共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 922 毫秒
1.
The marine environmental forecast plays an increasingly important role in economic growth and infrastructure development, and touches upon many fields and aspects, including marine security, energy resources development and protection, ocean shipping and fisheries. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) OceanView supports the national research groups providing them with coordination and technical support among the partners. Forecasting centers develop and establish global operational ocean forecast systems. The global operational ocean forecasting system uses the ocean dynamic numerical model as the dynamic framework, and the near real-time high-quality observation input field is integrated into the model by data assimilation to realize the future environmental forecasts of the marine conditions covering the multi-time scale. The products are routinely validated with observations in order to assess their quality. This paper briefly introduced and reviewed the development process and current situation of the global ocean forecasting system covered by GODAE OceanView, and outlined the future development of global ocean forecasting. 相似文献
2.
Liu Zenghong Wu Xiaofen Xu Jianping Li Hong Lu Shaolei Sun Chaohui Cao Minjie 《地球科学进展》2016,31(5):445-460
For 15 years since the beginning of China Argo project, China has deployed over 350 profiling floats in Pacific and Indian ocean, and constructed China Argo ocean observing network. Moreover, we have setup the Argo data receiving, processing and distributing system, and developed various Argo data products using Argo observations, which has promoted the progress of ocean data sharing in China. The abundant Argo data have become a main data source in oceanic and atmospheric basic researches and operational applications. A batch of important achievements in basic research and operational application have been brought, e.g. in aspects of tropical cyclone (typhoon), ocean circulation, meso-scale eddy, turbulence, heat/salt storage and transport and water mass, as well as in ocean, atmosphere/climate operational forecasting and predicting. With the extension of the international Argo program from “Core Argo” to “Global Argo”, we are faced with great challenges in the long-term maintaining and sustained developing of our Argo ocean observing network. It is suggested that we should take the opportunity to construct China regional Argo ocean observing network as soon as possible in adjacent northwestern Pacific and Indian ocean using Chinese BeiDou profiling floats, which will make us to take responsibility and obligation of a big country for addressing global climate changes and preventing natural disasters. 相似文献
3.
Canada is a typical maritime country, fisheries economic prosperity and marine sustainable development have been the main management and research work. From two perspectives of research literatures and latest strategic plans, this paper studied the ocean research priorities and hot trends of Canada. The study found that the marine science and technology in Canada focuses on marine populations and ecosystems, protection of the marine environment and species, marine monitoring and data information, marine technology and management tools, Climate change and arctic research, deep-sea material energy and driving mechanisms. In the future, Canada will continue further study on arctic research, global warming, ecosystem monitoring, deep-sea exploration, marine new energy and new technologies. In summary, Canada’s research situations and development trends may provide a useful reference to China’s development of the marine industry. 相似文献
4.
海洋正在经历变暖和酸化等人类活动引发的全球变化的影响,而深海沉积储存着地球演变历史时期由自然因素驱动过去全球变化的详细档案,通过探究其现今和过去全球变化过程,能够揭示全球变化的特征和规律,为预测未来变化提供依据。近年来在该领域的突出研究进展,是针对社会选择的未来排放轨迹,在深海记录中都能够找到相应的类似情形,用于评估未来地球系统各种变化的过程和后果。其中,以Dansgaard-Oeschger变化为代表的千年尺度事件、以厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)为代表的十年尺度气候变化事件,是最接近现今地球变暖的快速气候变化场景。地球系统的发展轨迹目前正处于人类排放温室气体的“热室地球”路径的起点上,如果地球超过了这个“临界点”,它将沿着一条不可逆的道路进入“热室地球”状态,另一种路径则是通向“稳定地球”状态。深海沉积档案中的类似情形能够为社会选择未来排放的轨迹提供重要参考。全球变化研究面临的重大挑战是重新认识其关键过程的理论机制。以海洋变暖和酸化影响硅藻和颗石藻的海洋生物泵过程为例,传统知识认为酸化有利于硅藻建造,但最新的围隔实验研究却发现酸化大幅减少全球硅藻输出;传统知识认为酸化导致海洋生物钙化危机,但近期针对中生代大洋缺氧事件的黑色页岩研究,发现颗石藻的碳酸钙输出在海洋酸化期间大幅增加。这些颠覆性的认识严重挑战了传统全球变化某些关键过程的理论体系。 相似文献
5.
Analysis on Marine Science and Technology Strategy and Key Layout of Japan and the Inspirations to China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Basic Ocean Law (BOL) and Basic Ocean Plan (BLP) are important guarantee for the maritime strategy of Japan, which has established a complete policy system for the development of marine science and technology. On the other hand, the Japanese Government has started some major marine strategies and plans to promote the BLP. In this paper, the marine science and technology plans launched by the Japanese Government and its participation in the international cooperative research projects were introduced. The research of Japan Marine Science and Technology Center and the University of Tokyo Institute of Oceanography in the long-term planning and focus on the layout features, deep sea research technology layout, contents and advanced equipment were analyzed. At last, some recommendations for China’s development on marine science and technology were proposed, such as strengthening the legislation work and process, carrying out research and development of marine infrastructure with independent intellectual property rights, actively participating in international large-scale ocean plan, improving the discourse right and enhancing national maritime awareness and suggestions and so on. 相似文献
6.
The disastrous effects of numerous winter storms on the marine environment in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea during the
last decade show that wind waves generated by strong winds actually represent natural hazards and require high quality wave
forecast systems as warning tools to avoid losses due to the impact of rough seas. Hence, the operational wave forecast system
running at the German Weather Service including a regional wave model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is checked extensively
whether it provides reasonable wave forecasts, especially for periods of extraordinary high sea states during winter storms.
For two selected extreme storm events that induced serious damage in the area of interest, comprehensive comparisons between
wave measurements and wave model forecast data are accomplished. Spectral data as well as integrated parameters are considered,
and the final outcome of the corresponding comparisons and statistical analysis is encouraging. Over and above the capability
to provide good short-term forecast results, the regional wave model is able to predict extreme events as severe winter storms
connected with extraordinary high waves already about 2 days in advance. Therefore, it represents an appropriate warning tool
for offshore activities and coastal environment. 相似文献
7.
全球非常规页岩层系油气资源丰富,富有机质页岩主要沉积在劳亚构造域和特提斯构造域的上侏罗统、渐新统—中新统、白垩系和上泥盆统4套页岩层系内。交汇分析北美典型页岩油区块产量与Ro数据关系,提出Ro为0.7%作为低熟页岩油和中高熟页岩油的界限,系统评价了全球116个盆地157套页岩层系中高熟页岩油、低熟页岩油技术可采资源量约2 512亿t,主要分布在北美洲、南美洲、北非和俄罗斯,以前陆盆地中新界、克拉通盆地古生界、裂谷盆地和被动大陆边缘盆地的中生界为主。海相页岩油受显生宙以来的海侵影响,富集在稳定克拉通和前陆等类型盆地中,具大面积稳定分布、成熟度适中等特征;陆相页岩油受暖室期气候影响,主要在坳陷、断陷等类型盆地中发育,以微纳米级无机孔隙和微页理裂缝为主要储渗空间通道,具有沉积相横向变化大、“甜点区段”局部富集等特征。中国石油工业正经历从“陆相页岩生油”向“陆相页岩产油”转变,初步形成源岩油气“进源找油”地质理论、陆相页岩油高效勘探及低成本开发技术体系,推动中国陆相页岩油取得重要突破。着力加强应用基础理论研究与关键技术攻关,构建地质-工程一体化模式,... 相似文献
8.
与全球变化有关的几个北极海洋地质问题 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
极地区域是全球变化研究的重点区域 ,在北极地区与全球变化有关的地质问题主要是北极地区的海陆变化对全球变化的影响 ,以及全球变化在地层中的记录。这涉及到北极形态变化及与其它大洋沟通的水道开闭情况 ,地形起伏对大气、大洋环流的影响 ,地壳升降与海平面变化对河流流量和海岸稳定性的影响 ,气体水合物及有机碳等变化对全球碳循环的影响 ,以及这些影响与气候变化信息在极地沉积物中的记录。文章在对上述影响及海洋地质研究状况进行探讨后 ,又简要介绍了中国的首次北极考察海洋地质研究状况 相似文献
9.
将国际上通用的SWAN波浪数值模式应用到渤海,以检验其适应性。通过对由风引起的波浪的增长和耗散作用源函数的实验研究,发现SWAN中所采用的Phillips线性增长部分的比例系数和波浪成长有较大的关系,此比例系数随摩擦速度变化(原模式取此系数为一常数)。基于模式试验,引入了一个新的Phillips线性增长项公式,并且利用3个风过程对模式的改进进行了验证。3个风过程的计算结果和实测值比较表明,计算结果在3个过程当中都得到了明显的改进。 相似文献
10.
Ivica Vilibić Hrvoje Kalinić Hrvoje Mihanović Simone Cosoli Martina Tudor Nedjeljka žagar Blaž Jesenko 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(1):115-131
We performed a number of sensitivity experiments by applying a mapping technique, self-organizing maps (SOM) method, to the surface current data measured by high-frequency (HF) radars in the northern Adriatic and surface winds modelled by two state-of-the-art mesoscale meteorological models, the Aladin (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational) and the Weather and Research Forecasting models. Surface current data used for the SOM training were collected during a period in which radar coverage was the highest: between February and November 2008. Different pre-processing techniques, such as removal of tides and low-pass filtering, were applied to the data in order to test the sensitivity of characteristic patterns and the connectivity between different SOM solutions. Topographic error did not exceed 15 %, indicating the applicability of the SOM method to the data. The largest difference has been obtained when comparing SOM patterns originating from unprocessed and low-pass filtered data. Introduction of modelled winds in joint SOM analyses stabilized the solutions, while sensitivity to wind forcing coming from the two different meteorological models was found to be small. Such a low sensitivity is considered to be favourable for creation of an operational ocean forecasting system based on neural networks, HF radar measurements and numerical weather prediction mesoscale models. 相似文献
11.
This study presents the evaluation of 1 year of operational lightning forecasts provided for Europe, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a cloud-top height-based lightning parameterization scheme. Three different convective parameterization schemes were employed for parameterizing sub-grid cloud-top heights and consequently driving the lightning scheme. Triggering of the lightning scheme was controlled by means of a model-resolved microphysics-based masking filter, while the formulation for deriving lightning flash rates was also modified, assuming a single “marine” equation instead of the original equations discriminating between continental and marine lightning. Gridded lightning observations were used for evaluating model performance on a dichotomous decision basis. Analysis showed that the lightning scheme is sensitive to the parameterization of convection. In particular, the Kain–Fritsch convective scheme was found to outperform the Grell–Devenyi and Grell–Freitas schemes, showing a statistically significant better performance with respect to lightning prediction. This was most evident during the warm season, while smaller differences among the schemes were recorded during the cold season. Further, for all examined convective schemes, it was found that the application of the masking filter is desirable for improving model performance in terms of lightning forecasting. Last, the reported results revealed that the refinement of the formulation of the lightning parameterization scheme, adhering to a “global” marine equation instead of distinguishing between land and sea lightning, may be necessary in order to obtain reliable lightning forecasts. 相似文献
12.
海洋是生命的摇篮、资源的宝库和国家安全的屏障,是未来人类可持续发展的重要战略空间。到目前为止,广袤深邃的海洋只有5%的区域被人类探索,加快海洋科技创新、提高海洋资源开发能力、保护海洋生态环境是实现“关心海洋、认识海洋、经略海洋”的根本,事关国家发展的命脉。海洋问题的复杂性使其无法通过单一学科的研究得以解决。目前,我国海洋科学的研究已逐步从过去的跟跑阶段进入并跑阶段,但原始创新能力明显不足。本文回顾分析了我国海洋科学领域的研究进展与发展态势,对标找出与世界先进国家的差距,展望了今后的发展方向,指出围绕海洋多尺度相互作用与气候变化、健康海洋、海洋生命过程、跨圈层流固耦合、快速变化的极地系统、海岸带可持续发展等重大科学前沿,加强顶层设计和战略布局,开展跨尺度、跨圈层的多学科交叉研究,组织并发起我国主导的国际大科学计划,从而显著提升我国在海洋科学研究领域的国际影响力,切实提高保障国家安全和服务社会经济发展需求的能力,为建设海洋强国、构建人类命运共同体提供重要科技支撑。 相似文献
13.
大洋钻探与全球变化(二)——从海洋角度研究第四纪古全球变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
海洋在第四纪全球气候和环境的变化中起着至关重要的作用，一方面，海洋沉积记录了大量第四纪古全球变化的信息，特别是可提供古球变化中高分辨率的短期气候事件的记录，另一方面，无论是全球性大洋环流，生物和化学的变化，还是区域性西太平洋边缘海浅水陆架的出没，这些海洋事件都可能是许多第四纪古全球变化现象的原因之所在。因此，从海洋角度研究第四纪古全球变化，已成为当前古全球变化和国际古海洋学研究的重点。在这方面，深 相似文献
14.
针对古生代中国中西部华北、华南和塔里木三大陆块在全球洋-陆格局中的古地理位置还存在的争议问题,本论文以国际最新的古地理位置重建研究方法和思路,在对中国三大陆块盆地(鄂尔多斯、四川和塔里木盆地)古生界钻井岩心的古地磁实测研究、全球古生代古地磁数据收集与有效性筛选处理、全球主要地质事件约束等多参数融合分析的基础上,采用最新的 GPlates 板块重建方法,对中国华北、华南和塔里木三大陆块在全球洋-陆格局中的古地理位置进行了重建和定位。研究结果表明:古生代三大陆块主要在全球 ±30° 之间的南北中低纬度之间迁移;三大陆块在古生代至少发生了 3 次不同的顺时针旋转和方位角转换;三大陆块运移速率至少经历了 3 次以上不同高、低速度间的转换与变化过程;响应于古生代全球洋-陆形成与演化,中国三大陆块古构造格局总体上经历了洋盆扩张下的“多岛洋”离散、俯冲碰撞下的离散-汇聚并存、俯冲消减下的差异汇聚隆升、新旧洋盆转换下的差异汇聚-离散、拼合与地幔柱控制下的差异汇聚-离散内部拉张的差异性演变过程。古生代中国三大陆块在全球洋-陆格局中的位置与差异性演变,奠定了中国三大陆块古生代不同性质盆地的形成与演化、不同层系油气烃源、储集原始物质差异性发育的基础。 相似文献
15.
Madhav L. Khandekar 《Natural Hazards》1994,9(1-2):125-153
The Grand Banks and the Scotian Shelf regions of the Canadian Atlantic often experience strong winds and high waves associated with the passage of intense storms during the winter months of December to March. These storm waves are identified as a major hazard to shipping, offshore exploration and other marine activities in eastern Canada.In this study, an operational spectral ocean wave model has been used to simulate sea-states associated with selected storm events in the Canadian Atlantic. The wave model operates on a grid (with grid spacing of about 111 km) which covers a major portion of the north Atlantic. A nested fine grid (with grid spacing of about 37 km) has been designed which covers the shelf regions of the Canadian Atlantic. The model employs deep-water physics over the coarse grid while over the fine grid shallow-water processes as represented by wave refraction, wave shoaling, bottom friction and wave number scaling are included. The wave model also includes, as an optional package, the third-generation source terms as represented by the nonlinear wave-wave interaction terms.For two selected storm events, the model generated sea-states are evaluated against available buoy data as well as against hand analyzed operational wave height charts over the northwest Atlantic. The evaluation shows that the various versions of the model can simulate the observed sea-states, reasonably well. The utility of the wave model in providing numerical guidance for offshore activities is briefly discussed. 相似文献
16.
海洋硅循环是海洋生物地球化学循环的关键过程之一,对调控全球二氧化碳浓度、海洋酸碱度和多种元素(氮、磷、铁、铝等)的循环具有重要作用。在当今气候变化和人类活动影响日益增强的背景下,硅循环与“生物泵”及碳循环的紧密联系,是其成为地球科学领域研究热点的主要原因。海洋中硅的外部来源主要为河流、地下水、大气沉降、海底玄武岩风化作用和海底热液输送5个途径,在全球气温变暖趋势的影响下,极地冰川融化成为高纬度海域不可忽视的硅源。生物硅在沉积物中的埋藏、硅质海绵和生物硅的反风化作用是重要的海洋硅移除过程。海洋硅循环过程复杂,受生物(生物吸收、降解)、物理(吸附、溶解)和化学(矿化分解和反风化作用)多重因素的影响,针对海洋硅循环关键过程的研究有助于综合评估海洋硅的“源-汇”和收支。本文总结了海洋硅循环的主要过程及海洋硅的收支,根据国际和国内研究现状讨论了当前海洋硅循环研究中面临的主要问题和挑战。现有研究成果显示,海洋硅的外源输入和输出通量比以往的评估分别增加了2.4和2.2倍。在短时间尺度内(<8 ka),全球海洋中硅的收支大致平衡,海洋硅循环基本处于稳定状态。气候变化和人类活动导致河流输送至陆架边缘海的硅通量发生变化,可能影响硅藻等海洋浮游植物种群结构,是未来海洋硅循环研究需要关注的问题之一。陆架边缘海较高沉积速率和强烈的反风化作用提高了该区域生物硅的埋藏效率,准确评估该区域生物硅的埋藏通量仍是亟须解决的难题。目前的研究评估了全球海洋浮游硅藻、硅质海绵以及放射虫生产力,而海洋底栖硅藻生产力的贡献受到忽视,未来需要关注底栖硅藻对生物硅的贡献及其在海洋硅的生物地球化学过程中的作用。 相似文献
17.
国土空间生态保护与修复是实现美丽中国、关系中华民族永续发展的根本大计。本文采用文献资料综合分析法、系统回顾法、实证分析法、类比分析法、趋势外推法、政策环评等相结合的方法开展了一系列工作:从国家方略、顶层设计两个方面,梳理了国土空间生态保护与修复的脉络;从国土空间生态修复规划、技术路经与方法、野外台站和科研样地等角度,阐明了国土空间生态保护与修复研究的方法论;举例辨析了国土空间生态保护与修复的若干“伪生态”和“假技术问题”;指出了国土空间生态保护与修复发展的战略方针、战略目标、战略方向、战略原则、战略重点、战略对策;从生态保护与修复的重大科学问题和热点、语境分析、分区分类、差异化、生态补偿机制等5个方面,提出了助推中国国土空间生态保护与修复需要的科技支撑;讨论了“两屏三带”、科学推进生态修复,以及管理逻辑与技术逻辑融合问题。研究结果为破解国土空间“整体保护、系统修复与综合治理”过程中生态要素的综合性与管理事权的部门化、生态空间的连续性与区域的政区化、生态工程的长期性与行政管理的届次化三大矛盾,提供了科学依据。 相似文献
18.
Ocean is a highly complex and nonlinear dynamical system. The inevitable errors in both data and numerical models lead to uncertainties in ocean numerical prediction. By understanding features and properties in the ocean on multiple scales, it is important to quantify and estimate the predictability of the ocean, and analyze the reasons and mechanism of error growth. The efforts focus on investigating the method to reduce the uncertainties and errors in forecasting and increase the time limit of ocean predictability. The advances will result in improved marine forecasting models and forecasting skill. Understanding limitations and identifying the research needed to increase accuracy will lead to fundamental progress in ocean forecast, which is of great significance. The present study described and illustrated the mechanics and computations involved in modeling and predicting uncertainties for ocean prediction and its modern applications. Firstly, it discussed the fundamental concept and classification of the ocean predictability. The research status of ocean predictability is introduced including the dynamics methodologies and the ocean ensemble prediction. Three of the dynamical computational methodologies including the singular vector, Lyapunov exponent and bred vector method were introduced. Three ocean ensemble prediction methods including initial condition ensemble, multi-model ensemble and atmospheric forcing ensemble were described and illustrated. Finally, this paper gave a future prospective of ocean predictability and its application. 相似文献
19.
本项研究得到国家“十三五”重点研发计划支持,系“深地资源勘探开采专项”2017年启动的重点项目之一,由中国地质调查局中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所牵头,来自自然资源部、中国科学院、教育部、大型石油国企等10家骨干单位以及多家协作单位参加,联合开展协同创新研究,充分体现“产研学用”密切融合。本项研究聚焦“特提斯东段中生代(三叠纪、侏罗纪)海相成钾作用与后期改造、青藏高原北部柴达木盆地深层富钾卤水迁移-分异-汇聚成矿机制”的关键科学问题和“深部含钾盐系‘双复杂’高精度地震成像技术、深部钾盐矿层(富钾卤水层)测井识别与地震预测技术”的关键技术问题,以柴达木西部和川东北两个重点成钾区为资源基地落脚点,兼顾其他含钾盆地研究,建立三维地质模型和成矿模型,完善海、陆相成钾理论,形成3 000 m以浅钾盐勘探成套技术能力,综合评价深部钾盐资源潜力,实施异常验证钻探,新发现1个大型钾盐资源基地,值得综合评价的有利成钾远景区3~4处,实现深部钾盐找矿突破和增储示范。值得强调的是,只有立足国内,突破海相,在中西部大中型叠合盆地古代海相蒸发岩地层中找到大规模海相可溶性固体钾盐矿床,方能从根本上扭转中国钾盐资源严重短缺的被动局面。令人欣慰的是,通过近10年的艰苦努力,我国海相钾盐取得了一系列成矿理论新认识和钾盐找矿新发现:创新提出了滇西南“二层楼”成钾模式,指出侏罗纪海相找钾新方向;在川东北宣汉普光地区发现三叠系海相可溶性“新型杂卤石钾盐矿”,开拓了四川盆地海相找钾新领域和新方向;在新疆库车地区发现埋深超5 000 m的钾石盐矿层,取得了库车坳陷海相找钾的实质性进展;创新提出“W型复底锅”成钾模式,在陕北奥陶纪海相盐盆发现厚层钾石盐矿化段,取得古陆表海型钾盐找矿重要新进展。至此,中国海相钾盐找矿崭露了突破的曙光。如何在这些新发现的基础上,进一步加大投入、深入研究,取得海相可溶性钾盐找矿的实质性突破,落实建成若干大型以上海相钾盐资源基地,将是“十四五”及以后时期中国钾盐的主攻方向。 相似文献
20.
Ping Zhu 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):577-591
Hurricane wind damage constitutes the largest percentage of catastrophic insured losses in the US. Yet the complicated wind
structures and their changes are not fully understood and, thus, have not been considered in current risk catastrophic models.
To obtain realistic landfall hurricane surface winds, a large eddy simulation (LES) framework in a weather forecasting mode
has been developed from a multiple nested Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to explicitly simulate a spectrum of
scales from large-scale background flow, hurricane vortex, mesoscale organizations, down to fine-scale turbulent eddies in
a unified system. The unique WRF-LES enables the high resolution data to be generated in a realistic environment as a hurricane
evolves. In this paper, a simulation of the landfalling Hurricane Katrina is presented to demonstrate various features of
the WRF-LES. It shows that the localized damaging winds are caused by the large eddy circulations generated in the hurricane
boundary layer. With a sufficient computational power, WRF-LES has the potential to be developed into the next generation
operational public wind-field model for hurricane wind damage mitigation. 相似文献