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1.
Evaluation of potential landslide damming: Case study of Urni landslide,Kinnaur, Satluj valley,India
This work aims to understand the process of potential landslide damming using slope failure mechanism,dam dimension and dam stability evaluation. The Urni landslide, situated on the right bank of the Satluj River, Himachal Pradesh(India) is taken as the case study. The Urni landslide has evolved into a complex landslide in the last two decade(2000-2016) and has dammed the Satluj River partially since year 2013,damaging ～200 m stretch of the National Highway(NH-05). The crown of the landslide exists at an altitude of ～2180-2190 m above msl, close to the Urni village that has a human population of about 500.The high resolution imagery shows ～50 m long landslide scarp and ～100 m long transverse cracks in the detached mass that implies potential for further slope failure movement. Further analysis shows that the landslide has attained an areal increase of 103,900 ± 1142 m^2 during year 2004-2016. About 86% of this areal increase occurred since year 2013. Abrupt increase in the annual mean rainfall is also observed since the year 2013. The extreme rainfall in the June, 2013; 11 June(～100 mm) and 16 June(～115 mm),are considered to be responsible for the slope failure in the Urni landslide that has partially dammed the river. The finite element modelling(FEM) based slope stability analysis revealed the shear strain in the order of 0.0-0.16 with 0.0-0.6 m total displacement in the detachment zone. Further, kinematic analysis indicated planar and wedge failure condition in the jointed rockmass. The debris flow runout simulation of the detached mass in the landslide showed a velocity of ～25 m/s with a flow height of ～15 m while it(debris flow) reaches the valley floor. Finally, it is also estimated that further slope failure may detach as much as 0.80 ±0.32 million m^3 mass that will completely dam the river to a height of 76±30 m above the river bed. 相似文献
2.
<正>Recent advances in landslide/avalanche modeling have been enabling us to investigate the kinematics of such catastrophic events with much more details.Taiwan is located in a region where seismic activities and extreme weather conditions frequently occur.One of their common consequences is the slope failure.In the past decodes,we witnessed at least three giant landslides:Tsaoling,Jiufenershan landslides,triggered by the Chi-Chi earthquake in 相似文献
3.
Bhoj Raj Pantha Ryuichi Yatabe Netra Prakash Bhandary 《《幕》》2008,31(4):384-391
Roadside slope failure is a common problem in the Himalayan region as road construction activities disturb natural slopes. Therefore, landslide susceptibility zonation is necessary for roadside slope disaster management and planning development activities. In this study, we consider a 53-kin section of a major highway in Nepal where road services are suspended for several days in the monsoon season every year. A number of methods have been used for landslide susceptibility zonation. We employed a bivariate statistical approach for this study. Relevant thematic layer maps represent- ing various factors （e.g., slope, aspect, land use, lithology, drainage density, proximity to stream and proximity to road） that are related to landslide activity, have been prepared using Geographic Information System （GIS） techniques. A total of 277 landslides （covering a total of 29.90 km2） of various dimensions have been identified in the area. A landslide susceptibility map was prepared by overlaying a landslide inventory map with various parameter maps segmented into various relevant classes. The landslide susceptibility index was seg- mented into five zones, viz. very low, low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility. Landslide susceptibility zonation maps are useful tools for the efficient planning and management of roadside slope repair and maintenance tasks in the Himalayan region. 相似文献
4.
Phuong Thao Thi Ngo Mahdi Panahi Khabat Khosravi Omid Ghorbanzadeh Narges Kariminejad Artemi Cerda Saro Lee 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(2):505-519
The identification of landslide-prone areas is an essential step in landslide hazard assessment and mitigation of landslide-related losses.In this study,we applied two novel deep learning algorithms,the recurrent neural network(RNN)and convolutional neural network(CNN),for national-scale landslide susceptibility mapping of Iran.We prepared a dataset comprising 4069 historical landslide locations and 11 conditioning factors(altitude,slope degree,profile curvature,distance to river,aspect,plan curvature,distance to road,distance to fault,rainfall,geology and land-sue)to construct a geospatial database and divided the data into the training and the testing dataset.We then developed RNN and CNN algorithms to generate landslide susceptibility maps of Iran using the training dataset.We calculated the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and used the area under the curve(AUC)for the quantitative evaluation of the landslide susceptibility maps using the testing dataset.Better performance in both the training and testing phases was provided by the RNN algorithm(AUC=0.88)than by the CNN algorithm(AUC=0.85).Finally,we calculated areas of susceptibility for each province and found that 6%and 14%of the land area of Iran is very highly and highly susceptible to future landslide events,respectively,with the highest susceptibility in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province(33.8%).About 31%of cities of Iran are located in areas with high and very high landslide susceptibility.The results of the present study will be useful for the development of landslide hazard mitigation strategies. 相似文献
5.
李霞宿星张满银任皓晨周自强吴玮江董耀刚王国亚 《冰川冻土》2023,(1):67-79
Analysis and assessment of landslide susceptibility using 3S technology and mathematical statistical model is still the current hot topics. It is very important for selection of unit and factor and model to the landslide susceptibility assessment reasonably. Tianshui City is selected as the study area which is in the typical regions of Longzhong ecologically vulnerable area. Based on the weights-of-evidence approach（WOE）and two kinds of assessment units（grid-unit,GU,slope-unit,SU）and also two resolutions（30 m,10 m）,a total of four differ⁃ ent data sets（GU30,SU30,GU10,SU10）is established. Then quantitative analysis and contrast assessment di⁃ vision of the loess landslide susceptibility in the study area though selected four kinds of thirteen factors. The re⁃ sults show that stratum lithology,altitude,relief amplitude,roughness and slope are the key control factors of landslide development in the area. The geological factors and topographic factors control and determine the for⁃ mation and development of the landslides in study area. The susceptibility value of stratum lithology is the high⁃ est value. Statistical analysis of susceptibility division is carried out according to the point and area of landslide respectively. The landslide ratio shows that the division based on the slope-unit is higher than that of the grid-unit. Landslide susceptibility area in highest division based on the slope-unit and 10m high resolution is account⁃ ed for the highest. Therefore,it has higher precision in landslide susceptibility analysis and assessment that us⁃ ing the slope-unit and high resolution data. The landslide susceptibility result is consistent with the actual land⁃ slide development in the study area. The division results can also be used for the landslide prevention and control and national spatial planning in the study area. © 2023 Chinese Journal of General Practitioners. All rights reserved. 相似文献
6.
This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs. 相似文献
7.
A Simple Monte Carlo Method for Locating the Three-dimensional Critical Slip Surface of a Slope 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
XIE Mowen Institute of Environmental Systems Kyushu University Hakozaki -- Higashi Ku Fukuok Japan College of Resource Engineering the University of Science Technology Beijing Xueyuan Ro Haidian District Beijing China 《《地质学报》英文版》2004,78(6):1258-1266
Based on the assumption of the plain-strain problem, various optimization or random search methods have been developed for locating the critical slip surfaces in slope-stability analysis, but none of such methods is applicable to the 3D case. In this paper, a simple Monte Carlo random simulation method is proposed to identify the 3D critical slip surface. Assuming the initial slip to be the lower part of a slip ellipsoid, the 3D critical slip surface is located by means of a minimized 3D safety factor. A column-based 3D slope stability analysis model is used to calculate this factor. In this study, some practical cases of known minimum safety factors and critical slip surfaces in 2D analysis are extended to 3D slope problems to locate the critical slip surfaces. Compared with the 2D result, the resulting 3D critical slip surface has no apparent difference in terms of only cross section, but the associated 3D safety factor is definitely higher. 相似文献
8.
The results brought out in the trials of slope protection along Qinghai-Tibet Highway are presented in this paper. The trials were carried out simultaneously at 5 sites in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2002. Altitudes at the experimental sites range between 4 240 m and 5 040 m. 4 sites are in permafrost area, and 1 site is in seasonally frozen ground. According to the trials of slope protection, vegetation is preferred to protect slopes along Qinghai-Tibet Highway. Road-GoodR, a chemical stabilizer, is proved as a good material for slope protection, and soil engineering system, combined with vegetative component and grade stabilization structures is proved as the best slope protection measure in these are as. The results showed that high-altitude areas at an altitude lower than 5 040 m, annual average temperatures higher than -5.6 ℃ and annual rainfall more than 262.2 mm, slopes can be protected using vegetative components.Trials for plant species selection proved that cold resistant grasses, Elymus nutans and Elymus sibiricus can be used for vegetation recovery along Qinghai-Tibet Highway. The results demonstrated that high-altitude areas at an altitude lower than 5 040 m, annual average temperatures higher than -5.6 ℃ and annual rainfall more than 262.2 mm, could be replanted. Hydroseeding proved to be a good planting technique, and mulch materials benefited vegetation recovery in such area.The experiment also proved that planting could improve slope stability, protect the ecological environment, and improve the roadside landscape. 相似文献
9.
Rüdiger Escobar-Wolf Jonathon D.Sanders C.L.Vishnu Thomas Oommen K.S.Sajinkumar 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(2):756-768
Landslides are one of the most common and a destructive natural hazard in mountainous terrain and thus evaluating their potential locations and the conditions under which they may occur is crucial for their hazard assessment.Shallow landslide occurrence in soil and regolith covered slopes are often modeled using the infinite slope model,which characterizes the slope stability in terms of a factor of safety(FS) value.Different approaches have been followed to also assess and propagate uncertainty through such models.Haneberg(2004) introduced the use of the First Order Second Moment(FOSM) method to propagate input uncertainty through the infinite slope model,further developing the model and implementing it in the PISA-m software package(Haneberg,2007).Here we present an ArcPy implementation of PISA-m algorithms,which can be run from ESRI ArcMap in an entirely consistent georeferenced framework,and which we call "GIS Tool for Infinite Slope Stability Analysis"(GIS-TISSA).Users can select between different input options,e.g.,following a similar input style as for PISA-m,i.e., using an ASCII.csv parameters input file,or providing each input parameter as a raster or constant value,through the program graphic user interface.Analysis outputs can include FS mean and standard deviation estimates,the probability of failure(FS <1), and a reliability index(RI) calculation for FS.Following the same seismic analysis approach as in PISA-m, the Newmark acceleration can also be done,for which raster files of the mean,standard deviation,probability of exceedance,and RI are also generated.Verification of the code is done by replicating the results obtained with the PISA-m code for different input options,within a 10-5 relative error.Monte Carlo modeling is also applied to validate GIS-TISSA outputs,showing a good overall correspondence.A case study was performed for Kannur district,Kerala,India,where an extensive landslide databa se for the year 2018 was available.81.19% of the actual landslides fell in zones identified by the model as unstable.GIS-TISSA provides a user-friendly interface,particularly for those users familiar with ESRI ArcMap,that is fully embedded in a GIS framework and which can then be used for further analysis without having to change software platforms and do data conversions.The ArcPy toolbox is provided as a.pyt file as an appendix as well as hosted at the weblink:https://pages.mtu.edu/~toommen/GeoHazard.html. 相似文献
10.
ZhouPinggen 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(2):161-165
The factors of geomorphology, geological setting, effect of ground water and environment dynamic factors (e.g. rainfall and artificial water recharge) should be integrated in the discrimination of the stability of the ancient landslide. As the criterion of landslide stability has been studied, the artificial neural network model was then applied to discriminate the stability of the ancient landslide in the impounding area of the Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River, China. The model has the property of self-adaptive identifying and integrating complex qualitative factors and quantitative factors. The results of the artificial neural network model are coincided well with what were gained by classical limit equilibrimm analysis (the Bishop method and Janbu method) and by other comprehensive discrimination methods. 相似文献
11.
12.
The distribution of permafrost-related slope failures along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway from Wuddaoliang to Fenghuoshan correlates with ice content, slope gradient, and ground temperature. Slope failures are of two types. (1) Retrogressive thaw slumps result from icy permafrost being exposed by either man-induced excavation or fluvial-thermal erosion and undercutting of basal slopes. (2) Active-layer-detachment failures are caused by thaw of icy permafrost at the active layer-permafrost interface. After initial failure, active-layer-detachment failures can lead to retrogressive thaw-slumping and localized surficial landslide. Common trigger mechanisms for failure include high summer air temperatures and heavy summer precipitation. A third possible trigger mechanism for slope failure is earthquake occurrence. A geotechnical slope stability analysis was undertaken for an active-layer-detachment failure that had progressed into a retrogressive thaw slump. A safety factor (F s ) of 1.24 for the natural slope was determined using in situ tested strength parameters. However, the slope would lose stability when either the groundwater level over the permafrost table exceeded 1.42 m or seismic acceleration reached, or exceeded, 0.03?g. 相似文献
13.
青藏高原多年冻土区斜坡稳定性研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
青藏高原多年冻土区斜坡失稳是伴随着青藏公路建设和运营过程中出现的一种灾害性的地质现象，其中以热融滑塌最为显著。本文根据斜坡失稳时所处的环境以融滑塌为例，提出了冻融循环过程中流塑状粉土沿厚层地下冰面滑动的滞水润滑效应的形成机理；通过相似模拟试验，可以看出，垂直于坡面的变形主要表现为融沉变形和部分冻胀变形；建立了温度场、变形场的数值模拟模型，分析了坡体不同深度在冻融循环过程中的位移变化规律，得出冻土斜坡位移主要发生在浅部的结论。最后指出目前研究存在的主要问题及进一步的研究方向。 相似文献
14.
岩质高边坡稳定性分析是岩土工程中经典的研究课题,其假定不同,分析方法就不同。从现有稳定性分析方法中存在的问题入手,指出其存在的优劣性,在刚体极限平衡和有限元等传统边坡稳定性分析方法的基础上,提出了用有限单元法直接求解边坡稳定性。该方法的思路是用潜在滑动面上在开挖、支护完成后尚未发生滑动的所有滑面单元模拟边坡在各工况下的真实应力场和变形场,根据这个真实应力场直接计算边坡安全系数。结合现场即时监测手段和计算机仿真技术可逐步模拟边坡在分步开挖期间的稳定性。算例分析表明,该方法完善了刚体极限平衡法的不足,克服了强度折减法强度参数c、?值折减比例的难题,弥补了超载法力学方向不明确的缺陷。计算所得的边坡安全系数和稳定状态与工程实际相当接近,表明提出的方法是可靠有效的新方法,为复杂岩质边坡稳定性分析提供了新的思路和途径。 相似文献
15.
卡拉水电站上田滑坡体稳定性分析及评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
[摘 要] 为了分析卡拉水电站工程区某滑坡体的稳定性,通过对其滑坡成因、地形地貌、地质构造、
岩土力学参数敏感性等内在因素分析可知,滑坡体随着坡面隆起和坡内扩容加剧,在外界作用下易导致
边坡失稳破坏;其层面与节理裂隙的不良组合为边坡变形失稳提供了边界,陡倾坡内的裂隙,为地下水
的入渗创造了条件;滑坡稳定性随着岩土力学强度参数的提高而增强。通过对降雨、水位升降和地震等
外在因素的敏感性分析可知,库水位骤升骤降对滑坡的稳定性影响较大;短期降雨影响较小,但时间增
长滑坡失稳概率增加;地震峰值对滑坡稳定性影响较为明显。同时根据分析结果对滑坡体进行了工况
及荷载组合,并对各工况组合进行了稳定性计算及评价,得出水位下降时滑坡稳定性处于极限状态,在
蓄水地震工况下失稳概率较大。 相似文献
16.
堆积层滑坡是滑坡的一种基本类型,其物质组成、结构等有别于其它类型滑坡。堆积层滑坡失稳绝大多数是由降雨或地下水位的变化而引起的,在降雨诱发堆积层滑坡稳定性分析中,必须考虑渗透力的作用。系统分析了堆积型滑坡发育环境及特征,推导了基于总应力法和有效应力法的可考虑渗透力的传递系数法,采用有效应力法计算滑坡稳定系数时,既要考虑地下水浮力作用,又要考虑地下水流动时的渗透力作用;采用总应力法计算滑坡稳定系数时,仅需考虑地下水流动时的渗透力作用。对一个工程实例进行了深入剖析,验证了考虑渗透力的传递系数法的可靠性。 相似文献
17.
Bishop法等边坡稳定分析的经典方法用于分析膨胀土边坡时本身并无问题,只是由于计算条件的考虑不足,使得计算结果不能反映出膨胀土上的滑坡特点。在Bishop法的基础上,通过完善其计算条件,考虑了裂缝开展导致的土体强度降低、裂缝开展的深度、降雨时裂缝群中形成的渗流,以及可能的裂缝侧壁静水压力的作用等影响因素,完成了对膨胀土边坡稳定分析方法的改进。改进后的方法反映出裂缝对膨胀土边坡稳定性的影响,计算结果真实再现了浅层性、牵引性、长期性、平缓性和季节性等膨胀土边坡的滑坡特点。 相似文献
18.
2006年7月吾尔塔米斯沟发生了一起浅层推移式滑坡,坡体处于基本稳定状态,但存在着一定的安全隐患。通过现场勘察总结了滑坡结构特征,并通过实验测试确定了滑坡的物理力学指标,建立起与滑坡主勘探线剖面对应的滑坡稳定性分析模型,运用传递系数法计算该滑坡不同工况的稳定系数,对滑坡体稳定性进行评价。上述研究结果表明,该滑坡稳定系数为1.147,处于较稳定状态,但在发生强烈地震、短时强降雨或有较大规模坡顶、坡脚扰动时,稳定系数均小于1,处于欠稳定状态,进一步发生较大规模滑动的可能性很大。 相似文献
19.
边坡失稳产生的灾害不仅会给工农业生产带来巨大损失,也会对人民的生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。目前,滑坡灾害已与地震、火山并列成为全球3大地质灾害之一,其中由水库水位变化诱发的滑坡近来得到重视。因此,建立合理的边坡稳定性分析方法对预测以及防控滑坡灾害十分重要。实际中的边坡失稳过程往往在多种荷载因素的耦合作用下发生,但现有边坡极限分析等稳定性解析方法偏重于考虑单一荷载因素,难以合理考虑多类荷载耦合作用条件,缺乏对边坡稳定性依赖加载过程这一现象的合理解释。本文在极限分析原理的基础上,将水库区边坡所受荷载凝练为水位上升与坡顶加载的耦合作用。将水位荷载简化为水位线以下土体受到浮力以及黏聚力的减小,建立了一个土坡稳定性分析方法,编写了相应的数值计算程序,通过与离心模型试验结果进行对比验证了方法的有效性。该方法计算结果表明,边坡稳定性随坡顶荷载增加单调下降,而随水位上升表现出先降低后增加的非单调变化。因此,坡顶荷载与水位上升耦合加载过程中,边坡稳定性对于加载过程具有显著的依赖性。 相似文献
20.
本文以高治村滑坡为例,论述了FLAC3D在滑坡稳定性分析评价中的应用。作者首先介绍了FLAC3D的基本原理和主要流程,然后采用摩尔-库伦模型,对高治村滑坡在天然状态和暴雨状态下的变形和位移情况进行了数值模拟,模拟结果直观地显示了该坡体在上述两种状态下的塑性变形及水平方向位移的分布特征,清楚地显示了坡体内潜在的滑动面。文章根据数值模拟结果,对该滑坡的稳定性进行了分析和评价,对该滑坡的变形和破坏形式进行了研究和探讨。通过对该坡体的塑性变形与位移情况分析认为,该滑坡在天然状态下基本稳定;在连续高强度降雨状态下欠稳定,局部失稳滑塌的可能性很大,这与现场调查分析的结果一致。这个结果表明,利用FLAC3D进行滑坡稳定性分析和评价简单、可行,且更加直观、方便,具有传统极限平衡法所无法比拟的优势。 相似文献