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1.
The paper analyzes the possibility of extracting a geophysical field component from a time series considered as a phase projection of a dynamic system. Based on model calculations, the method of averaging of phase trajectories is shown to be applicable for the recovery of time variations of a dynamic system and more reliable determination of its quantitative characteristics if the variations are superimposed by a high-dimension process (a purely random process) and a low-dimension process (linear interpolation). The analysis of the extraction of dynamic system variations from strain records obtained at various points of seismically active regions of China provided the following estimates of dynamic parameters: the phase space dimension is m = 5–7, and the correlation dimension varies, depending on the observation point, within the range d 2 = 2.6–3.5.  相似文献   

2.
We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h m F, while h Am is always less than h m F. The difference between h Am and h m F linearly increases with increasing h m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.  相似文献   

3.
The seismological data in the area of induced seismicity in the region of the Nurek reservoir are analyzed. The analysis is based on the developed database for the earthquakes that occurred from 1955 to 1989 and is aimed at finding the regularities in the variations of the parameters of the transitional seismic regime caused by filling a reservoir. These parameters include the b-value—the slope of the graph of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relationship, the fractal dimension d of the set of the epicenters, and fracture cycle parameter q = αb ? d, where coefficient α determines the ratio between the magnitude and source size M = α log l + β. It is shown that during the filling of a reservoir, these parameters undergo statistically reliable variations: at the initial stages, the b-value increases, the fractal dimension of the set of epicenters decreases, and the fracture cycle parameter q grows and becomes positive in the middle of the time interval of reservoir filling. After a reservoir is filled, these parameters recover their background values. The aftershock sequences of the three strongest earthquakes—before, in the beginning, and in the middle of the reservoir filling period—are studied. It is confirmed that the Omori parameter p for the aftershock sequences during filling is smaller than for the earthquake before filling. Based on the dynamics of the studied parameters, it is conjectured that the relaxation time of the transitional seismic regime after the emergence of induced seismicity is about 10 years.  相似文献   

4.
Results of investigation of the lithosphere in the Kamchatka seismic focal zone from dynamic characteristics of earthquake records obtained at regional stations are presented. It is assumed that the specificity of the source zone can be estimated by the relation Cr = K P ? bK S ? c characterizing relative energies (energy classes, according to [Fedotov, 1972]) of short period transverse and longitudinal waves in the source. Azimuthal, spatial, and temporal variations in Cr and their relation to focal mechanisms are examined. Spatiotemporal variations in this parameter are shown to be caused by the influence of variations in the conditions in the source zone (its substance or process) on the radiation of P and S waves.  相似文献   

5.
The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

6.
The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E y component, dynamic pressure P d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E y value at E y < 12 mV m?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E y > 12 mV m?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.  相似文献   

7.
To describe the cumulative distribution of the number of lithospheric plates over areas S, the dependence N(≥S) ～ S ?0.33 was proposed by Bird [2003]. Based on dimension considerations, the dependence N(≥S) ～ (?/S)1/3, where ? is the generation rate of kinetic energy of convection in the mantle estimated at 10?11 m2/s3, is proposed. The analogy of plate formation with developed hydrodynamic turbulence and other processes involving an energy input into the system and its dissipation is considered. Simple experiments on random partitioning of a surface into polygons gave their cumulative distributions over areas resembling those observed for lithospheric plates. This has led to the conclusion that the plate distribution pattern is characteristic of the random partitioning of surfaces.  相似文献   

8.
The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the B ss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (F x ) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the B ss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.  相似文献   

9.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

10.
We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M w 7.7, M w 8.5, and M w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m max of M w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.  相似文献   

11.
The hardware complex that was produced by OOO Polynom, Khabarovsk, for registration of the level, temperature, and electrical conductivity of ground water in wells and meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, air temperature) at a measurement frequency from 5 min to 1 h is described. The equipment is installed in the wells of Kamchatka and has been used for several years to register variations caused by earthquakes in the parameters of ground waters. Different variations in measured parameters of ground waters due to strong earthquakes of February 28, 2013, M W = 6.8 and May 24, 2013, M W = 8.3 are registered with this equipment in wells YuZ-5 and E-1. The registered variations and their systematization are described taking into account the mechanisms of a seismic impact on the state of the well–water-saturated rock system.  相似文献   

12.
The results of studying the atmospheric and ionospheric variability in the region of Eastern Siberia are presented. The analysis involved data on the atmosphere temperature at mesopause heights (Tm) and vertical sounding data on the peak electron density (NmF2). The data on temperature were obtained by spectrometric observations of the hydroxyl molecule emission (band ОН (6-2), 834.0 nm, maximum emission height ~87 km). The analysis covers the period from 2008 to 2015. Seasonal and year-to-year variations in the variability of Tm and NmF2 were studied and compared in different time periods: day-to-day variations (T > 24 h), tidal variations (8 h ≤ T ≤ 24 h), and variations with periods of internal gravity waves (T < 8 h). Both common features and distinctions in the behavior of the analyzed parameters have been found, and their possible physical causes are analyzed.  相似文献   

13.
Based on the Nimbus-7 (1978–1992) data and the parameters of solar activity (Wolf numbers W, solar radioemission F 10.7) and the ionosphere (f 2 index of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F 2 layer normalized to noon), the fractal dimension (FD) of the variations in the solar total irradiance (L) has been determined on the moving annual interval using the Higuchi technique. It has been established that FD estimates substantially vary in time. Quasibiennial variations (QBVs), which similarly manifest themselves in all considered processes, are detected in these variations. It is interesting that all fractal QBVs are in phase with QBVs of solar irradiance (L) and are almost in antiphase with QBVs of initial (filtered) W, F 10.7, and f 2 indices. The presence of QBVs in the solar processes and in their FD and noncoincidence of the former with the latter in phase indicate that QBVs have a two-component structure. The obtained results also indicate that an analysis of the annual FD estimates of the solar and ionospheric processes in studying variations in these processes is reliable.  相似文献   

14.
The attractor is reconstructed from the time series of the information entropy of the seismic kinetics process. It is shown that the seismic kinetics process is governed by three order parameters and is characterized by a strange attractor in the three-dimensional phase space. The Dq-spectrum of the multifractal measure induced by the attractor, which describes the topological structure of the latter, is obtained. The monofractal dimension of the attractor is Dq(0) = 2.31…, and the correlation dimension is Dq(2) = 2.16…. The estimate of the largest Lyapunov exponent of the attractor λ1 = 0.331…. The positive signature of the largest Lyapunov exponent suggests that the attractor is chaotic and the behavior of the phase trajectory is unpredictable.  相似文献   

15.
The results of studying the Pc4–5 pulsation parameters based on the method of bistatic backscatter of radio waves, using the EISCAT/Heating HF facility (Tromsø, Norway) and IMAGE ground-based magnetometers (Scandinavia), are presented. The observations were performed during the morning hours on October 3, 2006, when a substorm developed on the nightside. An analysis of the observational data obtained from 1000 to 1020 UT indicated that wave-like disturbances with periods corresponding to Pc4–5 pulsations (80–240 s) existed at that time. The variations in the full vector of the ionospheric irregularity motion and the electric field strength in an artificially disturbed high-latitude ionospheric F region has been reconstructed based on simultaneous Doppler observations on two paths. A general conformity is observed among the time variations in Pc4–5 pulsations in the magnetic and ionospheric data: between the velocity amplitude (|V|) and the X component of the Earth’s magnetic field and between the irregularity motion azimuth and the Y component. Large-scale waves, corresponding to the natural resonances of magnetic field lines (small values of the azimuthal number |m| ～ 2–4), and small-scale waves (large values |m| ～ 17–20) were simultaneously registered during the experiment based on magnetic data. It has been indicated that the periods of wave-like processes registered using the method of bistatic backscatter and ground-based magnetometers were in agreement with one another. The formation of wave-like processes is explained by the nonstationary impact of the solar wind and IMF on the Earth’s magnetosphere. The variations in the IMF, according to the ACE satellite measurements, were characterized by a sharp increase in the solar wind plasma dynamic pressure that occurred at about 09 UT on October 3, 2006, and was accompanied by rapid polarity reversals of the north-ward-southward (B z) and transverse (B y) IMF components.  相似文献   

16.
Many-year variations of water pollution and the state of more than two hundred of rivers (or their segments) in different latitudinal zones in European Russia are estimated. In accordance with latitudinal zonality, space and time trends in variations of water quality and the state of rivers are identified. By the level of water pollution, most river ecosystems (or their segments) were classified as polluted and very polluted, very polluted and dirty, dirty and very dirty. A tendency toward water quality improvement could be seen in the recent decade. More than 50% of the examined river ecosystems are at the transitional state of passing from natural (and/or equilibrium) to crisis state.  相似文献   

17.
The homologues temperature of a crystalline material is defined as T/T_m, where T is temperature and T_m is the melting(solidus) temperature in Kelvin. It has been widely used to compare the creep strength of crystalline materials. The melting temperature of olivine system,(Mg,Fe)_2SiO_4, decreases with increasing iron content and water content, and increases with confining pressure. At high pressure, phase transition will lead to a sharp change in the melting curve of olivine. After calibrating previous melting experiments on fayalite(Fe_2SiO_4), the triple point of fayalite-Fe_2SiO_4 spinel-liquid is determined to be at 6.4 GPa and 1793 K. Using the generalized means, the solidus and liquidus of dry olivine are described as a function of iron content and pressure up to 6.4 GPa. The change of T/T_m of olivine with depth allows us to compare the strength of the upper mantle with different thermal states and olivine composition. The transition from semi-brittle to ductile deformation in the upper mantle occurs at a depth where T/T_m of olivine equals 0.5. The lithospheric mantle beneath cratons shows much smaller T/T_m of olivine than orogens and extensional basins until the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary where T/T_m 0.66, suggesting a stronger lithosphere beneath cratons. In addition, T/T_m is used to analyze deformation experiments on olivine. The results indicate that the effect of water on fabric transitions in olivine is closely related with pressure. The hydrogen-weakening effect and its relationship with T/T_m of olivine need further investigation. Below 6.4 GPa(200 km), T/T_m of olivine controls the transition of dislocation glide from [100] slip to [001] slip. Under the strain rate of 10~(-12)–10~(-15) s~(-1) and low stress in the upper mantle, the [100](010) slip system(A-type fabric) becomes dominant when T/T_m 0.55–0.60. When T/T_m 0.55–0.60, [001] slip is easier and low T/T_m favors the operation of [001](100) slip system(C-type fabric). This is consistent with the widely observed A-type olivine fabric in naturally deformed peridotites, and the C-type olivine fabric in peridotites that experienced deep subduction in ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic terranes. However, the B-type fabric will develop under high stress and relatively low T/T_m. Therefore, the homologues temperature of olivine established a bridge to extrapolate deformation experiments to rheology of the upper mantle. Seismic anisotropy of the upper mantle beneath cratons should be simulated using a four-layer model with the relic A-type fabric in the upper lithospheric mantle, the B-type fabric in the middle layer, the newly formed A- or B-type fabric near the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and the asthenosphere dominated by diffusion creep below the Lehmann discontinuity. Knowledge about transition mechanisms of olivine fabrics is critical for tracing the water distribution and mantle flow from seismic anisotropy.  相似文献   

18.
A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q m after the M=5.1 event is 204.  相似文献   

19.
The relationship between the characteristics of seismic waves in the Western Caucasus and the geological-tectonic structure of the region is studied for identifying the specificity of seismic propagation in the mountainous regions with a complicated geological structure and forecasting the characteristics of the propagation from the geological and tectonic data. The interpretation is presented for the estimates of the Q-factor of the medium (Q(f) ~ 55f0.9 in the region of Sochi and Q(f) ~ 90f0.7 in the region of Anapa), seismic wave enhancement in the upper crustal layers (A(f) ~ 1), and peak ground acceleration residuals, which were previously determined from the records of the local earthquakes and show the distributions of local variations in the parameters of seismic wave radiation and propagation. The obtained characteristics are interpreted in the context of the up-to-date information about the tectonic, geological, and deep structure of the epicentral zones in the Western Caucasus and neighboring territory of the Black Sea. The discrepancies revealed in the low-frequency behavior of the Q-factor in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa is accounted for by the spatial scale and character of tectonic dislocations of the rocks in these regions. The local variations in the parameters of seismic radiation and propagation are probably related to the geological features of the region such as the fault structures, including the thrusts, shatter zones, oblique seismic boundaries, variations in the thickness and consolidation of the sedimentary cover, as well as the peculiarities in the structure and material composition of the basement.  相似文献   

20.
Actual evapotranspiration(ET_a) over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is an important component of the water cycle,and greatly influences the water budgets of the TP lake basins.Quantitative estimation of ET_a within lake basins is fundamental to physically understanding ET_a changes,and thus will improve the understanding of the hydro logical processes and energy balance throughout the lake basins.In this study,the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of ET_α within the Lake Selin Co(the TP's largest lake) and its surrounding small lakes and land area during 2003-2012 are examined at the basin scale.This was carried out using the well-established Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model(WEB-DHM) for the land area,the Penman method for the water area when unfrozen,and a simple sublimation estimation approach for the water area when frozen.The relationships between ET_a changes and controlling factors are also discussed.Results indicate that the simulated land ET_a from the WEB-DHM reasonably agrees with the estimated ET_a values from the nonlinear complementary relationship model using appropriately calibrated parameter values at a point scale.Land ET_a displayed a non-significant increase of 7.03 mm year~(-1),and largely depends on precipitation.For the water area,the combined effects of reduced wind speed and net radiation offset the effect of rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit,and contributed to a non-significant decrease in evaporation of 4.17 mm year~(-1).Sensitivity analysis shows that vapor pressure deficit and wind speed are the most sensitive variables to the changes of evaporation from the water area.  相似文献   

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