首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 989 毫秒
1.
Recently Wilson and Flesch (Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 84, 411-426, 1997) suggested that the average increment d z to the orientation = arctan(w/u) of the Lagrangian velocity-fluctuation vector can be used to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. Here it is demonstrated that the specification of d z constitutes neither a sufficient or universally applicable criterion to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. The hypothesis made by Wilson and Flesch that Lagrangian stochastic models with /PE irrotational are zero-spin models, having d z=0, is proven  相似文献   

2.
The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper we explore the dominant position of a particular style of scientific modelling in the provision of policy-relevant scientific knowledge on future climate change. We describe how the apical position of General Circulation Models (GCMs) appears to follow logically both from conventional understandings of scientific representation and the use of knowledge, so acquired, in decision-making. We argue, however, that both of these particular understandings are contestable. In addition to questioning their current policy-usefulness, we draw upon existing analyses of GCMs which discuss model trade-offs, errors, and the effects of parameterisations, to raise questions about the validity of the conception of complexity in conventional accounts. An alternative approach to modelling, incorporating concepts of uncertainty, is discussed, and an illustrative example given for the case of the global carbon cycle. In then addressing the question of how GCMs have come to occupy their dominant position, we argue that the development of global climate change science and global environmental management frameworks occurs concurrently and in a mutually supportive fashion, so uniting GCMs and environmental policy developments in certain industrialised nations and international organisations. The more basic questions about what kinds of commitments to theories of knowledge underpin different models of complexity as a normative principle of good science are concealed in this mutual reinforcement. Additionally, a rather technocratic policy orientation to climate change may be supported by such science, even though it involves political choices which deserve to be more widely debated.  相似文献   

4.
Summary The electromagnetic radiation of cloud discharge known as atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) shows a gradual fall from a frequency of 9 kHz to 81 kHz as studied over a period of two years at Calcutta, very close to Bay of Bengal. The main characteristic features of ARNFS at Calcutta are that-(i) ARNFS shows that midday median value is smaller than midnight median value in all months, (ii) level of daily minimum is higher in February and monsoon compared to other seasons, (iii) sunrise effect and sunset effect are well correlated with local sunrise and sunset times, (iv) the magnitude of sunrise fade and sunrise fade rate are maximum in April and lowest during winter period, (v) the magnitude of sunset fade is higher in premonsoon and postmonsoon while it is lowest in monsoon, (vi) number of occurrence of both sunrise effect and sunset effect is remark-ably smaller in monsoon. The positions of the sun and of atmospheric sources are jointly the causes of seasonal and diurnal variations. The missing of sunrise effect and sunset effect are due to local cloud activity and variation of electron density during geomagnetic storms.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

5.
The evaluation of the impact of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems requires establishing a reference situation. As deltaic coastal zones are highly dynamic areas, it is necessary to define the reference situation as a function of their present evolutive stage. This implies characterizing coastal processes as a complex system defined by the links between driving or forcing terms and the coastal response at different temporal and spatial scales (long/large, medium and episodic scales). Starting from classical previous works on deltaic systems and including all available field and conceptual knowledge to properly consider present conditions (largely regulated rivers, subsidence, etc.) a detailed methodology to analyse forcing or driving agents at the three mentioned scales is presented. This methodology which developed the general approach presented in a companion paper, will be followed by a future paper focusing on the analysis of the coastal response.  相似文献   

6.
Jackson and Hunt's (1975) equation for the depth of the inner layer of flows over low hills does not depend on any closure assumption as contrarily supposed in literature. This equation contains a constant which can arbitrarily be specified. It is suggested that this inner-layer constant should be determined from experimental data. A preliminary check with some data from the Askervein experiment suggests that Jackson and Hunt's equation fits these data almost as well as Jensen's equation provided that fitted inner-layer constants are used.  相似文献   

7.
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of attractors includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the optimal climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations.  相似文献   

8.
Shear convection     
The paper discusses convection in the presence of wind shear, a condition analysed previously by Zilitinkevich (1971). This region (between the forced and fully developed convective layers) was also considered by Betchov and Yaglom (1971). In the present paper the author endeavors to develop a consistent analysis from the basic hypothesis of a very weak interaction between the vertical convective motions and mechanical turbulence, employing a new similarity model of the turbulent regime. Additional experimental data are introduced. Unlike the notation used in the references quoted above, this regime is termed shear convection rather than free convection. The latter is traditionally regarded as synonymous with the terms pure or fully developed convection.  相似文献   

9.
Selected field measurements of evening stable boundary layers are presented in detail comparable with published Large Eddy Simulation results. Such models appear to match idealized theories more closely than do some boundary-layer observations. Any attempt to compare detailed observations with idealized models therefore highlights the variability of the real boundary layer.Here direct turbulence measurements across the stable boundary layer from a heterogeneous and an ideal site are contrasted. Recommendations are made for the information needed to distinguish heterogeneous and ideal cases.The companion paper (Part II) discusses further the issues of data, analysis in the presence of variability, and the effects of averaging over heterogeneous terrain.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Process Research Division.  相似文献   

10.
Public expectation as an element of human perception of climate change   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Human expectations regarding weather and climate sometimes lead to perceptions of climate change which are not supported by observational evidence. This paper analyses two very characteristic complaints about current climate in Switzerland, i.e., the lack of snow in winter and the lack of sunshine in summer, through a statistical investigation of climatological data. As one major problem of public perception of climate in mid-latitude regions is linked to the strong variability of the climatic parameters, the paper suggests means of presenting climatic data which include a measure of this variability. Such presentations would help overcome the common confusion between the terms weather and climate, and stress the fact that short-term extreme events are not necessarily indicative of a long-term shift in climate.  相似文献   

11.
The micrometeorological research program in Antarctica has provided extensive data on wind and temperature profile structure under strong to extreme inversion conditions (Dalrymple et al., 1966; Lettau et al., 1977). The basic similarity hypotheses and limiting conditions for prediction of diabatic surface layer profiles are summarized. The model by Businger et al. (1971) for dimensionless shear and temperature gradients is revised to conform with the new results for strong stability. A novel similarity hypothesis is introduced to complete the step from shear and gradient prediction to prediction of absolute wind speed, wind energy, and temperature on the basis of prescribed external factors of surface layer structure. The physics of interactions between predicted profile tilting and curving are discussed and used to explain several micrometeorological paradoxes, including that of the elevated minimum of air temperature observed occasionally near the active surface when the energy budget is of the nocturnal type.  相似文献   

12.
Flux Footprints Within and Over Forest Canopies   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  
The characteristics of turbulence within a forest arespatially heterogeneous and distinct from thoseassociated with the surface boundary layer. Consequently, the size and probability distribution offlux footprints emanating from sources below aforest canopy have the potential to differ from thoseobserved above forests.A Lagrangian random walk model was used toinvestigate this problem since no analytical solutionof the diffusion equation exists. Model calculations suggest that spatialcharacteristics of flux footprint probabilitydistributions under forest canopies are muchcontracted, compared to those evaluated in the surfaceboundary layer. The key factors affecting thestatistical spread of the flux footprint, and theposition of the peak of its probability distribution,are horizontal wind velocity and the standarddeviations of vertical and horizontal velocityfluctuations. Consequently, canopies, which attenuatemean horizontal wind speed, or atmospheric conditions,which enhance vertical velocity fluctuations, willcontract flux footprint distributions mostly near thefloor of a forest. It was also found that theprobability distributions of the flux footprint arenarrower when horizontal wind velocity fluctuationsare considered, instead of the simpler case that considers only vertical velocity fluctuations and meanhorizontal wind velocity.  相似文献   

13.
As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division  相似文献   

14.
Cloud water and interstitial aerosol samples collected at Mt. Sonnblick (SBO) were analyzed for sulfate and aerosol carbon to calculate in-cloud scavenging efficiencies. Scavenging efficiencies for sulfate (SO) ranged from 0.52 to 0.99 with an average of 0.80. Aerosol carbon was scavenged less efficiently with an average value (AC) of 0.45 and minimum and maximum values of 0.14 and 0.81, respectively. Both SO and AC showed a marked, but slightly different, dependence on the liquid water content (LWC) of the cloud. At low LWC, SO increased with rising LWC until it reached a relatively constant value of 0.83 above an LWC of 0.3 g/m3. In the case of aerosol carbon, we obtained a more gradual increase of AC up to an LWC of 0.5 g/m3. At higher LWCs, _ remained relatively constant at 0.60. As the differences between SO and A varied across the LWC range observed at SBO, we assume that part of the aerosol carbon was incorporated into the cloud droplets independently from sulfate. This hypothesis is supported by size classified aerosol measurements. The differences in the size distributions of sulfate and total carbon point to a partially external mixture. Thus, the different chemical nature and the differences in the size and mixing state of the aerosol particles are the most likely candidates for the differences in the scavenging behavior.  相似文献   

15.
Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  
While large-scale climate models (GCMs) are in principle the most appropriate tools for predicting climate changes, at present little confidence can be placed in the details of their projections. Use of tools such as crop simulation models for investigation of potential impacts of climatic change requires daily data pertaining to small spatial scales, not the monthly-averaged and large-scale information typically available from the GCMs. A method is presented to adapt stochastic weather generation models, describing daily weather variations in the present-day climate at particular locations, to generate synthetic daily time series consistent with assumed future climates. These assumed climates are specified in terms of the commonly available monthly means and variances of temperature and precipitation, including time-dependent (so-called transient) climate changes. Unlike the usual practice of applying assumed changes in mean values to historically observed data, simulation of meteorological time series also exhibiting changes in variability is possible. Considerable freedom in climate change scenario construction is allowed. The results are suitable for investigating agricultural and other impacts of a variety of hypothetical climate changes specified in terms of monthly-averaged statistics.  相似文献   

16.
Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.  相似文献   

17.
The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling resets temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this reset can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation- the current temperature.  相似文献   

18.
Components of the radiation and energy balances were measured over a clear-cut area and a mature, mixed forest during the summer of 1981 at the Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario. The work concentrated on the clear-cut site which supported a canopy layer composed primarily of bracken fern and logging remnants.Forty days of radiation data were collected at the clear-cut site. After the first four weeks of measurements (the green season), most of the ferns quickly died, and their foliage changed appearance from a green to brownish colour (the brown season). The daily mean reflection coefficient of solar radiation determined over the green season was 0.20 and decreased to 0.13 for the brown season. The corresponding value for the forest was 0.13, based on a limited amount of data. The clear-cut site received 11% and 21% less net radiation than the forest on a 24-hr and daylight-hours basis, respectively, as a consequence of the higher reflection coefficient and larger daytime longwave radiation emission.A reversing temperature difference measurement system (RTDMS), incorporating ten-junction thermopiles was employed at each site in order to determine Bowen ratios () via differential psychrometry. Both systems performed well, especially the RTDMS over the forest which was capable of resolving very small differences of temperature, typically less than 0.2 °C over a height of 3 m. The mean hourly Bowen ratio, calculated from values from 0800 to 1600 hr, varied from 0.2 to 1.0 for the forest and from 0.4 to 0.8 for the clear-cut site in the green season.A significant canopy heat storage component of the energy balance, Q S , was found at the clear-cut site. In the early morning, a portion of the available energy was used to heat the biomass materials and air within the canopy layer. The stored heat within the canopy was released later in the day, increasing the available energy total.The daily mean value of the Priestley-Taylor coefficient (Priestley and Taylor, 1972) for the green season at the clear-cut site was 1.14, and individual values tended to increase during wet surface conditions and decrease when the surface dried. The daylight mean value during dry canopy conditions at the forest was 1.05, and much higher values occurred when the canopy was wet. The enhancement of for the wet forest was a result of the evaporation of intercepted rain (which is not limited by stomatal resistance) and the concomitant transfer of sensible heat to the forest.  相似文献   

19.
The optical refractive index fluctuation has been determined from measurements of turbulent temperature and humidity fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer over the ocean. Probability density, spectral density and even- and odd-order structure functions of the refractive index fluctuation are presented. The spectral density exhibits a significant -5/3 inertial subrange as a result of the existence of a -5/3 subrange in the spectra of temperature and humidity fluctuations and in the temperature-humidity co-spectrum. The behaviour in the inertial subrange of fourth- and sixth-order structure functions of the refractive index is in reasonable agreement with that predicted by the analysis of Antonia and Van Atta (1975, 1978). The third-order structure functions of the refractive index exhibit an approximately linear dependence on separation in the inertial subrange, in agreement with a ramp model for the large coherent structure of the motion.  相似文献   

20.
The yields of products have been calculated for the reactions of hydroxyl radicals and ozone with 19 of the two-through-six carbon anthropogenic alkenes. Based on their rate of reaction, mechanisms of reactions and the ambient air distribution for these alkenes their seasonal ambient air yields have been estimated.Aldehydes predominate as products irrespective of season, with smaller yields of several ketones. Other minor products include carboxylic acids, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and alkenes. About a two-fold increase is estimated in the yields of hot biradicals and their products from summer to winter.One sensitivity analysis was made by recomputing yields at a different OH radical to O3 concentration than assumed most likely in the calculations discussed above. In addition, the sensitivity of product yields to an estimated range of seasonally averaged sunset-to-sunrise NO3 radical concentrations was calculated. The effects of free radical reactions are discussed, but these are believed to make a relatively minor contribution within the NO x -rich atmospheres that contain anthropogenic alkenes.The uncertainties in product yields associated with the range of NO3 radical concentrations assumed present is relatively small for aldehydes, as is the decrease in yield of the one carbon hot biradical. Larger uncertainties occur for ketones. Significant decreases in yields occur for larger hot biradicals, especially the branched-chain hot radicals in the presence of NO3 radicals.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号