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1.
L. J. Ruff 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,154(3-4):409-431
—Stress drop is a fundamental parameter of earthquakes, but it is difficult to obtain reliable stress drop estimates for most earthquakes. Static stress drop estimates require knowledge of the seismic moment and fault area. Dynamic stress drop estimates are based entirely upon the observed source time functions. Based on analytical formulas that I derive for the crack and slip-pulse rupture models, the amplitude and time of the initial peak in source time functions can be inverted for dynamic stress drop. For multiple event earthquakes, this method only gives the dynamic stress drop of the first event. The Michigan STF catalog provides a uniform data base for all large earthquakes that have occurred in the past four years. Dynamic stress drops are calculated for the nearly 200 events in this catalog, and the resultant estimates scatter between 0.1 and 100 MPa. There is some coherent tectonic signal within this scatter. In the Sanriku (Japan) and Mexico subduction zones, underthrusting earthquakes that occur at the up-dip and down-dip edges of the seismogenic zone have correspondingly low and high values of stress drop. A speculative picture of the stress state of subduction zones emerges from these results. A previous study found that the absolute value of shear stress linearly increases down the seismogenic interface to a value of about 50 MPa at the down-dip edge. In this study, the dynamic stress drop of earthquakes at the up-dip edge is about 0.2 MPa, while large earthquakes at the down-dip edge of the seismogenic plate interface have dynamic stress drops of up to 5 MPa. These results imply that (1) large earthquakes only reduce the shear stress on the plate interface by a small fraction of the absolute level; and thus (2) most of the earthquake energy is partitioned into friction at the plate interface. 相似文献
2.
By utilizing functional relationships based on observations at plot or field scales, water quality models first compute surface runoff and then use it as the primary governing variable to estimate sediment and nutrient transport. When these models are applied at watershed scales, this serial model structure, coupling a surface runoff sub-model with a water quality sub-model, may be inappropriate because dominant hydrological processes differ among scales. A parallel modeling approach is proposed to evaluate how best to combine dominant hydrological processes for predicting water quality at watershed scales. In the parallel scheme, dominant variables of water quality models are identified based entirely on their statistical significance using time series analysis. Four surface runoff models of different model complexity were assessed using both the serial and parallel approaches to quantify the uncertainty on forcing variables used to predict water quality. The eight alternative model structures were tested against a 25-year high-resolution data set of streamflow, suspended sediment discharge, and phosphorous discharge at weekly time steps. Models using the parallel approach consistently performed better than serial-based models, by having less error in predictions of watershed scale streamflow, sediment and phosphorus, which suggests model structures of water quantity and quality models at watershed scales should be reformulated by incorporating the dominant variables. The implication is that hydrological models should be constructed in a way that avoids stacking one sub-model with one set of scale assumptions onto the front end of another sub-model with a different set of scale assumptions. 相似文献
3.
基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及板间地震区划分原则,划分了伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区至少已经历三个完整的孕育周期,是一个Mw8.3~8.6地震危险区;2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,是该区当前孕育周期第三锁固段损伤累积至峰值强度点时发生的一次标志性大震事件;2015年5月12日尼泊尔Mw7.3地震发生后,该地震区再次处于临界状态,将发生Mw8.0~8.2地震. 相似文献
4.
经常观察到这样的现象：活化的克拉通在其演化的不同阶段经历过裂谷作用，在这些地区有分割的地堑构造，有些地堑已变成现代的活跃地震带，如中国山西临汾地堑，中国河北邢台地堑和美国的新马德里地堑。大量资料表明，这些地区的地震成因与许多地质、地球物理条件有关，而不仅仅是活动断层。以临汾地堑为例，地震发生过程涉及到下列因素：（１）地堑周围强度较大的变质岩，这些岩体在区域应力场作用下产生应力积累；（２）地堑内５－ 相似文献
5.
A model is proposed describing the mechanical evolution of a shear zone along compressional and extensional plate boundaries, subject to constant strain rate. The shear zones are assumed as viscoelastic with Maxwell rheology and with elastic and rheological parameters depending on temperature and petrology. Stress and strain are computed as functions of time and depth. For both kinds of boundaries the model reproduces the existence of a shallow seismogenic zone, characterized by a stress concentration. The thickness of the seismogenic layer is evaluated considering the variations of shear stress and frictional strength on faults embedded in the shear zone. Assuming that a fault dislocation takes place, the brittle-ductile transition is assumed to occur at the depth at which the time derivative of total shear stress changes from positive to negative values. The effects of different strain rates and geothermal gradients on the depth of the brittle-ductile transition are studied. The model predictions are consistent with values inferred from seismicity data of different boundary zones. 相似文献
6.
The estimation of site intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions has been studied from different points of view. However, no method has been definitively established because several problems arise when macroseismic historical data are incomplete and the active zones are not well determined. The purpose of this paper is to present a method that estimates site occurrence probabilities and at the same time measures the uncertainties inherent in these probabilities in low activity regions. The region to be studied is divided into very broad seismic zones. An exponential intensity probability law is adjusted for each zone and the degree of uncertainty in the assumed incompleteness of the catalogue is evaluated for each intensity. These probabilities are used to establish what may be termed ‘prior site occurrence models’. A Bayesian method is used to improve ‘prior models’ and to obtain the ‘posterior site occurrence models’. Epicentre locations are used to recover spatial information lost in the prior broad zoning. This Bayesian correction permits the use of specific attenuation for different events and may take into account, by means of conservative criteria, epicentre location errors. Following Bayesian methods, probabilities are assumed to be random variables and their distribution may be used to estimate the degree of uncertainty arising from (a) the statistical variance of estimators, (b) catalogue incompleteness and (c) mismatch of data to prior assumptions such as Poisson distribution for events and exponential distribution for intensities. The results are maps of probability and uncertainty for each intensity. These maps exhibit better spatial definition than those obtained by means of simple, broad zones. Some results for Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) are shown. 相似文献
7.
A NEW FINDING OF SURFACE RUPTURE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1936 LINGSHAN M6(3/4) EARTHQUAKE,GUANGXI, CHINA 
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下载免费PDF全文 LI Xi-guang LI Bing-su PAN Li-li NIE Guan-jun WU Jiao-bing LU Jun-hong YAN Xiao-min LI Zhi-yong 《地震地质》2017,39(4):689-698
On April 1, 1936, an M6(3/4) earthquake occurred on the Fangcheng-lingshan Fault. This event is the biggest historical earthquake on the coastal seismic zone, South China ever. But so far, no any findings about the surface rupture of this event have been reported. This paper is the first to find several intact surface rupture zones associated with the 1936 Lingshan seismic event, in the areas of Gaotang, Jiaogengping etc. on the northeast segment of the Fangcheng-Lingshan Fault. According to the field work, the surface rupture stretches to 10km and distributes along NE direction in front of Luoyang Mountain, represented by earthquake scarp, extensional fracture, dextrally faulted gully and river system etc. The characteristics of surface ruptures and faulted landforms indicate that the surface rupture is of normal-dextral strike slip faulting. The trenching on this fault exposed that at least three seismic events have been recorded, including two historical earthquake events and the latest one is the 1936 Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake. These surface rupture zones are the key to the detection of seismogenic structure and the re-estimate of magnitude of this event. The new finding of these surface rupture zones would be particularly significant for the detection of the seismogenic structure of Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake. 相似文献
8.
Structural Properties and Deformation Patterns of Evolving Strike-slip Faults: Numerical Simulations Incorporating Damage Rheology 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Yaron Finzi Elizabeth H. Hearn Yehuda Ben-Zion Vladimir Lyakhovsky 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(10-11):1537-1573
We present results on evolving geometrical and material properties of large strike-slip fault zones and associated deformation fields, using 3-D numerical simulations in a rheologically-layered model with a seismogenic upper crust governed by a continuum brittle damage framework over a viscoelastic substrate. The damage healing parameters we employ are constrained using results of test models and geophysical observations of healing along active faults. The model simulations exhibit several results that are likely to have general applicability. The fault zones form initially as complex segmented structures and evolve overall with continuing deformation toward contiguous, simpler structures. Along relatively-straight mature segments, the models produce flower structures with depth consisting of a broad damage zone in the top few kilometers of the crust and highly localized damage at depth. The flower structures form during an early evolutionary stage of the fault system (before a total offset of about 0.05 to 0.1 km has accumulated), and persist as continued deformation localizes further along narrow slip zones. The tectonic strain at seismogenic depths is concentrated along the highly damaged cores of the main fault zones, although at shallow depths a small portion of the strain is accommodated over a broader region. This broader domain corresponds to shallow damage (or compliant) zones which have been identified in several seismic and geodetic studies of active faults. The models produce releasing stepovers between fault zone segments that are locations of ongoing interseismic deformation. Material within the fault stepovers remains damaged during the entire earthquake cycle (with significantly reduced rigidity and shear-wave velocity) to depths of 10 to 15 km. These persistent damage zones should be detectable by geophysical imaging studies and could have important implications for earthquake dynamics and seismic hazard. 相似文献
9.
Simon S. Vale Ian C. Fuller Jonathan N. Procter Les R. Basher John R. Dymond 《水文研究》2020,34(15):3370-3386
Sediment fingerprinting has been widely used to distinguish discrete sediment sources; however, application to intra-storm sediment source variability has received relatively little focus despite the benefit being long recognized. In this investigation, sediment fingerprinting was applied to a 53-hr storm event sampled hourly to determine sediment source dynamics throughout the event. Sediment sources were differentiated using 16 variables, and source contribution determined using Bayesian and Frequentist mixing models for comparison. Both models provided comparable source predictions for the dominant source estimates and the general temporal pattern. The Frequentist model appeared to exhibit some unreliable values coinciding with low GOF and attributed to inherent model structure. The Bayesian model showed higher uncertainty, likely due to the “process error” utilized associated with single sample mixtures. High variability in sediment source contribution was observed between hourly time steps; however, local smoothing reveals temporal trends during the event. A higher average proportion of mudstone is found in the falling limb (0.544) compared with the rising limb (0.464), and the reverse is observed for mountain range (0.218 vs. 0.283) and unconsolidated (0.073 vs. 0.055). In the initial hours of the storm, mudstone source contribution significantly drops, whereas mountain range and unconsolidated contributions peak. The SSC-Q clockwise hysteresis indicates proximal sediment sources, suggesting the mudstone sediment is stored channel sediment and easily entrained. This sediment flushes through, coinciding with a drop as the distal mountain range and unconsolidated sources arrive to peak contribution. The wider Manawatū discharge and sediment load then arrive, delivering increasing levels of mudstone throughout the remainder of the event while mountain range sediment diminishes. Spatial representation of the sediment source contribution was derived from distributing sediment source loads to the spatial extent of the source material according to sub-catchment sediment loads and was weighted according to slope. This provided an effective means to visualize the origin of the sediment and a better spatial interpretation of sediment fingerprinting results, which is typically limited by poor spatial resolution. 相似文献
10.
Investigation of Coulomb stress changes in south Tibet(central Himalayas) due to the 25th April 2015 M_W 7.8 Nepal earthquake using a Coulomb stress transfer model 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 After M_W 7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred, the rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. We present the calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 25 th April event using models of regional faults designed according to south Tibet-Nepal structure, and show that some indicative significant stress increases. We calculate static stress changes caused by the displacement of a fault on which dislocations happen and an earthquake occurs. A M_W 7.3 earthquake broke on 12 May at a distance of * 130 km SEE of the M_W 7.8 earthquake, whose focus roughly located on high Coulomb stress change(CSC) site. Aftershocks(first 15 days after the mainshock)are associated with stress increase zone caused by the main rupture. We set receiver faults with specified strikes, dips,and rakes, on which the stresses imparted by the source fault are resolved. Four group normal faults to the north of the Nepal earthquake seismogenic fault were set as receiver faults and variant results followed. We provide a discussion on Coulomb stress transfer for the seismogenic fault, which is useful to identify potential future rupture zones. 相似文献
11.
Separate domains of the Mediterranean belt (Zagros, Vrancea, and the Crimea-Caucasus-Black-Sea region) are discussed to argue for a diversity of earthquake-generation mechanisms as an impact of very variable systems of tectonic stresses, which are at the same time characterized by selectiveness in the orientations of the principal axis. We give stereographic models of earthquake-generation mechanisms, as well as the results from parameterization and structural kinematic identification of elements in the internal structure of seismogenic regions. We have identified a discrete character of earthquake-generating stress fields both with respect to the cardinal points (to the Earth’s axis of rotation) and with respect to the ground (horizontal) surface. We show that the diversity of seismogenic settings results from the transformations of stress fields that occur both at the regional and at local levels in the zones affected by the impact of major seismogenic structures in the study regions. 相似文献
12.
Despite the abundance of existing hydrological models, there is no single model that has been identified as performing consistently over the range of possible catchment types and catchment conditions. An attractive alternative to selecting a single model is to combine the results from several different hydrological models, thereby providing a more appropriate representation of model uncertainty than is the case otherwise. Methods based on Bayesian statistical techniques provide an ideal means to compare and combine competing models, as they explicitly account for model uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging is one such alternative that combines individual models by weighting models proportional to their respective posterior probability of selection. However, the necessity of having fixed weights for each model over the entire length of the simulation period means that the relative usefulness of different models at different times is not considered. The hierarchical mixtures of experts (HME) framework is an appealing extension of the model averaging framework that allows the individual model weights to be estimated dynamically. Consequently, a model more capable at simulating low flow characteristics attains a higher weight (probability) when such conditions are likely, switching over to a lower weight when catchment storage increases. In this way, different models apply in different hydrological states, with the probability of selecting each model being allowed to depend on relevant antecedent condition characteristics. HME models provide additional flexibility compared with simple combinations of models, by allowing the way that model predictions are combined to depend on predictor variables. Thus, for hydrological models, the ‘switch’ from one model to another can depend on the existing catchment condition. This new modelling framework is applied using a simple conceptual model to 10 selected Australian catchments. The study regions are chosen to vary considerably in terms of size, yield and location. Results from this application are compared with the alternative where a single fixed model structure is applied. Comparison of the model simulations using the maximum log‐likelihood and the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency show that more variance in streamflow was explained by the HME model, compared with the conceptual model alone for each of the catchments investigated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
14.
Located on the east boundary of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is the strongest event to hit the active block since the 2001 Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake. In this study, a simplified source model of the Wenchuan earthquake is constructed based on the deep/shallow tectonic settings and crust/mantle structure features of the Longmenshan thrust fault zone. On the basis of dynamic model abstraction, we construct a system of dynamical equations for the seismogenic process and obtain the analytical expressions of stress and strain in the seismogenic process. A preliminary study of the seismogenic process of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, based on the analytical solution of the model and observation of tectonic deformation in the Longmenshan region, indicates that the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan earthquake took place over a period of more than 3200 years. The slow process of seismogeny and the long recurrence period of strong earthquakes are attributed to the low deformation rate of the Longmenshan tectonic zone. 相似文献
15.
In many studies, the distribution of soil attributes depends on both spatial location and environmental factors, and prediction and process identification are performed using existing methods such as kriging. However, it is often too restrictive to model soil attributes as dependent on a known, parametric function of environmental factors, which kriging typically assumes. This paper investigates a semiparametric approach for identifying and modeling the nonlinear relationships of spatially dependent soil constituent levels with environmental variables and obtaining point and interval predictions over a spatial region. Frequentist and Bayesian versions of the proposed method are applied to measured soil nitrogen levels throughout Florida, USA and are compared to competing models, including frequentist and Bayesian kriging, based an array of point and interval measures of out-of-sample forecast quality. The semiparametric models outperformed competing models in all cases. Bayesian semiparametric models yielded the best predictive results and provided empirical coverage probability nearly equal to nominal. 相似文献
16.
Seismotectonic Model and CN Earthquake Prediction in Italy 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
—The choice of the regions is essential in the application of the algorithm CN, therefore a seismotectonic criterion for their definition is tested. In order to take into account the geodynamic complexity characterising the Italian peninsula, we established to strictly follow the seismotectonic zones, including in each region only zones with similar seismogenic behaviour and the transitional zones connected to them. Three regions have been successfully defined in this way, corresponding approximately to the North, Centre and South of Italy. The reduction of the space-time uncertainty and the increase of the stability of prediction results obtained with this regionalisation, with respect to the previous applications of CN in Italy (Keilis-Borok et al., 1990; Costa et al., 1995, 1996), can be interpreted as a validation of the seismotectonic model. 相似文献
17.
Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
R. B. S. Yadav T. M. Tsapanos Yusuf Bayrak G. Ch. Koravos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(3):283-297
A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M max, β value of G–R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth (h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges, Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya. 相似文献
18.
本文利用非线性动力学模型研究了断层带的地震活动特性.断层系由多个耦合非线性单元模拟,每个基本单元由Maxwell体和刚性滑块组成.滑块的运动满足静、动摩擦强度本构关系.理论模拟的地震活动在短时间内是随机的,但当时间尺度足够大时,断层带的总体活动表现出某种规律性.多数实际观测到的地震活动现象均在这些非线性动力学模型中出现. 本文提出转换概率的观点来度量断层间和孕震区间的地震转移.模拟中发现活动地震带中存在条件安全区,这可能对地震预报的实践有重要的意义. 相似文献
19.
Slow earthquakes and great earthquakes along the Nankai trough 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We have reexamined reports indicating that slow deformation occurred before the great Japan earthquakes of 1944 (Tonankai) and 1946 (Nankaido) and find that the observations are well founded. Although no quantitative models have previously been proposed to explain all of the relevant data we show that they are satisfied by a simple model for both earthquakes. The model, based on known properties of subduction zones, has slow slip on the subduction interface in an area deeper than the seismic rupture. If this model is correct and a similar physical situation holds for an anticipated Tokai earthquake, existing instruments will be able to reveal the pre-slip in real time. While differences among the deformation time series at different sites will provide strong constraints on the slow rupture propagation, these differences could result in delaying the recognition of a coherent event. 相似文献
20.
A. Hofstetter A. Shapira K. Bulehite T. Jones K. Mafi A. Malitzky A. Papabatu G. Prasad M. Regnier G. Shorten A. Singh M. Stephen L. Vuetibau 《Journal of Seismology》2000,4(3):285-296
We studied the relationships between the frequency ofoccurrence and the magnitudes in seismogenic areasthat will affect four capital cities in the SouthPacific, namely: Honiara in Solomon Islands, Port Vilain Vanuatu, Suva in Fiji and Nuku'alofa in Tonga. Weused the NEIS catalogues for the period 1973–1997, formagnitudes greater than about 5, in the proximity tothe city under investigation. The definitions of thegeographic boundaries of the seismogenic zones arebased on the classical concepts of the distribution ofthe tectonic plates, the overwhelming number ofstudies that describe the seismotectonics in thoseactive regions and on the observed seismicity andstudies of the local people. Completeness of thecatalogue is assumed because of the high seismicity inthese areas, despite the relatively short time span.We have used a hybrid process combining least squaresfitting and Newtonian search process to find the bestfit of the statistical parameters. The characteristicb value is 1.27, and seems to be irrespective of thedepth and/or region. 相似文献