共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Ramdane Alkama M. Kageyama G. Ramstein O. Marti P. Ribstein D. Swingedouw 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(7-8):855-869
The presence of large ice sheets over North America and North Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) strongly impacted Northern
hemisphere river pathways. Despite the fact that such changes may significantly alter the freshwater input to the ocean, modified
surface hydrology has never been accounted for in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model simulations of the LGM
climate. To reconstruct the LGM river routing, we use the ICE-5G LGM topography. Because of the uncertainties in the extent
of the Fennoscandian ice sheet in the Eastern part of the Kara Sea, we consider two more realistic river routing scenarios.
The first scenario is characterised by the presence of an ice dammed lake south of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and corresponds
to the ICE-5G topography. This lake is fed by the Ob and Yenisei rivers. In the second scenario, both these rivers flow directly
into the Arctic Ocean, which is more consistent with the latest QUEEN ice sheet margin reconstructions. We study the impact
of these changes on the LGM climate as simulated by the IPSL_CM4 model and focus on the overturning thermohaline circulation.
A comparison with a classical LGM simulation performed using the same model and modern river basins as designed in the PMIP2
exercise leads to the following conclusions: (1) The discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean is increased by 2,000 m3/s between 38° and 54°N in both simulations that contain LGM river routing, compared to the classical LGM experiment. (2)
The ice dammed lake is shown to have a weak impact, relative to the classical simulation, both in terms of climate and ocean
circulation. (3) In contrast, the North Atlantic deep convection and meridional overturning are weaker than during the classical
LGM run if the Ob and Yenisei rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean. The total discharge into the Arctic Ocean is increased
by 31,000 m3/s, relative to the classical LGM simulation. Consequentially, northward ocean heat transport is weaker, and sea ice more
extensive, in better agreement with existing proxy data. 相似文献
2.
The aim of this article is to determine the main sources of the variability of large West African river discharges during the years 1951–2000. The analysis is based on river discharge simulations of ORCHIDEE Land-Surface Model forced by NCC (NCEP Corrected by CRU) over this period. In a first part, an analysis of the partitionning of precipitation in the different basins is given. It is first shown that total runoff is more variable and better correlated to precipitation than evapotranspiration over every basin on annual means. Then the more complex link between evapotranspiration and precipitation is investigated through correlation and regression analyses. Over the “dry” (soudano-sahelian) catchments, evapotranspiration is the most variable and mainly correlated to the annual precipitation. Over the “humid” (equatorial) catchment, it is mainly correlated to the season length and does not depend on other characteristics of the precipitation. Over the “intermediate” (guinean) catchments, annual precipitation and season length both play a role, along with the average intensity of rainfall events, and other characteristics such as the number of long breaks in the rainy season. A second part focuses on the way ORCHIDEE reproduces the variability of river discharges for the years 1951–2000. It is shown that relative anomalies are correctly simulated by ORCHIDEE forced by NCC over every catchment without taking into account any land-use change. Moreover, no significant difference is found in the accuracy with which ORCHIDEE simulates the humid (1953–1970) and the dry (1973–1990) periods over two selected catchments. This implies that the impact of land-use changes was much less important than the impact of precipitation changes over the years 1951–2000 in large West African catchments. 相似文献
3.
4.
Summary Climatic fluctuations across Africa are analysed from two century+ records of rainfall at Durban, South Africa and the Nile
River flow in southern Egypt. A wavelet transform analysis is applied to the rainfall record to determine the strength of
intra-seasonal to decadal rhythms. The annual cycle constitutes 33% of variability, whilst 2.3–4 year cycles account for 10%
of the variance. A contingency analysis of flood events reveals a bimodal character with peaks in November and March. The
Durban rainfall time series is compared with remote environmental variables. Close relationships are found with the meridional
gradient of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and the southern oscillation index. Comparisons are made between the southern
summer rainfall at Durban (November–March) and northern summer Nile River flow (July–October). Cross-wavelet analysis of the
two records indicates a matching of frequency in quasi-biennial and El Ni?o frequency bands. This suggests that the uptake
of ‘teleconnections’ governing African climate occurs in a widespread manner.
Received February 25, 2000 相似文献
5.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):139-153
Abstract Implementation and validation of a flow routing scheme for the North American domain of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is described. A variable velocity flow routing algorithm is used to transport runoff from the land surface to the continental edges and provide freshwater flux forcing for the oceans. The flow routing scheme uses Manning's equation to estimate flow velocities for river channels whose cross‐sections are assumed to be rectangular. Discretization of major North American river basins and their flow directions are obtained at the polar stereographic resolution of the CRCM using 5‐minute global river flow direction data as a template. In the absence of observation‐based gridded estimates of runoff, model runoff estimates from a global simulation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model (forced with observationbased meteorological data) are used to validate the flow routing scheme. Model results show that the inclusion of flow routing improves the comparison with observation‐based streamflow estimates when compared to the unrouted runoff. Monthly comparison of simulated streamflow with observation‐based estimates, and basin‐wide averaged flow velocities, suggests that the flow routing scheme performs satisfactorily. 相似文献
6.
In this paper,a relatively systematic climatological research on the onset of the Asian tropical summer monsoon(ATSM)was carried out.Based on a unified index of the ATSM onset,the advance of the whole ATSM was newly made and then the view that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and the middle and southern Indo-China Peninsula was further documented,which was in the 26th pentad(about May 10),then over the South China Sea(SCS)in the 28th pentad.It seems that the ATSM onset over the two regions belongs to the different stages of the same monsoon system.Then,the onset mechanism of ATSM was further investigated by the comprehensive analysis on the land-sea thermodynamic contrast,intraseasonal oscillation,and so on,and the several key factors which influence the ATSM onset were put forward.Based on these results,a possible climatological schematic map that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean,the Indo-China Peninsula,and the SCS was also presented, namely seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation was the background of the monsoon onset;the enhancement and northward advance of the convections,the sensible heating and latent heating over the Indo-China Peninsula and its neighboring areas,the dramatic deepening of the India-Burma trough,and the westerly warm advection over the eastern Tibetan Plateau were the major driving forces of the summer monsoon onset,which made the meridional gradient of the temperature firstly reverse over this region and ascending motion develop.Then the tropical monsoon and precipitation rapidly developed and enhanced. The phase-lock of the 30-60-day and 10-20-day low frequency oscillations originated from different sources was another triggering factor for the summer monsoon onset.It was just the common effect of these factors that induced the ATSM earliest onset over this region. 相似文献
7.
A photochemical model of the atmosphere constitutes a non–linear, non–autonomous dynamical system, enforced by the Earth’s rotation. Some studies have shown that the region of the mesopause tends towards non–linear responses such as period-doubling cascades and chaos. In these studies, simple approximations for the diurnal variations of the photolysis rates are assumed. The goal of this article is to investigate what happens if the more realistic, calculated photolysis rates are introduced. It is found that, if the usual approximations—sinusoidal and step fiunctions—are assumed, the responses of the system are similar: it converges to a 2–day periodic solution. If the more realistic, calculated diurnal cycle is introduced, a new 4–day subharmonic appear. 相似文献
8.
9.
The ordinary multidimensional reductive perturbation method is generalized so as to apply to the general case including the dissipative factor. With this the corresponding Cubic-Schrbdinger equation is deduced, and by the preliminary study of its solution, it shows that it is more admissible to consider atmospheric meso-scale systems as the nonlinear Cubic-Schrbdinger waves.With suitable boundary and initial conditions, the Cubic-Schrodinger equation is numerically integrated so as to investigate the possible dynamic mechanism as well as the impacts of the nonlinear action, turbulent friction and topogrphy to the formation of the LLJ. The results indicate that the downward transfer of the momentum and the effect of the surface friction are responsible for the concentration of the momentum in the layer between 850 and 700 hPa. The location of the horizontal concentration of momentum depends on the propagation of momentum, in the process the inertia-gravity internal wave is very important, whereas turbule 相似文献
10.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):79-97
Abstract Mackenzie River discharge was at a record low in water year (WY) 1995 (October 1994 to September 1995), was near average in WY 1996, and was at a record high in WY 1997. The record high discharge in WY 1997, with above average flow each month, was followed by a record high flow in May 1998, then a sharp decline. Through diagnosing these changing flows and their expression in the Beaufort Sea via synthesis of observations and model output, this study provides insight into the nature of the Arctic's freshwater system. The low discharge in WY 1995 manifests negative anomalies in P‐E and precipitation, recycled summer precipitation, and dry surface conditions immediately prior to the water year. The complex hydrograph for WY 1996 reflects a combination of spring soil moisture recharge, buffering by rising lake levels, positive P‐E anomalies in summer, and a massive release of water held in storage by Bennett Dam. The record high discharge in WY 1997 manifests the dual effects of reduced buffering by lakes and positive P‐E anomalies for most of the year. With reduced buffering, only modest P‐E the following spring led to a record discharge in May 1998. As simulated with a coupled ice‐ocean model, the record low discharge in WY 1995 contributed to a negative freshwater anomaly on the Mackenzie shelf lasting throughout the winter of 1995/96. High discharge from July–October 1996 contributed approximately 20% to a positive freshwater anomaly forming in the Beaufort Sea in the autumn of that year. The remainder was associated with reduced autumn/winter ice growth, strong ice melt the previous summer, and positive P‐E anomalies over the ocean itself. Starting in autumn 1997 and throughout 1998, the upper ocean became more saline owing to sea‐ice growth. 相似文献
11.
In order to study the characteristics of cold frontal motion over the arbitrary topography, the velocity of cold frontal movement is derived by using the one layer shallow-water model. The results show that there exist the retardation in upwind side and rapid descent in the lee slope when the cold front crosses the topography. 相似文献
12.
The possibility to use the observations of the total ozone values in the atmosphere (TO) in the end of polar winters as the
indicator of the cold accumulation in the troposphere and the type of its circulation is considered. The influence of TO over
polar regions on the approach of early and late circulation reconstructions in the stratosphere and the following weather
type in spring-summer season is concluded. 相似文献
13.
A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is used to study the stability and sensitivity of motions on smallscale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and linear singular vectors (LSVs) are both obtained numerically and compared in this paper. The results show that CNOPs can capture the nonlinear characteristics of motions in small-scale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere and show great difference from LSVs under the condition that the initial constraint condition is large or the optimization time is not very short or both. Besides, in some basic states, local CNOPs are found. The pattern of LSV is more similar to local CNOP than global CNOP in some cases. The elementary application of the method of CNOP to the Jovian atmosphere helps us to explore the stability of variousscale motions of Jupiter’s atmosphere and to compare the stability of motions in Jupiter’s atmosphere and Earth’s atmosphere further. 相似文献
14.
N. V. Shirshov R. M. Vil’fand P. P. Vasil’ev E. L. Vasil’eva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2014,39(6):416-419
The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the “Baikonur” using the method of central typing that allows increasing the accuracy of operational forecasts. The analysis of climate characteristics needed for constructing the proper statistical model for this area is given using both observational data for recent 25 years and the data of WMO (from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydro-meteorological Information-World Data Center). Computed are the estimates of the accuracy of operational forecasts. 相似文献
15.
Characteristics of the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon and the Importance of Asian-Australian “Land Bridge” 总被引：12，自引：2，他引：12
Based on summarizing previous achievements and using data as long and new as possible, the onset characteristics of Asian summer monsoon and the role of Asian-Australian “land bridge” in the onset of summer monsoon are further discussed. In particular, the earliest onset area of Asian summer monsoon is comparatively analyzed, and the sudden and progressive characteristics of the onset of summer monsoon in different regions are discussed. Furthermore, the relationships among such critical events during the onset of Asian summer monsoon as the splitting of subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the initiation of convection over Indo-China Peninsula, the westward advance, reestablishment of South Asian High, and the rapid northward progression of convection originated from Sumatra in early summer are studied. The important impact of the proper collocation of the latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula and the sensible heating over Indian Peninsula on the splitting of the subtropical high belt, the deepening of BOB trough, the activating of Sri Lanka vortex (twin vortexes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres), and the subsequent onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are emphasized. 相似文献
16.
Predictability of the Atmosphere 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This paper makes a review on the predictability of the atmosphere. The essential problems of predictability theory, i.e., how a deterministic system changes to an undeterministic system (chaos) and how is the opposite (order within chaos), are discussed. Some applications of predictability theory are given. 相似文献
17.
Effect of the Interaction of Different Scale Vortices on the Structure and Motion of Typhoons 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13
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18.
Dynamics of the surface air temperature and amount of precipitation in the Polar, Northern, and Southern Urals in the 20th
century is analyzed. Charts of the temperature distribution in the Urals for the period from 1961 to 2000, taking into account
the relief, are plotted in the geographical informational system on the basis of data of instrumental measurements at meteorological
stations with the use of the multiple regression analysis and raster modeling. The northeastern direction of the warming gradient
and increase of falling precipitations in the period under review is established. Time series of anomalies of the average
annual air temperature and amount of precipitation in the 20th century at three meteorological stations, situated in the Polar,
Northern, and Southern Urals, are analyzed. The tendency of the growth of anomalies of the average annual temperature and
total amount of precipitation is revealed. 相似文献
19.
The simulations were performed using a modified mesoscale model,the Polar MM5,which was adapted for use within polar regions.The objective of the study was to illustrate the skill of the Polar MM5 in simulating atmospheric behavior over the Arctic river basins.Automatic weather station data,global atmospheric analyses,as well as near-surface and upper-air observations were used to verify the simulation. Parallel simulations of the Polar MM5 and the original MM5 within the period 19-29 April 1997 simula- tions revealed that Polar MM5 reproduced better near-surface variables forecasts than the original MM5 for the region located over the North American Arctic regions.The well predicted near-surface temperature and mixing ratio by the Polar MM5 confirmed the modified physical parameterization schemes that were used in this model are appropriate for the Arctic river regions.Then the extended evaluations of the Polar MM5 simulations over both the North American and Eurasian domains during 15 December 2002 to 15 May 2003 were then carried out.The time series plots and statistical analyses from the observations and the Polar MM5 simulations at 16 stations for the near-surface and vertical profiles at 850 hPa and 500 hPa variables were analyzed.The model was found to reproduce the observed atmospheric state both at magnitude and variability with a high degree of accuracy,especially for temperature and near-surface winds,although there was a slight cold bias that existed near the surface. 相似文献
20.
H.G. Leighton 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):43-52
Abstract A model to compute rapidly the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere is described. The model is based partially on the parameterization of Lacis and Hansen and also makes use of the delta‐Eddington method. In addition to absorption by ozone and water vapour, and scattering by air molecules and clouds, the mode1 includes absorption and scattering by aerosols. Good agreement is found in comparison with the Lacis and Hansen parameterization in the absence of clouds and aerosol. The present model represents an improvement in the treatment of scattering by clouds. Its main advantage though, is in its flexibility in allowing for interactions with the atmospheric aerosol. 相似文献