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1.
滑坡危险性评价是滑坡风险评估的重要组成部分,对滑坡的预测和防治意义重大。传统滑坡危险性评价在计算指标间重要性时多采用AHP、专家评判法、模糊综合评判等方法,但存在主观性较强,计算较为复杂等问题。研究基于一种改进的突变理论模型对滑坡进行危险性评价,选取坡度、坡向、高程、平面曲率、剖面曲率、距河流距离、地层岩性、土地利用类型、距断层距离、植被覆盖率、24 h降雨以及人类工程活动等12个因子作为滑坡危险性评价的影响因子,采用熵权法判定指标间的相对重要性,并建立滑坡危险性评价体系;然后对指标进行标准化、归一化,计算总突变结果;最后使用拟合函数对总突变结果进行转换,得到新的滑坡危险性评价准则,并以雅安市的20条滑坡对评价准则进行实例验证。结果表明,突变理论得到的评价结果准确率为90%,评价结果更加直观准确。 相似文献
2.
以三峡库区秭归县马家沟滑坡I号滑体为例, 为研究其在库水位升降和降雨条件下的变形破坏及稳定性, 对其采用框架式模型试验, 参照1∶40相似比进行了缩放.以模型概化前后滑坡稳定性系数相一致为目的, 在2.0m×1.0m×1.5m的试验框架内, 通过改变抗滑桩前的滑体、滑带的几何形态, 建立了与研究对象应力边界条件一致的地质力学模型.概化后对滑坡桩前边界推力和研究区后边界推力进行拟合, 得出相应于实际滑坡在不同水位时边界推力的折减系数.通过调节水位的升降速率来保证在水位变化时滑坡概化前后稳定性系数等效, 数值模拟结果显示滑坡模型的水位变化速率为0.7m/d、水位在183~204m范围内升降满足模拟实际滑坡水位在145~175m间变动的情况, 从而也验证了滑坡概化后模型的合理性. 相似文献
3.
高速运动的滑坡体与下伏不平顺运动路径间的强烈动力相互作用将产生地震波,即滑震。滑震作为一种独特的研究视角,可为高速远程滑坡运动特征的研究提供前所未有的细节化体现和无与伦比的定量化数据支撑。通过对国内外已有研究成果的归纳梳理,对高速远程滑坡滑震研究的发展过程和研究现状进行了概略性述评:首先,对滑震相关研究近百年来的历史进程和发展趋势进行了归纳;其次,通过对比不同运动行为产生滑震信号的过程,阐述了滑震波的典型信号特征;进一步地,基于不同频段的滑震信号特征,从高速远程滑坡基本特征识别、高速远程滑坡运动学过程和运动特征推演等方面,对现有研究成果进行了述评,探讨了滑震手段推进高速远程滑坡动力学研究的重要贡献和巨大潜力;在此基础上,从滑震数据库的建立和完善、滑震波动机理理论模型的优化与发展、滑震波与滑坡接触力的耦合分析以及多学科交叉融合4个方面对下一步的研究工作进行了讨论和展望。 相似文献
4.
高速远程滑坡运动学机理是国际工程地质领域亟待解决的重大前沿性关键科学问题。为探索高速远程滑坡的运动学机理,以青藏高原不同构造背景下的三大高速远程滑坡为研究对象,通过现场工程地质调查与分析,详细探讨了滑坡运动路径上所揭露出的各种表面与剖面沉积学特征,结果显示:(1)沿滑坡运动路径上依次可见大型堆积平台、纵向脊、横向脊、堆积丘等表面沉积学地貌的规律性分布,根据各类地貌的空间分布特征,可将滑坡区自后向前划分为源区、流通区和堆积区;(2)剖面上则可见反粒序堆积结构的展布,自上而下依次可划分为硬壳层、主体层和基底层,在硬壳层和主体层中可见层序保留、拼贴构造等低扰动性沉积学特征分布,在基底层中则可见其与下伏原沟谷堆积层强相互作用形成的底辟构造、小型褶皱等剖面沉积学特征分布。基于高速远程滑坡运动路径上各类表面和剖面沉积学地貌的空间展布特征,初步提出青藏高原关键地带高速远程滑坡的运动与停积就位机制,即滑体自源区失稳后主体表现为一种快速的低扰动性的整体性剪切运动过程,其流通区以快速拉张运动为主,堆积区则以快速推挤运动为主;当滑体下伏层中含水量较高时,伴随着滑体底部摩阻力的迅速降低,滑体表现出明显的侧限扩离运动。 相似文献
5.
海量监测数据下分布式BP神经网络区域滑坡空间预测方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
提出BP神经网络的分布式区域滑坡预测方法,算法设计在大数据分布式处理平台Spark下实现,通过构造包含均方误差和L2正则化的代价函数,提高运算实时性和算法泛化能力。统计影响滑坡评价因子的量化指标和定义监测剖面危险级别评价值,并进行评价因子特征选取,用于三峡库区忠县区域9个滑坡11年月监测海量数据挖掘,对研究区所有滑坡监测剖面每月进行危险级别评价,实现以月为周期的区域滑坡危险程度空间预测。试验表明,采用所述方法得到的拟合精度、准确度、效率均比梯度提升决策树、随机森林算法好,预测的滑坡危险级别准确,该方法可作为区域滑坡空间预测的一种新思路。 相似文献
6.
区域滑坡危险性评价是进行区域滑坡风险性研究的基础.由于滑坡演变机制的复杂性,使得目前基于独立分析各因素对滑坡影响的“白箱”型评价模式具有一定风险性,同时这类评价方法要求对滑坡演变和研究区地质地理背景进行非常细致的监测和调查.为了克服这些问题,文章提出了一种基于Kriging插值理论的“黑箱”型评价方法.在利用该方法对历史滑坡点的规模进行评价的基础上,利用Kriging插值法获取研究区的滑坡危险性区划,并以四川省苍溪县为例,验证了运用该方法进行区域滑坡危险性评价的可行性. 相似文献
7.
以陈家坝场镇滑坡为例,通过对都坝河阶地的调查,概化出了都坝河阶地模型;根据对陈家坝滑坡的地貌学分析,结合水文地质调查和剖面对比,发现陈家坝滑坡位于都坝河的二级阶地上,是大型阶地型地震滑坡;通过陈家坝阶地地震滑坡的地形地貌、物质组成和岩土体力学性质室内试验分析,对其成因机制进行深入研究,发现陡倾的地形条件、松散的物质条件以及滑坡区前后缘高差大构成了滑坡的基本条件,而地震波反复剪切作用下饱和滑带土的残余剪切强度低和距离断裂带较近的强地震动是滑坡形成的主要原因;在对滑坡阶地模型概化的基础上,考虑滑坡的三维空间效应,采用有限差分强度折减法对其在自然状态、暴雨、地震等工况下进行了三维稳定性分析评价,并得到了不同工况下滑坡潜在三维不稳定的区域。这些分析对阶地型地震滑坡失稳机制的研究及稳定性评价具有一定的意义。 相似文献
8.
滑坡是最严重的地质灾害之一,查明滑坡形态特征及滑坡形成机制对于滑坡体稳定性分析、滑坡灾害风险管理和政府治理决策等方面具有重要意义.前人研究滑坡形态及其形成机制较少结合地球物理实测方法,其工程地质剖面绘制多局限于点信息的获取方式,而结合地球物理实测方法有利于从线、面同时获取更丰富的滑坡体地质信息,更加准确量化滑移面埋深和透视滑床形态.鉴于此,以灾害频发的三峡库区万州区为研究对象,采用网格高密度电法实测区内不同深度地层的电阻率值,并以此生成二维电阻率剖面和构建滑床三维形态;同时,将剖面电性分布特征与钻孔资料及地质调查资料相结合,对滑坡区地层结构、滑移面埋深以及滑床形态等多个影响滑坡的重要因素综合分析.结果表明,在研究区开展网格高密度电法实测工作,可获取地层电性结构特征以及构建滑坡体三维形态;实测剖面显示四方碑滑坡属于古滑坡,且存在拉裂槽现象.将实测剖面获取的滑移面埋深和构建的三维滑床形态进行钻孔标定,可对滑坡体内部结构及物质组成进行“透视”,从而为滑坡形成机制分析提供依据,同时也给其他类似区域地质调查中的滑坡稳定性评价及预测预报工作提供理论指导和技术参考.通过高密度电法揭示三峡库区典型滑坡体三维形态特征的理论方法和技术路线成功引入滑坡形成机制分析,可为研究滑坡形成机制和理论提供新思路,具有推广意义. 相似文献
9.
基于推广Bayes方法参数优化的滑坡稳定性评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
传统的极限平衡法在确定的计算工况下要求抗剪强度参数为常数,但由于各种参数的随机性、测试的误差、地质体的不均匀性、外界因素变化的随机性等特点,对滑坡稳定性评价起主要作用的抗剪强度参数从严格意义上来说均是随时间变化的随机变量,这就需要用破坏概率模型等非传统方法对滑坡进行稳定性评价。破坏概率模型的关键是滑坡抗剪强度参数的概率分布函数,但是在实际工程中,由于试验数据太少无法准确确定抗剪强度参数概率分布函数。本文提出了以区域统计规律得出的概率分布函数为先验分布函数,然后用推广Bayes方法确定该滑坡的概率分布函数,并以里沱河滑坡为例用破坏概率模型对其进行稳定性评价。 相似文献
10.
地下水流系统理论和数值模拟技术分别是水文地质学的基本理论和技术方法,含水岩组的概化是地下水流系统分析和地下水数值模拟的重要基础,直接影响着数值模拟和水流系统分析的精度和可信度.为提高含水岩组概化的精度和可信度,提出一种含水岩组概化的新方法,即累积导水系数法.依据岩层厚度与渗透系数乘积累积值随深度的变化,以及水文地质剖面岩性分布的整体特征,概化含水介质结构.以玛纳斯河流域为例,应用该方法概化流域内的岩性剖面,结合GMS软件中TINS模块构建水文地质结构模型.结果表明,应用该方法概化后的含水层结构具有较好的合理性和仿真性,建立的三维模型很好地显示了研究区含水介质的空间展布特征,为建立地下水流模型奠定了良好的基础. 相似文献
11.
应力路径对土的强度和变形性质具有重要影响。相对于饱和土而言,控制吸力条件下的非饱和土三轴压缩状态的应力路径研究更加复杂。随着非饱和土本构理论的不断发展,理论和试验研究结果表明,非饱和土弹塑性本构模型可以用来近似地描述非饱和土的强度和变形性质。因而,运用非饱和土弹塑性本构模型对控制吸力条件下的3种非饱和土三轴压缩应力路径试验进行数值模拟是一种有效的理论研究手段。采用Barcelona模型能够对此类试验进行较好的数值模拟,其研究结果表明,在控制吸力条件的三轴压缩状态下应力路径对非饱和土的强度和变形性质具有重要影响。 相似文献
12.
GIS-Based Probabilistic Mapping of Landslide Hazard Using a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
Based on a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) grid-basedthree-dimensional (3-D) deterministic model and taking the slopeunit as the mapping unit, this study maps landslide hazard usingthe 3-D safety factor index and failure probability. Assuming theinitial slip to be the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3-D critical slipsurface in the 3-D slope stability analysis is located by minimizingthe 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation.The failure probability of the landslide is calculated using anapproximate method in which the distributions of c, andthe 3-D safety factor are assumed to be in normal distribution.The method has been applied to a case study on three-dimensionallyand probabilistically mapping landslide hazard. 相似文献
13.
Landslides are studied systematically in order to evaluate the nature of hazard and the damages to the human life, land, roads, buildings and other properties. This can be expressed in terms of risk, which is a function of hazard probability and damage potential. A risk map will indicate the priorities for landslide hazard management. A new approach to risk assessment mapping using a risk assessment matrix (RAM) is presented. 相似文献
14.
15.
以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例, 探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征, 以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上, 分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型, 进行了日超越概率10%的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估; 同时, 结合地震危险性区划成果, 开展了50年超越概率10%的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上, 利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件, 开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征(Runout)模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。 相似文献
16.
Multi-geohazards susceptibility mapping based on machine learning—a case study in Jiuzhaigou,China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jiuzhaigou, located in the transitional area between the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, is highly prone to geological hazards (e.g., rock fall, landslide, and debris flow). High-performance-based hazard prediction models, therefore, are urgently required to prevent related hazards and manage potential emergencies. Current researches mainly focus on susceptibility of single hazard but ignore that different types of geological hazards might occur simultaneously under a complex environment. Here, we firstly built a multi-geohazard inventory from 2000 to 2015 based on a geographical information system and used satellite data in Google earth and then chose twelve conditioning factors and three machine learning methods—random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—to generate rock fall, landslide, and debris flow susceptibility maps. The results show that debris flow models presented the best prediction capabilities [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC 0.95)], followed by rock fall (AUC 0.94) and landslide (AUC 0.85). Additionally, XGBoost outperformed the other two methods with the highest AUC of 0.93. All three methods with AUC values larger than 0.84 suggest that these models have fairly good performance to assess geological hazards susceptibility. Finally, evolution index was constructed based on a joint probability of these three hazard models to predict the evolution tendency of 35 unstable slopes in Jiuzhaigou. The results show that these unstable slopes are likely to evolve into debris flows with a probability of 46%, followed by landslides (43%) and rock falls (29%). Higher susceptibility areas for geohazards were mainly located in the southeast and middle of Jiuzhaigou, implying geohazards prevention and mitigation measures should be taken there in near future.
相似文献17.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D(early effective rainfall-rainfall duration)阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量(early effective rainfall,EE)和降雨历时(D)为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示：(1)宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;(2)2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;(3)C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知... 相似文献
18.
A review of assessing landslide frequency for hazard zoning purposes 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
The probability of occurrence is one of the key components of the risk equation. To assess this probability in landslide risk analysis, two different approaches have been traditionally used. In the first one, the occurrence of landslides is obtained by computing the probability of failure of a slope (or the reactivation of existing landslides). In the second one, which is the objective of this paper, the probability is obtained by means of the statistical analysis of past landslide events, specifically by the assessment of the past landslide frequency. In its turn, the temporal frequency of landslides may be determined based on the occurrence of landslides or from the recurrence of the landslide triggering events over a regional extent. Hazard assessment using frequency of landslides, which may be taken either individually or collectively, requires complete records of landslide events, which is difficult in some areas. Its main advantage is that it may be easily implemented for zoning. Frequency assessed from the recurrence of landslide triggers, does not require landslide series but it is necessary to establish reliable relations between the trigger, its magnitude and the occurrence of the landslides. The frequency of the landslide triggers can be directly used for landslide zoning. However, because it does not provide information on the spatial distribution of the potential landslides, it has to be combined with landslide susceptibility (spatial probability analysis) to perform landslide hazard zoning. Both the scale of work and availability of data affect the results of the landslide frequency and restrict the spatial resolution of frequency zoning as well. Magnitude–frequency relationships are fundamental elements for the quantitative assessment of both hazard and risk. 相似文献
19.
The increased socio-economic significance of landslides has resulted in the application of statistical methods to assess their
hazard, particularly at medium scales. These models evaluate where, when and what size landslides are expected. The method presented in this study evaluates the landslide hazard on the basis of homogenous susceptible
units (HSU). HSU are derived from a landslide susceptibility map that is a combination of landslide occurrences and geo-environmental
factors, using an automated segmentation procedure. To divide the landslide susceptibility map into HSU, we apply a region-growing
segmentation algorithm that results in segments with statistically independent spatial probability values. Independence is
tested using Moran’s I and a weighted variance method. For each HSU, we obtain the landslide frequency from the multi-temporal data. Temporal and
size probabilities are calculated using a Poisson model and an inverse-gamma model, respectively. The methodology is tested
in a landslide-prone national highway corridor in the northern Himalayas, India. Our study demonstrates that HSU can replace
the commonly used terrain mapping units for combining three probabilities for landslide hazard assessment. A quantitative
estimate of landslide hazard is obtained as a joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence for each
HSU for different time periods and for different sizes. 相似文献
20.
This paper is a contribution to an important aspect of the systematic and quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. The focus is on site-specific and detailed assessment for rainfall-triggered landslides and, in particular, on the estimation and interpretation of the temporal probability of landsliding. Historical rainfall data over a 109-year period were analysed with particular reference to a site along the Unanderra and Moss Vale Railway Line in the State of New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the recurrence interval of landsliding and hence annual probability of occurrence is subject to significant uncertainty and that it cannot be regarded as a constant. Accordingly landslide hazard varies spatially as well as being a function of time. For the example case study considered in this paper the annual probability of landslide occurrence was estimated to be in the range 0.026–0.172. However, the mean annual probability of landslide reactivation was estimated to be in the range 0.037–0.078. Utilisation of methods for probability assessment proposed in this paper will contribute to more realistic assessment of hazard and risk and, therefore, to more efficient risk management. 相似文献