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1.
How individuals perceive climate change is linked to whether individuals support climate policies and whether they alter their own climate-related behaviors, yet climate perceptions may be influenced by many factors beyond local shifts in weather. Infrastructure designed to control or regulate natural resources may serve as an important lens through which people experience climate, and thus may influence perceptions. Likewise, perceptions may be influenced by personal beliefs about climate change and whether it is human-induced. Here we examine farmer perceptions of historical climate change, how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate, how perceptions are related to the presence of irrigation infrastructure, and how perceptions are related to beliefs and concerns about climate change. We focus on the regions of Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay in New Zealand, where irrigation is utilized on the majority of cropland. Data are obtained through analysis of historical climate records from local weather stations, interviews (n = 20), and a farmer survey (n = 490). Across both regions, no significant historical trends in annual precipitation and summer temperatures since 1980 are observed, but winter warming trends are significant at around 0.2–0.3 °C per decade. A large fraction of farmers perceived increases in annual rainfall despite instrumental records indicating no significant trends, a finding that may be related to greater perceived water availability associated with irrigation growth. A greater fraction of farmers perceived rainfall increases in Marlborough, where irrigation growth has been most substantial. We find those classes of farmers more likely to have irrigation were also significantly more likely to perceive an increase in annual rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that perceptions of changing climate – regardless of their accuracy – are correlated with increased belief in climate change and an increased concern for future climate impacts. Those farmers that believe climate change is occurring and is human induced are more likely to perceive temperature increases than farmers who believe climate change is not occurring and is not human induced. These results suggest that perceptions are influenced by a variety of personal and environmental factors, including infrastructure, which may in turn alter decisions about climate adaptation.  相似文献   

2.
This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.  相似文献   

3.
The study has analyzed the variability and trends in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days of four locations over different agro-ecological zones of Bihar, namely Samastipur (zone-I), Madhepura (zone-II), Sabour (zone-IIIA) and Patna (zone-IIIB). The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test was employed for detection of statistical significance and slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. The variability and trends of onset of effective monsoon and length of monsoon period were also analyzed using the same method. The mean annual rainfall varies from 1137 mm at Patna to 1219 mm at Sabour. July is the rainiest month in all the zones followed by August. Maximum increase in annual rainfall was found at Sabour (40.1% of mean/30 years at 95% confidence level) and minimum for Patna (10.1% of mean/30 years). Significant increasing trend of rainfall during July, August and September at rates of 41.9, 83.2, and 112.7% of the mean/30 years, respectively has been noticed at Madhepura. Analysis of rainy days indicates that rainy days increased during winter and annually for all the sites. The mean effective onset of monsoon varies from 18th June at Sabour to 28th June at Patna. The trends in the date of effective onset of monsoon indicate that the date tends to be early in all the sites except Madhepura. But a significant delayed trend in the onset at a rate of 2.8% of the mean/30 years has been observed for Madhepura. The early trend of the effective onset of monsoon and increasing trends of length of monsoon season have been observed for Samastipur, Sabour and Patna.  相似文献   

4.
Hourly data of CO2 fugacity (fCO2) at 8°N–38°W were analyzed from 2008 to 2011. Analyses of wind, rainfall, temperature and salinity data from the buoy indicated two distinct seasonal periods. The first period (January to July) had a mean fCO2 of 378.9 μatm (n = 7512). During this period, in which the study area was characterized by small salinity variations, the fCO2 is mainly controlled by sea surface temperature (SST) variations (fCO2 = 24.4*SST-281.1, r2 = 0.8). During the second period (August–December), the mean fCO2 was 421.9 μatm (n = 11571). During these months, the region is subjected to the simultaneous action of (a) rainfall induced by the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); (b) arrival of fresh water from the Amazon River plume that is transported to the east by the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) after the retroflection of the North Brazil Current (NBC); and (c) vertical input of CO2-rich water due to Ekman pumping. The data indicated the existence of high-frequency fCO2 variability (periods less than 24 h). This high variability is related to two different mechanisms. In the first mechanism, fCO2 increases are associated to rapid increases in SST and are attributed to the diurnal cycle of solar radiation. In addition, low wind speed contributes to SST rising by inhibiting vertical mixing. In the second mechanism, fCO2 decreases are associated to SSS decreases caused by heavy rainfall.  相似文献   

5.
This paper highlights the relationship between precipitation variability at the sub-regional level in the Southwest United States and the SOI and PDO climate teleconnection indices during the period 1950–2000. Statistical correlations at α = 0.05 and 0.01 levels are calculated for fall, winter, and spring precipitation in the Southwest, and contemporaneous and antecedent seasonal SOI and PDO index values. A strong SOI-winter precipitation signal is seen to progress across Arizona and New Mexico from southwest to northeast over a three-season lagged period. The PDO also exhibits a strong relationship with winter and spring precipitation in New Mexico; however, the PDO is not well correlated with precipitation in Arizona. The results underscore the non-uniform spatio-temporal relationships of the SOI and PDO indices as they relate to the precipitation regime of the Southwest, and provide a framework for future diagnostic analyses of these relationships.  相似文献   

6.
The variability of sea surface Total Alkalinity (TA) and sea surface Total Inorganic Carbon (CT) is examined using all available data in the western tropical Atlantic (WTA: 20°S-20°N, 60°W-20°W). Lowest TA and CT are observed for the region located between 0°N-15°N/60°W-50°W and are explained by the influence of the Amazon plume during boreal summer. In the southern part of the area, 20°S-10°S/40°W-60°W, the highest values of TA and CT are linked to the CO2–rich waters due to the equatorial upwelling, which are transported by the South Equatorial Current (SEC) flowing from the African coast to the Brazilian shore. An increase of CT of 0.9 ± 0.3 μmol kg−1yr−1 has been observed in the SEC region and is consistent with previous published estimates. A revised CT-Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) relationship is proposed for the WTA to take into account the variability of CT at low salinities. This new CT-SSS relationship together with a published TA-SSS relationship allow to calculate pCO2 values that compare well with observed pCO2 (R2 = 0.90).  相似文献   

7.
Conventional surface data and quantitative estimations of precipitation are used to document the occurrence and spatial distribution of severe weather phenomena associated with deep moist convection over southeastern South America.Data used in this paper are 24-hour rainfall, maximum hourly gusts and present weather reports from the surface station network for Argentina to the north of 40°S and cover the period 2000–2005. Hourly rainfall estimated with the CMORPH technique (CPC MORPHing technique, R. J. Joyce et al., 2004) is included in the analysis in order to increase the density of the precipitation database from January 2003 to December 2005. Extreme events are detected by means of a 95th-percentile analysis of the 24-hour rainfall and wind; values greater than 30 mm and 25 m s?1 respectively are considered extreme in the study area. These results are related to the presence of deep convection by considering the 235 K and 218 K cloud shield evolution in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 Infrared (GOES-IR) imagery evaluated by the Forecasting and Tracking of Cloud Cluster (FORTRACC) technique. Rainfall above 30 mm day?1 and present convection-related weather events tend to occur in the northeast of the country.Finally, an analysis is made of the relationship between severe phenomena and the location and lifecycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) defined by the 218 K or 235 K levels. According to the reports, favorable locations for severe weather concentrate to the northeast of the cloud shield anvil centroid although most of the cases are found in the northwest. This feature can be seen in systems with anvil areas larger than 250,000 km2 in association to the predominant mid-level wind shear direction from the northwest over the area. Moreover, systems with centers located north of 30°S present a more circular shape while those to the south are more elongated with a NW–SE main axis clearly related to the presence and interaction with frontal zones over the area. Most of the events occur previous to the moment when the systems reach their maximum extension, between 2 and 10 h after the initiation of the system depending on the size of the MCSs.  相似文献   

8.
A mooring equipped with 200 high-resolution temperature sensors between 6 and 404 m above the bottom was moored in 1890 m water depth above a steep, about 10° slope of Mount Josephine, NE-Atlantic. The sensors have a precision of less than 0.5 mK. They are synchronized via induction every 4 h so that the 400 m range is measured to within 0.02 s, every 1 s. Thin cables and elliptical buoyancy assured vertical mooring motions to be smaller than 0.1 m under maximum 0.2 m s−1 current speeds. The local bottom slope is supercritical for semidiurnal internal tides by a factor of two. Exploring a one-month record in detail, the observations show: 1/semidiurnal tidal dominance in variations of dissipation rate ε, eddy diffusivity Kz and temperature, but no significant correlation between the records of ε and total kinetic energy, 2/a variation with time over four orders of magnitude of 100-m vertically averaged ε, 3/a local minimum in density stratification between 50 and 100 m above the bottom, 4/a gradual decrease in daily or longer averaged ε and Kz by one order of magnitude over a vertical distance of 250 m, upwards from 150 m above the bottom, 5/monthly mean values of <[ε]> = 2 ± 0.5 × 10−7 m2 s−3, <[Kz]> = 8 ± 3 × 10−3 m2 s−1 averaged over the lower 150 m above the bottom.  相似文献   

9.
Rainfall characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are analyzed primarily using tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR), TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and lighting imaging sensor (LIS) data. Latent heating structure is also examined using latent heating data estimated with the spectral latent heating (SLH) algorithm.The zonal structure, time evolution, and characteristic stages of the MJO precipitation system are described. Stratiform rain fraction increases with the cloud activity, and the amplitude of stratiform rain variation associated with the MJO is larger than that of convective rain by a factor of 1.7. Maximum peaks of both convective rain and stratiform rain precede the minimum peak of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly which is often used as a proxy for the MJO convection. Stratiform rain remains longer than convective rain until ∼4000 km behind the peak of the mature phase. The stratiform rain contribution results in the top-heavy heating profile of the MJO.Associated with the MJO, there are tri-pole convective rain top heights (RTH) at 10–11, ∼7 and ∼3 km, corresponding to the dominance of afternoon showers, organized systems, and shallow convections, respectively. The stratiform rain is basically organized with convective rain, having similar but slightly lower RTH and slightly lags the convective rain maximum. It is notable that relatively moderate (∼7 km) RTH is dominant in the mature phase of the MJO, while very tall rainfall with RTH over 10 km and lightning frequency increase in the suppressed phase. The rain-yield-per flash (RPF) varies about 20–100% of the mean value of ∼2–10 × 109 kg fl−1 over the tropical warm ocean and that of ∼2–5 × 109 kg fl−1 over the equatorial Islands, between the convectively suppressed phase and the active phase of MJO, in the manner that RPF is smaller in the suppressed phase and larger in the active phase.  相似文献   

10.
2C or not 2C?     
Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2 °C. However, there is no consensus on both questions “Is the 2 °C target achievable?” and “What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?”. This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2 °C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an “uncertainties and decisions tree”, linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.  相似文献   

11.
Tropical rainforests, naturally resistant to fire when intact, are increasingly vulnerable to burning due to ongoing forest perturbation and, possibly, climatic changes. Industrial-scale forest degradation and conversion are increasing fire occurrence, and interactions with climate anomalies such as El Niño induced droughts can magnify the extent and severity of fire activity. The influences of these factors on fire frequency in tropical forests has not been widely studied at large spatio-temporal scales at which feedbacks between fire reoccurrence and forest degradation may develop. Linkages between fire activity, industrial land use, and El Niño rainfall deficits are acute in Borneo, where the greatest tropical fire events in recorded history have apparently occurred in recent decades. Here we investigate how fire frequency in Borneo has been influenced by industrial-scale agricultural development and logging during El Niño periods by integrating long-term satellite observations between 1982 and 2010 – a period encompassing the onset, development, and consolidation of its Borneo’s industrial forestry and agricultural operations as well as the full diversity of El Niño events. We record changes in fire frequency over this period by deriving the longest and most comprehensive spatio-temporal record of fire activity across Borneo using AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) satellite data. Monthly fire frequency was derived from these data and modelled at 0.04° resolution via a random-forest model, which explained 56% of the monthly variation as a function of oil palm and timber plantation extent and proximity, logging intensity and proximity, human settlement, climate, forest and peatland condition, and time, observed using Landsat and similar satellite data. Oil-palm extent increased fire frequency until covering 20% of a grid cell, signalling the significant influence of early stages of plantation establishment. Heighted fire frequency was particularly acute within 10 km of oil palm, where both expanding plantation and smallholder agriculture are believed to be contributing factors. Fire frequency increased abruptly and dramatically when rainfall fell below 200 mm month−1, especially as landscape perturbation increased (indicated by vegetation index data). Logging intensity had a negligible influence on fire frequency, including on peatlands, suggesting a more complex response of logged forest to burning than appreciated. Over time, the epicentres of high-frequency fires expanded from East Kalimantan (1980’s) to Central and West Kalimantan (1990’s), coincidentally but apparently slightly preceding oil-palm expansion, and high-frequency fires then waned in East Kalimantan and occurred only in Central and West Kalimantan (2000’s). After accounting for land-cover changes and climate, our model under-estimates observed fire frequency during ca. 1990–2002 and over-estimates it thereafter, suggesting that a multi-decadal shift to industrial forest conversion and forest landscapes may have diminished the propensity for high-frequency fires in much of this globally significant tropical region since ca. 2000.  相似文献   

12.
With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity, comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 °C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO2-equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries, with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models.  相似文献   

13.
A new methodology is proposed to estimate the strength of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA), using the gridded sea level pressure (SLP) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis data. The top quartile (1017.3 hPa) of the SLP data was found a reasonable criterion to delimit the SAA area. Consequently, we defined the SAA area as the quadrangle containing 80% of the observations with pressure >1017.3 hPa. In this quadrangle, an area weighted pressure gradient (AWPG) was computed for the whole area and for the north–south and west–east halves. When compared with maximum pressure, the AWPG showed a better correlation with the significant wave height (SWH) and wind speed (WS) derived from altimetry. The mean value of the AWPG was 8 × 10−4 Pa/m, with representative values of 9.1 × 10−4 Pa/m and 7.4 × 10−4 Pa/m for austral winter and summer, respectively. The phase difference between the monthly AWPG in the north and south sub-quadrangles accounts for the evolution of the spatial pattern of the anticyclone throughout a year. This quantitative approach proved to be a useful estimate of the strength of South Atlantic Anticyclone. Further improvements of this approach are discussed.  相似文献   

14.
Climate output from the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 and HadCM3 experiments for the period 1860 to 2100, with IS92a greenhouse gas forcing, together with predicted patterns of N deposition and increasing CO2, were input (offline) to the dynamic vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1 (Friend et al., 1997; Friend and White, 1999). This model represents biogeochemical, biophysical and biogeographical processes, coupling the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles on a sub-daily timestep, simulating potential vegetation and transient changes in annual growth and competition between eight generalized plant types in response to climate.Global vegetation carbon was predicted to rise from about 600 to 800 PgC (or to 650 PgC for HadCM3) while the soil carbon pool of about 1100 PgC decreased by about 8%. By the 2080s, climate change caused a partial loss of Amazonian rainforest, C4 grasslands and temperate forest in areas of southern Europe and eastern USA, but an expansion in the boreal forest area. These changes were accompanied by a decrease in net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in many tropical areas, southern Europe and eastern USA (in response to warming and a decrease in rainfall), but an increase in NPP of boreal forests. Global NPP increased from 45 to 50 PgC y−1 in the 1990s to about 65 PgC y−1 in the 2080s (about 58 PgC y−1 for HadCM3). Global net ecosystem productivity (NEP) increased from about 1.3 PgC y−1 in the 1990s to about 3.6 PgC y−1 in the 2030s and then declined to zero by 2100 owing to a loss of carbon from declining forests in the tropics and at warm temperate latitudes — despite strengthening of the carbon sink at northern high latitudes. HadCM3 gave a more erratic temporal evolution of NEP than HadCM2, with a dramatic collapse in NEP in the 2050s.  相似文献   

15.
Present study focuses on examination snowfall variability over Gulmarg and Pahalgam of Kashmir Valley in India during past 31 years (1980–2010). Trends in temperature over the study area is also explored. Minimum and maximum temperature shows increasing trends which is consistent with increase in black carbon column mass density. Increase in black carbon mass density is attributed to urbanization over study area. Trends of minimum temperature is statistically significant. It is reported that snowfall over the Pahalgam shows decreasing trend except for the month of February and January. Pahalgam shows a significant decreasing trend in snowfall of about 48 mm per decade during March. Pahalgam and Gulmarg show seasonal decreasing trends of snowfall of about 15 mm and 1.8 mm per decade, respectively. These decreasing trends in snowfall are consistent with decadal increasing trends of about 1.2 °C and 0.8 °C in minimum temperature over Pahalgam and Gulmarg, respectively. Seasonal snowfall over both the regions shows decreasing trend (insignificant). Results reported in this study show a decrease of about 24.16% ± 9.86% per degree increase in minimum temperature over Pahalgam. Changing characteristics of snowfall in the context of anthropogenic warming present major challenges to the tourism and socioeconomic aspects over the Valley.  相似文献   

16.
We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1 °C and 2 °C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, we investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers’ educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk of more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure.  相似文献   

17.
The U.S. road network is one of the nation's most important capital assets and is vital to the functioning of the U.S. economy. Maintaining this asset involves approximately $134 billion of government funds annually from Federal, State, and local agencies. Climate change may represent a risk or an opportunity to this network, as changes in climate stress will affect the resources necessary for both road maintenance and construction projects. This paper develops an approach for estimating climate-related changes in road maintenance and construction costs such that the current level of service provided by roads is maintained over time. We estimate these costs under a baseline scenario in which annual mean global temperature increases by 1.5 °C in 2050 relative to the historical average and a mitigation scenario under which this increase in mean temperature is limited to 1.0 °C. Depending on the nature of the changes in climate that occur in a given area, our analysis suggests that climate change may lead to a reduction in road maintenance and/or construction costs or an increase in costs. Overall, however, our analysis shows that climate change, if unchecked, will increase the annual costs of keeping paved and unpaved roads in service by $785 million in present value terms by 2050. When not discounted, this figure increases to $2.8 billion. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to reduce these costs by approximately $280 million in present value terms and by $885 million when not discounted. These costs vary substantially by region and time period, information that should be important for transportation planners at the national, state, and local levels.  相似文献   

18.
The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) fast retrieval method retrieves rain rates and classifies precipitation types for applications in nowcasting and weather monitoring. The retrieval scheme consists of two fast algorithms, over land and over ocean, that use the water vapour absorption lines at 183.31 GHz corresponding to the channels 3 (183.31 ± 1 GHz), 4 (183.31 ± 3 GHz) and 5 (183.31 ± 7 GHz) of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and Metop-A satellite series, respectively.The method retrieves rain rates by exploiting the extinction of radiation due to rain drops following four subsequent steps. After ingesting the satellite data stream, the window channels at 89 and 150 GHz are used to compute scattering-based thresholds and the 183-WSLW module for rainfall area discrimination and precipitation type classification as stratiform or convective on the basis of the thresholds calculated for land/mixed and sea surfaces. The thresholds are based on the brightness temperature difference Δwin = TB89 ? TB150 and are different over land (L) and over sea (S): cloud droplets and water vapour (Δwin < 3 K L; Δwin < 0 K S), stratiform rain (3 K < Δwin < 10 K L; 0 K < Δwin < 10 K S), and convective rain (Δwin > 10 K L and S). The thresholds, initially empirically derived from observations, are corroborated by the simulations of the RTTOV radiative transfer model applied to 20000 ECMWF atmospheric profiles at midlatitudes and the use of data from the Nimrod radar network. A snow cover mask and a digital elevation model are used to eliminate false rain area attribution, especially over elevated terrain. A probability of detection logistic function is also applied in the transition region from no-rain to rain adjacent to the clouds to ensure continuity of the rainfall field. Finally, the last step is dedicated to the rain rate retrieval with the modules 183-WSLS (stratiform) and 183WSLC (convective), and the module 183-WSL for total rainfall intensity derivation.A comparison with rainfall retrievals from the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) TRMM 2A12 algorithm is done with good results on a stratiform and hurricane case studies. A comparison is also conducted with the MSG-based Precipitation Index (PI) and the Scattering Index (SI) for a convective-stratiform event showing good agreement with the 183-WSLC retrieval. A complete validation of the product is the subject of Part II of the paper.  相似文献   

19.
This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5 billion/year are projected to reach €98 billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53 billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

20.
The short-term rainfall climatology regime over Saudi Arabia is obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for the period 1998–2009. The TRMM rainfall amounts are calibrated with respect to the rain-gauge data recorded at 29 stations across the country. Day-to-day rainfall comparisons show that the TRMM rainfall trends are very similar to the observed data trends, even if a general overestimation in the satellite products must be highlighted. Besides, especially during the wet season, some of the TRMM algorithm runs tend to underestimate the retrieved rainfalls. The TRMM rainfall data also closely follow the observed annual cycle on a monthly scale. The correlation coefficient for rainfall between the TRMM and the rain-gauge data is about 0.90, with a 99% level of significance on the monthly scale.The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over Saudi Arabia are analyzed. Besides the four conventional seasons, this analysis consider the wet (November–April) and dry (June–September) seasons, based on the rainfall amounts recorded. Spring is the highest and winter is the second highest rainfall-occurring season, resulting in large amounts of rainfall during the wet season over most of the country. Regional variations in the rainfall climatology over Saudi Arabia are studied through defining four regions. The false alarm ratio, probability of detection, threat score, and skill score are calculated to evaluate the TRMM performance. The country's average annual rainfall measured by the TRMM is 89.42 mm, whereas the observed data is 82.29 mm. Thus, the rainfall in Saudi Arabia is suggested as being the TRMM value multiplied by 0.93 plus 0.04. After this calibration, the TRMM-measured rainfall is almost 100% of the observed data, thereby confirming that TRMM data may be used in a variety of water-related applications in Saudi Arabia.  相似文献   

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