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1.
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM RICE PADDY FIELDS IN THE YANGTZE DELTA OF CHINA 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
A numerical simulation model is presented in this paper,which comprises the processes ofcrop growth,soil organic carbon decomposition,and methane emissions in agroecosystems.Simulation results show that the model can simulate the main process of methane emissions well,and the correlation coefficient between the simulated values and observed data is 0.79 with 239samples,which passed a significance test of 0.01.The average error of methane emissionsimulation in whole growth period is about 15%.Numerical analysis of the model indicates that theaverage temperature during rice growth period has much impacts on methane emissions,and thebasic trend of interannual methane emissions is similar to that of average temperature.The amountof methane emissions reduces about 34.93%,when the fertilizer is used instead of manure in singlerice paddy. 相似文献
2.
Ｍｏｄｅｌ ｆｏｒ Ｍｅｔｈａｎｅ Ｅｍｉｓｓｉｏｎ ｆｒｏｍ Ｒｉｃｅ Ｆｉｅｌｄｓ ａｎｄ Ｉｔｓ Ａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎ ｉｎ Ｓｏｕｔｈｅｒｎ ＣｈｉｎａＤｉｎｇＡｉｊｕａｎｄＷａｎｇＭｉｎｇｘｉｎｇ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒ... 相似文献
3.
本文建立了一个区域尺度稻田生态系统CH4排放的初步模式，该模式能从理论上反映稻田CH4产生、传输与排放的机理，并提供了一种估计不同区域气候和土壤条件下稻田生态系统CH4排放总量的有效方法。模式主要包括三个部分:水稻的生长、土壤有机物的分解和CH4的产生、传输及排放过程。模式分别模拟了早稻和晚稻CH4的排放，模拟结果与实测比较接近，CH4的季平均排放量，模拟值与实测值的偏差在10% 左右。模式的敏感性实验表明，温度是稻田CH4排放规律的主要控制因子。 相似文献
4.
在美国DNDC模式基础上, 综合气象学、农业气象学及生态学最新研究进展, 将作物生长、碳氮循环及CH4排放有机耦合, 建立了一个CH4排放数值模式, 模式通过了相关显著性检验。利用模式重点分析了气象因子对稻田CH4排放的影响状况, 数值分析表明, 当仅考虑气象条件影响时: (1) 不同地区不同生长季节的CH4排放量均与相应生长期的平均气温成正相关关系; (2) 功率谱分析表明稻田CH4排放存在4~5年周期变化, 与相应生长季节的平均温度年际变化规律相一致; (3) CH4排放量年际之间变化趋势与生长季平均气温变化趋势基本一致。利用数值计算结果, 给出了杭州及昌德地区早稻、晚稻CH4简易统计模式, 为应用模型监测并调控农田生态系统中的CH4排放奠定了基础。 相似文献
5.
S. A. Saseendran K. K. Singh L. S. Rathore S. V. Singh S. K. Sinha 《Climatic change》2000,44(4):495-514
The CERES-Rice v3. crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for its suitability to simulate rice production in the tropical humid climate Kerala State of India, is used for analysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the state. The plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century, taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5°C, and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day, over the state of Kerala in the decade 2040–2049 with respect to the 1980s. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO2 about 460 PPM by the middle of the next century are also used in the crop model simulation. On an average over the state with the climate change scenario studied, the rice maturity period is projected to shorten by 8% and yield increase by 12%. When temperature elevations only are taken into consideration, the crop simulations show a decrease of 8% in crop maturity period and 6% in yield. This shows that the increase in yield due to fertilisation effect of elevated CO2 and increased rainfall over the state as projected in the climate change scenario nearly makes up for the negative impact on rice yield due to temperature rise. The sensitivity experiments of the rice model to CO2 concentration changes indicated that over the state, an increase in CO2 concentration leads to yield increase due to its fertilisation effect and also enhance the water use efficiency of the paddy. The temperature sensitivity experiments have shown that for a positive change in temperature up to 5°C, there is a continuous decline in the yield. For every one degree increment the decline in yield is about 6%. Also, in another experiment it is observed that the physiological effect of ambient CO2 at 425 ppm concentration compensated for the yield losses due to increase in temperature up to 2°C. Rainfall sensitivity experiments have shown that increase in rice yield due to increase in rainfall above the observed values is near exponential. But decrease in rainfall results in yield loss at a constant rate of about 8% per 2 mm/day, up to about 16 mm/day. 相似文献
6.
Rice paddies as a methane source 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Rice fields are considered to be among the highest sources of atmospheric methane, an important source of global warming. In order to meet the projected rice needs of the increasing world population, it is estimated that the annual world's rough rice production must increase to 760 million tons (a 65% increase) in the next 30 years. This will increase methane emissions from ricefields if current technologies are kept. Methane emissions from ricefields are affected by climate, water regime, soil properties, and various cultural practices like irrigation and drainage, organic amendments, fertilization, and rice cultivars. Irrigated rice comprises 50% of the world-harvested rice area and contributes 70% to total rice production. Because of assured flooding during the growing period it is the primary source of methane. Rainfed rice emits less methane due to periods of droughts. Upland rice, being never flooded for a significant period of time, is not a significant source of methane. There is great potential to develop no regret mitigation options that are in accordance with increasing rice production. 相似文献
7.
采用静态箱-气相色谱法在江汉平原开展早稻、晚稻、中稻、虾稻和再生稻5种稻作类型温室气体排放监测试验,研究不同稻作模式下稻田CH4和N2O排放特征、总增温潜势及温室气体排放强度,为准确评估稻田生态系统温室气体排放提供参考依据。结果表明:CH4排放集中在水稻前期淹水阶段,排放峰值最高为虾稻（85.7 mg·m-2·h-1）,较其他稻作模式高71.7%~191.5%。N2O排放峰值主要出现于中期晒田和施肥阶段,排放峰值最高为再生稻（1100.7 μg·m-2·h-1）,较其他稻作模式高16.8%~654.9%。CH4累积排放量从大到小依次为虾稻、再生稻、早稻、晚稻、中稻;N2O累积排放量从大到小依次为再生稻、早稻、晚稻、中稻、虾稻;总增温潜势从大到小依次为虾稻、再生稻、早稻、晚稻、中稻;温室气体排放强度从大到小依次为虾稻、早稻、再生稻、晚稻、中稻。CH4排放占比为82.9%~99.0%,稻虾田高排放主要原因为持续淹水时间长、秸秆还田和饲料投入,探究该模式CH4减排举措最为关键;中稻由于水旱轮作,稻田温室气体排放最低,可作为低碳减排的主要稻作类型。 相似文献
8.
Methane emissions from livestock enteric fermentation and manure management represent about 40% of total anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions from the agriculture sector and are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades, with most of
the growth occurring in non-Annex 1 countries. To mitigate livestock methane, incentive policies based on producer-level emissions
are generally not feasible because of high administrative costs and producer transaction costs. In contrast, incentive policies
based on sectoral emissions are likely administratively feasible, even in developing countries. This study uses an economic
model of global agriculture to estimate the effects of two sectoral mitigation policies: a carbon tax and an emissions trading
scheme based on average national methane emissions per unit of commodity. The analysis shows how the composition and location
of livestock production and emissions change in response to the policies. Results illustrate the importance of global mitigation
efforts: when policies are limited to Annex 1 countries, increased methane emissions in non-Annex 1 countries offset approximately
two-thirds of Annex 1 emissions reductions. While non-Annex 1 countries face substantial disincentives to enacting domestic
carbon taxes, developing countries could benefit from participating in a global sectoral emissions trading scheme. We illustrate
one scheme in which non-Annex 1 countries collectively earn USD 2.4 billion annually from methane emission permit sales when
methane is priced at USD 30/t CO2-eq. 相似文献
9.
在对国际先进的水稻生长模型ORYZA2000进行模型调试、验证, 实现本地化的基础上, 以双季稻发育速率参数为主, 结合地形、气候、水稻熟性分布和当地生产实际, 将江南双季稻区按发育参数划分为7个区域, 实现了ORYZA2000模式在我国江南双季稻地区的区域应用。利用该模型进行了不同年份气象条件影响定量评估的应用试验, 评价结果与实际符合, 定量客观。探讨了利用机理性作物生长模式动态预测产量的方法。通过建立不同发育期的水稻模拟生物量与相对气象产量的相关统计模型, 结合趋势产量预测, 实现了地区级双季稻不同发育期的产量动态预测。外推检验结果表明, 各地早晚稻不同发育期的产量动态预测模型平均误差为4.8%~6.1%, 可初步用于业务。 相似文献
10.
农田生态系统温室气体排放研究进展 总被引：39，自引：0，他引：39
自1985年起,中国科学院大气物理研究所利用自行设计制造的自动观测仪器系统,历时十六年先后对我国四大类主要水稻产区的甲烷排放规律及其与土壤、气象条件和农业管理措施的关系进行了系统野外观测实验,并对稻田甲烷产生、转化和输送机理进行了理论研究,探讨了控制稻田甲烷排放的实用措施,建立了估算和预测稻田甲烷排放的数值模型.在甲烷排放的时空变化规律和转化率研究方面有一系列新的发现,在稻田甲烷产生率、排放率及其与环境条件的关系方面取得一系列新的成果,以充分证据改变了国际上关于全球和中国稻田甲烷排放总量的估算.在对稻田甲 相似文献
11.
我国水稻生育期的生态规律及其区划 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
在总结水稻生育期生态规律研究成果的基础上,提出了一个水稻发育速度的优化模式。该模式综合考虑了温度和日长对水稻发育速度的影响,经回代检验,预报效果良好。以模式为仿制,用全国主要稻区１６５站１９５１￣１９８０年的光温资料求算早、中、晚稻的生育期,并绘出生育期的日数的距平百分率空间分布图,据图分析我国水稻生育期的时空变化规律并解释其生态原因。 相似文献
12.
基于遗传优化BP神经网络的水稻气象产量预报模型 总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5
利用1951—2010年江苏省水稻产量及同期14个气象站点的逐日平均气温、降水资料,采用因子膨化及相关分析,研究了水稻气象产量的影响因子及影响时段。在此基础上建立了逐步回归、PCA-BP神经网络以及PCA-GA-BP神经网络3种产量预报模型。结果表明:(1)7—9月份是水稻产量形成的关键时期,对气温、降水的变化最为敏感,气温对气象产量的影响大于降水;(2)两种神经网络模型预报效果好于回归模型;(3)遗传优化的神经网络模型比未优化模型的训练速度提高了70%左右,预报精度也提高了4.3%。 相似文献
13.
Mitigating Agricultural Emissions of Methane 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
A.R. Mosier J.M. Duxbury J.R. Freney O. Heinemeyer K. Minami D.E. Johnson 《Climatic change》1998,40(1):39-80
Agricultural crop and animal production systems are important sources and sinks for atmospheric methane (CH4). The major CH4 sources from this sector are ruminant animals, flooded rice fields, animal waste and biomass burning which total about one third of all global emissions. This paper discusses the factors that influence CH4 production and emission from these sources and the aerobic soil sink for atmospheric CH4 and assesses the magnitude of each source. Potential methods of mitigating CH4 emissions from the major sources could lead to improved crop and animal productivity. The global impact of using the mitigation options suggested could potentially decrease agricultural CH4 emissions by about 30%. 相似文献
14.
Changes in methane emissions into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems are assessed with models for the European and
Asian parts of Russia using the model unit of a methane cycle and calculations with a regional climate model. The calculations
were performed for the present-day base period (1991–2000), for the middle (2041–2050), and late (2091–2100) 21st century
using the SRES A2 anthropogenic emission scenario. The average emissions for the base period were equal to 8 Mt CH4/year for the European part of Russia and 10 Mt CH4/year for the Asian part. By the middle of the 21st century, they increased up to 11 and 13 Mt CH4/year, and by the late 21st century, up to 14 and 17 Mt CH4/year. These tendencies are associated with the increased warm period of the soil and dependence of the integral methane production
on temperature. It is predicted that the maximum depth of freezing will lessen in the southern regions of the European and
Asian parts of Russia by the late 21st century. 相似文献
15.
Methane Production, Emission and Possible Control Measures in the Rice Agriculture 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
Wang Mingxing Shangguan Xingjian Shen Renxing Wassmann Reiner Seiler Wolfgang 《大气科学进展》1993,10(3):307-314
In the rice field methane is produced in the soil layer with depths of 2-25 cm. The vertical profile of methane production rate in the paddy soil during the water covering period differs from that in the paddy soil in dry phase. Only a small part, about 30%. of the produced methane is emitted to the atmosphere through rice plant, air bubbles, and molecular diffusion. Therefore, the methane emission rate from the rice field depends not only on the methane production rate in the soil, but also on the transport efficiency of the rice plant, air bubble formation that in turn depends on the production rate, and molecular diffusion.Field measurements show that methane emission rates from a particular rice field have very large diurnal, seasonal and interannual variations, which are related to soil characteristics, water regime, farming procedure, local climate, and rice growing activities. The relationship between the methane emission rate and the above mentioned factors is very complicated. The emission rate 相似文献
16.
A two-dimensional global chemistry model is developed to study the distribution and long-term trends of methane. The model contains 34 species and 104 chemical and photochemical reactions. Using the model, the long-term trends of CH4, CO and OH in atmosphere are simulated, comparison between the model and observations shows that the simulation is successful. Experiments are done to investigate the causes of dramatic decrease in the growth rate of CH4 in 1992 such as OH increase due to stratospheric ozone depletion, decrease of temperature in the troposphere due to Mount Pinatubo eruption and descendent of CH4 sources fluxes. A new explanation is proposed and verified by this model that the decrease of CO emission plays an important role for the abnormal growth rate of CH4 in 1992. We find that the decreases of CH4 and CO emissions are the main reasons for the sudden decrease of growth rate of CH4 in 1992, which account for 73% and 27% respectively. 相似文献
17.
成都平原稻田甲烷排放的实验研究 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
任丽新 王庚辰 张仁健 段长麟 M. A. K. Khalil M. J. Shearer R. A. Rasmussen R. W. Dalluge 《大气科学》2002,26(6):731-743
根据1996～1999年四个稻季的观测资料,分析了成都平原单季稻甲烷排放的季节变化和年际变化特征.结果表明:在水稻生长季节甲烷排放通量变化很大,在分蘖期和成熟期一般会出现峰值.年际间的通量变化也很大,其年均排放通量的变化范围在2.35～33.95mg m-2 h-1之间.4年的平均排放通量为12 mg m-2 h-1,与四川乐山的7年平均值30mg m-2 h-1相比,存在着明显的地区差异.同时分析讨论了温度、施肥、水稻品种、土壤氧化还原电位(Eh)以及稻田水位等诸多因素对稻田甲烷排放的影响.结果表明:在成都平原水稻生长季节的平均气温对CH4的平均排放通量影响不大;而气温对CH4排放的日变化有相对重要的影响,但气温对甲烷排放日变化的影响与水稻植物体的生长阶段有关;发现了水稻植物体(根、茎、叶)重量对CH4排放的重要作用.讨论了合理使用肥料和施肥量,控制水位和Eh值对稻田CH4的减排作用,提出优化组合诸影响因子,以充分发挥其减排潜力. 相似文献
18.
A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to study recently observed changes in atmospheric methane and carbon monoxide trends. For the analysis we have adapted a one-dimensional transport/chemistry model in order to comply with changes in vertical transport, stratosphere-troposphere flux of ozone, the water vapour cycle and the short-wave radiative transfer. In addition we have formulated an improved relationship which expresses the steady state OH concentration in terms of longer lived compounds which has a fair agreement with the one-dimensional model results. An analysis of the observed changes and trends in methane and carbon monoxide shows that both emissions and changes in global OH concentrations can be main causes for the observed changes. Average methane emissions have slowed down, particularly in the NH, in the last five years, though perhaps not very significantly. Carbon monoxide emissions are decreasing faster in the last couple of years than in the period 1983–1990. The study suggests that climate fluctuations (tropospheric water vapour, temperature and convective activity) and the stratospheric ozone depletion (tropospheric UV radiation) have a significant influence on tropospheric composition and thus on trends in methane and carbon monoxide concentrations.The IMAU is partner in the Netherlands Centre for Climate Research (CCR). 相似文献
19.
Simulated Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Atmospheric Methane over China: Contributions from Key Sources简 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We used the global atmospheric chemical transport model,GEOS-Chem,to simulate the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of surface-layer methane （CH4） in 2004,and quantify the impacts of individual domestic sources and foreign transport on CH4 concentrations over China.Simulated surface-layer CH4 concentrations over China exhibit maximum concentrations in summer and minimum concentrations in spring.The annual mean CH4 concentrations range from 1800 ppb over western China to 2300 ppb over the more populated eastern China.Foreign emissions were found to have large impacts on CH4 concentrations over China,contributing to about 85％ of the CH4 concentrations over western China and about 80％ of those over eastern China.The tagged simulation results showed that coal mining,livestock,and waste are the dominant domestic contributors to CH4 concentrations over China,accounting for 36％,18％,and 16％,respectively,of the annual and national mean increase in CH4 concentration from all domestic emissions.Emissions from rice cultivation were found to make the largest contributions to CH4 concentrations over China in the summer,which is the key factor that leads to the maximum seasonal mean CH4 concentrations in summer. 相似文献
20.
1.IntroductionMethane(CH#)isanimportantgreenhousegasinatmosphere.ThemainremovalprocessofCH4inatmosphereisreactedwithOHwhichisdeterminedbytheabundanceofmethane,carbonmonoxide(CO)andnitrousoxides(NO.)whoseemissionshaveincreasedgreatlybecauseofhumanacti... 相似文献