequency of extremely warm days is found to be 20 in January, and 28 in July, implying that events occurring on one day per hundred under present day conditions would typically occur on 20–30 days per hundred under 2 × CO2 conditons. However the ensemble range in the relative frequency is of similar magnitude to the ensemble-mean value, indicating considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the increase. The relative frequencies in response to doubled CO2 become smaller as the threshold used to define the extreme event is reduced. For one variable (July maximum daily temperature) we investigate this simulated variation with threshold, showing that it can be quite well reproduced by assuming the response to doubling CO2 to be characterised simply as a uniform shift of a Gaussian distribution. Nevertheless, doubling CO2 does lead to changes in the shape of the daily distributions for both temperature and precipitation, but the effect of these changes on the relative frequency of extreme events is generally larger for precipitation. For example, around one-fifth of the globe exhibits ensemble-mean decreases in time-averaged precipitation accompanied by increases in the frequency of extremely wet days. The ensemble range of changes in precipitation extremes (relative to the ensemble mean of the changes) is typically larger than for temperature extremes, indicating greater uncertainty in the precipitation changes. In the global average, extremely wet days are predicted to become twice as common under 2 × CO2 conditions. We also consider changes in extreme seasons, finding that simulated increases in the frequency of extremely warm or wet seasons under 2 × CO2 are almost everywhere greater than the corresponding increase in daily extremes. The smaller increases in the frequency of daily extremes is explained by the influence of day-to-day weather variability which inflates the variance of daily distributions compared to their seasonal counterparts.  相似文献   

17.
A version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model — a global, spectral (R15) general circulation model — is coupled to a coarse-grid (5° latitude-] longitude, four-layer) ocean general circulation model to study the response of the climate system to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Three simulations are run: one with an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 (from 330 to 660 ppm), another with the CO2 concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at a rate of 1% per year, and a third with CO2 held constant at 330 pm. Results at the end of 30 years of simulation indicate a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 1.6° C for the instantaneous doubling case and 0.7°C for the transient forcing case. Inherent characteristics of the coarse-grid ocean model flow sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes] produce lower sensitivity in this model after 30 years than in earlier simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m, slab-ocean mixed layer. Within the limitations of the simulated meridional overturning, the thermohaline circulation weakens in the coupled model with doubled CO2 as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and westerly wind stress is decreased. In the transient forcing case with slowly increasing CO2 (30% increase after 30 years), the zonal mean warming of the ocean is most evident in the surface layer near 30°–50° S. Geographical plots of surface air temperature change in the transient case show patterns of regional climate anomalies that differ from those in the instantaneous CO2 doubling case, particularly in the North Atlantic and northern European regions. This suggests that differences in CO2 forcing in the climate system are important in CO2 response in regard to time-dependent climate anomaly regimes. This confirms earlier studies with simple climate models that instantaneous CO2 doubling simulations may not be analogous in all respects to simulations with slowly increasing CO2.A portion of this study is supported by the US Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program  相似文献   

18.
This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5–10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970–1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061±0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models’ inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.  相似文献   

19.
Terrestrial vegetation dynamics and global climate controls   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Monthly data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and its predecessor satellite sensors was used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in response to climate patterns over the period 1983–2005. Results suggest that plant growth over extensive land areas of southern Africa and Central Asia were the most closely coupled of any major land area to El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) effects on regional climate. Others land areas strongly tied to recent ENSO climate effects were in northern Canada, Alaska, western US, northern Mexico, northern Argentina, and Australia. Localized variations in precipitation were the most common controllers of monthly values for the fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) over these regions. In addition to the areas cited above, seasonal FPAR values from MODIS were closely coupled to rainfall patterns in grassland and cropland areas of the northern and central US. Historical associations between global vegetation FPAR and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) anomalies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere can contribute major fluxes of CO2 during major drought events, such as those triggered by 1997–1998 El Niño event.  相似文献   

20.
 To investigate the cloud response during cold and warm periods, we have performed simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM-21ky BP) and of double CO2 concentration using the LMD AGCM model. We observe that the thermal characteristics of these two climates are opposite, but the cloud response is more complex and does not display the same symmetry When doubling the CO2, the warming of the troposphere and the cooling of the stratosphere are clearly linked with a reduction in low-level clouds and an increase of high-level clouds associated with relative humidity changes. For the LGM, the cloud response is more complex. In the inter tropical region, we show that the Hadley cell is reinforced during LGM (+20%) whereas it is reduced (−10%) for the double CO2 experiments. The most important feature is that we observe an enlarged Hadley cell for LGM climate which strongly modifies the atmospheric dynamics and water transport. For LGM conditions, the cloud response is then mostly driven by these dynamical changes at low latitudes though at high latitudes the thermal changes explain a large part of the cloud response. Two different versions of the model, using different parametrizations for the precipitation show that cloud feedbacks may act differently for cold and warm climates; and that the cloud response may be more complex that previously expected, but also indicate that the details of these effects are model dependent.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号