共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
Mario Lefebvre 《水文研究》2002,16(7):1373-1381
Let X(t) be the flow of a certain river at time t. A geometric Brownian motion process is used as a model for X(t) and is found to give very good forecasts of future flows. The forecasted values generated by this one‐dimensional model are compared with those provided by a deterministic model that requires the evaluation of 18 entries. Based on two important criteria, the stochastic model is superior, on average, to the deterministic model for forecasts up to 4 days ahead. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
R. Kaiser 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-2):125-135
Abstract Bayly (1993) introduced and investigated the equation (? t + v·▽-η ▽2)S = RS as a scalar analogue of the magnetic induction equation. Here, S(r, t) is a scalar function and the flow field v(r, t) and “stretching” function R(r, t) are given independently. This equation is much easier to handle than the corresponding vector equation and, although not of much relevance to the (vector) kinematic dynamo problem, it helps to study some features of the fast dynamo problem. In this note the scalar equation is considered for linear flow and a harmonic potential as stretching function. The steady equation separates into one-dimensional equations, which can be completely solved and therefore allow one to monitor the behaviour of the spectrum in the limit of vanishing diffusivity. For more general homogeneous flows a scaling argument is given which ensures fast dynamo action for certain powers of the harmonic potential. Our results stress the singular behaviour of eigenfunctions in the limit of vanishing diffusivity and the importance of stagnation points in the flow for fast dynamo action. 相似文献
3.
The quantification of debris‐flow hazard requires estimates of debris‐flow frequency and magnitude. Several methods have been proposed to determine the probable volume of future debris flows from a given basin, but most have neglected to account for debris recharge rates over time, which may lead to underestimation of debris‐flow volumes in basins with rare debris flows. This paper deals with the determination of debris recharge rates in debris‐flow channels based on knowledge of debris storage and the elapsed time since the last debris flow. Data are obtained from coastal British Columbia and a relation is obtained across a sample of basins with similar terrain and climatic conditions. For Rennell Sound on the west coast of the Queen Charlotte Islands, the power‐law relation for area‐normalized recharge rate, Rt, versus elapsed time, te was Rt = 0·23te?0·58 with an explained variance of 75 per cent. A difference in recharge rates may exist between creeks in logged and unlogged forested terrain. The power function for undisturbed terrain was Rt = 0·20te?0·49, while the function for logged areas was Rt = 0·30te?0·77. This result suggests that for the same elapsed time since the last debris flow, clearcut gullies tend to recharge at a slower rate than creeks in old growth forest. This finding requires verification, particularly for longer elapsed times since debris flow, but would have important implications for forest resource management in steep coastal terrain. This study demonstrates that commonly used encounter probability equations are inappropriate for recharge‐limited debris flow channels. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Raymond Hide 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-3):69-79
Abstract ‘‘Helicity'’ density H ≡ u · ω and other pseudo-scalar fields such as P ≡ ω · Vlnρ (which is related to Ertel potential vorticity) are useful quantities in theoretical fluid dynamics and magneto-fluid dynamics. Here u denotes the Eulerian flow velocity relative to the chosen frame of reference, ω ≡ V × u is the corresponding relative vorticity and ρ the mass density of the fluid. A general expression is readily obtained for ?H/?t (where t denotes time) in terms of P and the ‘‘superhelicity'’ density S ≡ ω · V × ω which, in fluids of low viscosity, has its highest values in boundary layers. One need for such a relationship became evident during an attempt to interpret the findings of laboratory experiments on thermal convection in rotating fluids in containers of various geometrical shapes and topological characteristics. In electrodynamics an analogous expression can be found relating the time rate of change of ‘‘magnetic helicity'’ A · B to ‘‘magnetic superhelicity'’ B · ? × B (where B · ? × A is the magnetic field) and a scalar quantity analogous to P which involves non-Ohmic contributions to the relationship between the electric current density and the electric field. 相似文献
5.
Nuzhat Q. Qazi L. Adrian Bruijnzeel Shive Prakash Rai Chandra P. Ghimire 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(7):1114-1130
Baseflows have declined for decades in the Lesser Himalaya but the causes are still debated. This paper compares variations in streamflow response over three years for two similar headwater catchments in northwest India with largely undisturbed (Arnigad) and highly degraded (Bansigad) oak forest. Hydrograph analysis suggested no catchment leakage, thereby allowing meaningful comparisons. The mean annual runoff coefficient for Arnigad was 54% (range 44–61%) against 62% (53–69%) at Bansigad. Despite greater total runoff Qt (by 250 mm year–1), baseflow at Bansigad ceased by March, but was perennial at Arnigad (making up 90% of Qt vs. 51% at Bansigad). Arnigad storm flows, Qs, were modest (8–11% of Qt) and occurred mostly during monsoons (78–98%), while Qs at Bansigad was 49% of Qt and occurred also during post-monsoon seasons. Our results underscore the importance of maintaining soil water retention capacity after forest removal to maintain baseflow levels.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten 相似文献
6.
Yolanda Cantón Luis Villagarcía María José Moro Penelope Serrano-Ortíz Ana Were Francisco Javier Alcalá 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):737-753
Abstract This paper analyses the temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a representative recharge area of the Sierra de Gádor (Almeria, southeastern Spain) in two hydrological years. Two approaches are used to estimate daily potential recharge (PR): Approach 1 based on deriving PR from the water balance as the difference between measurements of rainfall (P) and actual evapotranspiration (E) obtained by eddy covariance; and Approach 2 with PR obtained from the dynamic pattern of the soil moisture (θ) recorded at two depths in the site's thin soil (average 0.35 m thickess). For the hydrological year 2003/04, which was slightly drier than the 30-year average, E accounted for 64% of rainfall and occurred mainly in late spring and early summer. The PR estimated by Approach 1 was 181 ± 18 mm year-1 (36% of rainfall), suggesting an effective groundwater recharge in the study area. In the unusually dry hydrological year 2004/05, E was about 215 mm year-1, close to the annual rainfall input, and allowing very little (8 ± 12 mm year-1) PR according to Approach 1. Estimation of PR based on Approach 2 resulted in PR rates lower than those found by Approach 1, because Approach 2 does not take into account the recharge that occurs through preferential flow pathways (cracks, joints and fissures) which were not monitored with the θ probes. Moreover, using Approach 2, the PR estimates differed widely depending on the time scale considered: with daily mean θ data, PR estimation was lower, especially in late spring, while θ data at 30 min resolution yielded a more reliable prediction of the fraction of total PR resulting from the downward movement of soil water by gravity. Citation Cantón, Y., Villagarcía, L., Moro, M. J., Serrano-Ortíz, P., Were, A., Alcalá, F. J., Kowalski, A. S., Solé-Benet, A., Lázaro, R. & Domingo, F. (2010) Temporal dynamics of soil water balance components in a karst range in southeastern Spain: estimation of potential recharge. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 737–753. 相似文献
7.
Features and physical process of the dynamic evolution pattern of ground resistivity precursor front
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8.
AbstractPreferential flow pathways in a fractured aquifer may yield abrupt reductions of the water velocity in a well. We propose a new device for measuring low (5–13 cm d-1) velocities in wells originating from fractures at different depths. The presented flowmeter has been applied in a well in the Bari (southern Italy) fractured aquifer. In the same well, the horizontal flowmeter velocity (9.6 cm d-1) at 0.5 m depth was compared with velocity (8 cm d-1) derived from a field tracer test, providing a value 16.5% higher. Moreover, the flowmeter measurements at 1.5 m depth gave a horizontal velocity of 7.2 cm d-1, which is 11% less than water flow velocity estimated from the field test. The new flowmeter implements the tracer point-dilution method in a plastic (PVC) pipe by causing the water flow to pass through an artificial filter. Laboratory calibration tests have confirmed the good performance of the proposed flowmeter technique, even for water flow up to 300 cm d-1. The flowmeter was sensitive to 0.1 cm d-1, with a detection limit of 1.5 cm d-1, i.e. half the measurable flow velocity of existing flowmeters in wells.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi 相似文献
9.
Abstract Laboratory flume experiments were undertaken to measure the vertical profiles of mean flow velocity for three different flow discharges and four different stem densities of Hydrilla verticillata. The data were used to calculate three parameters, namely Manning's roughness coefficient, the Reynolds number and the Froude number. In addition, empirical equations were obtained for the vertical distribution of measured flow velocity within the transitional zone and above the plant canopy. The results show that: (a) the vertical distribution of measured flow velocity exhibits three zone profiles; (b) Manning's roughness coefficient decreases with increasing depth-averaged flow velocity; (c) the relationship between Manning's roughness coefficient and the depth-averaged flow velocity is within the smooth left inverse curve; (d) Manning's roughness coefficient significantly changes with increasing density of Hydrilla; (e) the Froude number is independent of the density of Hydrilla; and (f) both the Reynolds number and the Froude number increase with increasing depth-averaged flow velocity. Citation Shi, J.Z., Li, Y.-H., Hughes, J.M.R., and Zhao, M., 2013. Hydrological characteristics of vegetated river flows: a laboratory flume study. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1047–1058. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
10.
Abstract A simple mean-field model of a nonlinear stellar dynamo is considered, in which dynamo action is supposed to occur in a spherical shell, and where the only nonlinearity retained is the influence of the Lorentz forces on the zonal flow field. The equations are simplified by truncating in the radial direction, while full latitudinal dependence is retained. The resulting nonlinear p.d.e.'s in latitude and time are solved numerically, and it is found that while regular dynamo wave type solutions are stable when the dynamo number D is sufficiently close to its critical value, there is a wide variety of stable solutions at larger values of D. Furthermore, two different types of dynamo can coexist at the same parameter values. Implications for fields in late-type stars are discussed. 相似文献
11.
We estimated the network-averaged mantle attenuation t*(total) of 0.5 s beneath the North Korea test site (NKTS) by use of P-wave spectra and normalized spectral stacks from the 25 May 2009 declared nuclear test (mb 4.5; IDC). This value was checked using P-waves from seven deep (580–600 km) earthquakes (4.8 < M w < 5.5) in the Jilin-Heilongjiang, China region that borders with Russia and North Korea. These earthquakes are 200–300 km from the NKTS, within 200 km of the Global Seismic Network seismic station in Mudanjiang, China (MDJ) and the International Monitoring System primary arrays at Ussuriysk, Russia (USRK) and Wonju, Republic of Korea (KSRS). With the deep earthquakes, we split the t*(total) ray path into two segments: a t*(u), that represents the attenuation of the up-going ray from the deep hypocenters to the local-regional receivers, and t*(d), that represents the attenuation along the down-going ray to teleseismic receivers. The sum of t*(u) and t*(d) should be equal to t*(total), because they both share coincident ray paths. We estimated the upper-mantle attenuation t*(u) of 0.1 s at stations MDJ, USRK, and KSRS from individual and stacks of normalized P-wave spectra. We then estimated the average lower-mantle attenuation t*(d) of 0.4 s using stacked teleseismic P-wave spectra. We finally estimated a network average t*(total) of 0.5 s from the stacked teleseismic P-wave spectra from the 2009 nuclear test, which confirms the equality with the sum of t*(u) and t*(d). We included constraints on seismic moment, depth, and radiation pattern by using results from a moment tensor analysis and corner frequencies from modeling of P-wave spectra recorded at local distances. We also avoided finite-faulting effects by excluding earthquakes with complex source time functions. We assumed ω2 source models for earthquakes and explosions. The mantle attenuation beneath the NKTS is clearly different when compared with the network-averaged t* of 0.75 s for the western US and is similar to values of approximately 0.5 s for the Semipalatinsk test site within the 0.5–2 Hz range. 相似文献
12.
ABSTRACTThis study assesses the sensitivity to model fitting methods and segment selection of the estimated parameters A and B of the model dQ/dt = ?AQB for individual events. We investigated about 750 recession events observed at 25 US Geological Survey gauges in the Iowa and Cedar river basins in the United States, with drainage areas ranging from 7 to 17 000 km2. The parameters of these recession events were estimated using three commonly adopted methods and recession segments with different extraction criteria. The results showed that the variations of the parameter estimates for the same recession event were comparable to the variations of parameters between different events due to using different model fitting methods and recession segments. This raises cautions for comparative analysis of individual recessions. The result also implies that the nonlinear direct fitting method is the most robust among the three model fitting methods compared.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Okruszko 相似文献
13.
AbstractThe aim of this study was to evaluate canopy water storage (CWS) of the co-dominant shrubs in the revegetation of sand dunes in northwest China. Our results indicated that CWS differed among the xerophyte taxa studied. The average CWS increased exponentially with decreased raindrop size. The time course of CWS in terms of leaf area indicated that Artemisia ordosica attains its peak value of 0.48 mm within 170 min. The corresponding values for Caragana korshinskii and Hedysarum scoparium were 0.38 mm and 178 min, and 0.32 mm and 161 min, respectively, implying that A. ordosica had a higher CWS than C. korshinskii and H. scoparium. Dry biomass was a desirable predictor for estimation of CWS for C. korshinskii and H. scoparium, and shrub volume for A. ordosica. Our results show that the dependence of CWS on raindrop size varied in accordance with the shrub canopy structure.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
14.
AbstractTravel time and time of concentration Tc are important time parameters in hydrological designs. Although Tc is the time for the runoff to travel to the outlet from the most remote part of the catchment, most researchers have used an indirect method such as hydrograph analysis to estimate Tc. A quasi two-dimensional diffusion wave model with particle tracking for overland flow was developed to determine the travel time, and validated for runoff discharges, velocities, and depths. Travel times for 85%, 95% and 100% of particles arrival at the outlet of impervious surfaces (i.e. Tt85, Tt95, and Tt100) were determined for 530 model runs. The correlations between these travel times and Tc estimated from hydrograph analysis showed a significant agreement between Tc and Tt85. All the travel times showed nonlinear relationships with the input variables (plot length, slope, roughness coefficient, and effective rainfall intensity) but showed linear relationships with each other.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi 相似文献
15.
Abstract A cluster point process model is considered for the analysis of fine-scale rainfall time series. The model is based on three Poisson processes. The first is a Poisson process of storm origins, where each storm has a random (exponential) lifetime. The second is a Poisson process of cell origins that occur during the storm lifetime, terminating when the storm finishes. Each cell has a random lifetime that follows an exponential distribution (or terminates when the storm terminates, whichever occurs first). During cell lifetimes, a third Poisson process of instantaneous pulses occurs. The model is essentially an extension of the well-known Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model, with the rectangular profiles replaced with a Poisson process of instantaneous pulse depths to ensure more realistic rainfall profiles for fine-scale series. Model equations, derived in Cowpertwait et al. (2007), are used to fit different sets of properties to a 60 year record of 5-min data taken from Kelburn, New Zealand. As in the previous work, two superposed processes are used to account for two main and distinct precipitation types (convective and stratiform). By treating the within-cell pulses as dependent random variables, it is found, by simulation, that improved fits to extreme values and the proportion of dry intervals are obtained. Citation Cowpertwait, P. S. P., Xie, G., Isham, V., Onof, C. & Walsh, D. C. I. (2011) A fine-scale point process model of rainfall with dependent pulse depths within cells. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1110–1117. 相似文献
16.
Jae Min Hyun 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(2):89-98
Abstract Flow details inside the buoyant boundary layer in the heat-up process of a contained, stably stratified, fluid are presented. Numerical solutions were obtained for the heatup problem in a cylinder considered by Sakurai and Matsuda (1972). By plotting the scaled vertical velocity W versus the scaled temperature θ as functions of the normal distance from the sidewall, the precise shape of the buoyant layer spiral is constructed. The analogy between this spiral and the Ekman spiral in rotating fluids is apparent. As the Rayleigh number Ra increases, the magnitude of the scaled vertical velocity increases substantially, but the scaled temperature does not vary appreciably. The buoyant layer thickness is determined by measuring the zero-crossing normal distance for the vertical velocity. The buoyant layer suction increases significantly as Ra increases. The effects of vertical level and of time on the qualitative behavior of buoyant layer flows are found to be small. The buoyant layer flows decay over the heat-up time scale t n ; t h characterizes the time span over which the overall adjustment process in the inviscid interior region is accomplished. This work clarifies that the analogy between heat-up and spin-up, which has been known to exist in the main body of inviscid fluid, applies equally well to the boundary layer regions. 相似文献
17.
Abstract During recent decades, intensive research has focused on techniques capable of generating rainfall time series at a fine time scale that are (fully or partially) consistent with a given series at a coarser time scale. Here we theoretically investigate the consequences on the ensemble statistical behaviour caused by the structure of a simple and widely-used approach of stochastic downscaling for rainfall time series, the discrete Multiplicative Random Cascade. We show that synthetic rainfall time series generated by these cascade models correspond to a stochastic process which is non-stationary, because its temporal autocorrelation structure depends on the position in time in an undesirable manner. Then, we propose and theoretically analyse an alternative downscaling approach based on the Hurst-Kolmogorov process, which is equally simple but is stationary. Finally, we provide Monte Carlo experiments which validate our theoretical results. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Lombardo, F., Volpi, E., and Koutsoyiannis, D., 2012. Rainfall downscaling in time: theoretical and empirical comparison between multifractal and Hurst-Kolmogorov discrete random cascades. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1052–1066. 相似文献
18.
Arantza Ugalde 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):771-782
This study analyzes the S-wave envelope broadening characteristics of 290 earthquakes recorded by 14 stations of the Spanish National Seismograph Network in the Canary Islands region. The S-wave peak delay time (t p ) and envelope duration (t q ) parameters are evaluated phenomenologically to infer the strength of velocity inhomogeneities of the medium along each seismic ray path. Crustal (0?≤?h?≤?18 km) and upper mantle (18?<?h?≤?80 km) events are analyzed separately. Results in the frequency range 1 to 12 Hz for hypocentral distances from 30 to 600 km show that both t p and t q increase according to a power of hypocentral distance and they are independent of frequency. The spatial distribution of the peak delay time reveals weak strength of heterogeneity in most of the region at shallow depths. Relatively strong inhomogeneous zones are generated under the island of Tenerife and Gran Canaria at depths of 11–22 km. 相似文献
19.
AbstractThis paper aims at revisiting the use of non-dimensional representations for catchment change and model robustness analysis. As well as being helpful for catchment classification according to hydroclimatic conditions, the Turc-Budyko representation enables visualization of temporal changes in these conditions and/or modification of the hydrological behaviour of the catchment. This brings a new perspective to hydrological analysis, different from the classical time series plots, which helps when interpreting catchment functioning with respect to hydroclimatic constraints. These tools do not require statistical analyses of observed series and are therefore very simple to implement. Four case studies are considered here to illustrate the use of the Q/P = f(P/Ep) graph. When combined with the inter-annual Turc-Mezentsev formula, this visual framework enables anticipation of potential difficulties for models based on the same hypotheses, solely using the analysis of observed data. 相似文献
20.
Coastal wetlands are characterized by strong, dynamic interactions between surface water and groundwater. This paper presents a coupled model that simulates interacting surface water and groundwater flow and solute transport processes in these wetlands. The coupled model is based on two existing (sub) models for surface water and groundwater, respectively: ELCIRC (a three‐dimensional (3‐D) finite‐volume/finite‐difference model for simulating shallow water flow and solute transport in rivers, estuaries and coastal seas) and SUTRA (a 3‐D finite‐element/finite‐difference model for simulating variably saturated, variable‐density fluid flow and solute transport in porous media). Both submodels, using compatible unstructured meshes, are coupled spatially at the common interface between the surface water and groundwater bodies. The surface water level and solute concentrations computed by the ELCIRC model are used to determine the boundary conditions of the SUTRA‐based groundwater model at the interface. In turn, the groundwater model provides water and solute fluxes as inputs for the continuity equations of surface water flow and solute transport to account for the mass exchange across the interface. Additionally, flux from the seepage face was routed instantaneously to the nearest surface water cell according to the local sediment surface slope. With an external coupling approach, these two submodels run in parallel using time steps of different sizes. The time step (Δtg) for the groundwater model is set to be larger than that (Δts) used by the surface water model for computational efficiency: Δtg = M × Δts where M is an integer greater than 1. Data exchange takes place between the two submodels through a common database at synchronized times (e.g. end of each Δtg). The coupled model was validated against two previously reported experiments on surface water and groundwater interactions in coastal lagoons. The results suggest that the model represents well the interacting surface water and groundwater flow and solute transport processes in the lagoons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献