首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Abstract

The Blaney-Criddle (BC) temperature-based equation is used in areas where the complete weather data to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET0) by the Penman-Monteith FAO-56 (PMF-56) standard model is complex. In this study, the BC equation was first tested and calibrated against the ET0 values computed by the PMF-56 method using data from 17 weather stations in arid regions of Iran. Then, geographical information systems (GIS)-based spatially-distributed maps of ET0 were prepared by means of geographic/topographic factors derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) for all months, separately. The results indicate that the original BC equation overestimated PMF-56 ET0 by 4% at the study sites. The BC equation produced closer ET0 estimates to the PMF-56 method after it was calibrated. The error rate of <3% for the spatial modelling approach suggests that the developed ET0 maps are reliable.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., and Shifteh Some'e, B., 2013. Spatial modelling of reference evapotranspiration using adjusted Blaney-Criddle equation in an arid environment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 408–420.  相似文献   

2.
Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0), as a key factor in irrigation programming, has an important role in water resources management. Many parameters affect ET0 and their variations can change its values. In this paper, the effect of temporal variation of meteorological variables including wind speed, temperature, solar radiation and saturation vapor pressure deficit on temporal variations of ET0 was analyzed. Trend analysis of ET0 and its more effective meteorological parameters was accomplished in 30 synoptic stations which are located in Iran using Spearman’s Rho test. The multiple linear regressions were also used to determine the relationship between ET0 trend and the trend of its more effective parameters. Increasing and decreasing trends in ET0 were obtained at annual and seasonal scales. Many studied stations which had decreasing trend in the annual and seasonal periods have been located in the arid climates while all stations which have been located in humid and very-humid climates, had an increasing trend in annual and seasonal periods. The trend results in studied variables showed that annual and seasonal values of wind speed, temperature and saturation vapor pressure deficit decrease however the values of solar radiation increases in most studied stations. Multiple linear regressions results demonstrated that ET0 trend can be calculated by the trend of two more effective variables including wind speed and saturation vapor pressure deficit.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

To explore the spatial and temporal variations of the reference evapotranspiration (ETref) is helpful to understand the response of hydrological processes to climate changes. In this study, ETref was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method (P-M method) using air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours at 89 meteorological stations during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The spatial distribution and temporal variations of ETref were explored by means of the kriging method, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and the linear regression model, and the causes for the variations discussed. The contribution of main meteorological variables to the variations of ETref was explored. From the results we found that: (1) the spatial distributions of ETref display seasonal variation, with similar spatial patterns in spring, summer and autumn; (2) temporal trends for ETref showed large variation in the upper, middle and lower regions of the basin, most of the significant trends (P?=?0.05) were detected in the middle and lower regions, and, in particular, the upward and downward trends were mainly detected in the middle region and lower region of the basin, respectively; and (3) sensitivity analysis identified the most sensitive variable for ETref as relative humidity, followed by air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed at the basin scale.

Citation Yang, Zhifeng, Liu, Qiang & Cui, Baoshan (2011) Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 1015–1026.  相似文献   

4.
Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle, which integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Research on spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) enables understanding of climate change and its effects on hydrological processes and water resources. In this study, ETo was estimated by the FAO‐56 Penman–Monteith method in the Jing River Basin in China, based on daily data from 37 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. ETo trends were detected by the Mann–Kendall test in annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales. Sensitivity coefficients were used to examine the contribution of important meteorological variables to ETo. The influence of agricultural activities, especially irrigation on ETo was also analyzed. We found that ETo showed a decreasing trend in most of the basin in all seasons, except for autumn, which showed an increasing trend. Mean maximum temperature was generally the most sensitive parameter for ETo, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, mean minimum temperature, and wind speed. Wind speed was the most dominant factor for the declining trend in ETo. The more significant decrease in ETo for agricultural and irrigation stations was mainly because of the more significant decrease in wind speed and sunshine hours, a mitigation in climate warming, and more significant increase in relative humidity compared with natural stations and non‐irrigation stations. Changes in ETo and the sensitivity coefficient of meteorological variables in relation to ETo were also affected by topography. Better understanding of ETo response to climate change will enable efficient use of agricultural production and water resources, which could improve the ecological environment in Jing River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):918-928
Abstract

This study investigates the accuracy of support vector machines (SVM), which are regression procedures, in modelling reference evapotranspiration (ET0). The daily meteorological data, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from three stations, Windsor, Oakville and Santa Rosa, in central California, USA, are used as inputs to the support vector machines to reproduce ET0 obtained using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation. A comparison is made between the estimates provided by the SVM and those of the following empirical models: the California Irrigation Management System (CIMIS) Penman, Hargreaves, Ritchie and Turc methods. The SVM results were also compared with an artificial neural networks method. Root mean-squared errors, mean-absolute errors, and determination coefficient statistics are used as comparing criteria for the evaluation of the models' performances. The comparison results reveal that the support vector machines could be employed successfully in modelling the ET0 process.  相似文献   

6.
The accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for assessing water availability and requirements of regional-scale terrestrial ecosystems, and for understanding the hydrological cycle in alpine ecosystems. In this study, two large-scale weighing lysimeters were employed to estimate the magnitude and dynamics of actual evapotranspiration in a humid alpine Kobresia meadow from January 2018 to December 2019 on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The results showed that daily ETa averaged 2.24 ± 0.10 mm day −1 throughout the study period, with values of 3.89 ± 0.14 and 0.81 ± 0.06 mm day−1 during the growing season and non-growing season, respectively. The cumulative ETa during the study period was 937.39 mm, exceeding precipitation (684.20 mm) received at the site during the same period by 37%, suggesting that almost all precipitation in the lysimeters was returned to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. Furthermore, the cumulative ETa (805.04 mm) was almost equal to the maximum potential evapotranspiration estimated by the FAO-56 reference evapotranspiration (ET0) (801.94 mm) during the growing season, but the cumulative ETa (132.25 mm) was 113.72% less than the minimum equilibrium ETeq) (282.86 mm) during the non-growing season due to the limited surface moisture in frozen soil. The crop coefficient (Kc) also showed a distinct seasonal pattern, with a monthly average of 1.01 during the growing season. Structural equation model (SEM) and boosted regression tree (BRT) show that net radiation and air temperature were the most important factors affecting daily ETa during the whole study period and growing season, but that non-growing season ETa was dominated by soil water content and net radiation. The daily Kc was dominated by net radiation. Furthermore, both ETa and Kc were also affected by aboveground biomass.  相似文献   

7.
Drought/wetness conditions are fundamental not only for agricultural production but also ecology, human health, and economic activity. Dryness/wetness is a function of precipitation, temperature, vegetation and potential evapotranspiration. Regions with low moisture are often characterized by aridity which, in turn, reflects the degree of meteorological drought. Observed climatic data from eleven meteorological stations in and around Shiyang River basin, China, were used to calculate the aridity index (AI) which was defined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to precipitation (P). ET0 was calculated using the Penman–Monteith method. The ordinary kriging method was used to interpolate the spatial variability of ET0, P and AI. The Mann–Kendall test with a pre-whitening method was employed using the Yue and Wang autocorrelation correction to detect temporal trends. The Theil–Sen estimator was used to estimate the slopes of trend lines. Results showed a higher AI in the north basin and a lower AI in the Qilian Mountain region. Annual ET0 and P had increasing trends with a slope of 0.672 and 0.459 mm per year, respectively, but trends were not statistically significant for most stations. While annual AI had a slight decreasing trend with a slope of ?0.01 per year, the trend was not statistically significant for all stations. The decreasing trends in winter AI (at a rate of ?0.313/a) was more significant than that in other seasons. The study indicates that the Shiyang River basin is getting slightly wetter, especially in winter.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

The spatio-temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration (ETref) reflect the combined effects of meteorological variables, primarily wind speed, relative humidity, net radiation and air temperature. This study investigated the spatial distribution and temporal trends of ETref (calculated by the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation), pan evaporation (Epan) and pan coefficient (Kp) in a 140?×?103 km2 semi-humid to semi-arid area in China. The results show that: (i) although the spatial distributions of ETref and Epan are roughly similar and their spatial correlation is high over the growing season, Kp varied considerably in space due to high humidity in the east of the region and low humidity in the southwest; (ii) the monthly variations of ETref and Epan are similar to that of net radiation and opposite to that of relative humidity, while the monthly variation of Kp is similar to that of relative humidity and opposite to that of wind speed, and the long-term trend is slightly increasing for ETref and Epan, while significantly (10% significance level) increasing for Kp; and (iii) generally, the time series of ETref and Epan from 1951 to 2001 could be divided into three phases due to variations of meteorological variables.

Citation Liang, L.-Q., Li, L.-J. & Liu, Q. (2011) Spatio-temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in the West Songnen Plain of China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1300–1313.  相似文献   

9.
Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is important in arid and semi‐arid regions where water resources are limited. The main aim of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution and the annual, seasonal and monthly trends of the Penman–Monteith ETo for 21 stations in the arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran. Three statistical tests the Mann‐Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The analysis revealed that ETo increased from January to July and deceased from July to December at almost all stations. Additionally, higher annual ETo values were found in the southeast of the study region and lower values in the northwest of the region. Although the results showed both positive and negative trends in annual ETo series, ETo generally increased, significantly so in six (～30%) of the stations. Analysis of the impacts of meteorological variables on the temporal trends of ETo indicated that the increasing trend of ETo was most likely due to a significant increase in minimum air temperature, while decreasing trend of ETo was mainly caused by a significant decrease in wind speed. At the sites where increasing ETo trends were statistically significant, the rate of increase varied from (+)8·36 mm/year at Mashhad station to (+)31·68 mm/year at Iranshahr station. On average, an increasing trend of (+)4·42 mm/year was obtained for the whole study area during the last four decades. Seasonal and monthly ETo have also tended to increase at the majority of the stations. The greatest numbers of significant trends were observed in winter on the seasonal time‐scale and in September on the monthly time‐scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Many applications in diverse disciplines require estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) at hourly or smaller time steps. The primary objectives of this study were to compare the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equations for 15-min ET0 (ET0,15-min,ASCE and ET0,15-min,FAO) estimations for humid climate conditions and to compare the 24 h sum of ASCE (ET0,24 h,ASCE) and FAO-56 15-min ET0 (ET0,24 h,FAO) with the daily ET0 (ET0,d,FAO) computed from the daily FAO-56 equation, which is identical to ASCE daily ET0 equation. Ten-year, i.e., 1997–2006 continuous 15-min and daily weather data for 11 representative and well-distributed sites throughout Georgia, USA were used. It was evident that during the day, ET0,15-min,ASCE was higher than ET0,15-min,FAO due to a lower surface resistance parameter value, while at night ET0,15-min,ASCE was lower than ET0,15-min,FAO due to a higher surface resistance parameter value. The ET0,15-min,FAO was about 5% less than ET0,15-min,ASCE and ET0,24 h,FAO was about 5% lower than ET0,24 h,ASCE. The difference between ET0,15-min,ASCE and ET0,15-min,FAO during the day and night was highly dependent on wind speed. During the three summer months, i.e., June, July and August, on average, ET0,24 h,FAO was only 1% higher than ET0,d,FAO while ET0,24 h,ASCE was 5% higher than ET0,d,FAO. For the entire year, ET0,24 h,FAO was 8% higher than ET0,d,FAO while ET0,24 h,ASCE was 13% higher than ET0,d,FAO. The ET0,24 h,FAO and ET0,d,FAO had a better agreement than ET0,24 h,ASCE and ET0,d,FAO throughout the year and during the summer months. It is also worth noting that the daily calculations for FAO-56 and ASCE were identical. These results demonstrated that for applications that require 15-min time steps or daily ET0 for the entire year, the use of ET0,15-min,FAO and ET0,24 h,FAO, respectively, will yield more consistent outcomes. The use of ET0,d,FAO during the summer months can be as accurate as the use of ET0,24 h,FAO for applications that require daily time steps, such as irrigation scheduling.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

Acceleration of the global water cycle over recent decades remains uncertain because of the high inter-annual variability of its components. Observations of pan evaporation (Epan), a proxy of potential evapotranspiration (ETp), may help to identify trends in the water cycle over long periods. The complementary relationship (CR) states that ETp and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) depend on each other in a complementary manner, through land–atmosphere feedbacks in water-limited environments. Using a long-term series of Epan observations in Australia, we estimated monthly ETa by the CR and compared our estimates with ETa measured at eddy covariance Fluxnet stations. The results confirm that our approach, entirely data-driven, can reliably estimate ETa only in water-limited conditions. Furthermore, our analysis indicated that ETa did not show any significant trend in the last 30 years, while short-term analysis may indicate a rapid climate change that is not perceived in a long-term perspective.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Lugato, E., Alberti, G., Gioli. B., Kaplan, J.O., Peressotti, A., and Miglietta, F., 2013. Long-term pan evaporation observations as a resource to understand the water cycle trend: case studies from Australia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1287–1296.  相似文献   

12.
Chaolei Zheng  Quan Wang 《水文研究》2014,28(25):6124-6134
Spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are useful for regional agricultural and water resources management as well as required in most distributed hydrological modelling. In the current study, the Penman–Monteith estimated ET0 in the arid land of Northwestern China has been explicitly explored using the Mann–Kendall test. Most stations in the study region exhibited significant decreasing trend of ET0 (P < 0.05) with only few occasions showing significant increasing trend (P < 0.05), despite the increase of temperature in the entire region. Analysis results revealed that the overall decreasing wind speed contributed most to the decreasing trend of ET0, whereas the contributions of relative humidity and sunshine duration were limited. Temperature played the second important role on determining ET0 trend, but its effect was opposite to that of wind speed and was largely offset by the decreasing wind speed. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis suggested the impact of temperature to ET0 was much larger than formerly reported if its effect on saturated vapour deficit was taken into account. The results obtained in the current study will help for better understanding of the effects of climate changes to water resource management in the arid land of northwest China. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET0, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET0 based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET0 well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET0. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET0, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET0.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson  相似文献   

14.
In the present study, the trends in the reference evapotranspiration (ETO) estimated through the Penman‐Monteith method were investigated over the humid region of northeast (NE) India by using the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test after removing the effect of significant lag‐1 serial correlation from the time series of ETO by pre‐whitening. During the last 22 years, ETO has been found to decrease significantly at annual and seasonal time scales for 6 sites in NE India and NE India as a whole. The seasonal decreases in ETO have, however, been more significant in the pre‐monsoon season, indicating the presence of an element of a seasonal cycle. The decreases in ETO are mainly attributed to the net radiation and wind speed, which are also corroborated by the observed trends in these two parameters at almost all the times scales over most of the sites in NE India. The steady decrease in wind speed and decline in net radiation not only balanced the impact of the temperature increases on ETO, but may have actually caused the decreases in ETO over the humid region of northeast India. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
X. Mo  S. Liu  Z. Lin  S. Wang  S. Hu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2163-2177
Abstract

Using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from NOAA-AVHRR and Terra-MODIS, together with climatic data in a physical evapotranspiration (ET) model, the spatio-temporal variability of ET is investigated in terrestrial China from 1981 to 2010. The model predictions of actual ET (ETa) are validated with ET values from in situ eddy covariance flux measurements and from basin water balance calculations. The national averaged crop reference ET (ETp) and ETa values are 916 ± 21 and 415 ± 12 mm year-1, respectively. The annual ETa pattern is closely associated with vegetation conditions in the eastern part of China, whereas ETa is low in the sparsely-vegetated areas and deserts in the northwestern region, corresponding to scarce rainfall events and amounts. The trends of ETp and ETa are remarkably different over the country, and the complementary relationship between ETp and ETa is revealed for the study period. Averaged over the whole country, ETa showed an increasing trend from the 1980s to the mid-1990s, followed by a decreasing trend, consistent with the precipitation anomaly. Across the main vegetation types, annual ETa amounts are found to correspond clearly with the bands of precipitation and ETp.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT

The Hargreaves method provides reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimates when only air temperature data are available, although it requires previous local calibration for an acceptable performance. This method was evaluated using the data from 71 meteorological stations in the Seolma-cheon basin (8.48 km2), South Korea, comparing daily estimates against those from the Penman‐Monteith (PM) method, which was used as the standard. To estimate reference ETo more exactly, considering the climatological characteristics in South Korea, parameter regionalization of the Hargreaves equation is carried out. First, the modified Hargreaves equation is presented after an analysis of the relationship between solar radiation and temperature. Second, parameter (KET) optimization of the regional calibration of the Hargreaves equation (RCH) is performed using the PM method and the modified equation at 71 meteorological stations. Next, an application was carried out to evaluate the evapotranspiration methods (PM, original Hargreaves and RCH) in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model by comparing these with the measured actual evapotranspiration (AET) in the basin. The SWAT model was calibrated using 3 years (2007–2009) of daily streamflow at the watershed outlet and 3 years (2007–2009) of daily AET measured at a mixed forest. The model was validated with 3 years (2010‐2012) of streamflow and AET. RCH will contribute to a better understanding of evapotranspiration of an ungauged watershed in areas where meteorological information is scarce.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR Not assigned  相似文献   

17.
Sensitivity analysis is crucial in assessing the impact of climatic variables on reference evapotranspiration estimations. The sensitivity of the standardized ASCE–Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration equation for daily estimations to climatic variables has not yet been studied in Spain. Andalusia is located in southern Spain where almost 1 million ha are irrigated under quite different conditions; it has a high inter‐annual variability in rainfall. In this study, sensitivity analyses for this equation were carried out for temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed data from 87 automatic weather stations, including coastal and inland locations, from 1999 to 2006. Topography and Mediterranean climate characterize the heterogeneous landscape and vegetation of this region. Simulated random and systematic errors have been added to meteorological data to obtain ET0 deviations and sensitivity coefficients for different time periods. BIAS and SEE (standard error of estimate) have been used to evaluate the effect of both types of errors. The results showed a large degree of daily and seasonal variability, especially for temperature and relative humidity. In general, the effect on ET0 values of introduced random errors was larger than that of systematic errors. ET0 overestimations were produced using positive errors in temperature, solar radiation and wind speed data, while these errors in relative humidity resulted in ET0 underestimations. The sensitivity of ET0 to the same climatic variables showed significant differences among locations. The geographical distribution of sensitivity coefficients across this region was also studied. As an example, during spring months, ET0 equation was more sensitive to temperature in stations located along the Guadalquivir Valley. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

Annual patterns in climate parameters were studied to evaluate how these influence the quality of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimates obtained from the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation, since the method only uses the measured temperature directly. The work evaluates how these patterns can be used to improve the HS ETo estimates. Ten-year moving averages from a set of California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations were used to evaluate the relationships between solar radiation (Rs), temperature (T) and ETo. The results indicate that T treads behind solar radiation and its value peaks some 25 days later. Thus, the main irrigation season in the Mediterranean climate (1 May–30 September) can be divided into three phases: increasing Rs and T; decreasing Rs with increasing T; and decreasing Rs and T. Non-univocal annual cycles were observed between Rs and T, ETo and Rs, and ETo and T. These annual patterns result in important seasonal changes in the ratio between the HS and Penman-Monteith (FAO PM) ETo estimates. The changes are particularly important during the irrigation season, where the FAO PM initially calculates greater ETo values than the HS methodology, and from the end of May to early September, where the HS equation overestimates the ETo values (by 17 mm, or 3%). These patterns obtained from 2000–2009 data were used to calibrate and improve HS ETo estimates at new sites for the 2010–2011 period. Calibration based on the proposed seasonal region-wide FAO PM/HS ETo ratios improved both the bias (decreased from 0.40 to 0.36 mm d-1) and r2 (increased from 0.67 to 0.87) of the ETo estimates for the irrigation season. The proposed methodology can be easily applied to other regions, even when the existing weather stations are sparse.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz  相似文献   

19.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(15):1824-1842
ABSTRACT

In this research, five hybrid novel machine learning approaches, artificial neural network (ANN)-embedded grey wolf optimizer (ANN-GWO), multi-verse optimizer (ANN-MVO), particle swarm optimizer (ANN-PSO), whale optimization algorithm (ANN-WOA) and ant lion optimizer (ANN-ALO), were applied for modelling monthly reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at Ranichauri (India) and Dar El Beida (Algeria) stations. The estimates yielded by hybrid machine learning models were compared against three models, Valiantzas-1, 2 and 3 based on root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and Willmott index (WI). The results of comparison show that the ANN-GWO-1 model with five input variables (Tmin, Tmax, RH, Us, Rs) provides better estimates at both study stations (RMSE = 0.0592/0.0808, NSE = 0.9972/0.9956, PCC = 0.9986/0.9978, and WI = 0.9993/0.9989). Also, the adopted modelling strategy can build a truthful expert intelligent system for estimating the monthly ETo at study stations.  相似文献   

20.
Reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a key parameter in hydrological and meteorological studies. In this study, the FAO Penman–Monteith equation was used to estimate ET 0 , and the change in ET 0 was investigated in China from 1960 to 2011. The results show that a change point around the year 1993 was detected for the annual ET 0 series by the Cramer’s test. For the national average, annual ET 0 decreased significantly (P < 0.001) by ?14.35 mm/decade from 1960 to 1992, while ET 0 increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 22.40 mm/decade from 1993 to 2011. A differential equation method was used to attribute the change in ET 0 to climate variables. The attribution results indicate that ET 0 was most sensitive to change in vapor pressure, followed by solar radiation, air temperature and wind speed. However, the effective impact of change in climate variable on ET 0 was the product of the sensitivity and the change rate of climate variable. During 1960–1992, the decrease in solar radiation was the main reason of the decrease in ET 0 in humid region, while decrease in wind speed was the dominant factor of decreases in ET 0 in arid region and semi-arid/semi-humid region of China. Decrease in solar radiation and/or wind speed offset the effect of increasing air temperature on ET 0 , and together led to the decrease in ET 0 from 1960 to 1992. Since 1993, the rapidly increasing air temperature was the dominant factor to the change in ET 0 in all the three regions of China, which led to the increase in ET 0 . Furthermore, the future change in ET 0 was calculated under IPCC SRES A1B and B1 scenarios with projections from three GCMs. The results showed that increasing air temperature would dominate the change in ET 0 and ET 0 would increase by 2.13–10.77, 4.42–16.21 and 8.67–21.27 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared with the average annual ET 0 during 1960–1990, respectively. The increases in ET 0 would lead to the increase in agriculture water consumption in the 21st century and may aggravate the water shortage in China.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号