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1.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Abstract Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for. 相似文献
2.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract The method of L-moment ratio diagrams along with the averaged weighted distance (AWD) is applied to identify a probability distribution of annual minimum streamflow, namely annual minimum daily streamflow in 11 climatic regions of Canada. Across the entire country, the Pearson type III probability distribution is an acceptable distribution for describing annual minimum streamflow with the 3-parameter lognormal and log Pearson type III distributions as potential candidates. Some minor differences in the probability distribution type among different climatic regions are also observed, which may be taken into account in the selection of the distribution type of annual minimum streamflow. 相似文献
3.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Monitoring the change of snow-covered area (SCA) in a basin is vitally important for optimum operation of water resources, where the main contribution comes from snowmelt. A methodology for obtaining the depletion pattern of SCA, which is based on satellite image observations where mean daily air temperature is used, is applied for the 1997 water year and tested for the 1998 water year. The study is performed at the Upper Euphrates River basin in Turkey (10 216 km2). The major melting period in this basin starts in early April. The cumulated mean daily air temperature (CMAT) is correlated to the depletion of snow-covered area with the start of melting. The analysis revealed that SCA values obtained from NOAA-AVHRR satellite images are exponentially correlated to CMAT for the whole basin in a lumped manner, where R 2 values of 0.98 and 0.99 were obtained for the water years 1997 and 1998, respectively. The applied methodology enables the interpolation between the SCA observations and extrapolation. Such a procedure reduces the number of satellite images required for analysis and provides solution for the cloud-obscured images. Based on the image availability, the effect of the number of images on the quality of snowmelt runoff simulations is also discussed. In deriving the depletion curve for SCA, if the number of images is reduced, the timing of image analysis within the snowmelt period is found very important. Analysis of the timing of satellite images indicated that images from the early and middle parts of the melt period are more important. 相似文献
4.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Abstract Water resources in dryland areas are often provided by numerous surface reservoirs. As a basis for securing future water supply, the dynamics of reservoir systems need to be simulated for large river basins, accounting for environmental change and an increasing water demand. For the State of Ceará in semiarid Northeast Brazil, with several thousands of reservoirs, a simple deterministic water balance model is presented. Within a cascade-type approach, the reservoirs are grouped into six classes according to storage capacity, rules for flow routing between reservoirs of different size are defined, and water withdrawal and return flow due to human water use is accounted for. While large uncertainties in model applications exist, particularly in terms of reservoir operation rules, model validation against observed reservoir storage volumes shows that the approach is a reasonable simplification to assess surface water availability in large river basins. The results demonstrate the large impact of reservoir storage on downstream flow and stress the need for a coupled simulation of runoff generation, network redistribution and water use. 相似文献
5.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Abstract A hydrological simulation model was developed for conjunctive representation of surface and groundwater processes. It comprises a conceptual soil moisture accounting module, based on an enhanced version of the Thornthwaite model for the soil moisture reservoir, a Darcian multi-cell groundwater flow module and a module for partitioning water abstractions among water resources. The resulting integrated scheme is highly flexible in the choice of time (i.e. monthly to daily) and space scales (catchment scale, aquifer scale). Model calibration involved successive phases of manual and automatic sessions. For the latter, an innovative optimization method called evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm is devised. The objective function involves weighted goodness-of-fit criteria for multiple variables with different observation periods, as well as penalty terms for restricting unrealistic water storage trends and deviations from observed intermittency of spring flows. Checks of the unmeasured catchment responses through manually changing parameter bounds guided choosing final parameter sets. The model is applied to the particularly complex Boeoticos Kephisos basin, Greece, where it accurately reproduced the main basin response, i.e. the runoff at its outlet, and also other important components. Emphasis is put on the principle of parsimony which resulted in a computationally effective modelling. This is crucial since the model is to be integrated within a stochastic simulation framework. 相似文献
6.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract A revised approach to the calculation of baseflow using the method originally proposed by the United Kingdom Institute of Hydrology is presented. The revisions resolve two aspects of the method that lead to less than optimal results; that is, the calculation of values of baseflow that exceed the corresponding values of streamflow and the dependence of the calculated values on the origin of the five-day segmentation of the input streamflow data. The approach is illustrated using streamflow monitoring information that is typical for areas of southern Ontario, Canada, where baseflow is primarily the result of groundwater discharge. 相似文献
7.
WILLIAM K. NUTTLE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):805-807
Abstract This paper reviews current knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in Africa and the possible limits, barriers or opportunities for adaptation to climate change in internationally-shared river basins. Africa faces significant challenges to water resources management in the form of high variability and regional scarcity, set within the context of generally weak institutional capacity. Management is further challenged by the transboundary nature of many of its river basins. Climate change, despite uncertainty about the detail of its impacts on water resources, is likely to exacerbate many of these challenges. River basins, and the riparian states that share them, differ in their capacities to adapt. Without appropriate cooperation adaptation may be limited and uneven. Further research to examine the factors and processes that are important for cooperation to lead to positive adaptation outcomes and the increased adaptive capacity of water management institutions is suggested. 相似文献
8.
Abstract Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373. 相似文献
9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract Base flows make up the flows of most rivers in Zimbabwe during the dry season. Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics is necessary for water resources planning of ungauged basins. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were used to predict the base flow index (BFI) from basin characteristics for 52 basins in Zimbabwe. Base flow index was positively related to mean annual precipitation (r = 0.71), basin slope (r = 0.76), and drainage density (r = 0.29), and negatively related to mean annual evapotranspiration (r = –0.74), and proportion of a basin with grasslands and wooded grasslands (r = –0.53). Differences in lithology did not significantly affect BFI. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were both suitable for predicting BFI values. The predicted BFI was used in turn to derive flow duration curves of the 52 basins and with R 2 being 0.89–0.99. 相似文献
10.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-CS and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years. 相似文献
11.
Abstract Surface water resources, although abundant, are unevenly distributed in the tropical Dominican Republic. Despite large surface water regulation schemes, some of the semiarid regions remain deficient in water resources. A preliminary appraisal of the aquifer systems of the country, with emphasis on the three major regional aquifers, suggests how these deficiencies may be compensated. 相似文献
12.
Numerical groundwater modelling as an effective tool for management of water resources in arid areas
Mohamed El Alfy 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1259-1274
AbstractGroundwater, possibly of fossil origin, is used for water supply in some arid regions where the replenishment of groundwater by precipitation is low. Numerical modelling is a helpful tool in the assessment of groundwater resources and analysis of future exploitation scenarios. To quantify the groundwater resources of the East Owienat area in the southwest of the Western Desert, Egypt, the present study assesses the groundwater resources management of the Nubian aquifer. Groundwater withdrawals have increased in this area, resulting in a disturbance of the aquifer’s natural equilibrium, and the large-scale and ongoing depletion of this critical water reserve. Negative impacts, such as a decline in water levels and increase in salinity, have been experienced. The methodology includes application of numerical groundwater modelling in steady and transient states under different measured and abstraction scenarios. The numerical simulation model developed was applied to assess the responses of the Nubian aquifer water level under different pumping scenarios during the next 30 years. Groundwater management scenarios are evaluated to find an optimal management solution to satisfy future needs. Based on analysis of three different development schemes that were formulated to predict the future response of the aquifer under long-term water stress, a gradual increase in groundwater pumping to 150% of present levels should be adopted for protection and better management of the aquifer. Similar techniques could be used to improve groundwater management in other parts of the country, as well as other similar arid regions.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor X. Chen 相似文献
13.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Because droughts cover extensive areas, it is important to consider multisite droughts in a region. Probability distribution of joint droughts at a number of sites is derived assuming that flows are cross-correlated first-order Markov processes. A geometric distribution is found with a parameter that depends on the threshold probability, lag-one autocorrelation coefficients, and the multivariate probability of remaining below the threshold. Computation of the parameter of the geometric distribution is discussed. An expression is obtained for the return period of multisite droughts. Application of the derived expression is shown in an example. 相似文献
14.
Abstract In the current context of climatic variability, it is important to quantify the impact on the environment. This study deals with an analysis of climatic data and land-use changes in terms of the impacts on flood recurrence based on multisource data. The study area covers the mouth of the Saint-François River (southern Québec, Canada), where spring floods and ice jams are a recurring problem. The flood frequency analysis shows an increase in flooding over recent decades, attributable to an increase in winter temperatures that has the effect of causing ice jams earlier in the year. Regarding land-use changes, a small decrease in agricultural surface areas is observed, from 53% to 39%, along with increases in forest and urban surface areas from 27% to 38% (forest) and 3% to 5% (urban) between 1928 and 2005. In a context of continuing climate warming, more pronounced inter-annual variations are to be expected along with a higher incidence of flooding. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Ouellet, C., Saint-Laurent, D. and Normand, F., 2012. Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River, southern Québec, Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 313–325. 相似文献
15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract This paper aims to show the benefit of a regional approach for the estimation of rare daily rainfall. The studied region is Languedoc-Roussillon (south of France), where recent exceptional storms necessitate the revision of the statistical distributions, particularly their asymptotic tails over extreme values. The example of a large single-site time series of maximum daily rainfall at Marseille (1864–2002), very close to the studied region, shows a hyper-exponential behaviour for extreme events. At the regional scale, the homogenization process of daily maximum rainfall has been performed by considering that the coefficients of variation of the yearly maximum daily rainfall are stationary over the study zone. Two regional sample studies have been carried out on 15 and 23 gauges, randomly distributed in space, and a similar distribution could be fitted to both samples. As in the case of Marseille, the regional distribution shows a hyper-exponential asymptotic behaviour at the extreme values. The obtained regional distribution provides a systematic method for computation of rare daily rainfall that may be applied in every part of the studied region and, when compared with previous estimations, leads to a significant increase in the depth of rare rainfall. 相似文献
16.
CHANDRA K. SHARMA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):327-333
Abstract In a mountainous country like Nepal, where precipitation from the monsoon (July) and the westerlies (January) occurs yearly, it is surprising to find partial drought conditions in space and time. This paper deals with the partial drought conditions and also the measures to combat them. 相似文献
17.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract Abstract The knowledge of the precipitation phase, solid or liquid, is important in high mountains, in order to use models of water and energy balances. During an experiment led in the Bolivian Andes, a complete weather station was installed at an altitude close to 4800 m, including two raingauge recorders, the first one with added antifreeze and oil, based on weight measurement, and the other one with tipping buckets. This device allowed a realistic partition of the liquid and solid phases in this region of tropical mountains, where the observed snow pack at the ground level is strongly influenced by the extremely high solar radiation and where the snow cover is ephemeral. The automation of the ?raingauges? method, compared with several other classical methods, shows satisfactory results. 相似文献
18.
19.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Abstract The Shiyang River basin is a typical interior river basin that faces water shortage and environmental deterioration in the arid northwest of China. Due to its arid climate, limited water resources and some inappropriate water-related human activities, the area has developed serious loss of vegetation, and gradual soil salinization and desertification, which have greatly impeded the sustainable development of agriculture and life in this region. In this paper, the impacts of human activities on the water–soil environment in Shiyang River basin are analysed in terms of precipitation, runoff in branches of the river, inflow into lower reaches, water conveyance efficiency of the canal system and irrigation water use efficiency in the field, replenishment and exploitation of groundwater resources, soil salinization, vegetation cover and the speed of desertification. The results show that human activities and global climate change have no significant influence on the precipitation, but the total annual runoff in eight branch rivers showed a significant decrease over the years. The proportion of water use in the upper and middle reaches compared to the lower reach was increased from 1:0.57 in the 1960s, to 1:0.27 in the 1970s and 1:0.09 in the 1990s. A reduction of about 74% in the river inflow to the lower reaches and a 15-m drop in the groundwater table have occurred during the last four decades. Strategies for improving the water–soil environment of the basin, such as the protection of the water resources of the Qilian Mountains, sustainable use of water resources, maintenance of the balance between land and water resources, development of water-saving agriculture, diverting of water from other rivers and control of soil desertification, are proposed. The objective of this paper is to provide guidelines for reconstruction of the sustainable water management and development of agriculture in this region. 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)
Abstract Abstract Various uncertainties are inherent in modelling any reservoir operation problem. Two of these are addressed in this study: uncertainty involved in the expression of reservoir penalty functions, and uncertainty in determining the target release value. Fuzzy set theory was used to model these uncertainties where the preferences of the decision maker for the fuzzified parameters are expressed as membership functions. Nonlinear penalty functions are used to determine the penalties due to deviations from targets. The optimization was performed using a genetic algorithm with the objectives to minimize the total penalty and to maximize the level of satisfaction of the decision maker with fuzzified input parameters. The proposed formulation was applied to the problem of finding the optimal release and storage values, taking Green reservoir in Kentucky, USA as a case study. The approach offers more flexibility to reservoir decision-making by demonstrating an efficient way to represent subjective uncertainties, and to deal with non-commensurate objectives under a fuzzy multi-objective environment. 相似文献