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1.
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch  相似文献   

2.
Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.  相似文献   

4.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(2):254-268
ABSTRACT

Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.  相似文献   

5.
Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km2 watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Hydrological modelling of the Vistula and Odra river basins using SWAT   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
This paper presents a large-scale application of the SWAT model for water balance and natural streamflow simulation in the entire basins of the Vistula and the Odra, covering most of the territory of Poland. A tailored calibration approach was designed to achieve satisfactory goodness-of-fit across a range of catchment sizes. Model calibration and evaluation driven by high-resolution climate data showed overall good behaviour for 80 benchmark catchments divided into eight clusters, and spatial evaluation for 30 gauges showed that the designed regionalization scheme performed well (median KGE of 0.76). Basin-averaged estimates of blue and green water flow and green water storage estimated using the calibrated model were 185, 517 and 206 mm, respectively. This study provides a basis for future work, such as assessing climate change impacts on hydrology, assessing flow alterations, and water quality simulation. The model output is publicly available through an online research data archive (doi:10.4121/uuid:b8ab4f5f-f692-4c93-a910-2947aea28f42).
EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel  相似文献   

7.
Mediterranean lake–wetland systems are threatened by climate change and intensive human impacts. Individual lake responses to these threats are poorly known but urgently required to steer preservation strategies. The dramatic water-level fall (~8 m since 1987) of Lake Megali Prespa endangers this global biodiversity hotspot and the wider catchment’s water resources. Annual lake fluctuations are found to be strongly related to wet-season (Oct.–Apr.) precipitation variability, which is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The lake primarily adjusts to sustained inflow changes through amending surface evaporation. Cumulative water abstraction since 1951 (~19 × 106 m3/year: ~0.006% of lake volume) explains ~70% of the long-term decrease in surface evaporation; climate variability explains the remainder. Persistent low lake levels after 1995 are caused by water abstraction. Compared to 1952/53–1977/78, the period 1978/79–2003/04 experienced significant decreases in wet-season precipitation, snowfall and discharge; the number of very dry years increased.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten  相似文献   

8.
It is expected that climate warming will be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including droughts. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections for meteorological drought for four different time scales (1 month, and 3, 6 and 12 months) in the Beijiang River basin, South China, on the basis of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Observed changes in meteorological drought were analysed at 24 meteorological stations from 1969 to 2011. Future meteorological drought was projected based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as projected by the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical significance of the meteorological drought trends was checked with the Mann–Kendall method. The results show that drought has become more intense and more frequent in most parts of the study region during the past 43 years, mainly owing to a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, long-term dryness is expected to be more pronounced than short-term dryness. Validation of the model simulation indicates that RegCM4.0 provides a good simulation of the characteristic values of SPEIs. During the twenty first century, significant drying trends are projected for most parts of the study region, especially in the southern part of the basin. Furthermore, the drying trends for RCP8.5 (or for long time scales) are more pronounced than for RCP4.5 (or for short time scales). Compared to the baseline period 1971–2000, the frequency of drought for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) tends to increase (decrease) in 2021–2050 and decrease (increase) in 2051–2080. The results of this paper will be helpful for efficient water resources management in the Beijiang River basin under climate warming.  相似文献   

9.
Long Xuyen Quadrangle is one of the important agricultural areas of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam accounting for 25% of rice production. In recent years, the area faces drought and salinization problems, as part of climate change impact and sea level rise. These are the main causes that led to the crop water deficits for agricultural production. Therefore, this work was conducted to predict crop water requirement (CWR) based on consideration of other related meteorological factors and further redefine the crop planting calendar (CPC) for three main cropping seasons including winter–spring (WS), summer–autumn (SA) and autumn–spring (AS) using the Cropwat crop model based on the current climate conditions and future climate change scenarios. Meteorological data for the baseline period (2006–2016) and future corresponding to timescales 2020s, 2055s and 2090s of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to predict CWR and CPC for the study area. The results showed that WS and SA crops needed more irrigation water than AS crop and the highest irrigation water requirement of the WS and SA crops occurred on developmental stage, while the AW crop appeared on growth, developmental and late stage for the baseline and timescales of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Calculation results of the shift of CPC indicated that the CWR of the AW crop decreased lowest approximately 6.6–20.6% for timescales of RCP4.5 scenario and 20.6–25.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared with the baseline.  相似文献   

10.
Surface runoff is a major water resource component and its spatial and temporal variations significantly impact on regional socio-economic development. In this study, changes to surface runoff in Jiangsu Province, China, were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for the period 2011–2040, using input data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models and three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In general, annual mean precipitation under the five models and three scenarios showed a fluctuating upward trend, while annual mean temperatures were projected to increase by up to 1.34 °C, as compared with the reference period (1970–1999). Monthly mean runoff depths were generally predicted to increase, with the most significant increases occurring in December. Increasing runoff depths were highest under the RCP8.5 emission scenario and lowest under RCP4.5. The results of this study provide an important reference for policymakers planning for the future water resources in Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, we conducted a case study with the VIC model and it showed high consistency with gauges and provides a new reference for the studies of other plain regions.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT

The impact of climate change on hydrology and water salinity of a valuable coastal wetland (Anzali) in northern Iran is assessed using daily precipitation and temperature data from 19 models of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The daily data are transiently downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator to three climatic stations. The temperature is projected to increase by +1.6, +1.9 and +2.7°C and precipitation to decrease by 10.4%, 12.8% and 12.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The wetland hydrology and water salinity are assessed using the water balance approach and mixing equation, respectively. The upstream river flow modelled by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is projected to reduce by up to 18%, leading to reductions in wetland volume (154 × 106 m3), area (57.47 km2) and depth (2.77 m) by 34%, 21.1% and 20.2%, respectively, under climate change, while the mean annual total dissolved solids (1675 mg/L) would increase by 49%. The reduced volume and raised salinity may affect the wetland ecology.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias‐corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031–2040) and long term (2051–2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003–2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003–2012, is expected at medium term (?0.6%) and long term (?2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (?1.1% and ?6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of ?3.3% at 2031–2040 and ?8.1% at 2051–2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam‐reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.  相似文献   

13.
The response of the semi‐alluvial clay‐bed Watts Creek is assessed subject to climate change. Climate impacts are expected to have regional variability, and few studies have assessed the impacts of future climate in a small urban watershed. The 21‐km2 watershed located in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, is highly urbanized (68%) and agricultural (20%) with limited forest cover (12%). Continuous simulations were performed using the SWMHYMO lumped hydrologic modelling platform for the open water year, excluding spring freshet (April 1 to October 31). A shear stress exceedance and stream power erosion routine was added to the platform to calculate erosion potential. To account for uncertainty in the collected data, 9 different field datasets were used to calibrate the model, each leading to a distinct set of calibrated parameter values. The difference between the datasets lies in the choice of the rating curves and calibration period. The 2041–2080 precipitation outputs of the 4th version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) ran under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 at the MacDonald Cartier International Airport were downscaled using quantile matching and then used as input to the continuous hydrologic model. For each set of calibrated parameters, a cumulative effective work index based on the reach‐averaged shear stress was calculated for Watts Creek using both the historic (1967–2007) and projected future (2041–2080) flows, using a bed material critical shear stress for entrainment of 3.7 Pa. These results suggest an increase of 75% (respectively 139%) under RCP4.5 (respectively RCP8.5) in cumulative effective work index compared with historic conditions for the average measured bed strength. The work index increase is driven by an increased occurrence of above‐threshold events and, more importantly, by the increased frequency of large events. The predicted flow regime under climate change would significantly alter the erosion potential and stability of Watts Creek.  相似文献   

14.
Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions. In this paper, output from the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse the effects of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu rivers in the Shiyang River basin, an important arid region in northwest China. After SWAT model calibration and validation, streamflow in the Shiyang River Basin was simulated using the PRECIS climate model data for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high emission rate) and B2 (low emission rate) developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monthly streamflow and hydrological extremes were compared for present‐day years (1961–1990), the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The results show that mean monthly streamflow in Shiyang River Basin generally increased in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s between 0.7–6.1% at the Zamu gauging station and 0.1–4.8% at the Xiying gauging station. The monthly minimum streamflow increased persistently, but the maximum monthly streamflows increased in the 2020s and slightly decreased in the 2050s and 2080s. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Shiyang River Basin and other arid and semi‐arid regions in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz

ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann  相似文献   

16.
A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Upper Niger and the Inner Niger Delta is used to investigate the RCP 4.5 scenario for 41 CMIP5 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s. In percentage terms, the range of change in precipitation is around four times as large as for potential evapotranspiration, which increases for most GCMs over most sub-catchments. Almost equal numbers of sub-catchment–GCM combinations experience positive and negative precipitation change. River discharge changes are equally uncertain. Inter-GCM range in mean discharge exceeds that of precipitation by three times in percentage terms. Declining seasonal flooding within the Inner Delta is dominant; 78 and 68% of GCMs project declines in October and November for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The 10- and 90-percentile changes in mean annual peak inundation range from ?6136 km2 (?43%) to +987 km2 (+7%) for the 2050s and ?6176 km2 (?43%) to +1165 km2 (+8.2%) for the 2080s.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

This study investigated the impacts of changes in land cover and climate on runoff and sediment yield in a river basin in India. Land Change Modeler was used to derive the future land cover and its changes using the Sankey diagram approach. The future climatic parameters were derived from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The land cover and climate change impacts on runoff and sediment yield were estimated using SWAT model. The results show important changes in land cover and indicate that urban and agricultural areas strongly influence the runoff and sediment yield. Among the land cover and climate change impacts, climate has more predominant (70%–95%) impact. Runoff and sediment yield are likely to decrease in both RCP scenarios in the future period. The impacts of land cover changes are more prominent on sediment yield than runoff.  相似文献   

18.
ABSTRACT

A modelling study was undertaken to quantify effects that the climate likely to prevail in the 2050s might have on water quality in two contrasting UK rivers. In so doing, it pinpointed the extent to which time series of climate model output, for some variables derived following bias correction, are fit for purpose when used as a basis for projecting future water quality. Working at daily time step, the method involved linking regional climate model (HadRM3-PPE) projections, Future Flows Hydrology (rainfall–runoff modelling) and the QUESTOR river network water quality model. In the River Thames, the number of days when temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and phytoplankton exceeded undesirable values (>25°C, <6 mg L?1, >4 mg L?1 and >0.03 mg L?1, respectively) was estimated to increase by 4.1–26.7 days per year. The changes do not reflect impacts of any possible change in land use or land management. In the River Ure, smaller increases in occurrence of undesirable water quality are likely to occur in the future (by 1.0–11.5 days per year) and some scenarios suggested no change. Results from 11 scenarios of the hydroclimatic inputs revealed considerable uncertainty around the levels of change, which prompted analysis of the sensitivity of the QUESTOR model to simulations of current climate and hydrology. Hydrological model errors were deemed of less significance than those associated with the derivation and downscaling of driving climatic variables (rainfall, air temperature and solar radiation). Errors associated with incomplete understanding of river water quality interactions with the aquatic ecosystem were found likely to be more substantial than those associated with hydrology, but less than those related to climate model inputs. These errors are largely a manifestation of uncertainty concerning the extent to which phytoplankton biomass is controlled by invertebrate grazers, particularly in mid-summer; and the degree to which this varies from year to year. The quality of data from climate models for generating flows and defining driving variables at the extremes of their distributions has been highlighted as the major source of uncertainty in water quality model outputs.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR X. Fang  相似文献   

19.
The evaluation of climate change and its side effects on the hydrological processes of the basin can increasingly help in dealing with the challenges that water resource managers and planners face in future courses. These side effects are investigated using the simulation of hydrological processes with the help of physical rainfall‐runoff model. Hydrological models provide a framework for examining the relationship between climate and water resources. This research aims at the investigation of the effect of climate change on the runoff of Gharesou, which is one of the main branches of the “Karkheh” River in Iran during the periods 2040–2069. To achieve this, the distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a model that is sensitive to the changes in land, water, and climate – has been used with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gharesou Basin. For this reason, first, the continuous distributed model of rainfall‐runoff SWAT for the period 1971–2000 has been calibrated and validated. Next, with the aim of evaluating the impact of climate change and global warming on the basin hydrology for the period 2040–2069, HadCM3‐AR4 global climate model data under the A2 scenario – from the SRES scenario set‐haves been downscaled. Eventually, the downscaled climate data haves been introduced in the SWAT model, and the future runoff changes have been studied. The results showed that the temperature increases in most of the months, and the precipitation rate exhibits a change in the range of ±30%. Moreover, the produced runoff in this period changes from ?90 to 120% during different months.  相似文献   

20.
Despite the significant role of precipitation in the hydrological cycle, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the impacts of the temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on the performance of SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) models in large-sized river basins. In this study, both daily and hourly rainfall observations at 28 rainfall stations were used as inputs to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin. Study results have demonstrated that the SWAT model with hourly rainfall inputs performed better than the model with daily rainfall inputs in daily streamflow simulation, primarily due to its better capability of simulating peak flows during the flood season. The sub-daily SWAT model estimated that 58 % of streamflow was contributed by baseflow compared to 34 % estimated by the daily model. Using the future daily and 3-h precipitation projections under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario as inputs, the sub-daily SWAT model predicted a larger amount of monthly maximum daily flow during the wet years than the daily model. The differences between the daily and sub-daily SWAT model simulation results indicated that temporal rainfall resolution could have much impact on the simulation of hydrological process, streamflow, and consequently pollutant transport by SWAT models. There is an imperative need for more studies to examine the effects of temporal rainfall resolution on the simulation of hydrological and water pollutant transport processes by SWAT in river basins of different environmental conditions.  相似文献   

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