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1.
The evaluation of the impact of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems requires establishing a reference situation. As deltaic coastal zones are highly dynamic areas, it is necessary to define the reference situation as a function of their present evolutive stage. This implies characterizing coastal processes as a complex system defined by the links between driving or forcing terms and the coastal response at different temporal and spatial scales (long/large, medium and episodic scales). Starting from classical previous works on deltaic systems and including all available field and conceptual knowledge to properly consider present conditions (largely regulated rivers, subsidence, etc.) a detailed methodology to analyse forcing or driving agents at the three mentioned scales is presented. This methodology which developed the general approach presented in a companion paper, will be followed by a future paper focusing on the analysis of the coastal response.  相似文献   

2.
An investigation is made of the detailed kinematic conditions which characterize breaking of internal waves in a continuous density field. It has been observed that breaking is associated with localized, abruptly appearing intensifications of the density gradient. Turbulence subsequently develops from these intensifications or traumata.Interactions between two or more disparate waves produce distortions more extreme than would be deduced from linear combination. This is exploited experimentally by crossing two weak internal wave beams from separate sources.Lagrangian integration of the motion field defined by the beams gives extrema of isopycnic slope, Richardson number defined by shear across isopycnics and dynamic vertical density gradient, and dynamic density gradient, under conditions for the appearance of traumata.  相似文献   

3.
Selected field measurements of evening stable boundary layers are presented in detail comparable with published Large Eddy Simulation results. Such models appear to match idealized theories more closely than do some boundary-layer observations. Any attempt to compare detailed observations with idealized models therefore highlights the variability of the real boundary layer.Here direct turbulence measurements across the stable boundary layer from a heterogeneous and an ideal site are contrasted. Recommendations are made for the information needed to distinguish heterogeneous and ideal cases.The companion paper (Part II) discusses further the issues of data, analysis in the presence of variability, and the effects of averaging over heterogeneous terrain.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Process Research Division.  相似文献   

4.
Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.  相似文献   

5.
Shear convection     
The paper discusses convection in the presence of wind shear, a condition analysed previously by Zilitinkevich (1971). This region (between the forced and fully developed convective layers) was also considered by Betchov and Yaglom (1971). In the present paper the author endeavors to develop a consistent analysis from the basic hypothesis of a very weak interaction between the vertical convective motions and mechanical turbulence, employing a new similarity model of the turbulent regime. Additional experimental data are introduced. Unlike the notation used in the references quoted above, this regime is termed shear convection rather than free convection. The latter is traditionally regarded as synonymous with the terms pure or fully developed convection.  相似文献   

6.
Recently Wilson and Flesch (Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 84, 411-426, 1997) suggested that the average increment d z to the orientation = arctan(w/u) of the Lagrangian velocity-fluctuation vector can be used to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. Here it is demonstrated that the specification of d z constitutes neither a sufficient or universally applicable criterion to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. The hypothesis made by Wilson and Flesch that Lagrangian stochastic models with /PE irrotational are zero-spin models, having d z=0, is proven  相似文献   

7.
In this paper we explore the dominant position of a particular style of scientific modelling in the provision of policy-relevant scientific knowledge on future climate change. We describe how the apical position of General Circulation Models (GCMs) appears to follow logically both from conventional understandings of scientific representation and the use of knowledge, so acquired, in decision-making. We argue, however, that both of these particular understandings are contestable. In addition to questioning their current policy-usefulness, we draw upon existing analyses of GCMs which discuss model trade-offs, errors, and the effects of parameterisations, to raise questions about the validity of the conception of complexity in conventional accounts. An alternative approach to modelling, incorporating concepts of uncertainty, is discussed, and an illustrative example given for the case of the global carbon cycle. In then addressing the question of how GCMs have come to occupy their dominant position, we argue that the development of global climate change science and global environmental management frameworks occurs concurrently and in a mutually supportive fashion, so uniting GCMs and environmental policy developments in certain industrialised nations and international organisations. The more basic questions about what kinds of commitments to theories of knowledge underpin different models of complexity as a normative principle of good science are concealed in this mutual reinforcement. Additionally, a rather technocratic policy orientation to climate change may be supported by such science, even though it involves political choices which deserve to be more widely debated.  相似文献   

8.
Components of the radiation and energy balances were measured over a clear-cut area and a mature, mixed forest during the summer of 1981 at the Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario. The work concentrated on the clear-cut site which supported a canopy layer composed primarily of bracken fern and logging remnants.Forty days of radiation data were collected at the clear-cut site. After the first four weeks of measurements (the green season), most of the ferns quickly died, and their foliage changed appearance from a green to brownish colour (the brown season). The daily mean reflection coefficient of solar radiation determined over the green season was 0.20 and decreased to 0.13 for the brown season. The corresponding value for the forest was 0.13, based on a limited amount of data. The clear-cut site received 11% and 21% less net radiation than the forest on a 24-hr and daylight-hours basis, respectively, as a consequence of the higher reflection coefficient and larger daytime longwave radiation emission.A reversing temperature difference measurement system (RTDMS), incorporating ten-junction thermopiles was employed at each site in order to determine Bowen ratios () via differential psychrometry. Both systems performed well, especially the RTDMS over the forest which was capable of resolving very small differences of temperature, typically less than 0.2 °C over a height of 3 m. The mean hourly Bowen ratio, calculated from values from 0800 to 1600 hr, varied from 0.2 to 1.0 for the forest and from 0.4 to 0.8 for the clear-cut site in the green season.A significant canopy heat storage component of the energy balance, Q S , was found at the clear-cut site. In the early morning, a portion of the available energy was used to heat the biomass materials and air within the canopy layer. The stored heat within the canopy was released later in the day, increasing the available energy total.The daily mean value of the Priestley-Taylor coefficient (Priestley and Taylor, 1972) for the green season at the clear-cut site was 1.14, and individual values tended to increase during wet surface conditions and decrease when the surface dried. The daylight mean value during dry canopy conditions at the forest was 1.05, and much higher values occurred when the canopy was wet. The enhancement of for the wet forest was a result of the evaporation of intercepted rain (which is not limited by stomatal resistance) and the concomitant transfer of sensible heat to the forest.  相似文献   

9.
Horizontal u and vertical w velocity fluctuations have been measured together with temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer, at a small height above a wheat crop canopy. Marginal probability density functions are presented for both individual fluctuations u, w, and for the instantaneous Reynolds stress uw, and heat fluxes w and u. Probability density functions of the velocity fluctuations deviate less significantly from the Gaussian form than the probability density of temperature. There appears to be closer similarity between statistics of the instantaneous heat fluxes than between the momentum flux and either of the heat fluxes investigated. The mean momentum flux receives equal contributions from the events referred to as ejections and sweeps in laboratory boundary layers. Sweeps provide the largest contribution to the heat fluxes.  相似文献   

10.
Analysis of recent rainfall normals reveals an unusual spatial pattern where the rainfall increases with the distance from the sea over the central coastal plain of Israel. Applying a multiple regression technique separately to rainfall amounts for the two randomized experiments of cloud seeding of seeded days and not seeded days, leads to the conclusion that the inadvertent influence of recent urbanization processes along the coastal plain are the cause of this phenomenon, rather than the advertent artificial cloud seeding. The seeding effect at the target area, on the other hand, seems to increase the inhomogeneity of the spatial structure of the rainfall distribution.  相似文献   

11.
The micrometeorological research program in Antarctica has provided extensive data on wind and temperature profile structure under strong to extreme inversion conditions (Dalrymple et al., 1966; Lettau et al., 1977). The basic similarity hypotheses and limiting conditions for prediction of diabatic surface layer profiles are summarized. The model by Businger et al. (1971) for dimensionless shear and temperature gradients is revised to conform with the new results for strong stability. A novel similarity hypothesis is introduced to complete the step from shear and gradient prediction to prediction of absolute wind speed, wind energy, and temperature on the basis of prescribed external factors of surface layer structure. The physics of interactions between predicted profile tilting and curving are discussed and used to explain several micrometeorological paradoxes, including that of the elevated minimum of air temperature observed occasionally near the active surface when the energy budget is of the nocturnal type.  相似文献   

12.
As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division  相似文献   

13.
The meaning of baseline as applied to measurements of CN, at atmospheric monitoring sites such as Cape Grim, is discussed and the idea that a baseline exists only in a statistical sense advocated. Use of the concentration frequency-distribution geometric-mean is proposed as the best measure of CN concentrations. Variations in CN concentrations at Cape Grim for periods greater than 12 months are derived by Kalman filtering the monthly estimates of geometric mean concentration obtained from 1977 to 1987. Significant variations are shown to be present on this timescale with quasi-periodic oscillations in concentration. Some association between major fluctuations and El-Nino Southern Oscillation perturbations in the regional circulation is suggested.  相似文献   

14.
A solution to the kinematical aspects of the problem of closure, from the standpoint of the theory of tensor invariants, is presented. The solution is effected for isotropic turbulence by employing a modified tensor invariant theory and it is shown how a similar approach will lead to the solution of the corresponding closure problem for a simple type of nonhomogeneous turbulence. A geometric significance is attached to the results of this approach by introducing the concept of a multiplicative product of two vectors. The theoretical results are applied to the case of isotropic atmospheric turbulence. The kinetical implication of the proposed solution to the problem is discussed.Associate Professor of Physics and Mathematics, Del Mar College, Corpus Christi, Texas (on leave of absence).  相似文献   

15.
During 1987 and 1988 in Australia there have been two national meetings on the greenhouse effect and a campaign designed to increase public awareness. A study of the backgrounds, level of comprehension and attitudes of attendees at two state Greenhouse-88 meetings has been undertaken by means of a questionnaire survey and a set of personal interviews. Two crucial caveats pertain: (1) some of the questions reflect the prejudices of the author who is an atmospheric scientist and much of the interpretation is similarly tainted and (2) the respondents comprise a small, self-selected and probably highly motivated group. All the ensuing results should be viewed in the context of these caveats.Over 97% of the respondents believe that action should be taken now to alleviate or mitigate the effects of increased greenhouse gases. Despite the fact that the majority of the 321 respondents are professional people (73%) and that over 53% have tertiary level educational qualifications, there was a failure to grasp some fundamental issues. For example, only 120 (37%) correctly recognized that N2 is not a greenhouse agent whilst also agreeing that CO2, CH4 and CFCs are greenhouse agents. On the other hand, the respondents generally demanded a relatively low level of confidence (50% to 70% certainty) about the greenhouse issue from scientists before action is taken. Sixty-four percent believe that life will be worse for them and/or their children in Australia in Greenhouse 2025 with the youngest age range being the second most pessimistic group about the future.Relatively little interest was shown in the possibility of obtaining more information on topics that interest climatic scientists such as the validity of measured temperature trends and inadequacies/errors in climate models but more information was desired on the social and economic implication and, interestingly, on the scientific background to the issues. Overall, teachers are perceived as trying to increase understanding; whereas politicians, multinational corporations, the media and some extreme environmentalists are perceived as often attempting to deceive intentionally. Scientists are seen as neither especially malevolent nor benign. A possible conclusion which might be drawn is that by attempting to simplify issues for public debate, scientists may significantly reduce, or even remove entirely, any chance of re-association of connected issues by members of the public. Perhaps more importantly, scientists need to recognize and learn to use the knowledge that the public may have the right views for the wrong reasons.  相似文献   

16.
Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.  相似文献   

17.
This is one of a series of papers on the Askervein Hill Project. It presents results on the variations in mean wind speed at fixed heights (z) above the ground from linear arrays of anemometer posts and towers. Most of the data are for z = 10 m but some are for z = 3 m. Selected and directionally grouped data from the 55 Mean Flow runs are presented together with mean flow data from Askervein '83 Turbulence runs. Comparisons are made between the data and guideline estimates of fractional speed-up ratio at hilltop locations and between the data and MS3DJH/3 model predictions along the tower lines. There is good agreement in most cases.  相似文献   

18.
With the use of a sonic anemometer, vertical heat and momentum fluxes were measured at three different levels in an oak forest canopy. A quadrant analysis of the resulting data shows that approximately half of the transport occurs in extreme events lasting about 5 to 10% of the time. The partition of transport into momentum sweeps, bursts and interactions shows good agreement with existing data. The heat flux is analysed by observing the fluxes during the different momentum events and considering concurrent momentum and heat flux intensities by means of conditional probabilities. While low intensity (normal) events show similar probability distributions throughout the canopy, different structures appear at the three measurement heights for high intensity (extreme) events that can tentatively be explained by taking the temperature profile into account. This supports the idea that these events are coherent motions with scales comparable to the canopy height.  相似文献   

19.
A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.  相似文献   

20.
A canonical correlation analysis is used to study the simulation of the relationship between small-scale precipitation patterns near the Alps and large-scale flow patterns by the ECHAM (ECMWF model, HAMburg version) climate model. The analysis is performed on a monthly mean time scale for the winter months of ECHAM1/T21, ECHAM3/T21 (improved model physics) and ECHAM3/T42 (increased resolution) simulations. The obtained patterns are compared with an identical analysis of observational data. The coarse structures of the observed relationships seem to be reasonably well simulated by the ECHAM3/T42 model version despite the simple shape of the model Alps (hereafter the model Alps), while the results for the ECHAM1/T21 and ECHAM3/T21 are not as good. This appears to be not only due to the increased resolution but also to the improved model physics, since some indication of the relationship can be found in the simulation of the ECHAM3/T21, but not in the simulation of the ECHAM1/T21 model version.Paper presented in session OA19/ST15, Simulation of climates using comprehensive global models at the XIX General Assembly of the EGS, Grenoble, 25–29 April 1994  相似文献   

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