共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Elisabeth Peters 《Computational Geosciences》2011,15(2):345-358
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) appears to give good results for matching production data at existing wells. However, the
predictive power of these models outside of the existing wells is much more uncertain. In this paper, for a channelized reservoir
for five different cases with different levels of information the production history is matched using the EnKF. The predictive
power of the resulting model is tested for the existing wells and for new wells. The results show a consistent improvement
for the predictions at the existing wells after assimilation of the production data, but not for prediction of production
at new well locations. The latter depended on the settings of the problem and prior information used. The results also showed
that the fit during the history match was not always a good predictor for predictive capabilities of the history match model.
This suggests that some form of validation outside of observed wells is essential. 相似文献
2.
G. M. van Essen S. Kahrobaei H. van Oeveren P. M. J. Van den Hof J. D. Jansen 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(5):1061-1073
We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV. 相似文献
3.
The conventional paradigm for predicting future reservoir performance from existing production data involves the construction of reservoir models that match the historical data through iterative history matching. This is generally an expensive and difficult task and often results in models that do not accurately assess the uncertainty of the forecast. We propose an alternative re-formulation of the problem, in which the role of the reservoir model is reconsidered. Instead of using the model to match the historical production, and then forecasting, the model is used in combination with Monte Carlo sampling to establish a statistical relationship between the historical and forecast variables. The estimated relationship is then used in conjunction with the actual production data to produce a statistical forecast. This allows quantifying posterior uncertainty on the forecast variable without explicit inversion or history matching. The main rationale behind this is that the reservoir model is highly complex and even so, still remains a simplified representation of the actual subsurface. As statistical relationships can generally only be constructed in low dimensions, compression and dimension reduction of the reservoir models themselves would result in further oversimplification. Conversely, production data and forecast variables are time series data, which are simpler and much more applicable for dimension reduction techniques. We present a dimension reduction approach based on functional data analysis (FDA), and mixed principal component analysis (mixed PCA), followed by canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to maximize the linear correlation between the forecast and production variables. Using these transformed variables, it is then possible to apply linear Gaussian regression and estimate the statistical relationship between the forecast and historical variables. This relationship is used in combination with the actual observed historical data to estimate the posterior distribution of the forecast variable. Sampling from this posterior and reconstructing the corresponding forecast time series, allows assessing uncertainty on the forecast. This workflow will be demonstrated on a case based on a Libyan reservoir and compared with traditional history matching. 相似文献
4.
压力是气藏的“灵魂”,地层压力是评价气井产能,分析气藏潜力的基础。然而,受到资料完整程度、方法适用条件等因素的限制,大部分气井无法准确获取地层压力。为了评价致密砂岩气藏地层压力,基于少量压力监测资料,采用数学反演思维,提出物质平衡反演法。首先,利用拟稳定流动状态下气井生产数据,拟合Blasingame图版,计算气井动态储量。而后,通过动态储量及一个测压数据进行反演,建立物质平衡方程,代入累产气量,评价地层压力,最后,以大宁–吉县区块致密砂岩气井为例,进行地层压力计算。结果表明:(1) 物质平衡反演法仅需一个测压点,可以评价气井的地层压力变化。(2) 气井原始地层压力差异大,单井地层压力变化复杂,存在多个压力系统。(3) 压力系统不一致与储层非均质性强有关。研究结果对于致密气单井压力计算和致密气藏压力评价提供了可靠的方法,为致密气藏开发方案调整和效益开发奠定了基础。 相似文献
5.
水平井含水率上升影响因素 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用塔里木油田塔中4油田(TZ4)底水油藏相关的地质、流体数据建立数值模型。在所建模型的基础上,应用数值模拟计算的累积产油、产水和产液量回归俞启泰水驱特征曲线,以反映水平井见水特征的参数b。以参数b为研究对象,采用正交试验的方法研究不同因素对b值的影响,筛选影响水平井见水特征的主要因素,认为原油粘度、油层厚度、非均质性及水平井水平段在油藏中的位置是影响水平井含水上升趋势的主要指标。最后建立主要因素与b值的关系式,结合俞启泰曲线b值图版,提出预测水平井见水规律的公式——图版法(F-b法)。应用F-b法对塔里木水平井含水率进行预测,并与其他相关方法及实际生产数据对比,认为F-b法可作为预测塔里木油田水平井含水率、估算可采储量的一种有效方法。 相似文献
6.
7.
在低渗透油藏开发中广泛使用菱形反九点井网,但针对不同位置生产井及注水井的裂缝缝长配比关系还缺少广泛深入的研究。基于长庆油田某低渗透油藏参数,建立了数值模拟模型,在菱形反九点井网中分别设置不同的边井、角井和注水井裂缝穿透比,研究不同裂缝配置模式对水驱开发效果的影响。流线模拟及数值模拟计算结果表明,在注水开发中,注水井缝长是影响油田产液量及水驱效果的关键因素;边井裂缝较角井裂缝更易见水,对油田综合含水影响较大,在菱形反九点井网中需要进行不等缝长优化设计;边井裂缝缝长对水驱效果的影响分为早、中、晚期(Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ)曲线段,随着注水井裂缝穿透比增加,早期(Ⅰ)曲线段增长,中期(Ⅱ)曲线段缩短,而晚期(Ⅲ)曲线段变化较小;随着角井裂缝穿透比增加,采出程度逐渐增大,当角井裂缝穿透比较大时,存在“反转”现象;随着注水井裂缝穿透比增加,角井裂缝优化穿透比减小,而边井裂缝优化穿透比增加。该研究成果对于指导低渗透油藏菱形反九点井网裂缝优化设计,提高波及系数和开发效果具有重要的指导意义。 相似文献
8.
化子坪区长2油层属于低渗、低产、低丰度的"三低"油藏。随着开发的进行,油藏进入高含水阶段,油藏采油能力不断下降,开发政策亟须调整。本文以化109区长2油藏为研究对象,利用实际生产数据和数值模拟技术,分析油藏开发现状,论证不同开发方案,提出相应开放政策。结果表明:经过多年注水开发,目前油藏年递减率为9. 2%,含水率91. 5%,年含水上升约0. 7%,开采程度10. 5%,地层压力保持水平较高。油藏剩余油丰富,主要集中在河道交汇处(河道边部)和井间微型正向构造处。经过油藏工程论证,油藏开发合理地层压力保持水平应为100%,合理注采比应为1. 0,合理注水强度应为4. 9 m3/m·d。应从扩边调整、注水调整和治理低产低效井三个方面调整注水开发政策,提高油藏开发水平。 相似文献
9.
混合震源采集（下称混采）技术是当前地震勘探的潮流。但是由混采获得的数据中包含相互重叠的由多个震源激发产生的炮记录,会对后续的地震数据处理产生严重干扰。本文针对现有的基于混采数据的稀疏反演一次波估计（EPSI）方法,提出了一种改进的基于三维稀疏反演的混采数据分离与一次波估计方法。我们将混采EPSI方法的地下一次波响应估计过程转化为基于L1范数的双凸优化问题,并用基于L1范数的谱投影梯度（SPGL1）算法进行求解,确保取得全局极值,从而稳定反演过程。此外,我们还用二维曲波变换和一维小波变换组成三维联合稀疏变换对反演过程进行约束,能在确保求解精度的同时较以往的三维曲波稀疏约束大大提高计算速度。将本文方法应用于模拟混采数据和海上实际混采数据,将试算结果与传统混采数据EPSI方法对比,全面验证了本文所述方法的有效性和优越性。 相似文献
10.
密井网区井震结合进行沉积微相研究及储层预测方法探讨——以大庆杏树岗油田杏56区为例 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
随着中国油气田开发程度的逐步加深,有效预测井间砂体的分布已成为高效开采与提高采收率的核心问题。文中以大庆杏树岗油田杏56区块为例,尝试利用井、震有机结合的方法进行精细沉积微相展布的研究,对进入特高含水阶段的油田进行井间砂体的预测。在密测网地震层位追踪的前提下提取多种地震属性,以反距离加权平均法提取井点属性,并采用聚类方法对提取的井点地震属性和井点储层参数进行多元统计相关性分析,以确定聚类分析中使用的地震信息,进而建立多元一次方程,描述敏感地震信息与储层参数的桥梁,以便用井、震信息综合预测井间储层参数的变化,由此编制出目的层段的沉积微相平面展布图,并结合生产动态资料进行验证。其成果在实际生产中得到较好的验证。 相似文献
11.
为了分析水层越流补给对煤层气井早期排水的影响,根据不稳定渗流理论,引入越流系数,建立了考虑层间越流现象的煤层中水的渗流数学模型。通过Laplace变换对模型求解,并利用Stehfest反演得到实空间的解,采用新的参数组合,分别绘制了压力和压力导数双对数曲线图版。从物理渗流机理上分析了层间越流对曲线形态的影响,随着越流系数的增大,径向流结束的时间越早;同时提出了利用典型图版拟合确定储层渗透率、表皮系数以及越流系数的方法。典型图版有助于定量评价越流的强弱,对煤层气井后续排采制度的调整具有指导意义。 相似文献
12.
基于沁水盆地南部潘河地区煤层气地质特征以及PH01井和PH02井排采资料,结合COMET3储层模拟软件,对两口井进行历史拟合和制度优化。结果表明,当PH01井初始最大产水量为3m^3/d时,最大累计产气量能达800.4×10^4m^3;PH02井初始最大产水量为5m3/d时,最大累计产气量达700.1×10^4m^3。在基础地质条件相近的前提下,两口井最大累计产气量相差100.3×10^4m^3,其原因为PH02井前期产水量比PH01井多,裂隙闭合较快,渗透率降低幅度较大,对储层伤害较大,出气较PH01井困难,产气时间较短,加之含气量不如PH01井,故最大累计产气量较低。 相似文献
13.
南海A区某开发气田为岩性一断圈气藏,受断层影响,为多个小型断块气藏的集合,每块气水界面不统一,气藏情况复杂。常规的AVO反演技术往往只能定性地识别含气性,无法定量地识别储层的含水饱和度。为了满足气田合理高效开发的需求,查清每块气藏的气水充注程度,在高分辨率三维地震资料中,采用了EEI反演技术来预测储层的含水饱和程度。研究结果表明,在该区运用EEI反演技术得到的EEI属性,能有效地识别出含水饱和度低于60％的气层,研究成果对气田进入开发后期调整井布署、提高采收率具有不可替代的作用。 相似文献
14.
水平井开发特殊类型油气藏有其独到优势,针对双重孔隙介质水平井复杂渗流,以Warren-Root双重介质模型为基础,建立了水平井三维不稳定渗流模型,采用Laplace变换、有限Fourier余弦变换及叠加积分等方法对模型进行求解,获得定产条件下无量纲井底压力解,再利用Duhamel褶积原理将定产条件压力解变换为井底定压条件下的产量解;通过重新定义无量纲量建立McCray型产量积分平均递减方程,结合Stehfest数值反演,获得无量纲产量积分平均递减曲线及其导数曲线图版。计算结果表明,产量积分平均导数曲线上出现双重介质特有的“凹子”, 应用该类图版拟合生产数据可方便进行产量预测及储层动态参数求取。 相似文献
15.
A better understanding of how hydrocarbons and other fluids such as brine move in the reservoirs within the Kov Field will enable the improved application of secondary recovery methods such as water and gas injections and also highlight areas within the field that have remaining hydrocarbons. This work focuses on the two major sandstone reservoir intervals, the AG-I and the AG-II all within the Agbada Formation, since they showed prominent amplitude changes. In the AG-I Formation, the results obtained from the production data and rock physics modeling show an increase in the amplitude impedance (AI) contrast around injection wells and a decrease in AI contrast around production wells due to fluid replacement, and it also deals with the pressure changes in correlation to the water injection performed to maintain the reservoir pressure, while in the AG-II Formation, the effect of hydrocarbon production serves to visualize and map the oil-water contact (OWC) as it evolves with the production time; the OWC is not observable on later seismic vintages because the reservoir drops below the OWC. Conclusively, the effect of hydrocarbon production throughout the reservoir and across the entire Field would be beneficial in mapping fluid changes in the Kov Field, which can be utilized for enhanced oil recovery and improved reservoir management. 相似文献
16.
煤层气藏渗流机理不同于常规气藏,产气量受到煤层解吸压力及吸附特性的影响,计算单井控制储量难度较大;同时,部分煤层气井受到储层压裂或断层沟通边底水及夹层水的影响,排采初期产水量高,且产水期长,呈现明显的水侵特征。为了评价煤层气井的产能及水侵程度,通过大量文献调研发现,目前对高产水的生产井研究较少。在前人的研究基础上,引入视地质储量法和生产指示曲线法,建立适应外来水侵的煤层气井生产模型,考虑储层的非常规特性,利用少量的生产资料计算水侵量和单井控制储量,为煤层气开采提供重要气藏参数。研究结果表明:视地质储量法和生产指示曲线法所需资料简单,2种方法计算出来的控制储量基本吻合,水侵量能够真实反映生产井的水侵特征,对煤层气的开发具有重要的指导意义。 相似文献
17.
煤层气井排采历史地质分析 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
根据晋城、潞安、焦作、铁法4个矿区25口煤层气生产试验井的排采资料,从煤储层渗透性和含气饱和度、生产压降条件、地下水系统、储层能量系统等方面综合分析研究,将排采曲线归纳为4种具有代表性的类型。认为煤储层渗透率0．5mD以上、临储压力比0．6以上以及含气饱和度80％以上,是获得高产煤层气井的必要储层条件。同时,煤储层和围岩的不同组合。将直接影响煤层气井的生产状况。 相似文献
18.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(3):1113-1124
Estimation of petrophysical parameters is an important issue of any reservoirs. Porosity, volume of shale and water saturation has been evaluated for reservoirs of Upper Assam basin, located in northeastern India from well log and seismic data. Absolute acoustic impedance (AAI) and relative acoustic impedance (RAI) are generated from model based inversion of 2-D post-stack seismic data. The top of geological formation, sand reservoirs, shale layers and discontinuities at faults are detected in RAI section under the study area. Tipam Sandstone (TS) and Barail Arenaceous Sandstone (BAS) are the main reservoirs, delineated from the logs of available wells and RAI section. Porosity section is obtained using porosity wavelet and porosity reflectivity from post-stack seismic data. Two multilayered feed forward neural network (MLFN) models are created with inputs: AAI, porosity, density and shear impedance and outputs: volume of shale and water saturation with single hidden layer. The estimated average porosity in TS and BAS reservoir varies from 30% to 36% and 18% to 30% respectively. The volume of shale and water saturation ranges from 10% to 30% and 20% to 60% in TS reservoir and 28% to 30% and 23% to 55% in BAS reservoir respectively. 相似文献
19.
A major limitation for wide application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing in mapping landslide surface displacements is the intrinsic gap between the ultimate objective of measuring three-dimensional displacements and the limited capability of detecting only one or two-dimensional displacements by repeat-pass SAR observations of identical imaging geometries. Although multi-orbit SAR observations of dissimilar viewing geometries can be jointly analyzed to inverse the three-dimensional displacements, the reliability of inversion results might be highly questionable in case of continuous motion because of the usually asynchronous acquisitions of multi-orbit SAR datasets. Aiming at this problem, we proposed an approach of retrieving time series three-dimensional displacements from multi-angular SAR datasets for step-like landslides in the Three Gorges area in this article. Firstly, time series displacements of a common ground target in the azimuth and line-of-sight (LOS) direction can be estimated using traditional methods of SAR interferometry (InSAR) and SAR pixel offset tracking (POT), respectively. Then, a spline fitting and interpolation procedure was employed to parameterize the displacement history in the sliding/dormant periods of step-like landslides and estimate displacements from multi-angular observations for identical date series. Finally, three-dimensional displacements can be inverted from these synchronized multi-angular measured displacements in traditional ways. As a case study, the proposed method was applied to retrieve the three-dimensional displacements history of the Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges area, China. Comparisons between SAR-measured displacements and measurements of global positioning system (GPS) showed good agreement. Furthermore, temporal correlation analyses suggest that reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall are the two most important impact factors for the Shuping landslide stability. 相似文献
20.
Computational Geosciences - In order to quantify the performance ranking of oil wells in high water cut reservoir, a quantitative evaluation method of oil wells is established from two perspectives... 相似文献