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地震三要素的短临预测对抗震减灾意义重大,但实现的难度很大,仍是个世界难题。笔者应用卫星红外异常增温时空演变规律对2013年4月20日芦山地震作了研究,并在2013年4月21日全国天灾预测委员会学术研讨会上作出了分析。文中简要剖析了芦山地震的构造背景和成因机理。芦山地震是我国西部地震构造区新发生的MS 7.0级大地震,其成因同汶川地震相似,主要受到印度板块NE向对青藏地块推挤,南北压缩挤出断块向SEE滑动,受到四川盆地以西龙门山断裂带强烈阻挡,积能释放后发震。文中重点介绍了红外增温时空演变规律进行短临地震预测的过程。震前红外增温异常的动态变化是地震构造活动的反应,时间上一般经历初始增温-加强增温-高峰增温-衰减到发震的4个阶段。 相似文献
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P. Mahesh Amit Bansal B. Kundu J. K. Catherine V. K. Gahalaut 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,77(3):243-251
The recent 10 August 2009 Coco earthquake (Mw 7.5), the largest aftershock of the giant 2004 Sumatra Andaman earthquake, occurred
within the subducting India plate under the Burma plate. The Coco earthquake nucleated near the northwestern edge of the 2004
Sumatra-Andaman earthquake rupture under the unruptured updip segment of the plate boundary interface. The earthquake with
predominant normal motion on approximately north-south to northeast-southwest oriented plane is very similar to the 27 June
2008 Little Andaman earthquake which occurred in the South Andaman region near the trench. We provide the only available estimate
of coseismic offset due to the 2009 Coco earthquake at a survey-mode GPS site in the north Andaman, located about 60 km south
of the Coco earthquake epicentre. The not so large coseismic displacement of about 2 cm in the ESE direction is consistent
with the earthquake focal mechanism and its magnitude. We suggest that, like the 2008 Little Andaman earthquake, this earthquake
too occurred on one of the approximately north-south to northeast-southwest oriented steep planes of the obliquely subducting
90°E ridge which was reactivated in normal motion after subduction, under the favourable influence of coseismic and ongoing
postseismic deformation due to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Another notable feature of this earthquake is its relatively
low aftershock productivity. We suggest that the earthquake occurred very close to the aseismic region of the Irrawaddy frontal
arc of very low seismicity where pre-existing faults are not so critically stressed and because of which the earthquake could
trigger only a few aftershocks in its immediate vicinity. 相似文献
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岩土边坡地震稳定性分析是岩土工程和地震工程研究的重要课题之一,本文明确区别了两种不同意义的边坡地震稳定性概念:一是按一定的抗震设防地震作用考虑,边坡现状强度与边坡强度退化到发生地震破坏时的临界强度相比较而言的储备强度稳定性;二是对于一定的边坡强度状态,使边坡发生动力破坏的地震作用与设防地震作用相比较而言的地震动力超载稳定性。考虑边坡强度退化的边坡稳定性概念已经得到普遍采用,分析方法较为熟知;而按动力超载考虑的边坡地震稳定性概念以往几乎没有提及,边坡稳定性判别标准和分析方法尚有待探讨。本文主要针对第二种边坡地震稳定性地震动力超载稳定性的衡量标准和分析方法进行了研究,提出了边坡地震动力超载稳定性评判的临界地震峰值加速度准则,并提出了边坡地震动力超载稳定性分析的荷载增强法:针对边坡的现状强度状态,由小到大逐渐增加地震作用的强度,搜索导致边坡失稳的临界地震峰值加速度,最后根据边坡临界地震峰值加速度与边坡所在区域的设防地震峰值加速度比较情况确定边坡的地震稳定性。论文采用荷载增强法对中国陕西宝鸡蟠龙塬黄土边坡地震动力超载稳定性进行了分析。结果表明,针对宝鸡地区未来50a超越概率为10%的地震动作用,该边坡具有较高的地震动力超载稳定性。 相似文献
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Naoki Uchida Satoshi Yui Satoshi Miura Toru Matsuzawa Akira Hasegawa Yoshinobu Motoya Minoru Kasahara 《Gondwana Research》2009,16(3-4):527-533
We analyzed small repeating earthquakes recorded over a 13-year period and GPS data recorded over an 8-month period to estimate interplate quasi-static slip associated with the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M8.0) and the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake (M7.1). The repeating-earthquake analysis revealed that the slip rate near the source region of the Tokachi-oki earthquake was relatively low (< 5 cm/year) prior to the earthquake; however, in the last 3 years leading up to the event, a minor acceleration in slip occurred upon the deeper extension of the coseismic slip area of the earthquake. Repeating-earthquake and GPS data indicate that large amounts of afterslip occurred around the rupture area following the earthquake; the afterslip mainly propagated to the east of the coseismic slip area. We also infer that the occurrence of the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake, located about 100 km northeast of the epicenter of the Tokachi-oki earthquake, was advanced by the afterslip associated with the Tokachi-oki earthquake. 相似文献
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对强震发生后周围断层及未来强震形势的影响研究具有非常重要的意义.青藏高原东北缘强震频发,对该区的历史强震进行研究很有必要.以青藏高原东北缘及邻区为目标建立3D黏弹性有限元模型,依据中国大陆Ⅰ级块体和青藏高原Ⅱ级块体划分及活动断裂分布确定模型块体边界及断裂位置,使用GPS观测资料作为模型边界条件,数值模拟1900年以来7级以上强震发生的动力学过程.计算结果表明:① 青藏高原东北缘及邻区区域水平构造应力场特征大致呈从西向东,从南向北减小分布.② 模拟结果说明强震主要发生在背景场应力和强震引起的等效应力加载的断层上.③ 历史强震序列对1970年以来地震的影响:康定地震加速触发了炉霍地震的发生;康定、炉霍地震对松潘地震无加速触发作用;康定、炉霍、松潘地震对共和地震无加速触发作用;炉霍、松潘、共和地震对汶川地震的影响较小;汶川地震延缓了芦山地震的发生. 相似文献
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上海市的地震基本烈度,按“中国地震目录”和“中国地震烈度区划图”,划为六度区,作者综合分析了本区的地震地质背景、历史地震和近代地震活动的规律、地基土层的特性以及邻区地震可能波及的影响等因素,并考虑到上海市地位的重要性及城市结构特点,建议现定的上海地震基本烈度提高到7度。 相似文献
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对常德太阳山断裂及其与地震关系的认识 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
太阳山断裂包括太阳出东侧断裂和太阳山西侧断裂。实际上,它们是一个北北东向的断裂带,具有规模大、长期活动的特点,与地震关系十分密切。1631年常德6.5级大地震,即发生在该断裂带上。该断裂带具备孕育中强震的地质构造条件,有再度发生中强震的可能性,建议加强地震监测。 相似文献
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依据野外地质勘查、工程揭露、地球物理探测等事实和地球化学测量资料,发现位于华北板块南缘东秦岭216.8Ma前一个古地震的震源遗迹。结合隐爆角砾岩体、系列隐爆角砾岩、岩石地球化学、同位素示踪、同位素测年、稀土元素、包裹体、岩石微观破碎等特征分析表明,该震源遗迹是在印支晚期杨子板块与华北板块碰撞对接的造山阶段,上地幔或下地壳形成的源于变质火山岩深熔的I型造山带花岗岩浆,在结晶分异过程中产生大量气液流体并沿断裂通道上升,进入硅化封闭的局部断裂空间后形成岩浆分异气液流体压力,当积聚的巨大压力超过所处深度的静岩压力与聚压空间围岩的破裂强度极限后,在地壳深部产生强烈隐爆所形成。根据上覆地层厚度、可参照的深成侵入岩体相对高度对比和主震遗迹的尺度等分析,隐爆深度位于当时地表的10km以下,隐爆主震的面波震级MS＞7.0。该震源遗迹的发现,可初步确认岩浆气液隐爆成因地震存在,并有助于克服一些地震成因研究中的震源不可视与不可入性难题,为地震成因乃至地震预测探索提供一些可直接观测研究的震源实体。
该遗迹不是一般的地震遗迹,而是一个“震源”实体遗迹——震源遗迹,而且是一个具有震源深度、发生年代、地震强度等地震要素完整且一致的可见震源遗迹。 相似文献
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冶勒沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝最大坝高为124.5 m,坝址区地震烈度高,地质条件复杂,两岸坝基条件严重不对称。大坝上布设了9台强震仪组成的强震监测台阵,曾获得2008年汶川地震和攀枝花地震的大坝强震监测记录。2013年4月20日四川省雅安市芦山县发生里氏7.0级地震,冶勒大坝距震中约212.5 km,坝址区震感较为强烈,强震监测台阵获得了此次地震较为完整的有效记录。对芦山地震主震记录进行时域分析和频谱分析,总结冶勒大坝在芦山地震中的动力反应规律,并与汶川地震时坝体动力反应进行对比分析。研究表明,芦山地震主震时冶勒大坝最大加速度记录为47.043 cm/s2,最长持续时间为76.98 s,坝顶动力放大效应明显;芦山和汶川地震时大坝动力反应规律的差异与地震波频谱特性及大坝自振特性等密切相关。总体而言,冶勒大坝在震后运行安全稳定,芦山地震未对冶勒大坝造成明显不利影响。 相似文献
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从汶川地震探讨隐爆与成矿过程 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
关于地震的成因机制目前还存在很大争议,2008年汶川大地震后的探槽、钻探和测井及地球物理勘探资料研究表明,汶川地震是一个从西南往东北方向渐进的隐爆过程。通过进一步对比国外地震的研究结果推测,地震的隐爆动力机制包含两个方面,其一是地下流体相变膨胀爆炸,其二是地下深处的累积负电荷放电(地下雷电)。然后通过对比斑岩矿床的成矿机制说明地震是一个压力温度释放过程,可以满足斑岩型矿床成矿的压力、温度、酸碱度等变化要素。本次地震富集了磷、硫、铁、锰等元素。这说明地震是一种由断裂运动激发引起的地下隐爆和成矿过程。 相似文献
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Substantial economic losses, building damage, and loss of life have been caused by secondary disasters that result from strong earthquakes. Earthquake disaster chains occur when secondary disasters take place in sequence. In this paper, we summarize 23 common earthquake disaster chains, whose structures include the serial, parallel, and parallel–serial (dendroid disaster chain) types. Evaluating the probability of powerful earthquake disaster chains is urgently needed for effective disaster prediction and emergency management. To this end, we introduce Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess powerful earthquake disaster chains. The structural graph of a powerful earthquake disaster chain is presented, and the proposed BN modeling method is provided and discussed. BN model of the earthquake–landslides–barrier lakes–floods disaster chain is established. The use of BN shows that such a model enables the effective analysis of earthquake disaster chains. Probability inference reveals that population density, loose debris volume, flooded areas, and landslide dam stability are the most critical links that lead to loss of life in earthquake disaster chains. 相似文献
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汶川大震的科学思考 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在野外地震地质科学考察的基础上,围绕汶川地震发震断层的特征、发震机制、地表破裂带的分段性与分带性、南北构造带地震危险性、地震地质灾害的多发性及链生性、工程建（构）筑物的破坏特征与安全性、地震烈度区划问题及极端自然灾害的预测与应对等进行了分析和讨论,并就有关问题提出了一些新的思考。结果表明,低速滑动断层、晚更新世断层或中央活动断裂也可以发生强震;汶川地震同时具有深部构造的控震作用;地表破裂沿走向可分为映秀—安县段、北川—关口段及青川段;地表破裂可分为主破裂、牵动破裂与感应破裂3种类型;青川段的深部破裂与浅部破裂没有几何上的连续关系或继承关系;贺兰—川滇南北构造带是中国大陆强震多发带,尤其是其北段的六盘山—天水—武都—青川一带未来的强震危险性不容忽视;汶川地震地质灾害具有灾害类型多、成因机理复杂、灾害链长、规模大、范围广、灾害程度深、危害对象广、持续时间长等特点;高烈度区和活断层沿线的地质灾害危险性区划与预测评价对防灾减灾极为重要;活动断裂沿线应注意破裂影响带宽度与建筑物安全避让距离;应对地震等极端自然灾害,应以预防为主,综合减灾;地震烈度区划应同时考虑活动断层的复发周期、地震的离逝时间乃至地形地貌条件;重大工程应提高设防烈度;应当加强极端自然灾害预测评估,完善应对对策和提高应对水平。 相似文献
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《International Geology Review》2012,54(10):1219-1228
This article examines a report in the 27th chapter of the Gospel of Matthew in the New Testament that an earthquake was felt in Jerusalem on the day of the crucifixion of Jesus of Nazareth. We have tabulated a varved chronology from a core from Ein Gedi on the western shore of the Dead Sea between deformed sediments due to a widespread earthquake in 31 BC and deformed sediments due to an early first-century earthquake. The early first-century seismic event has been tentatively assigned a date of 31 AD with an accuracy of ±5 years. Plausible candidates include the earthquake reported in the Gospel of Matthew, an earthquake that occurred sometime before or after the crucifixion and was in effect ‘borrowed’ by the author of the Gospel of Matthew, and a local earthquake between 26 and 36 AD that was sufficiently energetic to deform the sediments at Ein Gedi but not energetic enough to produce a still extant and extra-biblical historical record. If the last possibility is true, this would mean that the report of an earthquake in the Gospel of Matthew is a type of allegory. 相似文献
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2014年8月3日16时30分, 在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N, 103.3°E)发生Ms6.5地震, 震源深度10 km, 死亡617人, 失踪112人, 受伤3 143人, 受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应, 总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期, 具备Ms7地震的发生条件.次年, 利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息, 制定了2014年底211号地震预测表, 预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N, 105.33°E)将发生Ms5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸Ms6.5地震表明: 这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天, 震中相差226 km, 震级误差Ms1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究, NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置, 即本次地震的震源位置, 为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例. 相似文献
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ZHANG Yueqiao DONG Shuwen HOU Chuntang SHI Jusong WU Zhonghai LI Hailong SUN Ping LIU Gang LI Jian 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(3):633-645
At 08:02 on April 20, 2013, a Ms7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan, Ya'an, in the Longmenshan fault zone, Sichuan. The epicenter was located between Taiping Town and Shuangshi Town, Lushan County and the maximum earthquake intensity at the epicenter reached class IX. Field investigations in the epicenter area found that, although buildings were seriously damaged, no obvious surface rupture structure was produced, only some ground fissures and sand blows and water ejection phenomena being seen. An integrated analysis of high-resolution remote sensing image interpretation, mainshock and aftershock distribution, and focal mechanism solutions indicated that this earthquake was an independent rupturing event in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, belonging to the thrust-type earthquake. Ruptures occurred along the south-central segment of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault and the principal rupture plane dipped SW at 33-43°. It is inferred that the Lushan earthquake might be related to the ramp activity of the basal detachment zone (13-19 km) of the Longmenshan fault zone. Historically, there occurred at least two Ms6-6.5 earthquakes along the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault zone; thus it is thought that the Lushan earthquake, different from the Wenchuan earthquake, was a characteristic one in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone. In-situ stress measurements indicated the Lushan earthquake was the result of stress release of the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone after the Wenchuan earthquake. This paper analyzes the tectonic setting of the seismogenic structure of this earthquake. 相似文献
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文章介绍了矿震相关知识与结构地震响应分析理论。根据抚顺老虎台矿1995~2003年的矿震监测数据,针对矿区附近一栋七层砖混结构住宅进行了矿震响应分析。应用ADINA软件模拟了矿震对建筑结构的作用,将分析结果以剪力图、弯矩图及结点位移时间函数形式显示在图中。结果表明,在近些年频繁的矿震作用下,抚顺地区矿震对砖混结构影响较大,未来几年内结构的累积损伤有加大趋势,应及时进行加固以免造成较大的损失。该研究方法可用来模拟矿震对建筑结构的作用,对今后预测矿震对建筑结构的影响程度研究具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献