共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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大气可降水量在研究大气辐射和吸收,以及全球的热量输送,尤其是暴雨的预报预测等方面都发挥着重要作用。应用2015年章丘站GPS/MET、微波辐射计和L波段探空3种设备反演的大气可降水量数据,比较了三者之间的偏差特征。结果表明：GPS/MET、微波辐射计和L波段探空3种设备反演的大气可降水量变化趋势一致,但也存在明显的系统偏差,量值从大到小分别是GPS/MET、微波辐射计、L波段探空。三者之间的偏差在春夏秋冬四季的差值都较为稳定;GPS/MET比微波辐射计偏大4.5 mm左右,不会因为季节的改变而明显地增大或减小。但标准差最大是夏季,其次是秋季,冬季最小。由于12：00 UTC水汽含量大于00：00 UTC,造成3种探测手段反演的大气可降水量在12：00 UTC的标准差几乎总是大于00：00 UTC,而相对偏差小于等于00：00 UTC。 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2017,34(7):805-815
Ultraviolet(UV) radiation has significant effects on ecosystems, environments, and human health, as well as atmospheric processes and climate change. Two ultraviolet radiation datasets are described in this paper. One contains hourly observations of UV radiation measured at 40 Chinese Ecosystem Research Network stations from 2005 to 2015. CUV3 broadband radiometers were used to observe the UV radiation, with an accuracy of 5%, which meets the World Meteorology Organization's measurement standards. The extremum method was used to control the quality of the measured datasets. The other dataset contains daily cumulative UV radiation estimates that were calculated using an all-sky estimation model combined with a hybrid model. The reconstructed daily UV radiation data span from 1961 to 2014. The mean absolute bias error and root-mean-square error are smaller than 30% at most stations, and most of the mean bias error values are negative, which indicates underestimation of the UV radiation intensity. These datasets can improve our basic knowledge of the spatial and temporal variations in UV radiation. Additionally, these datasets can be used in studies of potential ozone formation and atmospheric oxidation, as well as simulations of ecological processes. 相似文献
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Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) were measured using a relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique on an above-canopy tower in a temperate forest (Changbai Mountain, Jilin province, China) during the 2010 and 2011 summer seasons. Solar global radiation and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were also measured. Based on PAR energy dynamic balance, an empirical BVOC emission and PAR transfer model was developed that includes the processes of BVOC emissions and PAR transfer above the canopy level, including PAR absorption and consumption, and scattering by gases, liquids, and particles (GLPs). Simulated emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes were in agreement with observations. The averages of the relative estimator biases for the flux were 39.3 % for isoprene, and 27.1 % for monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons, with NMSE (normalized mean square error) values of 0.133 and 0.101, respectively. The observed and simulated mean diurnal variations of isoprene and monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons were evaluated for the validation of the empirical model. Under observed atmospheric conditions, the sensitivity analysis showed that emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes were more sensitive to changes in PAR than to water vapor content or to the magnitude of the scattering factor. The emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes in the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons (from June to September) were estimated using this empirical model along with hourly observational data, with mean hourly emissions of 1.71 and 1.55 mg m?2 h?1 for isoprene, and 0.48 and 0.47 mg m?2 h?1 for monoterpenes in 2010 and 2011, respectively. As formaldehyde (HCHO) is considered as the main oxidation product of isoprene and monoterpenes, it is necessary to investigate the link between HCHO and BVOC emissions. GOME-2 HCHO vertical column densities (VCDs) can be used to estimate BVOC emission fluxes in the Changbai Mountain temperate forest. 相似文献
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利用广州地区1985—1990年的太阳分光辐射的连续观测资料（观测角度为23°11′），研究了广州地区紫外辐射、可见光辐射（光合有效辐射）、近红外辐射的某些特征。结果指出，每年7—10月份各分光辐射及总辐射总量较大。月总辐射中可见光辐射占总辐射的百分比年平均为47.3%，相应的紫外辐射和近红外辐射分别占7.1%和45.6%。文中还分析了晴天条件下分光辐射的变化和1990年紫外辐射变化的某些特征，并分析和讨论了分光辐射与云量、日照时间等因子的相关。 相似文献
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通过对2001—2012年全国23个站实测资料的分析,利用非线性回归法建立了以气温日较差、天文日照百分率和空气污染指数为主导因子的太阳日总辐射模型,这里简称为DSRM-Y模型 (Daily Solar Radiation Model-Y),检验其效果并与已有的DSRM-C模型 (Daily Solar Radiation Model-C) 进行效果比对。结果表明:太阳日总辐射与空气污染指数呈显著负相关,DSRM-Y模型的太阳日总辐射估算值与实测值的散点图以及平均偏差、均方根误差、误差分析均表现出较好的拟合效果。将模型应用于西宁、上海、昆明3个代表站,空气污染指数上升后,3个站太阳日总辐射均呈减少趋势;23个站DSRM-Y模型的均方根误差均小于DSRM-C模型,即DSRM-Y模型的拟合效果好于DSRM-C模型。 相似文献
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利用TIGGE资料集下欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、日本气象厅(JMA)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)、中国气象局(CMA)和英国气象局(UKMO)5个模式预报的结果,对基于卡尔曼滤波的气温和降水的多模式集成预报进行研究。结果表明,卡尔曼滤波方法的预报效果优于消除偏差集合平均(BREM)和单模式的预报,但是对于地面气温和降水,其预报效果也存在一定的差异。在中国区域2 m气温的预报中,卡尔曼滤波的预报结果最优。而对于24 h累积降水预报,尽管卡尔曼滤波在所有量级下的TS评分均优于BREM,但随着预报时效增加,其在大雨及以上量级的TS评分跟最佳单模式UKMO预报相当,改进效果不明显。卡尔曼滤波在地面气温和24 h累积降水每个预报时效下的均方根误差均最优,预报效果更佳且稳定。 相似文献
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This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM) and superensemble (SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean (EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible. 相似文献
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We propose a new model to estimate daily global radiation from daily temperature range measurements. This model combines that of Majumdar et al. (Sol Energy 13(4):383–394, 1972) to estimate clear sky radiation with a Gompertz function to estimate the relation between temperature range and cloud transmittance. Model parameters are estimated from historical weather data: maximum and minimum temperatures and, if available, relative humidity; no other calibration is required. The model was parametrized and validated using 788 weather stations in Mexico. When calibrated using historical humidity data, daily global radiation was estimated with a mean root mean square error of 3.06 MJ m?2 day?1. The model performed well in all situations, except for a few stations around the Gulf of Mexico and in mountain areas. When using estimated humidity, the root mean square error of prediction was only slightly degraded (3.07 MJ m?2 day?1). Possible theoretical basis and applicability of this model to other environments are discussed. 相似文献
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热带气旋强度资料的差异性分析 总被引：16，自引：4，他引：16
通过对比西北太平洋3个主要预报中心(中国气象局(CMA)、日本东京台风中心(RSMC Tokyo)和美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC))的16 a数据,分析了不同来源的热带气旋(TC)强度资料的差异性。结果表明:CMA与RSMCTokyo和JTWC的TC强度均值分别相差0.6和1.7 m/s,均通过1%信度的统计检验,即存在显著差异;3个中心对同一TC确定的强度最大差异超过30 m/s;CMA资料的台风数多于RSMC Tokyo和JTWC,年台风频数的均方差也最大,但是3个中心资料的各级TC频数差异均无统计显著性。对比有、无飞机探测时段的资料发现,对TC进行飞机探测可在一定程度上减小各中心在确定TC强度方面的分歧。为了初步了解上述资料问题对TC强度预报的可能影响,采用一个气候持续性预报方法,取不同来源的TC强度资料进行了4 a(2000—2003年)的预报。发现据JTWC资料所得TC强度预报有最大的均方根误差,RSMCTokyo的最小,CMA居中;据CMA和RSMC Tokyo(CMA和JTWC)资料,对相同TC相同时次24 h预报的平均绝对偏差达2.5(4.0)m/s,最大可相差16(21)m/s。可见,西北太平洋TC强度的基本资料问题增加了预报的难度。 相似文献
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利用中国105站的探空资料以及NCEP/NCAR、ERA和JRA三种再分析资料,采用均方根误差、趋势分析等多种统计分析方法,对再分析资料的高空温度在中国东北和西北区域的可信度进行了分析。结果表明：在气候平均方面,JRA资料相比于探空资料的均方根误差较小,冬季的均方根误差较小,西北区的均方根误差普遍大于东北区;在年际变化方面,东北区三种再分析资料在低层的反映程度明显好于高层,西北区各层三种再分析资料与探空资料的差值普遍比东北区大;在长期变化方面,三种再分析资料在对流层低层都较好,东北区NCEP资料能更好地反映探空资料高层的降温趋势,而在西北区,则是JRA资料能更好地反映探空资料高层的降温趋势。 相似文献
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张掖地区的光合有效辐射特征 总被引：16，自引：6，他引：16
光合有效辐射(PAR)是植物进行光合作用的重要能量来源。本文利用HEIFE期间在临泽(FOP)和张掖(BOP)取得的太阳分光辐射资料，分析研究了张掖地区的光合有效辐射。结果表明：张掖地区晴天PAR在太阳总辐射中所占的比例在0.419-0.426之间。季节变化不明显；多云天气条件下比值大于晴天，且有较明显的季节变化，夏季大。冬季小。文中还根据实际观测资料拟合得到了张掖地区PAR的经验公式，据此估算和讨论了张掖地区PAR的分布情况． 相似文献
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基于2005年5～9月盘锦湿地芦苇叶片气体交换观测数据,针对芦苇叶片气孔导度与光合速率以及光合速率与光合有效辐射之间的关系进行分析。结果表明:芦苇叶片气孔导度与光合速率的关系可应用Ball-Berry模型描述,光合速率与光合有效辐射的关系可应用非直角双曲线光合模型描述,联合Ball-Berry模型与非直角双曲线光合模型可通过环境变量求解叶片气孔导度。模型考虑了气孔导度与光合之间的相互作用。利用实验数据对气孔导度模型验证表明,叶片气孔导度模拟值和观测值回归方程的斜率为0.95,方程决定系数R=0.82(P<0.05)。 相似文献
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茶树、小麦和樟树群体叶面积垂直分布的差异显著，但在一定精度内，它们可用相同的函数形式描述，具有理论意义。茶树叶倾角基本服从正态分布，方差较大。不同的植物群体中，太阳辐射的垂直分布有别，与群体叶面积垂直分布密切相关。光合有效辐射（PAR）的消光系数大于总辐射（TSR）的消光系数；一天中，群体下部的光照条件以中午前后为佳，消光系数（k）最小；k值与太阳高度角的正弦成反比。考虑到k值的日变化，指数衰减律仍不失为一种简单实用的数学模型。 相似文献
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地面有效辐射气候学模型评估和参数优化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于中国19个辐射站1993-2012年的地面辐射平衡资料和气象资料,分析评估了布朗特法、彭曼法、别尔良德法、FAO24法、FAO56-PM法、邓根云法和童宏良法7种参数化方案计算中国地面有效辐射的适用性;并以均方根误差最小为目标函数,利用步长加速法和多元回归法迭代求解最优参数,建立适合于中国的最优参数化逐日有效辐射估算方法。结果表明:参与评估的7种方案都不同程度低估了中国的有效辐射;从全中国总体误差水平看,童宏良法的平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差小于其他6种方案,分别为27.0%和24.5 W/m2,估算效果较好;其次是彭曼法和邓根云法;FAO56-PM法精度较低,不适用于中国的有效辐射估算。针对单站来说,邓根云法在东部平原地区的精度最高,童宏良法由于考虑了海拔高度的订正,适用于西部高原地区。相关分析表明水汽压是影响有效辐射估算误差的最关键因素,因此根据水汽压的地理分布规律,分东部区和西部区建立分区方案。基于观测资料建立的全中国方案和分区方案的均方根误差分别为20.8和21.4 W/m2,精度均高于已有参与评估的7种方案;而且在绝大多数站点,分区方案的误差小于全中国方案,所以划分东部区和西部区进行有效辐射模型参数化很有必要。同时发现,分区方案在西部区明显优于邓根云法,在东部区明显优于童宏良法,因此推荐其作为中国有效辐射的计算方法。 相似文献
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A long-term dataset of photosynthetically active radiation (Qp) is reconstructed
from a broadband global solar radiation (Rs) dataset through an all-weather reconstruction
model. This method is based on four years' worth of data collected in Beijing. Observation data of Rs and Qp from 2005--2008 are used to investigate the temporal variability of Qp and its dependence on the clearness index and solar zenith angle. A simple and efficient all-weather empirically derived reconstruction model is proposed to reconstruct Qp from Rs. This reconstruction method is found to estimate instantaneous Qp with high accuracy. The annual mean of the daily values of Qp during the period 1958--2005 period is 25.06 mol m-2 d-1. The magnitude of the long-term trend for the annual averaged Qp is presented (-0.19 mol m-2 yr-1 from 1958--1997 and -0.12 mol m-2 yr-1 from 1958--2005). The trend in Qp exhibits sharp decreases in the spring and summer and more gentle decreases in the autumn and winter. 相似文献
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Hajnalka Breuer Ferenc ács Borbála Laza ákos Horváth István Matyasovszky Kálmán Rajkai 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(3-4):577-590
The effects of two soil datasets on planetary boundary layer (PBL) height are analyzed, using model simulations. Simulations are performed with the MM5 weather prediction system over the Carpathian Basin, with 6?km horizontal resolution, investigating three summer days, two autumn, and one winter day of similar synoptic conditions. Two soil datasets include that of the United States Department of Agriculture, which is globally used, and a regional Hungarian called Hungarian unsaturated soil database. It is shown that some hydraulic parameter values between the two datasets can differ up to 5–50%. These differences resulted in 10% deviations in the space–time-averaged PBL height (averaged over Hungary and over 12?h in the daytime period). Over smaller areas, these relative deviations could reach 25%. Daytime course changes in the PBL height for reference run conditions were significant (p?<?0.01) in ≈70% of the grid points covering Hungary. Ensemble runs using different atmospheric parameterizations and soil moisture initialization setups are also performed to analyze the sensitivity under changed conditions. In these cases, the sensitivity test showed that irrespective of the radiation and PBL scheme, the effect of different soil datasets on PBL height is roughly the same. PBL height is also sensitive to field capacity (Θf) and wilting point (Θw) changes. Θf changes seem to be more important for loamy sand, while Θw changes for the clay soil textural class. 相似文献
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基于Prata晴空大气下行长波辐射参数化方案,针对其在高原地区及可降水量较小地区理论精度较差的缺点,考虑不同高度的大气柱发射的长波辐射量不同,提出了三种考虑气压的大气下行长波辐射参数化方案,通过全球ERA-5再分析数据进行最小二乘拟合确定经验常数并在全球不同区域对其适用性进行了分析。模拟结果表明,考虑气压的参数化方案有效地改善了可降水量减小时Prata方案大气发射率收敛过快的不足,三种新方案在青藏高原安多地区和南美洲圣路易斯地区的下行长波辐射模拟结果相对于观测值和ERA-5再分析数据的平均偏差和均方根误差均更小,模拟精度相对Prata方案均有提高,适用性更强。 相似文献
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Three simple methods to estimate global solar radiation are proposed in addition to (Solar Energy 63 (1998) 147). All were tested seasonally and at different sky conditions at seven locations in Egypt. The methods use ground-based measurements of maximum and minimum temperature, daily mean of cloud cover and extraterrestrial global radiation. Average of root mean square differences (RMSD) for a comparison between observed and estimated global radiation for all locations tested was around 10% for the new methods and 13% for Supit–Van Kappel method. The coefficient of determination R2 is higher for the new methods for all tested locations. Better results were obtained when applying the new methods to different seasons. The differences in root mean square error (RMSE) between the new methods and Ångstrom–Prescott method that is based on sunshine duration data were less than 1.0 MJ m−2 day−1 at all sites. On the whole, the performance statistics demonstrate that the new methods are better when compared by Ångstrom–Prescott method. 相似文献