共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The statistical scheme is proposed for the forecast of surface air temperature and humidity using operative weather forecasts with 3–5-day lead time from the best forecasting hydrodynamic models as well as the archives of forecasts of these models and observational data from 2800 weather stations of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. The output of the scheme includes the forecasts of air temperature for the standard observation moments with the period of 6 hours and extreme temperatures with the lead times of 12–120 hours. The accuracy of temperature and humidity forecasts for the period from July 2014 till June 2017 is much higher than that for the forecasts of original hydrodynamic models. The skill scores for extreme temperature forecasts based on the proposed method are compared with the similar results of the Weather Element Computation (WEC) forecasting scheme and forecasts by weathermen. 相似文献
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V. N. Kryzhov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(5):291-297
Proposed is a method of downscaling of the global ensemble seasonal forecasts of air temperature computed using the SLAV model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The method is based on the regression and suggests a probabilistic interpretation of forecasts based on the assessment of uncertainty associated with the regression and model forecast ensemble spread. The verification of the method for 70 weather stations of North Eurasia using the rank probability skill score RPSS showed a significant advantage of downscaled forecasts over the forecasts interpolated from the model grid points. It is concluded that the use of the downscaling method is reasonable for the long-range forecasting of the station air temperature for North Eurasia. 相似文献
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Bias Correction in Wind Direction Forecasting Using the Circular-Circular Regression Method 
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下载免费PDF全文 Wind direction forecasting plays an important role in wind power prediction and air pollution management. Weather quantities such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed are linear variables in which traditional model output statistics and bias correction methods are applied. However, wind direction is an angular variable; therefore, such traditional methods are ineffective for its evaluation. This paper proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasting of turbine height from numerical weather prediction models, which is based on a circular-circular regression approach. The technique is applied to a 24-h forecast of 65-m wind directions observed at Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province, China, which consistently yields improvements in forecast performance parameters such as smaller absolute mean error and stronger similarity in wind rose diagram pattern. 相似文献
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临沂中尺度数值预报系统及应用 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
介绍了临沂中尺度数值预报系统及预报产品的释用和模式系统应用雷达资料情况,并对2005年6~10月的业务运行结果进行了检验,对小雨和中雨预报效果较好,TS评分较高,对夜间温度预报平均值绝对误差在1.52~2.52℃之间,平均均方根误差在2.01~2.93℃之间。该系统降水预报质量较高,气温预报误差小,准确率高,对定时、定点、定量的精细化预报具有较高的参考价值。应用自主开发的SDAF软件包,对系统的预报产品进行释用,研制了暴雨、空气质量、极端气温、干热风等预报方法。将多普勒雷达回波强度加入模式,改变模式水汽场,明显改进了预报。对径向速度反演降水系统内部风场进入中尺度模式进行了初步试验,得出了一些有益结论。 相似文献
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The results are presented of the estimation of surface air temperature variations in different climatically quasi-homogeneous regions of Russia using the nonparametric method of regression analysis (quantile regression). Daily observation records from 517 weather stations were used. The quantile regression technique used for analyzing the trends in long-term series allows obtaining information on trends for the whole range of quantile values from 0 to 1 of dependent variable distributions. Seasonal and regional features of daily minimum, mean, and maximum air temperature trends are considered in a wide range of quantile values. The proposed method that generalizes long-term trends obt ained for groups of stations by quantile regression, is applied to quasi-homogeneous climate regions identified on the territory of Russia. 相似文献
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随着我国智能网格预报业务的开展,海量高分辨率客观数据需要便捷的分析显示及产品制作平台高效处理。该文基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）设计并实现智能网格预报平台,采用MVVM（模型-视图-视图模型,model-view-viewmodel）设计模式,实现业务逻辑与视图的分离,通过对各子功能模块的划分,降低模块之间的耦合度,具有良好的可扩展性。平台实现了高分辨率网格预报数据的显示分析和产品输出,开发了基于等值线、网格、关键点等智能化预报制作工具,集成了降水时间拆分、温度极值订正等客观预报方法,开发了降水、温度、相对湿度等要素一致性处理方法,可有效帮助预报员提高工作效率,同时能够确保产品之间的一致性。平台继承MICAPS4的微内核组件服务、高性能渲染引擎和开放式插件扩展管理等优良特性,实现面向智能网格预报的业务编排、智能编辑和算法集成。目前,该平台已经实现业务应用,为全国智能网格预报业务提供重要支撑。 相似文献
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多时次多尺度波谱相似预报风要素 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
利用1975～2004年500hPa高度和850hPa温度格点场的历史资料,分别计算出不同纬度带的超长波和长波合成波,以此作为风要素预报的基本资料。根据谐波分析原理,结合相似系数法和相似距离法建立一套多时次、多尺度波谱相似预报模型,并提出相似离度概念。经过近两年的运行试验,该预报模型运行稳定,检验结果表明,对于由风压定律制约的风要素预报具有较大的参考作用,在大尺度天气形势控制下,与当地地形、地貌结合形成的风要素预报不失为一种简便易行的风向风速预报方法。利用多时次多尺度动态相似法制作风要素预报既考虑了物理量场不同尺度的空间相似,又考虑了连续时间的过程相似,因此这对中期天气过程的预报是有意义的。 相似文献
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宁夏区域精细化温度预报业务平台 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
介绍以宁夏中尺度数值模式温度预报为基础,以宁夏精细化预报系统温度预报产品为核心,结合自动气象站等多种资料,以图形方式显示、修改和制作宁夏各站逐时温度预报业务平台。该平台以宁夏各地区代表站与该地区其它站之间的回归方程的计算量为依据,在温度预报物理过程不变的情况下,通过修改曲线的方式,完成对大数据量温度预报值的订正。该平台的建成,为制作高时间密度的预报提供了技术支撑。 相似文献
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M. A. Lokoshchenko 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(1):35-42
Features of diurnal and annual cycles and of seasonal changes of temperature stratification in the lower 800-m air layer over Moscow are discussed on the basis of analysis of long-term data of acoustic (sodar) observations at Moscow State University (MSU). Of about 34 000 separate hours of height-time sweep of echo signal during 1988–2003, refined estimates are presented of occurrence frequencies of surface and elevated inversions, unstable stratification, etc., in Moscow. On the basis of long series of hourly sodar data and surface weather observations at MSU, special features of temperature stratification are considered under extremely low and high values of air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. A review is presented of existing data on temperature stratification in central Russia for the whole period of aerological observations; results of acoustic sounding are compared against the data obtained using other techniques. 相似文献
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强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展,综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识,我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展,融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用,对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效,基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。 相似文献
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该文总结回顾了中央气象台近年来的天气预报业务技术进展。天气预报质量的历史演变显示了预报业务水平的提高, 这种业务能力的提高既反映了预报技术的发展, 也带来了天气预报业务的变化。对业务天气预报中各种预报技术应用进展的分析表明:数值预报在天气预报业务能力提高中发挥着重要的基础性作用; 同时, 基于对不同尺度天气影响系统发展演变过程深入认识的基础上, 天气学的预报方法依然是预报业务中的重要技术方法; 动力诊断预报已成为灾害性天气预报中的重要手段之一, 数值预报产品的解释应用是实现气象要素精细定量预报的技术途径。 相似文献
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A method of forecasting the heavy convective precipitation zones is based on the computation of the Q-vector divergence and moist equivalent-potential vorticity in the layer from 925 to 700 hPa. The prognostic fields of meteorological parameters from NWP models in GRIB or GRIB2 codes are used for the computation. Presented are the results of the statistical analysis. The coefficients of linear regression are computed and the working equation for forecasting heavy convective precipitation zones during the cold season is derived. Analyzed are some heavy snowfalls in the central region of the European part of Russia. 相似文献
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A computer complex is described developed for the detailed temperature forecasting in large megalopolises. It consists of
the global and microclimatic models implementing the modeling of the thermal regime within Moscow. To increase the modeling
quality, an improved technique is proposed of computation of temperature characteristics within the urban canyon. A spatial
resolution of output modeling data reaches 500 m. A comparison with the station data demonstrates that the accuracy of air
temperature simulation in Moscow and in its nearest vicinities is quite satisfactory. 相似文献
16.
露、霜、结冰天气现象综合判别 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过自动气象站的连续观测资料,结合人工观测的天气现象,根据露、霜、结冰的成因筛选出符合条件的基本指标作为综合判据。选取气温、相对湿度、地面温度、草面温度和近地面温度作为主要因子,综合考虑降水和天气状况对这些天气现象形成的影响。采用两个气象观测站的分钟观测资料以及人工观测天气现象记录进行统计分析。经过初选因子和精选指标,利用多要素的组合方法,提炼出自然状态下出现露、霜、结冰现象的综合判别指标,获得了较好效果,拟合率在80%以上。为进一步认识这些天气现象的发生和变化规律提供参考,也能为天气现象观测自动化提供依据。 相似文献
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Presented are the explanations of reasons for the anomalous heat in summer of 2010 in the central area of the European part of Russia. It is demonstrated that this event occurred due to the beating of the solar annual (365 days) and lunar annual (355 days) fluctuations of air temperature. To substantiate this conclusion, the data are given on the synchronization of changes in atmospheric processes with the tidal variations of the Earth??s rotation velocity and on the nature of lunar cycles. Illustrated are the evidences of their existence in air temperature fluctuations. Revealed is the sequence of anomalously hot summer seasons in 1901, 1936 (1938), 1972, and 2010 corroborating the existence of the 35-year period of air temperature beats. Proposed is a mechanism of the impact of luni-solar tides on the air temperature based on the interaction between the gravitational luni-solar tides and the radiation conditions in the atmosphere (caused by the cloudiness amount variations). 相似文献
18.
南宁各种下垫面温度特征及预报方法探讨 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
介绍下垫面温度观测的原理,并用南宁2002年12月至2003年11月资料,分析了沥青、水泥、泥土温度的特征,包括这3种下垫面的日平均温度、日最高温度、日最低温度、温度日较差特征以及它们与气温的差值。指出气温是影响各种下垫面温度的最主要因素,云对下垫面日最高温度影响显著,大气环流变换对各种下垫面温度的波动有明显影响。对各种下垫面日最高温度的预报方法进行了初步探讨。建立了基于日最高气温预报之上的各种下垫面日最高温度预报模型,并对预报与实况值进行了对比分析,指出提高次日最高气温的预报准确率和预报是否出现阴天有中到大雨天气的预报准确率,可显著改善各种下垫面日最高温度的预报效果。 相似文献
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该文依据1983～1992年6～8月间276次强对流天气过程，研究北京地区强对流天气的形成条件及其展望预报方法。通过500 hPa逐日分型，将影响北京地区的大尺度环流型划分为5种类型。在各型中随机抽取出现和不出现强对流天气样本共298个，分别作合成分析，研究各环流型出现和不出现强对流天气的合成形势及差异。结果表明，出现和不出现强天气的环流系统特征、结构及物理量分布都有明显不同，从而概括出概念模式，导出各环流型预报着眼点。在此基础上，从各型计算的数十个物理量参数中，筛选出最佳预报因子，采用判断树预报流程，逐 相似文献
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中尺度天气的高空地面综合图分析 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
中尺度强天气的预报能力非常有限,一个重要原因是在业务预报中,缺乏对中尺度对流天气发生的环境场条件和发生发展特征进行及时有效的分析。本文介绍了国家气象中心正在试行的中尺度天气的天气图分析方法。中尺度天气的天气图分析主要利用探空资料和数值预报相关参量资料,分析中尺度对流天气发生发展的环境场条件,包括高空综合图分析和地面分析。在高空分析中重视风、温度、湿度、变温、变高的分析,并通过将不同等压面上最能反映水汽、抬升、不稳定和垂直风切变状况的特征系统和特征线绘制在一张图上形成综合图,以更直观的方式反映产生中尺度深厚对流系统发生发展潜势的高低空配置环境场条件。地面分析包括气压、风、温度、湿度、对流天气现象和各类边界线(锋)的分析。国家气象中心的强对流天气预报业务试验表明,中尺度天气的天气图分析已经成为强对流天气潜势预报的重要依据。 相似文献