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1.
We present the results of our simulation and study of the regions of possible motions for 46 newly discovered Jovian satellites. We show that the orbits of some satellites (such as S/2003 J02, S/2003 J03, S/2003 J04, S/2003 J10, S/2003 J12, and S/2003 J23) presently cannot yet be determined with an acceptable accuracy for planning observations, because the amount of observational information is insufficient. 相似文献
2.
We analyze the possibility of determining the masses of outer planetary satellites from their mutual gravitational perturbations via ground-based observations. Such a technique has been applied in (Emelyanov, 2005b) to determine the mass of the Jovian satellite Himalia. In this paper, we use the least-squares method to compute the errors of satellite masses inferred from simulated observations. We analyze several of the most suitable variants of groups of outer satellites of planets with maximum mutual attraction. We found that the mass of the Satumian satellite Phoebe (S9) can be refined by continuing observations of the satellite S25 Mundilfari until 2027. We show that the masses of other known outer planetary satellites cannot be determined from ground-based observations. 相似文献
3.
Victor A. Avdyushev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2011,110(4):369-388
Determination of orbital parameters from observations is formally a nonlinear inverse problem for solving which evidently
nonlinear methods are required. Meanwhile, an accompanying stage in solving the inverse problem is the evaluation of parametric
accuracy to which, however, linear methods are conventionally applied. This is quite justified if parametric errors caused
by observation errors are rather small, otherwise this is not at all since the nonlinearity of the inverse problem can be
considerable to influence on the evaluations of parametric accuracy especially when the observations are very few. With the
advent of quick-operating and multiprocessor computers, recently one tends to employ statistic simulation of virtual parameter
values for investigating uncertainties in orbits determined from observations. In the paper are just discussed the methods
designed specially for nonlinear statistic simulation of virtual parameter values. Their efficiency is investigated in application
to estimating uncertainties in the orbit of Jovian satellite S/2003 J04 whose orbital parameters are ill-determined owing
to scanty available observations. Indices of nonlinearity are introduced for making decision in the choice between linear
and nonlinear methods. 相似文献
4.
《New Astronomy》2024
The EW-type eclipsing binaries are strongly interacting systems known to have often both component stars filling their crucial Roche lobes and having a common envelope. We present new BVRI light curves of the eclipsing binaries ZTF J214226.88+435,827.1 (ZTF21+43) and KAO-EGYPT J214216.38+440,015.1 (KAO21+44) based on CCD observations acquired with the 1.88-m Kottamia Astronomical Observatory (KAO) at Newtonian and Cassegrain telescope focus. The modeling results show that these two systems are to be W UMa contact binaries belonging to EW subtypes. All the light curves show the inverse O'Connell effect. We computed new ephemeris for each system using our times of minima and that available in the literature. Using our new times of minima and epochs for both systems from all available observations, the orbital period changes of these structures are studied for our systems. Using the PHOEBE package, a preliminary determination of the two systems' photometric orbital and physical parameters has been present. The positions of the systems were also depicted on the Hertzsprung-Russell (H-R), M-L, and Teff-L diagrams to test their evolutionary status. 相似文献
5.
Nikolay Emelyanov 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(3):411-420
Ephemerides of planetary satellites are needed to address many problems. These ephemerides are used for subsequent observations. A comparison of the available ephemerides with new observations allows the accuracy of the former to be assessed. However, the precision of the ephemerides must be known a priori when solving the tasks. In this paper we formulate and solve the problem of estimating the precision of the ephemerides of outer planetary satellites derived from observations when applied up to the future moments.The methods of assessing the precision of ephemerides involve producing a set of samples of the same ephemeris inferred from observations with different samples of Monte Carlo generated random errors (RO) superimposed onto it. The statistical parameters of simulated observational errors are based on the results of the reduction of real satellite observations. We compute the deviations of the samples of the ephemeris from the standard ephemeris inferred from real observations and adopt the root-mean-square deviation of the apparent coordinates as the precision of the ephemeris. We also use alternative methods: one based on the matrix of covariances of parameter errors (RP), and another one based on bootstrap samples of observations (BS).We use three methods (RO, RP, and BS) to estimate the precision of the ephemerides of all the 107 outer planetary satellites over the 2010-2020 time interval. The precision of the ephemerides of different satellites varies from 0.05 to 4.0 arcsec. For a number of satellites new observations are of vital importance for maintaining the precision of the ephemerides at a level that would allow identification of satellites during the reduction of observations. For some satellites the precision of their ephemerides is of the order of the sizes of their orbits and such satellites can be considered to have been lost. We show that the method of bootstrap samples (BS) can give doubtful results in the cases where there are few observations, which covered a time interval that is shorter than the orbital period of the satellite.Our results suggest obtaining more precise ephemeris making new observations at the times of maximum estimated errors of the ephemeris.All the inferred estimates of the precision of ephemerides are available from the MULTI-SAT ephemeris server: www.imcce.fr/sat (IMCCE), www.sai.msu.ru/neb/nss/index.htm (SAI). 相似文献
6.
7.
On February 8, 1974, Skylab 1 was manoeuvred into a near circular orbit of inclination 50.04° and perigee near 420km. Orbital parameters have been computed at forty-six epochs thereafter using all available observations. Using these orbital elements, supplemented by orbital decay rates derived from NORAD bulletins, 193 values of air density were determined between 23 February, 1974 and 11, August, 1976. Corrected to a fixed height and normalised with respect to exospheric temperature these values reveal the semi-annual variation, exhibiting maxima in March–April and October–November, and minima in January–February and July–August. For 1974–1976 the July minima are more pronounced than the January minima whilst the April and October maxima appear equal. Overall the variation is greater than that indicated by CIRA 1972. 相似文献
8.
We estimate the effect of trajectory measurement errors on the orbital parameters of asteroid Apophis determined from improvements. For this purpose, based on all of the optical and radar observations available to date, we have computed a nominal orbit of the asteroid. The scatter ellipsoid of the initial conditions of motion has been obtained by two methods. In the first, universally accepted method, the scatter ellipsoid is calculated by assuming a linear dependence of the errors in the parameters being determined on observational errors. In the second method, the scatter region of the orbital parameters around the nominal-orbit parameters is determined by the Monte Carlo method. We show that the region determined by the latter method at the initial epoch differs only slightly from the scatter ellipsoid for the linear approximation. We estimate the sizes of the projections of the corresponding regions onto the target plane at the time of the closest encounter of the asteroid with the Earth in 2029. The projections are approximated by ellipses. Our computations have shown that the ellipse has the following sizes: 389.6 km for the semimajor axis and 16.4 km for the semiminor axis in the linear case and 330.0 and 11.1 km, respectively, in the nonlinear case. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we analyze the results of ground-based and space-born photometric observations of the major satellites of Uranus—Miranda, Ariel, Umbriel, Titania, and Oberon. All sets of photometric observations of the satellites available in the literature were examined for uniformity and systematic differences and summarized to a unified set by wavelength ranging from 0.25 to 2.4 μm. This set covers the interval of phase angles from 0.034° to 35°. The compound phase curves of brightness of the satellites in the spectral bands at 0.25, 0.41, 0.48, 0.56, 0.75, 0.91, 1.4, and 1.8 μm, which include a pronounced opposition surge and linear part, were constructed. For each satellite, the geometric albedo was found in different spectral bands taking into account the brightness opposition effect, and its spectral dependence was studied. It has been shown that the reflectance of the satellites linearly depends on the wavelength at different phase angles, but has different spectral gradients. The parameters of the phase functions of brightness, including the amplitude and the angular width of the brightness opposition surge, the phase coefficient, and the phase angle at which the nonlinear increase in brightness starts, were determined and their dependences on wavelength and geometric albedo were analyzed. Our investigations show that, in their optical properties, the satellites Miranda and Ariel, Titania and Oberon, and Umbriel present three types of surfaces. The observed parameters of the brightness opposition effect for the Uranian satellites, some ice satellites of Jupiter and Saturn, and the E-and S-type asteroids are analyzed and compared within the framework of the coherent backscattering and mutual shadowing mechanisms. 相似文献
10.
Necdet Güdür 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1978,57(1):17-39
The detached eclipsing binary system AG Per was observed at Ege University Observatory on 12 nights from December 1974 to December 1975. Approximately 460 observations were obtained in each yellow and blue. AG Per has long been known to have an apsidal motion and eccentricities. New apsidal motion parameters based on the author's observations and all of the other minima are given. Solutions for its orbital elements were carried out using three different procedures: the Kitamura method, Wood triaxial ellipsoid model and Kopal's Fourier analysis method in the frequency-domain. By use of the available spectroscopic data for AG Per, the observational apsidal motion constant has been calculated. 相似文献
11.
V. A. Avdyushev 《Solar System Research》2009,43(6):543-551
A Monte Carlo-type method for simulating virtual values of the parameters in inverse orbital dynamics problems for highly
nonlinear cases is proposed. The method is based on imitating Fisher’s statistics employed to specify the confidence region,
and is implemented by solving repeatedly nonlinear least-squares problems with various samples of simulated observations obtainable
by suitable random variations. 相似文献
12.
Gojko Djurašević 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,206(1):119-127
The paper is devoted to the actual problematics in the determination of orbital and physical parameters of active CB on the basis of the interpretation of photometric observations. One solves the problem in two stages: by obtaining a synthetic light curve in the case when the parameters of the corresponding CB model are given a priori (direct problem) and by determining the parameters of the given model for which the best fit between the synthetic light curve and the observations is achieved (inverse problem). In this paper, the above procedure is applied to a particular case of CB AG Vir. 相似文献
13.
Convergence of the expansions of the disturbing functions in the planar three-body planetary problem
V. G. Sokolov 《Solar System Research》2007,41(2):162-170
In the framework of the planar three-body planetary problem, conditions are found for the absolute convergence of the expansions of the disturbing functions in powers of the eccentricities, with coefficients represented by trigonometric polynomials with respect to the mean, eccentric, or true anomaly of the inner planet. It is found that using the eccentric or true anomaly as the independent variable instead of the mean anomaly (or time) extends the holomorphy domain of the principal part of the perturbation functions. The expansions of the second parts converge in open bicircles, which admit values of the eccentricity of the inner planet in excess of the Laplace limit. 相似文献
14.
Roberto Armellin Pierluigi Di Lizia Renato Zanetti 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2016,125(4):435-450
A method to deal with uncertainties in initial orbit determination (IOD) is presented. This is based on the use of Taylor differential algebra (DA) to nonlinearly map uncertainties from the observation space to the state space. When a minimum set of observations is available, DA is used to expand the solution of the IOD problem in Taylor series with respect to measurement errors. When more observations are available, high order inversion tools are exploited to obtain full state pseudo-observations at a common epoch. The mean and covariance of these pseudo-observations are nonlinearly computed by evaluating the expectation of high order Taylor polynomials. Finally, a linear scheme is employed to update the current knowledge of the orbit. Angles-only observations are considered and simplified Keplerian dynamics adopted to ease the explanation. Three test cases of orbit determination of artificial satellites in different orbital regimes are presented to discuss the feature and performances of the proposed methodology. 相似文献
15.
Estimates of tidal damping times of the orbital eccentricities of Saturn's inner satellites place constraints on some satellite rigidities and dissipation functions Q. These constraints favor rock-like rather than ice-like properties for Mimas and probably Dione. Photometric and other observational data are consistent with relatively higher densities for these two satellites, but require lower densities for Tethys, Enceladus, and Rhea. This leads to a nonmonotonic density distribution for Saturn's inner satellites, apparently determined by different mass fractions of rocky materials. In spite of the consequences of tidal dissipation for the orbital eccentricity decay and implications for satellite compositions, tidal heating is not an important contributor to the thermal history of any Saturnian satellite. 相似文献
16.
M. A. Vashkov’yak 《Astronomy Letters》2001,27(7):455-463
Based on data for twelve recently discovered outer satellites of Saturn, we investigate their orbital evolution on long time scales. For our analysis, we use the previously obtained general solution of Hill’s double-averaged problem, which was refined for libration orbits, and numerical integration of the averaged system of equations in elements with allowance for Saturn’s orbital evolution. The following basic quantitative parameters of evolving orbits are determined: extreme eccentricities and inclinations, as well as circulation periods of the pericenter arguments and of the longitudes of the ascending nodes. For four new satellite orbits, we have revealed the libration pattern of variations in pericenter arguments and determined the ranges and periods of their variations. Based on characteristic features of the orbits of Saturn’s new satellites, we propose their natural classification. 相似文献
17.
Bruce G. Bills 《Icarus》2005,175(1):233-247
The obliquity, or angular separation between orbit normal and spin pole, is an important parameter for the geodynamics of most Solar System bodies. Tidal dissipation has driven the obliquities of the Galilean satellites of Jupiter to small, but non-zero values. We present estimates of the free and forced obliquities of these satellites using a simple secular variation model for the orbits, and spin pole precession rate estimates based on gravity field parameters derived from Galileo spacecraft encounters. The free obliquity values are not well constrained by observations, but are presumed to be very small. The forced obliquity variations depend only on the orbital variations and the spin pole precession rate parameters, which are quite well known. These variations are large enough to influence spatial and temporal patterns of tidal dissipation and tidal stress. 相似文献
18.
One of the main problems in celestial mechanics is the management of long developments in Fourier or Poisson series used to describe the perturbed motion in the planetary system.In this work we shall develop a software package that is suitable for managing these objects. This package includes algorithms to obtain the inverse of the distance based on an iterative method, a set of integration algorithms according to several sets of temporal variables.This paper contains a comparative study on the use of the true, eccentric, and elliptic anomalies in semi-analytical methods on celestial mechanics. 相似文献
19.
Since 1998, 97 new remote satellites of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune have been discovered. Since their brightness
is rather weak, it is difficult to perform their photometry and determine their physical parameters. For 27 satellites from
this group, different authors carried out special photometric investigations. For the other 70 satellites, the magnitudes
accompanying the results of astrometric observations published in Minor Planet Circulars (MPC) are the only photometric data. In the present study, the photometric model parameters for all of the 97 remote satellites
have been determined. From the hypothetic values of albedo and material density of the satellites, their sizes and gravitation
parameters have been estimated. The whole volume of the obtained results is available in the database of the natural planetary
satellites (NSDB) (Arlot and Emelyanov, 2009) published on the Internet (). 相似文献
20.
Victor A. Avdyushev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,129(4):537-552
Orbit determination from a small sample of observations over a very short observed orbital arc is a strongly nonlinear inverse problem. In such problems an evaluation of orbital uncertainty due to random observation errors is greatly complicated, since linear estimations conventionally used are no longer acceptable for describing the uncertainty even as a rough approximation. Nevertheless, if an inverse problem is weakly intrinsically nonlinear, then one can resort to the so-called method of disturbed observations (aka observational Monte Carlo). Previously, we showed that the weaker the intrinsic nonlinearity, the more efficient the method, i.e. the more accurate it enables one to simulate stochastically the orbital uncertainty, while it is strictly exact only when the problem is intrinsically linear. However, as we ascertained experimentally, its efficiency was found to be higher than that of other stochastic methods widely applied in practice. In the present paper we investigate the intrinsic nonlinearity in complicated inverse problems of Celestial Mechanics when orbits are determined from little informative samples of observations, which typically occurs for recently discovered asteroids. To inquire into the question, we introduce an index of intrinsic nonlinearity. In asteroid problems it evinces that the intrinsic nonlinearity can be strong enough to affect appreciably probabilistic estimates, especially at the very short observed orbital arcs that the asteroids travel on for about a hundredth of their orbital periods and less. As it is known from regression analysis, the source of intrinsic nonlinearity is the nonflatness of the estimation subspace specified by a dynamical model in the observation space. Our numerical results indicate that when determining asteroid orbits it is actually very slight. However, in the parametric space the effect of intrinsic nonlinearity is exaggerated mainly by the ill-conditioning of the inverse problem. Even so, as for the method of disturbed observations, we conclude that it practically should be still entirely acceptable to adequately describe the orbital uncertainty since, from a geometrical point of view, the efficiency of the method directly depends only on the nonflatness of the estimation subspace and it gets higher as the nonflatness decreases. 相似文献