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1.
Abstract The spatio-temporal variability of daily precipitation series was investigated in a semiarid region of central Macedonia in northern Greece, Ten years of daily rainfall records for seven stations in the region constituted the data base. The spatial characteristics were examined by drawing composite correlation diagrams for the cool (October-March) season and the warm (April-September) season, and the results confirmed the regional homogeneity of the data sets. Furthermore, the temporal analysis indicated that the non-rainy days constituted the major portion of days throughout the year at all the stations. Similarly, light rainfall represented the majority of rainy days. Moreover, the annual rainfall variation showed high values in March, April and November with low values occurring in the summer and autumn. A sharp increase of rainfall between the 185th and the 195th day of the year must be taken into account when the harvest is scheduled. Harmonic and Power Spectrum analyses applied to the annual variation of rain depths using 5-day intervals revealed significant periodicities of 26, 122, 365 and 55 days. Finally the analysis of the annual variation of rain occurrences. revealed periodicities of 365 and 122 days. 相似文献
2.
A feedback mechanism in annual rainfall, Central Sudan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir 《Journal of Hydrology》1989,110(3-4):323-334
Annual rainfall in many parts of the world is an independent process. Yet annual rainfall series in some regions of Africa show characteristics incompatible with such an hypothesis.
The annual rainfall process in Central Sudan is weakly dependent. The hypothesis that the dependence is due to a “feedback mechanism” is investigated using a mathematical model based on the water balance of the neighbouring region, Bahr Elghazal. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACT This study assesses the climate change impact on rainfall and drought incidents across Nigeria. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and lag-1 serial correlation were adopted to analyse the trends and variability of rainfall and drought at 18 synoptic stations. Analysis of annual precipitation series indicates an increase in rainfall amounts at all stations, except Minna, Gusau and Yola. Seventeen of the 18 stations recorded at least one main drought period, between 1983 and 1987. A decreasing trend for the standardized precipitation index SPI-12 series was seen at Yola station, while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Also, Nigeria witnessed more annual rainfall totals but with high variability within the rainy months of the year in the first 15 years of the 21st century compared to the 20th century. Such variability in rainfall may have a significant effect on groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria. 相似文献
4.
ABSTRACTThis study assesses the performance of Fourier series in representing seasonal variations of the tropical rainfall process in Malaysia. Fourier series are incorporated into a spatial-temporal stochastic model in an attempt to make the model parsimonious and, at the same time, capture the annual variation of rainfall distribution. In view of Malaysia’s main rainfall regime, the model is individually fitted for two regions with distinctive rainfall profiles: one being an urban area receiving rainfall from convective activities whilst the other receives rainfall from monsoonal activities. Since both regions are susceptible to floods, the study focuses on the rainfall process at fine resolution. Fourier series equations are developed to represent the model’s parameters to describe their annual periodicity. The number of significant harmonics for each parameter is determined by inspecting the cumulative fraction of total variance explained by the significant harmonics. Results reveal that the number of significant harmonics assigned for the parameters is slightly higher in the region with monsoonal rains. The overall simulation results show that the proposed model is capable of generating tropical rainfall series from convective and monsoonal activities.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献
5.
Abstract Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373. 相似文献
6.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract An annual water balance model of Lake Victoria is derived for the period 1925–2000. Regression techniques are used to derive annual inputs to the water balance, based on lake rainfall data, measured and derived inflows and estimated evaporation during the historical period. This approach acknowledges that runoff is a nonlinear function of lake rainfall. A longer inflow series is produced here which is representative of the whole inflow to the lake, rather than just from individual tributaries. The results show a good simulation of annual lake levels and outflows and capture the high lake level in 1997–1998. Climate change scenarios, from a recent global climate model experiment, are applied to the lake rainfall inflow series and evaporation data to estimate future water balances of the lake. The scenarios produce a potential fall in lake levels by the 2030s horizon, and a rise by the 2080s horizon. A discussion of the application of climate change data to this complex hydrological system is presented. 相似文献
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8.
Mamadou Adama Sarr Philippe Gachon Ousmane Seidou Christopher Robin Bryant Jacques André Ndione Jacques Comby 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(9):1538-1549
AbstractDaily precipitation data from 31 Senegalese stations spanning the period from 1950 to 2007 were used to examine the inter-annual variations of seven rainfall indices: the annual mean precipitation (MEAN); the annual standard deviation of daily precipitation (STD); the frequency of wet days (Prcp1); the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD); the maximum 3-day rainfall total (R3D); the wet day precipitation intensity (SDII); and the 90th percentile of rain-day precipitation (Prec90p). The indices were spatially averaged over three agro-climatic regions in Senegal. Trends in the time series of the averaged indices were assessed using both visual examination and a modified version of the Mann-Kendall (MM-K) test. Initially negative significant trends in all seven indices suggest gradually drier conditions over the three agro-climatic regions between 1950 and 1980. In contrast, no significant trends, or even positive significant trends, were observed from the mid-1980s to 2007. The MM-K test was applied to all available data (1950–2007) and the period from 1971 to 2000. While several indices were found to have significant trends towards drier conditions for the 1950–2007 period, only PRCP1 showed a positive significant trend for the 1971–2000 period. The MM-K test did not detect a significant trend for the other indices. It was found that the rainfall deficit and therefore drought is no longer intensifying, and that the region may even become wetter. However, the period covered by the observations is still too short to resolve the question of whether there is now a trend towards wetter conditions.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献
9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract The study of changes in annual rainfall in the Lake Chad basin during the 20th century is based on the analysis of 47 stations, i.e. a total of about 1600 station-years for the time series with more than 25 years of data. As previously observed in western and Sahelian Africa, robust tests of shift in time series identify a significant change in mean from the beginning of the 1960s between the latitudes 11 and 13°N, and a little later in this decade for the northern stations. The analysis of decadal rainfall shows that the 1950s decade was very humid and the next three decades were drier. These dry conditions were more and more severe until the 1980s. Data available after 1990 do not show any inversion in the trend. The annual rainfall decreases from south to north, and the regional gradient has changed from 1.5 mm km?1 in the 1950s to 1.2 mm km?1 in the 1980s between the latitudes 10 and 14°N. 相似文献
10.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract West African rainfall is characterized by a strong variability, both at decadal and interannual scales. In order to quantify the hydrological impacts of such a variability, analysis of rainfall patterns at fine scales is highly essential. This diagnostic study aims to characterize the Sudanese rainfall regime at hydrological scales, using a raingauge data set collected on the upper Oueme River catchment (Benin) between 1950 and 2002. A long-term drought is observed during the 1970s and 1980s, as in the Sahel. However, the interannual variability remains significant in the Sudanese region. The study of the seasonal cycle, based on the distinction between the oceanic and continental monsoon regimes, shows that the majority of rainfall changes occur in the continental regime. On the one hand, the rainfall peak associated with this regime that has been observed for the last 50 years has occurred increasingly earlier in the season. On the other hand, the annual rainfall deficit is mainly linked to the decrease in the number of large events during the continental part of the season. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACTThe aim of the present paper was to improve understanding of the rainfall dynamics in Bas-Congo and Kinshasa provinces, in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The first objective of the study was achieved by analysing the spatial correlations of monthly, seasonal, annual and individual monthly rainfall amounts of Kinshasa and Bas-Congo. The second objective was achieved through investigating and quantifying the temporal trends and their spatial variations. The results demonstrated notably high average inter-station correlation of +0.63 for dry season series, followed by monthly rainfall series with an average inter-station correlation of +0.58. However, there was no station with a stable monthly rainfall regime, i.e. with mean precipitation concentration index lower than 10% (it varies between 14.2 and 21.9%). Moreover, Kinshasa experienced an increase of rainfall with an average annual rate of change of +4.59 mm/year for the period 1961–2006. The results will be helpful for efficient water resources management and for mitigating the adverse impacts of future extreme drought or flood occurrences.
Editor M.C. Acreman Associate editor N. Verhoest 相似文献
12.
Francis W.N. Nsubuga O.J. Botai Jane M. Olwoch C.J. deW Rautenbach Yvette Bevis Adebayo O. Adetunji 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):278-299
AbstractA study of rainfall trends and temporal variations within seven sub-basins of Uganda spanning from 1940 to 2009 has been made. Rainfall climatologies are constructed from observational data, using 36 station records which reflect hydroclimatic conditions. Long-term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Sen’s T tests), coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index and drought severity index. Magnitude of change was estimated by applying Sen’s estimator of slope. Decadal variability of rainfall with marked seasonal cycles is evident. Temporal variability of drought patterns is detected. Variations in annual rainfall are low with no significant trends observed in the main drainage sub-basins. Significant trends occur in October, November, December and January. A noticeable decrease in the annual total rainfall was observed mostly in northwestern and southwestern sub-basins. Rainfall trend in the second normal of June–July–August (JJA) was decreasing in all the main drainage sub-basins.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. YueCitation Nsubuga, F.W.N., Botai, O.J., Olwoch, J.M., Rautenbach, C.J.deW., Bevis, Y., and Adetunji, A.O., 2014. The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 278–299. 相似文献
13.
Abstract The definition of rainfall behaviour at the regional level is of great importance in planning policy for the rational use of water resources for both agricultural and urban uses. It allows the delimitation of areas of homogeneous rainfall features and shows the system dynamics in the area, so providing more comprehensive knowledge about the rainfall. Precipitation zones were identified within the São Francisco River basin, Northeast Brazil, by analysing the rainfall frequencies by means of global wavelet power spectra. Data from 200 raingauges were analysed and the results of the overall power spectra showed a high annual frequency throughout the basin; however, other frequencies are present with minor significance that represent changes in the rainfall regime. Although, the computed global wavelet power spectra presented an annual frequency, they showed peculiar patterns (denoted A and B) that could be used to characterize the region. Thus, three sub-regions with homogeneous rainfall patterns were identified as: Region A (south part of the basin) and Region B (north part of the basin), with frequency patterns A and B, respectively, and a Transition Zone in the central part that shows both frequency patterns. Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Morais, B.S., 2013. Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 789–796. 相似文献
14.
J. DA COSTA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):487-488
Abstract The drought event which reached severe levels in 1972 and 1973 caused a major disaster in the Sahalian and sub-Sahalian zones in Africa. This disaster has drawn attention to the need for data surveys and detailed studies for meaningful long-term measures to combat the effects of future droughts. The study reported in this paper is an attempt to assess the hydrological aspects of the drought event in Nigeria in 1972 and 1973. There exist relatively long and reliable records of rainfall within the drought zone, while records for runoff, water level and groundwater are few and far between. Data available are analysed to determine evidence of trend and persistence (short and long-term). An examination of the rainfall records showed that extreme dry years at all the stations tended to recur at about the same time. The time interval between these extreme dry years was about 30 years. It was also observed from the spectral analysis of the records that most of the spectra for all the stations showed a generally high level of variance at low frequency. The limited information on runoff and groundwater precludes a detailed statistical analysis from being carried out on the annual series of runoff. However, the runoff data at some stations snowed that the magnitude of runoff in the drought year 1972/1973 was about 22–72 per cent of the average value for the length of record available (about eight years). Moreover, the long-term water-level record of Lake Chad revealed a similar trend for the occurrence of extreme dry years to that observed in the rainfall record. 相似文献
15.
Abstract Flood distributions can have unimodal or multimodal densities due to different flood generation mechanisms such as snowmelt and rainfall in the annual flood series. When applying nonparametric frequency analysis to annual flood data from the province of New Brunswick in Canada, unimodal, bimodal and heavy-tailed distribution shapes were found. By grouping basins with similarly-shaped densities on a geographical basis, homogeneous regions were delineated. Regional equations derived for a homogeneous region gave lower integral square errors than those of province-wide equations. 相似文献
16.
ABSTRACT In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses. 相似文献
17.
AbstractThe annual water balance for 39 grid cells covering the savannah woodland region of Sudan (10–16°N; 21–36°E) was determined and regional maps produced. Long-term (1961–1990) mean monthly climate data, National Forest Inventory data and Harmonized World Soil Database data for arenosols and vertisols, the two dominant soil types in the region, were used. Model validation was performed using daily data from a site in one of the grid cells and inter-annual (1961–1990) variation examined for another grid cell. Rainfall varied from 147 to 732 mm and only exceeded evapotranspiration for 18 of the grid cells, resulting in a small increase in soil moisture and runoff. Evapotranspiration accounted for, on average, 96% of rainfall and there was little difference between soil types. Drainage only occurred from AR soils and for four of the grid cells. Runoff varied from 0 to 89 mm for arenosols and from 0 to 109 mm for vertisols. The study provided useful insights into the spatial variability in water balance components across the region.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten 相似文献
18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract This paper aims to show the benefit of a regional approach for the estimation of rare daily rainfall. The studied region is Languedoc-Roussillon (south of France), where recent exceptional storms necessitate the revision of the statistical distributions, particularly their asymptotic tails over extreme values. The example of a large single-site time series of maximum daily rainfall at Marseille (1864–2002), very close to the studied region, shows a hyper-exponential behaviour for extreme events. At the regional scale, the homogenization process of daily maximum rainfall has been performed by considering that the coefficients of variation of the yearly maximum daily rainfall are stationary over the study zone. Two regional sample studies have been carried out on 15 and 23 gauges, randomly distributed in space, and a similar distribution could be fitted to both samples. As in the case of Marseille, the regional distribution shows a hyper-exponential asymptotic behaviour at the extreme values. The obtained regional distribution provides a systematic method for computation of rare daily rainfall that may be applied in every part of the studied region and, when compared with previous estimations, leads to a significant increase in the depth of rare rainfall. 相似文献
19.
Abstract The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall have been studied using monthly data series of 135 years (1871–2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in India. Half of the sub-divisions showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall, but for only three (Haryana, Punjab and Coastal Karnataka), this trend was statistically significant. Similarly, only one sub-division (Chattisgarh) indicated a significant decreasing trend out of the 15 sub-divisions showing decreasing trend in annual rainfall. In India, the monsoon months of June to September account for more than 80% of the annual rainfall. During June and July, the number of sub-divisions showing increasing rainfall is almost equal to those showing decreasing rainfall. In August, the number of sub-divisions showing an increasing trend exceeds those showing a decreasing trend, whereas in September, the situation is the opposite. The majority of sub-divisions showed very little change in rainfall in non-monsoon months. The five main regions of India showed no significant trend in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in most of the months. For the whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly rainfall. Annual and monsoon rainfall decreased, while pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall increased at the national scale. Rainfall in June, July and September decreased, whereas in August it increased, at the national scale. Citation Kumar, V., Jain, S. K. & Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 484–496. 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):917-935
Abstract For urban drainage and urban flood modelling applications, fine spatial and temporal rainfall resolution is required. Simulation methods are developed to overcome the problem of data limitations. Although temporal resolution higher than 10–20 minutes is not well suited for detailed rainfall—runoff modelling for urban drainage networks, in the absence of monitored data, longer time intervals can be used for master planning or similar purposes. A methodology is presented for temporal disaggregation and spatial distribution of hourly rainfall fields, tested on observations for a 10-year period at 16 raingauges in the urban catchment of Dalmuir (UK). Daily rainfall time series are simulated with a generalized linear model (GLM). Next, using a single-site disaggregation model, the daily data of the central gauge in the catchment are downscaled to an hourly time scale. This hourly pattern is then applied linearly in space to disaggregate the daily data into hourly rainfall at all sites. Finally, the spatial rainfall field is obtained using inverse distance weighting (IDW) to interpolate the data over the whole catchment. Results are satisfactory: at individual sites within the region the simulated data preserve properties that match the observed statistics to an acceptable level for practical purposes. 相似文献