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1.
Abstract

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and ecosystem is important in the study of the Loess Plateau, China, which is well known for its high erosion rates and ecosystem sensitivity to global change. A distributed ecohydrological model was developed and applied in the Jinghe River basin of the Loess Plateau. This model couples the vegetation model, BIOME BioGeochemicalCycles (BIOME-BGC) and the distributed hydrological model, Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L). The WEP-L model provided hydro-meteorological data to BIOME-BGC, and the vegetation parameters of WEP-L were updated at a daily time step by BIOME-BGC. The model validation results show good agreement with field observation data and literature values of leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP) and river discharge. Average climate projections of 23 global climate models (GCMs), based on three emissions scenarios, were used in simulations to assess future ecohydrological responses in the Jinghe River basin. The results show that global warming impacts would decrease annual discharge and flood season discharge, increase annual NPP and decrease annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Increasing evapotranspiration (ET) due to air temperature increase, as well as increases in precipitation and LAI, are the main reasons for the decreasing discharge. The increase in annual NPP is caused by a greater increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in plant respiration, whilst the decrease in NEP is caused by a larger increase in heterotrophic respiration than in NPP. Both the air temperature increase and the precipitation increase may affect the changes in NPP and NEP. These results present a serious challenge for water and land management in the basin, where mitigation/adaption measures for climate change are desired.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Peng, H., Jia, Y.W., Qiu, Y.Q., and Niu, C.W., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 651–670.  相似文献   

2.
In this article, we propose an investigation of the modifications of the hydrological response of two Peruvian Amazonas–Andes basins in relationship with the modifications of the precipitation and evapotranspiration rates inferred by the IPCC. These two basins integrate around 10% of the total area of the Amazonian basin. These estimations are based on the application of two monthly hydrological models, GR2M and MWB3, and the climatic projections come from BCM2, CSMK3 and MIHR models for A1B and B1 emission scenarios (SCE A1B and SCE B1). Projections are approximated by two simple scenarios (anomalies and horizon) and annual rainfall rates, evapotranspiration rates and discharge were estimated for the 2020s (2008–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2099). Annual discharge shows increasing trend over Requena basin (Ucayali river), Puerto Inca basin (Pachitea river), Tambo basin (Tambo river) and Mejorada basin (Mantaro river) while discharge shows decreasing trend over the Chazuta basin (Huallaga river), the Maldonadillo basin (Urubamba river) and the Pisac basin (Vilcanota river). Monthly discharge at the outlet of Puerto Inca, Tambo and Mejorada basins shows increasing trends for all seasons. Trends to decrease are estimated in autumn discharge over the Requena basin and spring discharge over Pisac basin as well as summer and autumn discharges over both the Chazuta and the Maldonadillo basins. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

The impact of fire on daily discharges from two mountainous basins located in the permafrost region of Eastern Siberia, the Vitimkan (969 km2) and Vitim (18 200 km2) rivers, affected by fire over 78% and 49% of their areas, respectively, in 2003, was investigated. The results of hydrological and meteorological data analysis suggest that the Vitimkan River basin had a rapid and profound hydrological response to wildfire in 2003 expressed through a 41% (133 mm) increase of summer flow. Conversely, the larger Vitim River basin showed no significant changes in discharge after the fire. The parameters of the process-based hydrological model Hydrograph were estimated for pre-fire conditions. The results of runoff simulations conducted for the continuous pre-fire periods of 1966–2002 and 1970–2002 for the Vitimkan and Vitim river basins, respectively, on a daily time step, showed satisfactory agreement with the observed flow series of both basins. Significant underestimation of precipitation and its poor representativeness for mountainous watersheds was revealed as the main cause of observed and simulated flow discrepancies, especially for high flood events. The set of dynamic parameters was developed based on data analysis and post-fire landscape changes as derived from a literature review. The model was applied to investigate the processes in the soil column and their effect on runoff formation during the post-fire period. The new set of model parameters implied the intensification of soil thaw, reduction of infiltration rate and evapotranspiration, and increase of upper subsurface flow fraction in summer flood events following the fire. According to modelling results, the post-fire thaw depth exceeded the pre-fire thaw depth by 0.4–0.7 m. Total evapotranspiration reduced by 40% in summer months, while surface flow increased almost 2.5 times during maximum flood events.  相似文献   

4.
Hong Kong is surrounded by estuarine, coastal and oceanic waters. In this study, monthly averages over a 10 year time series of salinity, temperature, chlorophyll a (chl a), dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), silicate (SiO4) and orthophosphate (PO4) at three representative stations around Hong Kong were used to examine if excess nitrogen in estuarine influenced waters is due to P limitation. The monthly distribution clearly shows the dominant influence of the seasonal change in river discharge in the Pearl River estuary and adjacent coastal waters. In winter, the river discharge is small and more oceanic waters are dominant and as a result, salinity is high, and chlorophyll and nutrients are low. In summer, when the river discharge is high, salinity decreases and nutrients increase. DIN is very high, reaching 100 μM in the estuary. This indicates over enrichment of nitrogen relative to P and consequently there is an excess of N in coastal waters of Hong Kong. P remains low (∼1 μM) and can potentially limit both phytoplankton biomass and N utilization which was demonstrated in field incubation experiments. P limitation would result in excess N being left in the estuarine influenced waters south of Hong Kong. Phosphate concentration is lower in the Pearl River estuary than in many other eutrophied estuaries. Therefore, this relatively low PO4 concentration should be a significant factor limiting a further increase in the magnitude of algal biomass and in the degree of eutrophication in the Pearl River estuary. The export of the excess N offshore into the northern South China Sea may result in an increase in the size of the region that is P limited in summer.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Steep mountainous areas account for 70% of all river catchments in Japan. To predict river discharge for the mountainous catchments, many studies have applied distributed hydrological models based on a kinematic wave approximation with surface and subsurface flow components (DHM-KWSS). These models reproduce observed river discharge of catchments in Japan well; however, the applicability of a DHM-KWSS to catchments with different geographical and climatic conditions has not been sufficiently examined. This research applied a DHM-KWSS to two river basins that have different climatic conditions from basins in Japan to examine the transferability of the DHM-KWSS model structure. Our results show that the DHM-KWSS model structure explained flow regimes for a wet river basin as well as a large flood event in an arid basin; however, it was unable to explain long-term flow regimes for the arid basin case study.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

Important characteristics of an appropriate river basin model, intended to study the effect of climate change on basin response, are the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and the rainfall input. The effects of input and model resolution on extreme discharge of a large river basin are assessed to give some indication on appropriate resolutions. A simple stochastic rainfall model and a river basin model with uniform parameters and multiple rainfall input have been developed and applied to the River Meuse basin in northwestern Europe. The results show that the effect of model resolution on extreme river discharge is much greater than that of input resolution. The highest model resolution seems to be quite accurate in determining extreme discharge. Although the results should be interpreted with caution, they may give some indication of appropriate input and model resolutions for the determination of extreme discharge of a large river basin.  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

The application of remotely-sensed data for hydrological modeling of the Congo Basin is presented. Satellite-derived data, including TRMM precipitation, are used as inputs to drive the USGS Geospatial Streamflow Model (GeoSFM) to estimate daily river discharge over the basin from 1998 to 2012. Physically-based parameterization was augmented with a spatially-distributed calibration that enables GeoSFM to simulate hydrological processes such as the slowing effect of the Cuvette Centrale. The resulting simulated long-term mean of daily flows and the observed flow at the Kinshasa gauge were comparable (40 631 and 40 638 m3/s respectively), in the 7-year validation period (2004–2010), with no significant bias and a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.70. Modeled daily flows and aggregated monthly river outflows (compared to historical averages) for additional sites confirm the model reliability in capturing flow timing and seasonality across the basin, but sometimes fails to accurately predict flow magnitude. The results of this model can be useful in research and decision-making contexts and validate the application of satellite-based hydrological models driven for large, data-scarce river systems such as the Congo.  相似文献   

8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):754-772
Abstract

Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

The objective of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of raingauges for a river basin for flow simulation by using statistical analyses and hydrological modelling. First, a statistical method is used to identify the appropriate number of raingauges. Herein the effect of the number of raingauges on the cross-correlation coefficient between areally averaged rainfall and discharge is investigated. Second, a lumped HBV model is used to investigate the effect of the number of raingauges on hydrological modelling performance. The Qingjiang River basin with 26 raingauges in China is used for a case study. The results show that both cross-correlation coefficient and modelling performance increase hyperbolically, and level off after five raingauges (therefore identified to be the appropriate number of rain-gauges) for this basin. The geographical locations of raingauges which give the best and worst hydrological modelling performance are identified, which shows that there is a strong dependence on the local geographical and climatic patterns.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

A decadal-scale study to retrieve the spatio-temporal precipitation patterns of the Yangtze River basin, China, using the Tropical Rain Mapping Mission, Precipitation Radar (TRMM/PR) data is presented. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on monthly TRMM/PR data extracts several leading precipitation patterns, which are largely connected with physical implications at the basin scale. With the aid of gauge station data, the amplitudes of major principal components (PCs) were used to examine the generic relationships between precipitation variations and hydrological extremes (e.g. floods and droughts) during summer seasons over the past decade. The emergence of such major precipitation patterns clearly reveals the possible linkages with hydrological processes, and the oscillations in relation to the amplitude of major PCs are consistent with these observed hydrological extremes. Although the floods in some sections of the Yangtze River were, to some extent, tied to human activities, such as the removal of wetlands, the variations in major precipitation patterns are recognized as the primary driving force of the flow extremes associated with floods and droughts. The research findings indicate that long-distance hydro-meteorological signals of large-scale precipitation variations over such a large river basin can be successfully identified with the aid of EOF analysis. The retrieved precipitation patterns and their low-frequency jumps of amplitude in relation to PCs are valuable tools to help understand the association between the precipitation variations and the occurrence of hydrological extremes. Such a study can certainly aid in disaster mitigation and decision-making in water resource management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Sun, Z., Chang, N.-B., Huang, Q., and Opp, C., 2013. Precipitation patterns and associated hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China, using TRMM/PR data and EOF analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1315–1324.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

Control of summer river temperature is needed for maintaining water temperature standards to protect aquatic biota and wildlife habitats. Given the fact that instream discharge, among meteorological and hydrological factors, may be the only one that can be practically managed, is it feasible to moderate summer river temperature through reservoir and streamflow regulations? An analysis is conducted to quantify the effects of the magnitude of instream flow on summer river temperature with weather as a reference. Relationships between water temperature and river discharge or flow depth are developed using a simplified model and adopting the concept of equilibrium temperature and bulk surface heat exchange coefficient. The relationships are validated against continuous 5-year field measurements at the central Platte River, Nebraska, USA. It was found that the variation of daily maximum water temperature with flow was stronger than that of daily mean. A critical discharge was obtained, which divides dramatic drop and slow variation in river temperature values. The existence of the critical discharge makes it possible to reduce or minimize the occurrence of daily maximum water temperature exceeding a standard at a river reach by increasing discharge to an achievable level. This study advances understanding of impacts of instream flow on summer river temperature and provides information useful in proper planning and design of reservoir operations and streamflow management.  相似文献   

12.
Heyin Chen 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1739-1758
Abstract

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-based model is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation, the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologic simulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor in regulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increase river discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deserves attention in climate change adaptation planning.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz  相似文献   

13.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):531-542
Abstract

River corridor wetland restoration and freshwater diversion from the lower Mississippi River are being considered as two major options to reduce nitrogen input to the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is largely uncertain how much nitrogen can actually be retained from the overflowing waters by these wetland systems. This study quantified the nitrogen inflow and outflow for the largest distributary basin of the Mississippi River, the Atchafalaya River Swamp basin. The goal of the study was to seek answers to three critical questions: (a) Does the Atchafalaya River Swamp remove a significant amount of nitrogen from the overflowing water, or is it releasing more nitrogen into the Gulf? (b) How do the nitrogen removal or release rates fluctuate seasonally and annually? (c) What are the relationships between the nitrogen removal capacity and the hydrological conditions in the basin such as river stage and discharge? By utilizing the long-term (1978–2002) river discharge and water quality data, monthly and annual nitrogen fluxes were quantified, and their relationships with the basin hydrological conditions investigated. A total nitrogen—sum of the total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen (NO3+NO2)—mass input—output balance between the upstream (Simmesport) and downstream (Morgan City and Wax Lake Outlet) locations was established to examine the nitrogen removal potential for this, the largest freshwater swamp basin in North America. The results from this study showed that, over the past 25 years, the Atchafalaya River Swamp basin acted as a source for NO3+NO2 nitrogen, although the average annual output of NO3+NO2 nitrogen (174 584 Mg) was only slightly higher (2.3%) than the average annual input of NO3+NO2 nitrogen (170 721 Mg). The higher NO3+NO2 mass outflow occurred throughout summer and autumn, indicating an active role of biological processes on nitrogen in the overflowing waters of the Atchafalaya. However, this swamp basin has served as a major sink for organic nitrogen: the annual averages of TKN mass input and output were 200 323 and 145 917 Mg year?1, respectively, presenting a 27.2% removal rate by the basin. This large TKN reduction appeared high during springs and low during late summers, corresponding with the fluctuation of the hydrological conditions of the river.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Field observations and geodetic measurements suggest that in the Karakoram Mountains, glaciers are either stable or have expanded since 1990, in sharp contrast to glacier retreats that are prevalently observed in the Himalayas and adjoining high-altitude terrains of central Asia. Decreased discharge in the rivers originating from this region is cited as a supporting evidence for this somewhat anomalous phenomenon. Here, we show that river discharge during the melting season of the glaciers in the eastern and western Karakoram, respectively, exhibits rising and falling trends. We have implemented a statistical procedure involving non-parametric tests combined with a benchmark smoothing technique that has proven to be a powerful method for separating the stochastic component from the trend component in a time series. Precipitation patterns determined from ERA-40 and GPCP data indicate that summer-monsoonal precipitation has increased over the Karakoram Mountains in recent decades. Increasing flows in June and July in the eastern Karakoram are due to an increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The rising trend of August discharge is due to an increase in the loss of glacier storage at an approximate average rate of 0.186–0.217 mm d-1 year-1 during the period 1973–2010. Moreover, this rate is higher than the rate of increase in monsoonal snowfall during the months of August and September. Therefore, most plausibly, glacier mass balance in the eastern Karakoram is negative. In the western Karakoram, river flows show declining trends for all summer months for the period 1966–2010, corresponding to a rate of increase of glacier storage by approximately 0.552–0.644 mm d-1 year-1, which is also higher than the rate of increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The gain of the cryospheric mass in the western Karakoram is in the form of increased thickness of the glaciers and perennial snowpacks instead of areal expansion. This investigation shows two contrasting patterns of trends of river flows that signify both negative and positive mass balance of the Karakoram glaciers. Trends of river flows are spatially and temporally integrated responses of a watershed to changing climate and thereby are important signals of the conditions of the cryospheric component of a watershed where it is highly significant. However, they cannot unequivocally provide indications of the state and fate of the glaciers in the complex hydrometeorological setting of the Karakoram. Extreme caution and care must be exercised in interpreting trends of river discharge in conjunction with climatic data.  相似文献   

15.
ABSTRACT

Accurate assessment of stage–discharge relationships in open channel flows is important to the design and management of hydraulic structures and engineering. Flow junctions commonly occur at the confluence of natural rivers or streams. The effect of flow junctions on the stage–discharge relationship at mountain river confluences was found by measuring velocity fields and water levels in experimental models. The results show that the backwater and accumulation–separation at flow junctions affect the flow structures and patterns in the channel; also, flow confluences may induce complex flow characteristics of backwater and flow separation at river junctions, indicating potential submerged flooding disasters within the confluence zone. The impacts of flow junctions on the stage–discharge relationship are investigated for two physical confluence models built from river confluence prototype systems in southwest China. The results show that the presence of tributary river inflows tends to increase the water level of the main river. This is important for flood control, flood-risk evaluation and engineering (e.g. hydropower station construction) in mountain rivers. Finally, a comparative quantitative analysis based on flow motion equations is conducted to evaluate the stage–discharge relationship in both uniform and regular confluence systems. The results indicate that more accurate prediction can be made when taking into account the flow non-uniformity induced by flow separation, backwater and distorted bed in the junction region.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Abstract By use of a coupled ocean–atmosphere–land model, this study explores the changes of water availability, as measured by river discharge and soil moisture, that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the ?IS92a? scenario. In addition, it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods, the radiatively forced changes, which are very similar between the two sets of experiments, were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob’ increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller, with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage, the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

To assess the predictive significance of meteorological parameters for forecasting discharge from the Dokriani Glacier basin in the Himalayan region, discharge autocorrelation and correlations between discharge and meteorological factors were investigated on a monthly and a seasonal basis. Changes in correlations between discharge and meteorological variables, lagged by 0–3 days, were determined. Discharge autocorrelation was found to be very high for each individual summer month and for the melt season as a whole. This suggests that a substantial meltwater storage in the glacier, which results in a delayed response of runoff, and therefore discharge, from the highly glacierized basins is very much dependent on the previous day's discharge. A comparison of correlations between discharge and temperature, and discharge and precipitation shows that temperature has a better correlation with discharge during June and September, while precipitation has good correlation with discharge in July and August. Variations in the physical features of the glacier, weather conditions, and precipitation and its distribution with time over the basin account for changes in correlations. To forecast the runoff from the Dokriani Glacier basin, multiple linear regression equations were developed separately for each month and for the whole melt season. A better forecast was obtained using the seasonal regression equation. A comparison of correlations for the Dokriani Glacier with those for the Z'mutt Glacier basin, Switzerland, illustrates that, for both basins, the previous day's discharge (Qi-1) shows maximum autocorrelation throughout the melt period. Whereas a good correlation between discharge and temperature was observed for the Z'mutt Glacier basin for the whole melt period, for the Dokriani Glacier basin it was strong at the beginning and end of the ablation season. Runoff delaying behaviour in the Dokriani Glacier basin is found more prominent than in the Z'mutt Glacier basin early in the melt season. Water storage appears to be less significant in the Dokriani Glacier than in the Z'mutt Glacier towards the end of the ablation season. The strength of correlation between discharge and precipitation is higher for the Dokriani Glacier basin than for the Z'mutt Glacier basin. This is due to higher rainfall in the Dokriani Glacier basin. In general, for both glacier basins, maximum correlation is found between discharge and precipitation on the same day.  相似文献   

18.
夏季风期间长江流域的水汽输送状态及其年际变化   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了长江流域夏季风期间的水汽收支和循环,着重研究了不同月份与水汽收支的年际变化显著相关的大尺度水汽输送和环流异常.流域范围的西南夏季风水汽输送以6、7月最为强烈,经向输送在5～8月造成流域水汽辐合,9月造成辐散;纬向输送在5～7月造成流域水汽辐散,8、9月造成辐合.研究表明,在不同月份,流域的南北边界处的水汽输送在流域水汽收支的年际变化中起着不同的作用.这种变化与大气环流的异常密切相关.在夏季风相对较弱月份（5、8、9月）,流域水汽收支的年际变化极大地受到流域南边界南风水汽输入通道的影响,对应于水汽收入偏丰年,该3个月500 hPa高空在青藏高原东部都存在显著异常低压区,而且,8、9月在中南半岛及其以东洋面存在显著异常反气旋环流,与8月西太副高的向西向南异常伸展,以及9月副高的西伸较弱和南北范围较宽有关,这些异常环流均造成南边界的大量异常水汽输入.而在夏季风十分强盛的6、7月,流域北边界南风水汽输出极大增加,成为流域水汽收入年际变化的关键敏感通道,对应于水汽收入偏丰年,6月500 hPa高空主要受中纬度以黄海和东海为中心的异常低压系统和气旋性异常环流影响,与该区域副高偏南、偏弱有关,而7月则主要受中高纬以外兴安岭为中心的异常高压和反气旋性异常环流影响,应该是由于该区域大陆高压的频繁生成造成的,它们均造成流域北边界水汽输出的异常减少.  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT

Total suspended sediment (TSS) data for 1960–1970 and from recent investigations (1990–2000) are used to evaluate the variability in sediment yield of the Sanaga catchment (Cameroon) and the equivalent rates of erosion. At the annual and seasonal time scales, total suspended sediment concentrations for the Mbam sub-catchment are three to four times higher than for the Sanaga basin, reflecting the higher sensitivity of the former to erosion. Classical clockwise hysteresis loops are observed in both sub-catchments, despite a significant increase in human-induced catchment changes. At the multi-year time frame (over a 40-year period), it appears that the second half of the 1990s is marked by a downward trend in TSS. This shift is due to the control infrastructures (river impoundments and ponds) installed in certain parts of the whole catchment, combined with a drop in annual rainfall and river discharge.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

This article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961–1980 and 1981–2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz  相似文献   

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