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1.
ABSTRACTTraditionally, hydrological models are only calibrated to reproduce streamflow regime without considering other hydrological state variables, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Limited studies have been performed on constraining the model parameters, despite the fact that the presence of a large number of parameters may provide large degree of freedom, resulting in equifinality and poor model performance. In this study, a multi-objective optimization approach is adopted, and both streamflow and soil moisture data are calibrated simultaneously for an experimental study basin in the Saskatchewan Prairies in western Canada. The results of this study show that the multi-objective calibration improves model fidelity compared to the single objective calibration. Moreover, the study demonstrates that single objective calibration performed against only streamflow can fairly mimic the streamflow hydrograph but does not yield realistic estimation of other fluxes such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture (especially in deeper soil layers). 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACT Calibration of hydrological models is challenging in high-latitude regions where hydrometric data are minimal. Process-based models are needed to predict future changes in water supply, yet often with high amounts of uncertainty, in part, from poor calibrations. We demonstrate the utility of stable isotopes (18O, 2H) as data employed for improving the amount and type of information available for model calibration using the isoWATFLOODTM model. We show that additional information added to calibration does not hurt model performance and can improve simulation of water volume. Isotope-enabled calibration improves long-term validation over traditional flow-only calibrated models and offers additional feedback on internal flowpaths and hydrological storages that can be useful for informing internal water distribution and model parameterization. The inclusion of isotope data in model calibration reduces the number of realistic parameter combinations, resulting in more constrained model parameter ranges and improved long-term simulation of large-scale water balance. 相似文献
3.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Abstract Current research suggests that strategies to control sediment and phosphorus loss from non-point sources should focus on different runoff components and their spatial and temporal variations within the river basin. This is a prerequisite for determining effective management measures for reducing diffuse source pollution. Therefore, non-point source models, especially in humid climatic regions, should consider variable hydrologically active source areas. These models should be able to consider runoff generation by saturated overland flow, as well as Hortonian overland flow. A combination of the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH and the erosion and P-transport model AGNPS was chosen for this study. The models were run in the WaSiM runoff generation mode (Green & Ampt/TOPMODEL or Richards equation approach) and the SCS curve number mode to assess the effect of these different runoff calculation procedures on the dissolved phosphorus yield. A small and a medium-sized river basin, of the area of 1.44 and 128.9 km2, respectively, in central Germany were selected for the investigation. The results show that the WaSiM–AGNPS coupling produces more accurate results than the SCS curve number method. For the spatial distribution, the more physically-based model approach computed a much more realistic distribution of water and phosphorus yield-producing areas. 相似文献
4.
AbstractIn physically-based land surface models, the parameters can all be prescribed a priori but calibration can be used to enhance the realism of the simulations in well instrumented domains. In such a case, the transferability of calibrated parameters under non-stationary conditions needs to be addressed, especially in the context of climate change. To this end, we used the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) in the Upper Durance watershed located in the French Alps, which experienced a significant increase in temperature over the last century. The CLSM is forced by a 50-year meteorological dataset of good quality. Four parameters of the CLSM (one related to snow processes and three to soil properties) are calibrated against discharge observations with a multi-objective algorithm. First, the robustness of the CLSM parameterizations is tested by the Differential Split Sample Test (DSST). The simulations show good performances over a wide range of retrospective climatic conditions, except when the parameters are calibrated over a period with a large contribution of snowmelt to annual mean discharge. Then, the use of a climate change scenario reveals that the parameterizations of soil moisture processes in the CLSM are responsible for an increasing dispersion among simulations when facing dry and warm conditions. However, the differences between the simulated changes of river discharge remain very small. This work shows that calibration conveys some uncertainties, but they are moderate in the studied case, and pertain to the most conceptual parameterizations of this physically-based model. 相似文献
5.
G. Kienitz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):539-540
Abstract There has been a trend in recent years towards the development and popularity of physically-based deterministic models. However, the application of such models is not without difficulties. This paper investigates the usefulness of a conceptual single-event model for simulating floods from catchments covering a wide variety of climatic and physiographic areas. The model has been calibrated on a group of catchments and the calibrated parameter values related to physical catchment indices. The resulting quantitative relationships are assessed with respect to their value for estimating the parameter values of the model when calibration is not possible. The results indicate that the technique is likely to provide flood estimations for medium sized catchments (5–150 km2) that are more reliable than several flood estimation methods currently in use in South Africa. 相似文献
6.
Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACT Discharge observations and reliable rainfall forecasts are essential for flood prediction but their availability and accuracy are often limited. However, even scarce data may still allow adequate flood forecasts to be made. Here, we explored how far using limited discharge calibration data and uncertain forcing data would affect the performance of a bucket-type hydrological model for simulating floods in a tropical basin. Three events above thresholds with a high and a low frequency of occurrence were used in calibration and 81 rainfall scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty were used as input to assess their effects on flood predictions. Relatively similar model performance was found when using calibrated parameters based on a few events above different thresholds. Flood predictions were sensitive to rainfall errors, but those related to volume had a larger impact. The results of this study indicate that a limited number of events can be useful for predicting floods given uncertain rainfall forecasts. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACTThe calibration of hydrological models is formulated as a blackbox optimization problem where the only information available is the objective function value. Distributed hydrological models are generally computationally intensive, and their calibration may require several hours or days which can be an issue for many operational contexts. Different optimization algorithms have been developed over the years and exhibit different strengths when applied to the calibration of computationally intensive hydrological models. This paper shows how the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) and the mesh adaptive direct search (MADS) algorithms can be combined to significantly reduce the computational time of calibrating distributed hydrological models while ensuring robustness and stability regarding the final objective function values. Five transitional features are described to adequately merge both algorithms. The hybrid approach is applied to the distributed and computationally intensive HYDROTEL model on three different river basins located in Québec (Canada). 相似文献
9.
AbstractA new methodology is proposed for the calibration of distributed hydrological models at the basin scale by constraining an internal model variable using satellite data of land surface temperature (LST). The model algorithm solves the system of energy and mass balances in terms of a representative equilibrium temperature that governs the fluxes of energy and mass over the basin domain. This equilibrium surface temperature, which is a critical model state variable, is compared to operational satellite LST, while calibrating soil hydraulic parameters and vegetation variables differently in each pixel, minimizing the errors. This procedure is compared to the traditional calibration using only discharge measurements. The distributed energy water balance model, Flash-flood Event-based Spatially-distributed rainfall–runoff Transformation – Energy Water Balance model (FEST-EWB), is used to test this approach. This methodology is applied to the Upper Yangtze River basin (China) using MODIS LST retrieved from satellite data in the framework of the NRSCC-ESA DRAGON-2 Programme. The calibration procedure based on LST seems to outperform the calibration based on discharge, with lower relative error and higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index on cumulated volume.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin 相似文献
10.
A. H. SCHUMANN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):519-528
Abstract Conceptual semi-distributed hydrological models are developed for a limited consideration of spatial heterogeneity of hydrological characteristics within a river basin. This heterogeneity can be described by area distribution functions of hydrological characteristics which can be estimated in a most effective way by a Geographical Information System (GIS). It is shown how the application of a GIS can support the development and the calibration of a conceptual hydrological model. GIS information is used to establish the criteria for sub-division of the river basin and for estimation of model structures (especially for further horizontal divisions of each basin into more homogeneous parts). That information is also used for estimation of basin characteristics and their differences between sub-basins as a support for parameter calibration by optimization. The methodology presented can be used for the development of a model structure on an objective basis and for model calibration which considers the physical explanation of model parameters. The proposed method was successfully applied to a river basin within the Mosel basin (Germany). 相似文献
11.
Testing the robustness of the physically-based ECOMAG model with respect to changing conditions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
AbstractThe robustness of the physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG with respect to changing (climatic or land-use) conditions was evaluated for two basins, considered within the modelling workshop held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, France, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second, Obyån Creek, Sweden, was exposed to drastic land cover change due to deforestation. Tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy the changing hydrological regime of each basin and to retain, in the process, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model was obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods, including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins. 相似文献
12.
AbstractThe robustness of the physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG with respect to changing (climatic or land-use) conditions was evaluated for two basins, considered within the modelling workshop held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, France, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second, Obyån Creek, Sweden, was exposed to drastic land cover change due to deforestation. Tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy the changing hydrological regime of each basin and to retain, in the process, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model was obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods, including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins. 相似文献
13.
Abstract One decade after the first publications on multi-objective calibration of hydrological models, we summarize the experience gained so far by underlining the key perspectives offered by such approaches to improve parameter identification. After reviewing the fundamentals of vector optimization theory and the algorithmic issues, we link the multi-criteria calibration approach with the concepts of uncertainty and equifinality. Specifically, the multi-criteria framework enables recognition and handling of errors and uncertainties, and detection of prominent behavioural solutions with acceptable trade-offs. Particularly in models of complex parameterization, a multi-objective approach becomes essential for improving the identifiability of parameters and augmenting the information contained in calibration by means of both multi-response measurements and empirical metrics (“soft” data), which account for the hydrological expertise. Based on the literature review, we also provide alternative techniques for dealing with conflicting and non-commeasurable criteria, and hybrid strategies to utilize the information gained towards identifying promising compromise solutions that ensure consistent and reliable calibrations. Citation Efstratiadis, A. & Koutsoyiannis, D. (2010) One decade of multi-objective calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 58–78. 相似文献
14.
ANNE COUDRAIN MICHEL LOUBET THOMAS CONDOM AMAL TALBI PIERRE RIBSTEIN BERNARD POUYAUD 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):293-306
Abstract In catchments characterized by spatially varying hydrological processes and responses, the optimal parameter values or regions of attraction in parameter space may differ with location-specific characteristics and dominating processes. This paper evaluates the value of semi-distributed calibration parameters for large-scale streamflow simulation using the spatially distributed LISFLOOD model. We employ the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) global optimization algorithm to infer the calibration parameters using daily discharge observations. The resulting posterior parameter distribution reflects the uncertainty about the model parameters and forms the basis for making probabilistic flow predictions. We assess the value of semi-distributing the calibration parameters by comparing three different calibration strategies. In the first calibration strategy uniform values over the entire area of interest are adopted for the unknown parameters, which are calibrated against discharge observations at the downstream outlet of the catchment. In the second calibration strategy the parameters are also uniformly distributed, but they are calibrated against observed discharges at the catchment outlet and at internal stations. In the third strategy a semi-distributed approach is adopted. Starting from upstream, parameters in each subcatchment are calibrated against the observed discharges at the outlet of the subcatchment. In order not to propagate upstream errors in the calibration process, observed discharges at upstream catchment outlets are used as inflow when calibrating downstream subcatchments. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the methodology for a part of the Morava catchment, covering an area of approximately 10 000 km2. The calibration results reveal that the additional value of the internal discharge stations is limited when applying a lumped parameter approach. Moving from a lumped to a semi-distributed parameter approach: (i) improves the accuracy of the flow predictions, especially in the upstream subcatchments; and (ii) results in a more correct representation of flow prediction uncertainty. The results show the clear need to distribute the calibration parameters, especially in large catchments characterized by spatially varying hydrological processes and responses. 相似文献
15.
Abstract The Hydrological Recursive Model (HRM), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was applied for local and regional simulation of hourly discharges in the transnational Alzette River basin (Luxembourg-France-Belgium). The model was calibrated for a range of various sub-basins with a view to analysing its ability to reproduce the variability of basin responses during flood generation. The regionalization of the model parameters was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series of calibration sub-basins after their spatial discretization in lithological contrasting isochronal zones. The runoff simulations of the model agreed well with the recorded runoff series. Significant correlations with some basin characteristics and, noticeably, the permeability of geological formations, could be found for two of the four free model parameters. The goodness of fit for runoff predictions using the derived regional parameter set was generally satisfactory, particularly for the statistical characteristics of streamflow. A more physically-based modelling approach, or at least an explicit treatment of quick surface runoff, is expected to give better results for high peak discharge. 相似文献
16.
Abstract A glacier submodel was successfully integrated into the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH to simulate the discharge of a heavily glaciated drainage basin. The glacier submodel comprises a distributed temperature index model including solar radiation to simulate the melt rate of glaciated areas. Meltwater and rainfall are transformed into glacier discharge by using a linear reservoir approach. The model was tested on a high-alpine sub-basin of the Rhone basin (central Switzerland) of which 48% is glaciated. Continuous discharge simulations were performed for the period 1990–1996 and compared with hourly discharge observations. The pronounced daily and annual fluctuations in discharge were simulated well. The obtained efficiency criterion, R2, exceeds 0.89 for all years. The good performance of the glacier submodel is also demonstrated by integrating it into the hydrological model PREVAH. 相似文献
17.
AbstractThe accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time. 相似文献
18.
Maurice PARDÉ 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):38-51
Abstract Hydrological modelling has faced the problem of ungauged basins for many years: how does one estimate hydrological characteristics for a river for which there are no data? Whatever the kind of model, it needs at least hydroclimatic input data and discharge data for calibration. However, the Yates model does not need any discharge data for calibration: it is a pre-calibrated model from a vegetation—climate classification map. In the specific context of West and Central Africa, where data are often of poor quality and very scarce, it is interesting to compare the performance of such a model with those of calibrated models, and with observed data. For this study, a platform including different semi-global rainfall—runoff models which allow the estimation of monthly runoff at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° was used. The performance of the Yates model is very close to those of calibrated models, so that one can say that this simple model, based simply on a vegetation—climate classification, can be a very useful prediction tool in regions of scarce and unreliable data, such as those of interest to the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) initiative on prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Therefore, this model was applied to a period covering the last 30 years, and to a data set covering the first decades of the 21st century, from a climatic scenario of doubling the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The results show that, in West Africa, where drought conditions have now prevailed for 35 years, water resources should still be decreasing in the future, following the general decreasing trend of rainfall projected by the climatic scenarios. 相似文献
19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):513-525
Abstract The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was calibrated and evaluated for estimation of runoff and sediment yield in the data-scarce conditions of the Indian Himalaya. The inputs derived from remote sensing and geographic information system technologies were combined in the WEPP modelling system to simulate surface runoff and sediment yield from the hilly Kaneli watershed. The model parameters were calibrated using measured data on runoff volumes and sediment yield. The calibrated model was validated by producing the monthly runoff and sediment yield simulations and comparing them with data that were not used in calibration. The model was also used to make surface runoff and sediment yield simulations for each of the individual watershed elements, comprising 18 hillslopes and seven channels, and the detailed monthly results for each are presented. Although, no field data on hillslope runoff and sediment yield are currently available for the validation of distributed results produced by the model, the present investigation has demonstrated clearly the applicability of the WEPP model in predicting hydrological variables in a data-scarce situation. 相似文献
20.
A. G. Yilmaz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1265-1279
Abstract Among the processes most affected by global warming are the hydrological cycle and water resources. Regions where the majority of runoff consists of snowmelt are very sensitive to climate change. It is significant to express the relationship between climate change and snow hydrology and it is imperative to perform climate change impact studies on snow hydrology at global and regional scales. Climate change impacts on the mountainous Upper Euphrates Basin were investigated in this paper. First, historical data trend analysis of significant hydro-meteorological data is presented. Available future climate data are then explained, and, finally, future climate data are used in hydrological models, which are calibrated and validated using historical hydro-meteorological data, and future streamflow is projected for the period 2070–2100. The hydrological model outcomes indicate substantial runoff decreases in summer and spring season runoff, which will have significant consequences on water sectors in the Euphrates Basin. Citation Yilmaz, A.G. & Imteaz, M.A. (2011) Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1265–1279. 相似文献