CMIP5多模式集合对东北三省未来气候变化的预估研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陶纯苇  姜超  孙建新 《地球物理学报》2016,59(10):3580-3591

应用CN05观测资料,以及参与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中的26个模式,评估了新一代全球气候模式对东北三省气候变化模拟能力并选出4个较优模式,发现经过筛选得出的较优模式集合平均模拟结果的可靠性得到进一步加强,尤其体现在对气温的模拟上.在此基础上着重分析了多模式集合在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)下对未来气候变化特征的预估.结果表明:21世纪的未来阶段,东北三省将处于显著增温的状态,且RCP8.5情景下的增温速率(0.53℃/10a)明显高于RCP4.5情景下的速率(0.22℃/10a);空间上,北部地区将成为增温幅度最大、增温速率最高的区域.未来降水将会相对增加,但波动较大,21世纪末期RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的降水增加幅度分别为11.24%和15.95%;空间上,辽宁省西部地区将成为降水增加最为显著的区域.根据水分盈亏量,21世纪未来阶段,RCP4.5情景下的东北三省绝大多数地区未来将相对变湿,尤其到了中后期;RCP8.5情景下则是中西部地区将相对变干,其余地区则会相对变湿.  相似文献   

Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs,simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model     

Markus Konzmann  Jens Heinke 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):88-105

Abstract

This study quantifies global changes in irrigation requirements for areas presently equipped for irrigation of major crop types, using climate projections from 19 GCMs up to the 2080s. Analysis is based on results from the global eco-hydrological model LPJmL that simulates the complex and dynamic interplay of direct and indirect climate change effects upon irrigation requirements. We find a decrease in global irrigation demand by ～17% in the ensemble median, due to a combination of beneficial CO₂ effects on plants, shorter growing periods and regional precipitation increases. In contrast, increases of >20% are projected with a high likelihood (i.e. in more than two thirds of the climate change scenarios) for some regions, including southern Europe, and, with a lower likelihood, for parts of Asia and North America as well. If CO₂ effects were not accounted for, however, global irrigation demand would hardly change, and increases would prevail in most regions except for southern Asia (where higher precipitation is projected). We stress that the CO₂ effects may not be realized everywhere, that irrigation requirements will probably increase further due to growing global food demand (not considered here), and that a significant amount of water to meet future irrigation requirements will have to be taken from fossil groundwater, environmental flow reserves or diverted rivers.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., and Heinke, J., 2013. Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs, simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–18.  相似文献   

Drought projection based on a hybrid drought index using Artificial Neural Networks          下载免费PDF全文

Tao Yang  Xudong Zhou  Zhongbo Yu  Valentina Krysanova  Bo Wang 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2635-2648

The Tarim River Basin is a special endorheic arid drainage basin in Central Asia, characterized by limited rainfall and high evaporation as common in deserts, while water is supplied mainly by glacier and snow melt from the surrounding mountains. The existing drought indices can hardly capture the drought features in this region as droughts are caused by two dominant factors (meteorological and hydrological conditions). To overcome the problem, a new hybrid drought index (HDI), integrating the meteorological and hydrological drought regimes, was developed and tested in the basin in the work. The index succeeded in revealing the drought characteristics and the ensemble influence better than the single standardized precipitation index or the hydrological index. The Artificial Neural Network approach based on temperature and precipitation observations was set up to simulate the HDI change. The method enabled constructing scenarios of future droughts in the region using climate simulation of the GCMs under four RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP5 project. The simulations in the study have shown that the water budget patterns in the Tarim River Basin are more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Dominated by temperature rise causing an accelerating snow/glacier melt, the frequency of drought months is projected to decrease by about 14% in the next decades (until 2035). The drought duration is expected to be shortened to 3 months on average, with the severity alleviated. However, the region would still suffer more severe droughts with a high intensity in some years. The general decrease in drought frequency and intensity over the region in the future would be beneficial for water resources management and agriculture development in the oases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估   总被引：23，自引：2，他引：21       下载免费PDF全文

吴佳  周波涛  徐影 《地球物理学报》2015,58(9):3048-3060

基于24个CMIP5全球耦合模式模拟结果,分析了中国区域年平均降水和ETCCDI强降水量(R95p)、极端强降水量(R99p)对增暖的响应.定量分析结果显示,CMIP5集合模拟的当代中国区域平均降水对增温的响应较观测偏弱,而极端降水的响应则偏强.对各子区域气温与平均降水、极端降水的关系均有一定的模拟能力,并且极端降水的模拟好于平均降水.RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,随着气温的升高,中国区域平均降水和极端降水均呈现一致增加的趋势,中国区域平均气温每升高1℃,平均降水增加的百分率分别为3.5%和2.4%,R95p增加百分率为11.9%和11.0%,R99p更加敏感,分别增加21.6%和22.4%.就各分区来看,当代的区域性差异较大,未来则普遍增强,并且区域性差异减小,在持续增暖背景下,中国及各分区极端降水对增暖的响应比平均降水更强,并且越强的极端降水敏感性越大.未来北方地区平均降水对增暖的响应比南方地区的要大,青藏高原和西南地区的R95p和R99p增加最显著,表明未来这些区域发生暴雨和洪涝的风险将增大.  相似文献   

The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a humid,equatorial catchment: sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):727-738

Abstract

Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km²) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period.  相似文献   

Attribution analysis for the failure of CMIP5 climate models to simulate the recent global warming hiatus     

Meng Wei  FangLi Qiao 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2017,60(2):397-408

The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far.However,these models significantly overestimated global mean surface temperature(GMST)during 2006-2014.Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method,the long term change of the observed GMST time series of HadCRUT4 records during 1850-2014 was analyzed,then the simulated GMST by 33 CMIP5 climate models was assessed.The possible reason that climate models failed to project the recent global warming hiatus was revealed.Results show that during 1850-2014 the GMST on a centennial timescale rose with fluctuation,dominated by the secular trend and the multi-decadal variability(MDV).The secular trend was relatively steady beginning in the early 20th century,with an average warming rate of 0.0883℃/decade over the last 50 years.While the MDV(with a~65-year cycle)showed2.5 multi-decadal waves during 1850-2014,which deepened and steepened with time,the alarming warming over the last quarter of the 20th century was a result of the concurrence of the secular warming trend and the warming phase of the MDV,both of which accounted one third of the temperature increase during 1975-1998.Recently the slowdown of global warming emerged as the MDV approached its third peak,leading to a reduction in the warming rate.A comparative analysis between the GMST time series derived from HadCRUT4 records and 33 CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the GMSTs during the historical simulation period of 1850-2005 can be reproduced well by models,especially on the accelerated global warming over the last quarter of 20th century.However,the projected GMSTs and their linear trends during 2006-2014 under the RCP4.5 scenario were significantly higher than observed.This is because the CMIP5 models confused the MDV with secular trend underlying the GMST time series,which results in a fast secular trend and an improper MDV with irregular phases and small amplitudes.This implies that the role of atmospheric CO_2 in global warming may be overestimated,while the MDV which is an interior oscillation of the climate system may be underestimated,which should be related to insufficient understanding of key climatic internal dynamic processes.Our study puts forward an important criterion for the new generation of climate models:they should be able to simulate both the secular trend and the MDV of GMST.  相似文献   

Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021–2050) and a distant-future (2069–2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961–1990).Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95th percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: linear trends for the entire period (1961–2098) estimated by the Theil-Sen method with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Kendall test, and climate-median differences between the two future climates and the past climate with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Whitney test. Significant inferences of climate change spatial patterns are made after these non-parametric statistics of the multi-model ensemble median, while the associated uncertainties are quantified by the spread of these statistics across the multi-model ensemble. Significant and robust climate change inferences of the spatial patterns are then obtained by building the climate change patterns using only the grid points where a significant climate change is found with a predefined low uncertainty.Results highlight the importance of taking into account the spread across an ensemble of climate simulations when making inferences on climate change from the ensemble-mean or ensemble-median. This is specially true for climate projections of extreme indices such CDD and R95T. For PRCTOT, a decrease in annual precipitation over the entire peninsula is projected, specially in the north and northwest where it can decrease down to 400 mm by the middle of the 21st century. This decrease is expected to occur throughout the year except in winter. Annual CDD is projected to increase till the middle of the 21st century overall the peninsula, reaching more than three weeks in the southwest. This increase is projected to occur in summer and spring. For Rx5day, a decrease is projected to occur during spring and autumn in the major part of the peninsula, and during summer in northern Iberia. Finally, R95T is projected to decrease around 20% in northern Iberia in summer, and around 15% in the south-southwest in autumn.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal changes of precipitation and temperature over the Pearl River basin based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble     

Xiaoyan?Wang  Tao?YangEmail author  Xiaoli?Li  Pengfei?Shi  Xudong?Zhou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1077-1089

Projections of changes in climate are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. However, current knowledge on assembling different GCMs to estimate future climate change over the Pear River basin is still limited so far. This study examined the capability of BMA and arithmetic mean (AM) method in assembling precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Pearl River basin. Results show that the BMA outperforms the traditional AM method. Precipitation tends to increase over the basin under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, whereas decrease under RCP8.5. The most remarkable increase of precipitation is found in the northern region under RCP2.6 scenario. The linear trend of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature increases with the growing CO₂ concentration. The warming trends in four seasons are distinct. The warming rate is prominent in summer and spring than that in other season, meanwhile it is larger in western region than in other parts of the basin. The findings can provide beneficial reference to water resources and agriculture management strategies, as well as the adaptation and mitigation strategies for floods and droughts under the context of global climate change.  相似文献   

Impacts of climate variability and change on drought characteristics in the Niger River Basin,West Africa   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Philip?G.?OguntundeEmail author  Gunnar?Lischeid  Babatunde?J.?Abiodun 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1017-1034

West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past (1986–2005) and future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) were analyzed. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to quantify river flow. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA4 ensemble gives realistic simulations of the climatology of the Basin in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and frequency are projected over NRB. The coupling between SRI and drought indices was very strong (P < 0.05). The dominant peaks can be classified into three distinct drought cycles with periods 1–2, 2–4, 4–8 years. These cycles may be associated with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). River flow was highly sensitive to precipitation in the NRB and a 1–3 month lead time was found between drought indices and SRI. Under RCP4.5, changes in the SPEI drought frequency range from 1.8 (2046–2065) to 2.4 (2081–2100) month year^?1 while under RCP8.5, the change ranges from 2.2 (2046–2065) to 3.0 month year^?1 (2081–2100). Niger Middle sub-basin is likely to be mostly impacted in the future while the Upper Niger was projected to be least impacted. Results of this study may guide policymakers to evolve strategies to facilitate vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity of the basin in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

Future hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin,Malaysia, based on CORDEX-SEA projections     

Mou Leong Tan  Liew Juneng  Fredolin T. Tangang  Ngai Weng Chan  Sheau Tieh Ngai 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(8):921-933

Water scarcity issues in the Johor River Basin (JRB) could affect the populations of Malaysia and Singapore. This study provides an overview of future hydro-meteorological droughts using climate projections from an ensemble of four Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments – Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA) domain outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 periods. The climate projections were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach before being incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were used to examine the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Overall, future annual precipitation, streamflow, and maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to change by about ?44.2 to 24.3%, ?88.7 to 42.2%, 0.8 to 3.7ºC and 0.7 to 4.7ºC, respectively. The results show that the JRB is likely to receive more frequent meteorological droughts in the future.  相似文献   

区域气候模式RegCM3对华北地区未来气候变化的数值模拟   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

张冬峰  石英 《地球物理学报》2012,55(9):2854-2866

采用高水平分辨率区域气候模式进行区域未来气候变化预估,对理解全球增暖对区域气候的潜在影响和科学评估区域气候变化有很好的参考价值.这里对国家气候中心使用25 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3单向嵌套全球模式MIROC3.2_hires在观测温室气体(1951—2000)和IPCC A1B温室气体排放情景下(2001—2100)进行的共计150年长时间模拟结果,进行华北地区未来气温、降水和极端气候事件变化的分析.模式检验结果表明:模式对当代(1981—2000)气温以及和气温有关的极端气候事件(霜冻日数、生长季长度)的空间分布和数值模拟较好;对降水及和降水有关的极端气候事件(强降水日期、降水强度、五日最大降水量)能够模拟出它们各自的主要空间分布特征,但在模拟数值上存在偏大、偏强的误差.和全球模式驱动场相比,区域模式模拟的气温、降水和极端气候事件有明显的改进.2010—2100年华北地区随时间区域平均气温升高幅度逐渐增大,随之霜冻日数逐渐减少,生长季长度逐渐增多;同时随温室效应的不断加剧,未来降水呈增加的趋势,强降水日期和五日最大降水量逐渐增多、降水强度逐渐增大.从空间分布看,21世纪末期(2081—2100)气温、降水以及有关的极端气候事件变化比21世纪中期(2041—2060)更加明显.  相似文献   

Snow and climate trends and their impact on seasonal runoff and hydrological drought types in selected mountain catchments in Central Europe     

Andrea Blahušiaková  Milada Matoušková  Michal Jenicek  Ondřej Ledvinka  Zdeněk Kliment  Jana Podolinská 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(12):2083-2096

ABSTRACT

This study investigates changes in seasonal runoff and low flows related to changes in snow and climate variables in mountainous catchments in Central Europe. The period 1966–2012 was used to assess trends in climate and streamflow characteristics using a modified Mann–Kendall test. Droughts were classified into nine classes according to key snow and climate drivers. The results showed an increase in air temperature, decrease in snowfall fraction and snow depth, and changes in precipitation. This resulted in increased winter runoff and decreased late spring runoff due to earlier snowmelt, especially at elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. Most of the hydrological droughts were connected to either low air temperatures and precipitation during winter or high winter air temperatures which caused below-average snow storages. Our findings show that, besides precipitation and air temperature, snow plays an important role in summer streamflow and drought occurrence in selected mountainous catchments.  相似文献   

Water regime of Vrana Lake in Dalmatia (Croatia): changes,risks and problems     

Josip Rubinić 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1908-1924

Abstract

Vrana Lake in Dalmatia is a karstic kryptodepression connected to the nearby sea through the karstic subsoil and a canal. Due to interactions with the sea, lake water salinity increases greatly during severe dry periods, seriously endangering the ecosystem. Trend analysis (1961–2010) reveals a decrease in precipitation and surface inflow, but an increase in air temperature, and in sea and lake water levels. Lake inflow and water losses are only partially monitored. Average annual inflow from the monitored part of the catchment is 1722 m³ s^-1, but total inflow is significantly greater; the average difference between total inflow and cumulative water losses is 3072 m³ s^-1. The paper uses modelling to evaluate total inflow into the lake system, taking into consideration projected climate changes/variations till 2100 from the RegCM3 and ALADIN climate models. The analysis indicates marked decrease in discharge values by the end of this century, by as much as 60%.