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1.
Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development. 相似文献
2.
全球环境变化与中国国家安全 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
20世纪90年代以来,安全概念的内涵有了重大扩展。全球环境变化作为威胁人类安全的因素之一,对国家安全和社会的发展构成了新的挑战。由全球环境变化所引发的国家安全问题一方面直接与全球环境问题相联系,另一方面是通过国际事务中的冲突表现出来的。中国未来发展面临全球环境变化的严峻挑战。中国的全球环境变化人文因素研究需要关注可能对中国国家安全产生深远影响的重大环境变化问题,重视科学地评估中国自然和社会经济系统对全球环境变化影响的脆弱性,积极推动中国国家风险管理体系建设,将全球环境变化问题纳入风险管理之列,为我国可持续发展、和谐社会构建做出应有的贡献。 相似文献
3.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
4.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
5.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
6.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
7.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
8.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
9.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
10.
海洋正在经历变暖和酸化等人类活动引发的全球变化的影响,而深海沉积储存着地球演变历史时期由自然因素驱动过去全球变化的详细档案,通过探究其现今和过去全球变化过程,能够揭示全球变化的特征和规律,为预测未来变化提供依据。近年来在该领域的突出研究进展,是针对社会选择的未来排放轨迹,在深海记录中都能够找到相应的类似情形,用于评估未来地球系统各种变化的过程和后果。其中,以Dansgaard-Oeschger变化为代表的千年尺度事件、以厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)为代表的十年尺度气候变化事件,是最接近现今地球变暖的快速气候变化场景。地球系统的发展轨迹目前正处于人类排放温室气体的“热室地球”路径的起点上,如果地球超过了这个“临界点”,它将沿着一条不可逆的道路进入“热室地球”状态,另一种路径则是通向“稳定地球”状态。深海沉积档案中的类似情形能够为社会选择未来排放的轨迹提供重要参考。全球变化研究面临的重大挑战是重新认识其关键过程的理论机制。以海洋变暖和酸化影响硅藻和颗石藻的海洋生物泵过程为例,传统知识认为酸化有利于硅藻建造,但最新的围隔实验研究却发现酸化大幅减少全球硅藻输出;传统知识认为酸化导致海洋生物钙化危机,但近期针对中生代大洋缺氧事件的黑色页岩研究,发现颗石藻的碳酸钙输出在海洋酸化期间大幅增加。这些颠覆性的认识严重挑战了传统全球变化某些关键过程的理论体系。 相似文献
11.
全球变化及其相关科学概念的发展与比较 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
在回顾全球变化科学产生和发展历史的基础上,针对当前全球变化、全球气候变化、全球环境变化、地球系统科学在概念和内涵上存在混淆的情况,就全球变化等概念的内涵、产生的过程及其联系进行了综述、分析和比较。提出全球变化是指对人类现在和未来生存与发展有重要的直接或潜在影响、由自然因素或人类因素驱动在全球范围内所发生的地球环境的变化,或与全球环境有重要关联的区域环境的变化。气候变化和全球环境变化的研究范畴包含在全球变化之中,但又各有其关注领域和交叉部分;而地球系统科学是解决全球变化问题的科学理念、思维方式和解决方案。] 相似文献
12.
Global landslide and avalanche hotspots 总被引：6，自引：7，他引：6
Farrokh Nadim Oddvar Kjekstad Pascal Peduzzi Christian Herold Christian Jaedicke 《Landslides》2006,3(2):159-173
Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km2 was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales. 相似文献
13.
Climate change is one of the most active research fields currently, which has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In order to better understand the development situation and research status of international climate change science, in this paper we took the SSCI and SCI databases as data sources, collected the relevant literatures since 1900 based on the key words related to climate change, and made some statistics and analysis of the literatures of the past one hundred years to reveal the development process of climate change research as well as the development and evolution of its research topics and hot spots. The results showed that the climate change research began in the late 18 th century and early 19 th century, and the academic debate about global warming and global cooling started in the early 1970s. The international programs and projects led by a range of international organizations and intergovernmental bodies have contributed significantly to the rapid development of climate change research. The United States and the United Kingdom have long been the core countries of climate change research. The proportion of Chinese papers has risen rapidly in the last decade. The intensity and scope of scientific research cooperation are constantly expanding. Current research focuses on climate model/modeling, climate simulation, climate policy, climate sensitivity, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and rate of climate change. 相似文献
14.
地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。 相似文献
15.
近20年来气候模式的发展与模式比较计划 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8
20世纪80年代以来，全球气候观测系统的不断完善、国际大型外场观测试验的成功实施以及高性能计算机的飞速发展，为气候模式的迅猛发展提供了基础和条件。近20年来气候模式的复杂程度和模拟能力得到了显著的提高，目前已成为研究全球和区域气候的形成及变异、气候系统各圈层之间的相互作用以及全球变化等的有力工具。对气候模式（包括大气环流模式、陆面过程模式、海洋环流模式以及区域气候模式）的主要发展进行综合评述，并简要介绍了目前世界上一些主要的模式比较研究计划。 相似文献
16.
全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法,最后,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。 相似文献
17.
Zhou Hongjian 《地球科学进展》2017,32(7):688-695
A brief introduction to the Fifth Session of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which was held in Cancun, Mexico, organized by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) and hosted by the Government of Mexico from 22 May to 26 May 2017, was firstly provided. Combined with “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, and related work on natural disaster risk reduction at global, regional, country and local scales, some hot-topics and prospects of global platform for disaster risk reduction were put forward. Some findings were concluded, consisting of understanding disaster risk, disaster risk governance, building and enhancing resilience to disasters, coherence between the Sendai Framework, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). Implementing the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through cross-sectoral collaboration, removing barriers and promoting public-private cooperation in DRR and other types of partnership among multi-stakeholders will become the main force pattern of DRR in the near future. Large-scale disaster risk governance caused by multi-hazards (disaster cluster), disaster chain and disaster compound will be the main trend in scientific research of DRR. Building regional disaster risk reduction platform (e.g. the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road) and sharing the technologies and information of disaster risk reduction will be the main contents of DRR practices. Building and optimization of institutional mechanisms on DRR will be the trend of DRR idea. Improving and enhancing the support to communities, vulnerable groups and locals on DRR will be the main trend in DRR achievements’ application and demonstration in China. 相似文献
18.
We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target. 相似文献
19.
在全球气候变化和城市化进程不断加快的背景下,城市洪涝灾害频发,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡问题。对近年来中国典型城市洪涝灾害进行系统整理介绍,说明洪涝灾害带来的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。风险评估作为一种非工程性防洪措施,是城市洪涝风险管理的首要工作,精确、高效的把握洪灾过程等特征可以为防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。对城市洪涝风险评估与分区的概念和内容进行系统梳理,常用的风险评估方法有数理统计法、不确定性分析法、遥感影像评估法、指标体系评估法、情景模拟评估法；风险分区常用方法有阈值法、经验公式法和物理机制法。论述了城市洪涝风险评估与分区常用方法的应用范围、优缺点及其发展前景。 相似文献
20.
国际土地利用-土地覆盖变化的环境影响研究 总被引：93，自引：5，他引：88
土地利用－土地覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要方面之一。土地利用－土地覆盖变化对大氧化学性质及过程、气候、水文、土壤沉积物、生物多样性、生产力等都产生重要的影响。着重综述了轩际全球变化研究领域中重要的研究焦点之一－土地利用和土地覆盖变化的环境影响研究取得的进展以及未来的发展方向。 相似文献