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1.
An enhanced “greenhouse effect” due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 is expected to produce significant climatic changes. If the combustion of fossil fuels is the only anthropogenic source of atmospheric CO2, measurements show that 54% resides in the atmosphere. The largest reservoir for the remaining 46% is the oceans. Known oceanic processes can account for 35% and the major uncertainty appears to be the role played by the intermediate waters. If, however, deforestation is as large a source of additional atmospheric CO2 as some have suggested, carbon balance cannot be obtained with presently identified removal processes. Various computer models have been used to calculate the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2. These include energy balance, radiative-convective and general circulation models (GCM's). Many feedback mechanisms must be considered including water vapour, clouds, oceans and the cryosphere. Although representing a considerable advance over other models, GCM's still require many approximations, of which the treatment of oceans and clouds are the most questionable. These models predict, for the scenario of the doubling of atmospheric CO2, an increase in global surface temperature of about 3°C with larger increases, up to 10° at higher latitudes. Significant changes in evaporation and precipitation patterns are also indicated.  相似文献   

2.
The dynamic climate in the Northern Hemisphere during the early Holocene could be expected to have impacted on the global carbon cycle. Ice core studies however, show little variability in atmospheric CO2. Resolving any possible centennial to decadal CO2 changes is limited by gas diffusion through the firn layer during bubble enclosure. Here we apply the inverse relationship between stomatal index (measured on sub-fossil leaves) and atmospheric CO2 to complement ice core records between 11,230 and 10,330 cal. yr BP. High-resolution sampling and radiocarbon dating of lake sediments from the Faroe Islands reconstruct a distinct CO2 decrease centred on ca. 11,050 cal. yr BP, a consistent and steady decline between ca. 10,900 and 10,600 cal. yr BP and an increased instability after ca. 10,550 cal. yr BP. The earliest decline lasting ca. 150 yr is probably associated with the Preboreal Oscillation, an abrupt climatic cooling affecting much of the Northern Hemisphere a few hundred years after the end of the Younger Dryas. In the absence of known global climatic instability, the decline to ca. 10,600 cal. yr BP is possibly due to expanding vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The increasing instability in CO2 after 10,600 cal. yr BP occurs during a period of increasing cooling of surface waters in the North Atlantic and some increased variability in proxy climate indicators in the region.The reconstructed CO2 changes also show a distinct similarity to indicators of changing solar activity. This may suggest that at least the Northern Hemisphere was particularly sensitive to changes in solar activity during this time and that atmospheric CO2 concentrations fluctuated via rapid responses in climate.  相似文献   

3.
A global to regional modeling system has been developed to evaluate precipitation under doubled CO2. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) is initialized and forced by current and doubled CO2 simulations from the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). Three RSM simulations, RSM0, RSM1, and RSM2, with resolution of 280, 50 and 15 km, are examined. The RSM0 setup resolution matches the T42 CCM3 simulations. The RSM2 simulation is centered over Taiwan. Due to incompatibility of the model physics, noticeable differences between RSM0 and CCM3 are found, especially in wintertime, which suggests that simulation from RSM0, rather than CCM3, should be used to contrast high-resolution regional variations produced by RSM1 or RSM2 simulations.While the spatial distributions of RSM1 and RSM2 simulations over Taiwan are greatly improved over the CCM3 simulation, the intensity of the unique wintertime drizzle is overestimated, especially in RSM2. There is also a spurious northward extension of the precipitation pattern from the subtropical warm-pool region. Thus the regional response to doubled CO2, which consists of more summerlike wintertime precipitation characteristics over the northeastern and eastern sides of Taiwan, with increased intensity mostly in the extreme events, is still in doubt and must be examined with improved global and regional models.  相似文献   

4.
The thermal emission spectrometer (TES) and the radio science (RS) experiment flying on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft have made observations of atmospheric temperatures below the saturation temperature of carbon dioxide (CO2). This supersaturated air provides a source of convective available potential energy (CAPE), which, when realized may result in vigorous convective mixing. To this point, most Mars atmospheric models have assumed vertical mixing only when the dry adiabatic lapse rate is exceeded. Mixing associated with the formation of CO2 clouds could have a profound effect on the vertical structure of the polar night, altering the distribution of temperature, aerosols, and gasses.Presented in this work are estimates of the total planetary inventory of CAPE and the potential convective energy flux (PCEF) derived from RS and TES temperature profiles. A new Mars Global Circulation Model (MGCM) CO2 cloud model is developed to better understand the distribution of observed CAPE and its potential effect on Martian polar dynamics and heat exchange, as well as effects on the climate as a whole. The new CO2 cloud model takes into account the necessary cloud microphysics that allow for supersaturation to occur and includes a parameterization for CO2 cloud convection. It is found that when CO2 cloud convective mixing is included, model results are in much better agreement with the observations of the total integrated CAPE as well as total column non-condensable gas concentrations presented by Sprague et al. [2005a, GRS measurements of Ar in Mars’ atmosphere, American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #37, #24.08, and 2005b, Distribution and Abundance of Mars’ Atmospheric Argon, 36th Annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, #2085] When the radiative effects of water ice clouds are included the agreement is further improved.  相似文献   

5.
We review two models describing the Venus climate system: the carbonate and pyrite models. It has been argued carbonate and pyrite are potentially important minerals controlling the climate of Venus, though existence of either minerals has not been confirmed. Although it used to be proposed that carbonation reaction might explain the Venus’ atmospheric CO2 abundance, it is unlikely Venus’ surface is reactive enough to control the Venus’ massive CO2 atmosphere. Venus’ surface carbonate is also able to affect the climate through the reaction with atmospheric SO2 to form anhydrite. Under the carbonate model the climate state is not in equilibrium and would be unstable due to the reaction between carbonate and SO2. On the other hand, pyrite-magnetite reaction is proposed to explain the Venus’ atmospheric SO2 abundance. Under pyrite-magnetite reaction, however, the climate would be stabilized such that the existing climate state is maintained over a geological timescale, while some observational facts such as atmospheric abundance of SO2 and surface temperature could also be reasonably explained.  相似文献   

6.
The “overshoot scenario” is an emissions scenario in which CO2 concentration in the atmosphere temporarily exceeds some pre-defined, “dangerous” threshold (before being reduced to non-dangerous levels). Support for this idea comes from its potential to achieve a balance between the burdens of current and future generations in dealing with global warming. Before it can be considered a viable policy, the overshoot scenario needs to be examined in terms of its impacts on the global climate and the environment. In, particular, it must be determined if climate change cause by the overshoot scenario is reversible or not, since crossing that “dangerous” CO2 threshold could result in climate change from which we might not be able to recover. In this study, we quantify the change in several climatic and environmental variables under the overshoot scenario using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Compared to earlier studies on the overshoot scenario, we have an explicit carbon cycle model that allows us to represent carbon-climate feedbacks and force the climate model more realistically with CO2 emissions rates rather than with prescribed atmospheric pCO2. Our standard CO2 emissions rate is calculated on the basis of historical atmospheric pCO2 data and the WRE S650 non-overshoot stabilization profile. It starts from the preindustrial year 1760, peaks in the year 2056, and ends in the year 2300. A variety of overshoot scenarios were constructed by increasing the amplitude of the control emissions peak but decreasing the peak duration so that the cumulative emissions remain essentially constant. Sensitivity simulations of various overshoot scenarios in our model show that many aspects of the global climate are largely reversible by year 2300. The significance of the reversibility, which takes roughly 200 years in our experiments, depends on the time horizon with which it is viewed or the number of future generations for whom equity is sought. At times when the overshoot scenario has emissions rates higher then the control scenario, the transient changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and surface ocean pH can be significant, even for moderate overshoot scenarios that remain within IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The large transient changes and the centennial timescale of climate reversibility suggest that the overshoot might not be the best mitigation approach, even if it technically follows the optimal economic path.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, we report on the validation of process-based forest growth and carbon and nitrogen model of TRIPLEX against observed data, and the use of the model to investigate the potential impacts and interaction of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 on forest net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon budgets in northeast of China. The model validation results show that the simulated tree total volume, NPP, total biomass and soil carbon are consistent with observed data across the Northeast of China, demonstrating that the improved TRIPLEX model is able to simulate forest growth and carbon dynamics of the boreal and temperate forest ecosystems at regional scale. The climate change would increase forest NPP and biomass carbon but decrease overall soil carbon under all three climate change scenarios. The combined effects of climate change and CO2 fertilization on the increase of NPP were estimated to be 10–12% for 2030s and 28–37% in 2090s. The simulated effects of CO2 fertilization significantly offset the soil carbon loss due to climate change alone. Overall, future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 would have a significant impact on the forest ecosystems of Northeastern China.  相似文献   

8.
In order to study the stability of martian climate, we constructed a two-dimensional (horizontal-vertical) energy balance model. The long-term CO2 mass exchange process between the atmosphere and CO2 ice caps is investigated with particular attention to the effect of planetary ice distribution on the climate stability. Our model calculation suggests that high atmospheric pressure presumed for past Mars would be unstabilized if H2O ice widely prevailed. As a result, a cold climate state might have been achieved by the condensation of atmospheric CO2 onto ice caps. On the other hand, the low atmospheric pressure, which is buffered by the CO2 ice cap and likely close to the present pressure, would be unstabilized if the CO2 ice albedo decreased. This may have led the climate into a warm state with high atmospheric pressure owing to complete evaporation of CO2 ice cap. Through the albedo feedback mechanisms of H2O and CO2 ices in the atmosphere-ice cap system, Mars may have experienced warm and cold climates episodically in its history.  相似文献   

9.
The requirement to increase understanding of the complex interaction between society and the environment is well documented. Dramatic evidence of the vulnerability of anthropogenic systems to short-term weather fluctuations abounds. Taking an historical perspective provides an equally impressive picture of the potential upheaval caused by longer term climate changes. However, the past (and present) may not provide an adequate analoque for the future. The greenhouse theory of climate change suggests that the changes in climate regime to be expected from enhanced atmospheric CO2 will be of similar magnitude to the glacial-interglacial mean temperature difference, but will occur in a fraction of the time. Consequently, considerable emphasis is being placed on the role of physical climate models in determining projections of future global and regional temperature and precipitation patterns. The latter climate changes will have important implications for the distribution (in time and space) of water, a principal natural resource and basic requirement for a variety of human activities. Consequently, climate models are being applied to the question of determining the regional hydrologic response to global climate change. The latter objective is a prerequisite to assessing the likely impacts on the water resources sector. This paper reviews current progress in achieving this aim and outlines some future research directions.  相似文献   

10.
Geologic evidence of the prior existence of liquid water on Mars suggests surface temperatures Ts were once considerably warmer than at present; and that such a condition may have arisen from a larger atmospheric greenhouse. Here we develop a simple climate model for a CO2/H2O Mars atmosphere including water vapor-longwave opacity feedback in the atmosphere and temperature-albedo feedback at surface icecaps, under the assumption that once the Martian surface pressure was ps ≥ 1 atm CO2. Longwave flux to space is computed as a function of Ts and ps using band-absorption models for the effect of the 15-μm fundamental, and the 10- and 15-μm hot bands, of the CO2 molecule; as well as the pure rotation bands and e continuum of H2O. The derived global radiative balance predicts a global mean surface temperature of 283°K at 1 atm CO2. When the emission model is coupled to a latitudinally resolved energy balance climate model, including the effect of poleward heat transfer by atmospheric baroclinic eddies, the solutions vary, depending on ps. We considered two cases: (1) the present Mars (ps ? 0.007 atm) with pressure-buffering by solid CO2 icecaps, and limited poleward heat flux by the atmosphere; and (2) a hypothetical “hot Mars” (ps ? 1.0 atm), whose much higher CO2 amount augmented by H2O evaporative feedback yields a theoretical Ts distribution with latitude admitting liquid water over 95% of the surface, water icecaps at the poles, and a diminished equator-to-pole temperature gradient relative to the present.  相似文献   

11.
We present results from a new simulation code that accounts for the evolution of the reservoirs of carbon dioxide on Mars, from its early years to the present. We establish a baseline model parameter set that produces results compatible with the present (i.e., Patm?6.5 mbar with permanent CO2 ice cap) for a wide range of initial inventories. We find that the initial inventory of CO2 broadly determines the evolutionary course of the reservoirs of CO2. The reservoirs include the atmosphere, ice cap, adsorbed CO2 in the regolith, and carbonate rocks. We track the evolution of the free inventory: the atmosphere, ice cap and regolith. Simulations begin at 4.53 Gyr before present with a rapid loss of free inventory to space in the early Noachian. Models that assume a relatively small initial inventory (?5 bar) have pronounced minima in the free inventory of CO2 toward the end of the Noachian. Under baseline parameters, initial inventories below ∼4.5 bar result in a catastrophic loss of the free inventory to space. The current free inventory would be then determined by the balance between outgassing, sputtering losses and chemical weathering following the end of the late bombardment. We call these “thin” models. They generically predict small current free inventories in line with expectations of a small present CO2 ice cap. For “thick” models, with initial inventories ?5 bar, a surplus of 300-700 mbar of free CO2 remains during the late-Noachian. The histories of free inventory in time for thick models tend to converge within the last 3.5 Gyr toward a present with an ice cap plus atmospheric inventory of about 100 mbar. For thick models, the convergence is largely due to the effects of chemical weathering, which draws down higher free inventories more rapidly than the low. Thus, thick models have ?450 mbar carbonate reservoirs, while thin models have ?200 mbar. Though both thick and thin scenarios can reproduce the current atmospheric pressure, the thick models imply a relatively large current CO2 ice cap and thin models, little or none. While the sublimation of a massive cap at a high obliquity would create a climate swing of greenhouse warming for thick models, under the thin model, mean temperatures and pressures would be essentially unaffected by increases in obliquity.  相似文献   

12.
Two sensitivity experiments, in which CO2 is instantaneously doubled, have been performed with a general circulation model to determine the influence of the convective parametrization on simulated climate change. We have examined the spatial structure of changes in the annual mean and annual cycle for surface temperature and precipitation for both experiments; similarly we have examined changes in the variance for these two fields. We have also computed a range of test statistics in order to obtain reliable measures of the signal-to-noise ratio in the climate change signal from each experiment. We have computed test statistics for the entire globe and for five different region and we contrast the global response with the response in the Australian region taken as a representative sample.We find that the highest signal-to-noise ratios in the change from 1 * CO2 to 2 * CO2 are for the change in surface temperature for both experiments with little difference in the global averages between the experiments. Globally averaged precipitation shows a greater noise level but perhaps the greatest contrast between experiments. There are generally significant increases in the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in the change from the 1 * CO2 to 2 * CO2 and with some differences apparent between the two experiments. The temporal variability of surface temperature does not change significantly in any of the 2 * CO2 cases, and there is little difference between the experiments. There is a significant decrease in the spatial variability of surface temperature in all 2 * CO2 experiments in all cases and with significant differences in the seasonal variations between different experiments. The spatial variability of precipitation increases in all 2 * CO2 cases and also with substantial differences in the seasonal variations between the experiments. There are accompanying significantly different spatial pattern correlations for both surface temperature and precipitation. In general we find that the global changes are fairly robust with the differences associated with convective parametrization schemes being very small. However, at the regional level, there are marked differences between experiments with changes both in the means and in the spatial and temporal variances but often with low levels of significance.  相似文献   

13.
The response of the Earth's global mean vertical atmospheric temperature structure to large increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration was examined using a 1-D radiative-convective atmospheric model. It was found that the greenhouse warming of the terrestrial surface can be strongly inhibited by the development of a more isothermal, moister and higher troposphere than at present. The saturation of the strong CO2 infrared bands for high CO2 concentrations further inhibits the greenhouse warming to such an extent that a runaway greenhouse fuelled only by a rise in the atmospheric CO2 is not possible. However, a continuously rising solar-constant does eventually lead to a runaway.  相似文献   

14.
The late Paleocene to early Eocene was one of the warmest intervals in Earth's history. Superimposed on this long-term warming was an abrupt short-term extreme warm event at or near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary and centered in the higher latitudes. This short-term climate warming was associated with a major benthic foraminiferal extinction and a dramatic 3–4% drop in the ocean's carbon isotopic composition. It has been suggested that the late paleocene/early Eocene global warming was caused by an enhanced greenhouse effect associated with higher levels of atmospheric CO2 relative to present levels. We present carbon isotopic data from the co-existing paleosols organic matter and carbonates from a terrestrial sequence in the Paris Basin, France that contradict the notion that an increase in atmospheric CO2 level was the cause of extreme warming for this time interval. Atmospheric pCO2 estimates for the Late Paleocene/early Eocene estimated from the terrestrial carbon isotopic record spanning the Paleocene/Eocene transition, are indistinguishable from each other and were generally between 300 and 700 ppm.  相似文献   

15.
Exchange of CO2 and H2O between the Mars regolith and the atmosphere-cap system plays an important role in governing the evolution of the martian atmosphere and the martian climate. Most of the exchangeable CO2 (perhaps one or two orders of magnitude more than the atmospheric inventory) is currently adsorbed on the deep regolith, and can be “cryopumped” to a large quasipermanent CO2 cap (not now present) during lowest Mars obliquity (θ). During the obliquity driven regolith-cap CO2 exchange cycle, the atmospheric pressure varies harmonically between ~0.1 mb (lowest Θ) and ? 20 mb (highest Θ). The regolith buffer plays only a small or negligible role in the seasonal CO2 pressure variations caused by atmosphere-cap exchange because adsorption greatly inhibits diffusion of the seasonal “pressure wave” into the regolith. In contrast, thermally driven H2O seasonal exchange between the atmosphere and regolith appears to be in large part responsible for observed seasonal variations in the small atmospheric H2O inventory. Long term exchange of H2O may be dominated by transfer between the polar caps and ice in the regolith. Available and potential tests of regolith-atmospheric-cap volatile exchange models using ground-based and spacecraft-based techniques are discussed.  相似文献   

16.
The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO2 experiments (2 × CO2) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO2 climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO2 climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr−1 in the control to 1595 mm yr−1 in the 2 × CO2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr−1 in the control to +27 mm yr−1 in the 2 × CO2 simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO2 climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO2 simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO2 climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO2 climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr−1 to 600 mm yr−1 in the 2 × CO2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr−1 in the control to +619 mm yr−1 due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.  相似文献   

17.
For the Tortonian, Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Geiger, G., Mosbrugger, V., 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 238, 399–423] perform a model simulation which considers a generally lower palaeorography, a weaker ocean heat transport and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 353 ppm. The Tortonian simulation of Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Geiger, G., Mosbrugger, V., 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 238, 399–423] demonstrates some realistic trends: the high latitudes are warmer than today and the meridional temperature gradient is reduced. However, the Tortonian run also indicates some insufficiencies such as too cool mid-latitudes which can be due to an underestimated pCO2 in the atmosphere. As a sensitivity study, we perform a further model experiment for which we additionally increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide (700 ppm). According to this CO2 sensitivity experiment, we find a global warming and a globally more intense water cycle as compared to the previous Tortonian run. Particularly the high latitudes are warmer in the Tortonian CO2 sensitivity run which leads to a lower amount of Arctic sea ice and a reduced equator-to-pole temperature difference. Our Tortonian CO2 sensitivity study basically agrees with results from recent climate model experiments which consider an increase of CO2 during the next century (e.g. [Cubasch, U., Meehl, G.A., Boer, G.J., Stouffer, R.J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C.A., Raper, S., Yap, K.S., 2001. Projections of Future Climate Change. In: Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, C.A. Johnson (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 525–582]) suggesting that the climatic response on a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration is almost independent from the different settings of boundary conditions (Tortonian versus today). To validate the Tortonian model simulations, we perform a quantitative comparison with terrestrial proxy data. This comparison demonstrates that the Tortonian CO2 sensitivity experiment tends to be more realistic than the previous Tortonian simulation by Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Geiger, G., Mosbrugger, V., 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 238, 399–423]. However, a high carbon dioxide concentration of 700 ppm is questionable for the Late Miocene, and it cannot explain shortcomings of our Tortonian run with ‘normal’ CO2. In order to fully understand the Late Miocene climate, further model experiments should also consider the palaeovegetation.  相似文献   

18.
Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO2 increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO2 increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO2 increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO2 concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO2 enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO2 scenario. The 2×CO2 climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO2 increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.  相似文献   

19.
The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.  相似文献   

20.
It has been suggested that the residual polar caps of Mars contain a reservoir of permanently frozen carbon dioxide which is controlling the atmospheric pressure. However, observational data and models of the polar heat balance suggest that the temperatures of the Martian poles are too high for solid CO2 to survive permanently. On the other hand, the icelike compound carbon dioxide-water clathrate (CO2 · 6H2O) could function as a CO2 reservoir instead of solid CO2, because it is stable at higher temperatures. This paper shows that the permanent polar caps may contain several millibars of CO2 in the form of clathrate, and discusses the implications of this permanent clathrate reservoir for the present and past atmospheric pressure on Mars.  相似文献   

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