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1.
Projecting the future distribution of permafrost under different climate change scenarios is essential, especially for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The altitude-response model is used to estimate future permafrost changes on the QTP for the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The simulation results show the following: (1) from now until 2070, the permafrost will experience different degrees of significant degradation under the four RCP scenarios. This will affect 25.68%, 40.54%, 45.95%, and 62.84% of the current permafrost area, respectively. (2) The permafrost changes occur at different rates during the periods 2030–2050 and 2050–2070 for the four different RCPs. (1) In RCP2.6, the permafrost area decreases a little during the period 2030–2050 but shows a small increase from 2050 to 2070. (2) In RCP4.5, the rate of permafrost loss during the period 2030–2050 (about 12.73%) is higher than between 2050 and 2070 (about 8.33%). (3) In RCP6.0, the permafrost loss rate for the period 2030–2050 (about 16.52%) is similar to that for 2050–2070 (about 16.67%). (4) In RCP8.5, there is a significant discrepancy in the rate of permafrost decrease for the periods 2030–2050 and 2050–2070: the rate is only about 3.70% for the first period but about 29.49% during the second.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

Mangroves are critical in the ecological, economic and social development of coastal rural and urban communities. However, they are under threat by climate change and anthropogenic activities. The Sunda Banda Seascape (SBS), Indonesia, is among the world’s richest regions of mangrove biomass and biodiversity. To inform current and future management strategies, it is critical to provide estimates of how mangroves will respond to climate change in this region. Therefore, this paper utilized spatial analysis with model-based climatic indicators (temperature and precipitation) and mangrove distribution maps to estimate a benchmark for the mangrove biomass of the SBS in six scenarios, namely the Last Inter-glacial Period, the current scenario (1950–2000) and all four projected Representative Concentration Pathways in 2070 due to climate change. Despite mangroves gaining more biomass with climate change (the increase in CO2 concentration), this paper highlighted the great proportion of below-ground biomass in mangrove forests. It also showed that the changes in spatial distribution of mangrove biomass became more variable in the context of climate change. As mangroves have been proposed as an essential component of climate change strategies, this study can serve as a baseline for future studies and resource management strategies.  相似文献   

3.
Understanding climate change and revealing its future paths on a local level is a great challenge for the future. Beside the expanding sets of available climatic data, satellite images provide a valuable source of information. In our study we aimed to reveal whether satellite data are an appropriate way to identify global trends, given their shorter available time range. We used the CARPATCLIM (CC) database (1961–2010) and the MODIS NDVI images (2000–2016) and evaluated the time period covered by both (2000–2010). We performed a regression analysis between the NDVI and CC variables, and a time series analysis for the 1961–2008 and 2000–2008 periods at all data points. The results justified the belief that maximum temperature (TMAX), potential evapotranspiration and aridity all have a strong correlation with the NDVI; furthermore, the short period trend of TMAX can be described with a functional connection with its long period trend. Consequently, TMAX is an appropriate tool as an explanatory variable for NDVI spatial and temporal variance. Spatial pattern analysis revealed that with regression coefficients, macro-regions reflected topography (plains, hills and mountains), while in the case of time series regression slopes, it justified a decreasing trend from western areas (Transdanubia) to eastern ones (The Great Hungarian Plain). This is an important consideration for future agricultural and land use planning; i.e. that western areas have to allow for greater effects of climate change.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

In the present study, the multi-temporal satellite images of IRS P6 LISS III were used to map waterlogging dynamics over different seasons. An area of 594.36 km2 (6.75%) and 4.17 km2 (0.04%) was affected by surface waterlogging during pre and postmonsoon season, respectively. The average annual groundwater level fluctuations were calculated using 18 years (1990–2007) pre and postmonsoon groundwater level data to identify the areas which are under groundwater induced waterlogging conditions. The soil map clearly indicates that salinity and sodicity exhibit the highest severity and occur in areas with shallow groundwater levels. The hydrogeomorphical units mapped using IRS P6 LISS III satellite images are flood plain, alluvial plain, paleochannels, and oxbow lakes. The study revealed that 44.65% areas have very good to excellent groundwater resources. The litholog data clearly indicate an alternating sequence of clay and sand in which deep aquifers made up of coarse sand would be best suited for adequate water supply and good groundwater quality. The integrated study utilizing digital spatial data pertaining to waterlogging, soil salinity, water level fluctuation, and lithological variation proved that planning of any surface and subsurface water resources development activity should be taken up after assessments of said parameters.  相似文献   

5.
The development of groundwater favourability map is an effective tool for the sustainability management of groundwater resources in typical agricultural regions, such as southern Perak Province, Malaysia. Assessing the potentiality and pollution vulnerability of groundwater is a fundamental phase of favourability mapping. A geographic information system (GIS)-based Boolean operator of a spatial analyst module was applied to combine a groundwater potentiality map (GPM) model and a groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (GVPI) map, thereby establishing the favourable zones for drinking water exploration in the investigated area. The area GPM model was evaluated by applying a GIS-based Dempster–Shafer–evidential belief function model. In the evaluation, six geoelectrically determined groundwater potential conditioning factors (i.e. overburden resistivity, overburden thickness, aquifer resistivity, aquifer thickness, aquifer transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity) were synthesized by employing the probability-based algorithms of the model. The generated thematic maps of the seven hydrogeological parameters of the DRASTIC model were considered as pollution potential conditioning factors and were analysed with the developed ordered weighted average–DRASTIC index model algorithms to construct the GVPI map. Approximately 88.8 and 85.71% prediction accuracies for the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps were established using the reacting operating characteristic curve method and water quality status–vulnerability zone relationship scheme, respectively. Finally, the area groundwater favourability map (GFM) model was produced by applying a GIS-based Boolean operator on the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps. The GFM model reveals three distinct zones: ‘not suitable’, ‘less suitable’ and ‘very suitable’ zones. The area analysis of the GFM model indicates that more than 50% of the study area is covered by the ‘very suitable’ zones. Results produce a suitability map that can be used by local authorities for the exploitation and management of drinking water in the area. The study findings can also be applied as a tool to help increase public awareness of groundwater issues in developing countries.  相似文献   

6.
基于AHP和GIS的扬泰地区浅层地下水脆弱性评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
地下水脆弱性评价是保护地下水资源的重要手段,本文根据扬泰地区浅层地下水的水文地质条件,对DRASTIC模型进行了修改。选取地下水位埋深、大气降水入渗净补给量、含水层介质、含水层厚度、地形坡度、包气带介质影响、含水层富水性7个因子作为评价因子,利用层次分析法确定各因子的权重值,建立了符合扬泰地区浅层地下水脆弱性评价模型;利用ArcGIS10．0软件的空间叠加分析功能,编制了扬泰地区浅层地下水脆弱性评价等级图,评价结果与该地区实际水文地质条件基本吻合,对扬泰地区的地下水资源保护和区域规划具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

7.
Land subsidence has been occurring in Beijing since the 1970s. Five major land subsidence areas have been formed: Dongbalizhuang–Dajiaoting, Laiguangying, Changping Shahe–Ba Xianzhuang, Daxing Yufa–Lixian, and Shunyi–Ping Gezhuang. In this paper, we studied on land subsidence in Dongbalizhuang–Dajiaoting and Laiguangying using small baseline subset interferometry and interferometric point target methods of 47 ENVISAT ASAR and 29 RADARSAT-2 data. The results showed that the degree of land subsidence in these areas varied significantly. The mean land subsidence rate ranged from 143.43 to 8.2 mm/a and from 132.11 to 7.3 mm/a during 2005–2010 and 2011–2013, respectively. We correlated the observed settlement with the land use (agricultural, residential, and industrial). Displacement in the agricultural areas was greater than that in the other areas from 2005 to 2013. Moreover, we compared the observed deformation and the groundwater level in phreatic and confined aquifers. There was a strong correlation between ground subsidence and the groundwater level and the ground settlement increased with a decrease in the groundwater level and the maximum correlation coefficient can reach 0.525. Furthermore, subsidence appeared to be associated with compressible deposits, suggesting that for 90–210-m thick compressible deposits, ground settlement is more likely to occur as the thickness of the compressible layer increases.  相似文献   

8.
The area of upper Vaigai river basin covering parts of Madurai and Theni Districts, in Tamil Nadu, faces acute water scarcity and chronically drought prone. The groundwater resources in the area have not been fully exploited. The present investigation has been made to evaluate the potential zones for groundwater targeting using IRS - ID LISS III geocoded data on 1:50,000 scale. The geology, geomorphology, lineament tectonic maps are generated and integrated to evaluate the hydrogeomorphological characteristics of the upper Vaigai river basin and demarcate the groundwater potential zones. A number of geomorphic units have been observed. Out this the more groundwater prospective units are buried pediment medium, buried pediment deep, flood plain, bajada and lineament and intersection of lineaments. Non potential areas like pediment, pediment inselberg, shallow pediment and pediplain were identified.  相似文献   

9.
地下水是水资源的重要组成部份,地下水污染危害人的健康,影响人们的生产和生活,查明某一地区地下水容易受污染的可能性即地下水脆弱性,能为管理决策部门提供合理开发地下水资源,防治地下水污染的科学规划和管理依据。在脆弱性评价工作中,应用当前国际上最先进的地理信息系统平台ArcGIS,并结合地统计分析原理,完成地下水系统脆弱性编...  相似文献   

10.
The aims of this study were to apply, verify and compare a frequency ratio model for landslide hazards, considering future climate change and using a geographic information system in Inje, Korea. Data for the future climate change scenario (A1B), topography, soil, forest, land cover and geology were collected, processed and compiled in a spatial database. The probability of landslides in the study area in target years in the future was then calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by a daily rainfall threshold. Landslide hazard maps were developed for the two study areas, and the frequency ratio for one area was applied to the other area as a cross-check of methodological validity. Verification results for the target years in the future were 82.32–84.69%. The study results, showing landslide hazards in future years, can be used to help develop landslide management plans.  相似文献   

11.
Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.  相似文献   

12.
Mortality from extreme heat is a leading cause of weather-related fatality, which is expected to increase in frequency with future climate scenarios. This study examines the spatiotemporal variations in heat-related health risk in three Midwestern cities in the USA between the years 1990 to 2010; cities include Chicago, Illinois, Indianapolis, IN and Dayton, OH. In order to examine these variations, we utilize the recently developed extreme heat vulnerability index (EHVI) that uses a principal components solution to vulnerability. The EHVI incorporates data from the US Decadal Census and remotely sensed variables to determine heat-related vulnerability at an intra-urban level (census block group). The results demonstrate significant spatiotemporal variations in heat health risk within the cities involved.  相似文献   

13.
Groundwater exploration in the Western Doon valley has been carried out to delineate the groundwater potential and groundwater quality zones suitable for domestic purposes based on the integrated use of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The Western Doon Valley, occupying broad synclinal troughs in the evolving fold-thrust system of sub-Himalaya, which is filled by post-Siwalik fluvial and debris flow deposits in the late Quaternary-Holocene. The Western Doon Valley area is bounded by the Mussoorie range in the north with 1800–2800 m elevation and in the south by young topographic relief of the frontal Siwalik range with ~800 m average elevation. Groundwater quality of Western Doon valley through pictorially representation in the GIS environment, it is inferred that calcium, magnesium, total hardness and nitrate at some locations above the desirable limit. The groundwater prospects map has been prepared by integrating the hydrogeomorphologic, land use/land cover from satellite data (IRS-ID, LISS-III data) slope, soil, drainage density, depth to water table of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods (unconfined aquifer), water table fluctuation, static water level (confined to semi-confined aquifers), specific capacity, discharge and drawdown maps using index overlay method in the GIS environment. The groundwater prospects are depicted in five categories Very high, high, moderate, low and very low (runoff zone) integrated with the groundwater quality zones which have been prepared from hydrochemical data. The results indicated that 16.82 % of the area is under Very high potential zone category with 16.11 % and 0.71 % of desirable and undesirable quality of groundwater and 18.65 %, 42.06 %, 6.96 % and 15.46 % classified as high, moderate, low and very low potential zones with desirable and undesirable quality of groundwater for domestic purposes. This study be useful for designing the groundwater prospects and management plan for the sustainable development of study area.  相似文献   

14.
利用GRACE时变重力场反演黑河流域水储量变化   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
罗志才  李琼  钟波 《测绘学报》2012,41(5):676-681
黑河流域水储量变化对该区域的生态环境和经济建设等具有重要影响。本文利用2002年8月至2011年6月GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）时变重力场模型GRGS-EIGEN-GL04,采用去相关滤波P3M6与300km高斯滤波相结合的滤波方法反演了黑河流域陆地水储量变化,扣除GLDAS（Global Land Data Assimilation System）水文模型计算的土壤水和冰雪变化,给出了黑河流域地下水储量的时空变化,并利用张掖地区23口地下水测井数据对地下水反演结果进行了初步验证。研究结果表明：（1）黑河流域陆地水储量整体上呈现减少趋势,与该流域气候变化和CPC水文模型的计算结果具有较好的一致性,其减少速率为2.3cm/a等效水高;（2）黑河流域地下水储量呈现长期减少趋势,其减少速率为2.5cm/a等效水高,上、中游区域地下水储量减少速率相当,下游区域地下水储量减少速率明显小于中上游区域。  相似文献   

15.
GIS技术在地下水系统脆弱性编图示范中的应用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
主要论述应用GIS完成地下水系统脆弱性编图的技术方法,查明某一示范区地下水固有脆弱性,并进行地下水环境保护功能分区,以保护地下水资源免受污染或是减少到最低限度,为城市规划和建设服务。  相似文献   

16.
We consider current (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) average seasonal surface temperature fields from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Phase II experiment. We analyze the difference between future and current temperature fields for each RCM and include the factor of season, the factor of RCM, and their interaction in a two-way ANOVA model. Noticing that classical ANOVA approaches do not account for spatial dependence, we assume that the main effects and interactions are spatial processes that follow the Spatial Random Effects (SRE) model. This enables us to model the spatial variability through fixed spatial basis functions, and the computations associated with an ANOVA of high-resolution RCM outputs can be carried out without having to resort to approximations. We call the resulting model a spatial two-way ANOVA model. We implement it in a Bayesian framework, and we investigate the variability of climate-change projections over seasons, RCMs, and their interactions. We find that projected temperatures in North America are credibly higher, that the associated warming effects differ in spatial areas and in seasons, and that they are of much larger magnitude than the variability between RCMs.  相似文献   

17.
Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Background

Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.

Results

We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.

Conclusions

The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.  相似文献   

18.
利用重力场恢复与气候实验卫星反演的陆地水储量和全球陆地数据同化系统（global land data assimilation system,GLDAS）水文模型,从流域降雨分布信息出发,结合季节调整技术和非线性自回归（non-linear autoregressive,NAR）神经网络对流域地下水储量变化进行预测,并与未经过季节调整的NAR神经网络、自回归（autoregressive, AR）模型以及季节性自回归差分移动平均（seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, SARIMA）模型进行对比分析。以长江流域、勒拿河流域、鄂毕河流域以及叶尼塞河流域为例,结果表明,经过季节调整后的流域降雨和地下水分别服从独立分布和一阶自回归模型,为NAR神经网络时延数的确定提供了新的途径。经过季节调整后的NAR神经网络的预测结果在4个流域的模型表现优于传统的AR模型和SARIMA模型,均方根误差在1 cm以内,相关系数超过0.96。结合季节调整和NAR神经网络提高了流域地下水储量预测精度,减少了训练参数,加快了神经网络的收敛速度。  相似文献   

19.
Although climate change is highly prevalent in the media, people in Europe and the United States are often unsure about climate change terms, processes, and its personal consequences. In other words, climate change communication seems to be largely failing so far. Among other communication tools, maps are widely used for explanatory purposes by scientists and the media. Here two questions arise: first, whether high map complexity may be too intricate to be understood and discourage people from deciphering the map; and second, whether personal interest in climate change can be influenced by the phenomenon depicted or the map’s scale. In a survey conducted among 109 students in the USA, 63% of respondents preferred a simple map, but a substantial subset, 37%, asked for complexity to receive more information. Regional phenomena evoked more concern than far-off phenomena (concern level index difference of 0.93 on a 5-ranked Likert scale). The advantage of maps showing local areas could not be statistically confirmed.  相似文献   

20.

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO2/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO2/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.
  相似文献   

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