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1.
David A. Jay 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1186-1209
Abstract This paper distinguishes human and climate influences on the Columbia River streamflow disturbance regime, examines how this disturbance regime has changed over the last 150 years, and discusses downstream impacts. Flow management and withdrawal have greatly curtailed exceedence of the natural bankfull level of ～20 000 m3 s-1. The frequency distribution of Columbia River flow has also changed. Sediment transport is positively correlated with streamflow standard deviation, and has been greatly reduced by flow regulation. Three kinds of spring freshet style have been identified; there are also three kinds of winter freshet. Flow regulation and regional climate warming have changed freshet styles and reduced maximum flows during the spring season. Downstream effects of hydrological alterations include increased salinity intrusion length, loss of shallow water habitat area during the freshet season, increased tides throughout most of the year, and a decrease in area of the Columbia River plume during spring and summer. Although climate changes and variations have played a substantial role in changing the hydrological disturbance regime, their influence is still less than that of human manipulation of the flow cycle. Citation Jay, D. A. & Naik, P. K. (2011) Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological disturbance processes in the Columbia River, USA. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1186–1209. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACTUnder the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献
3.
Yanchun Zhou 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1340-1360
AbstractThis paper quantifies the impacts of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from three southeast Australian catchments where bushfires occurred in February 1983. Three hydrological models (AWRA-L, Xinanjiang and GR4J) were first calibrated against streamflow data from the pre-bushfire period and then used to simulate runoff for the post-bushfire period with the calibrated parameters. The difference in simulated streamflow between pre- and post-bushfire periods provides an estimate of the impact of climate variability on streamflow. The impact of bushfire on streamflow is quantified by removing the climate variability impact from the difference in mean annual observed streamflow between post- and pre-bushfire periods. For the first 15 years after the 1983 bushfires, the results from hydrological models for the three catchments indicate that there is a substantial increase in streamflow; this is attributed to initial decreases in evapotranspiration and soil infiltration rates resulting from the fires, followed by logging activity. After 15 years, streamflow dynamics are more heavily influenced by climate effects, although some impact from fire and logging regeneration may still occur. The results show that hydrological models provide reasonably consistent estimates of bushfire and climate impacts on streamflow for the three catchments. The models can be used to quantify relative contributions of forest disturbance (bushfire, logging and other forest management) and climate variability. The results presented can also help forest managers understand the relationship between bushfire and climate variability impacts on water yield in the context of climate variability. 相似文献
4.
Abstract The Baker basin (27 000 km2) is located in one of the most pristine and remote areas of the planet. Its hydrological regime is poised to undergo dramatic changes in the near future due to hydropower development and climate change. The basin contains the second-largest lake in South America, and part of a major icefield. This study documents the natural baseline of the Baker River basin, discusses the main hydrological modes and analyses the potential for sustainable management. Annual precipitation varies several-fold from the eastern Patagonian steppes to the North Patagonian Icefield. The westernmost sub-basins are strongly governed by glacier melt with a peak discharge in the austral summer (January–March). The easternmost sub-basins have a much more seasonal response governed by quicker snowmelt in spring (November–December), while they exhibit low flows typical for semi-arid regions during summer and autumn. Topography, vegetation and wetlands may also influence streamflow. The strong spatio-temporal gradients and variability highlight the need for further monitoring, particularly in the headwaters, especially given the severe changes these basins are expected to undergo. The great diversity of hydrological controls and climate change pose significant challenges for hydrological prediction and management. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Dussaillant, J.A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F. 2012. Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1530–1542. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Small dams represent an important local-scale resource designed to increase water supply reliability in many parts of the world where hydrological variability is high. There is evidence that the number of farm dams has increased substantially over the last few decades. These developments can have a substantial impact on downstream flow volumes and patterns, water use and ecological functioning. The study reports on the application of a hydrological modelling approach to investigate the uncertainty associated with simulating the impacts of farm dams in several South African catchments. The focus of the study is on sensitivity analysis and the limitations of the data that would be typically available for water resources assessments. The uncertainty mainly arises from the methods and information that are available to estimate the dam properties and the water use from the dams. The impacts are not only related to the number and size of dams, but also the extent to which they are used for water supply as well as the nature of the climate and the natural hydrological regimes. The biggest source of uncertainty in South Africa appears to be associated with a lack of reliable information on volumes and patterns of water abstraction from the dams. Citation Hughes, D. A. & Mantel, S. K. (2010) Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 578–592. 相似文献
6.
Denis Duda Costa Cintia B. Uvo Adriano Rolim Da Paz Frede De Oliveira Carvalho Carlos R. Fragoso Jr 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1636-1652
ABSTRACTThe high variability in the hydrological regime of the Eastern Hydrological Region (EHR) of Northeast Brazil often results in floods and droughts, leading to serious socio-economic issues. Therefore, this work aimed to investigate connections between spatiotemporal hydrological variability of the EHR and large-scale climate phenomena. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to relate climate indices with hydrological variables within two representative river basins in the EHR. The results indicated a multi-annual relationship between the state of the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and anomalous hydrological variability in the basins. In addition, the northern Tropical Atlantic conditions were shown to play an important role in modulating the long-term variability of the hydrological response of the basins, whilst only extreme ENSO anomalies seemed to affect the rainy season. This knowledge is an important step towards long-term prediction of hydrological conditions and contributes to the improvement of water resources planning and management in the EHR. 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACT Based on a future temperature increase of 0.5°C and precipitation decrease of 25%, the climate elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes in 12 Andean watersheds of the Coquimbo Region, north-central Chile, was assessed. Also, the possible relationships between this elasticity and specific physiographic characteristics of the watersheds (area, average elevation, slope distribution, terrain roughness, slope orientation, vegetation cover) were studied. Climate elasticity of streamflow ranged between 0 and 2.8. Watersheds presenting higher elevations, with a fairly well-balanced distribution of slope exposure tend to exhibit lower elasticity, which could be explained by the contribution of snowfall to the hydrological regime, more significant in those watersheds. Results should be considered when downscaling climate model projections at the basin scale in mountain settings. Finally, uncertainties in the approach, given by factors such as streamflow seasonality, data availability and representativeness and watershed characteristics, and therefore the scope of the results, are discussed. 相似文献
8.
AbstractThe impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. ZhangCitation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108. 相似文献
9.
Cui Tong Yang Tao Xu Chong-Yu Shao Quanxi Wang Xiaoyan Li Zhenya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1849-1866
The source region of Yellow river is an alpine river sensitive to climate changes, but the potential effects of climate change on hydrological regime characteristics and ecological implications are less understood. This study aims to assess the response of the alterations in the flow regimes over the source region of Yellow river to climate change using Soil and Water Integrated Model driven by different Global Circulation Models (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indicators of hydrological alteration and River impact index are employed to evaluate streamflow regime alterations at multiple temporal scales. Results show that the magnitude of monthly and annual streamflow except May, the magnitude and duration of the annual extreme, and the number of reversals are projected to increase in the near future period (2020–2049) and far future period (2070–2099) compared to the baseline period (1971–2000). The timing of annual maximum flows is expected to shift backwards. The source region of Yellow river is expected to undergo low change degree as per the scenarios RCP2.6 for both two future periods and under the scenarios RCP4.5 for the near future period, whereas high change degree under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far period on the daily scale. On the monthly scale, climate changes mainly have effects on river flow magnitude and timing. The basin would suffer an incipient impact alteration in the far period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while low impact in other scenarios. These changes in flow regimes could have several positive impacts on aquatic ecosystems in the near period but more detrimental effects in the far period.
相似文献10.
Abstract The effects of changes in climate on aquifer storage and groundwater flow to rivers have been investigated using an idealized representation of the aquifer/river system. The generalized aquifer/river model can incorporate spatial variability in aquifer transmissivity and is applied with parameters characteristic of Chalk and Triassic sandstone aquifers in the United Kingdom, and is also applicable to other aquifers elsewhere. The model is run using historical time series of recharge, estimated from observed rainfall and potential evaporation data, and with climate inputs perturbed according to a number of climate change scenarios. Simulations of baseflow suggest large proportional reductions at low flows from Chalk under high evaporation change scenarios. Simulated baseflow from the slower responding Triassic sandstone aquifer shows more uniform and less severe reductions. The change in hydrological regime is less extreme for the low evaporation change scenario, but remains significant for the Chalk aquifer. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACTLow streamflow conditions can have adverse consequences for society and river ecology. The variability and drivers of streamflow drought indicators within the USA were investigated using observed streamflow records from 603 gauges across the USA. The analysis was based on two main approaches: (i) low-flow magnitude indicators, and (ii) streamflow deficit indicators. First, we examined how streamflow drought indicators vary spatially across the USA. Second, we used a data-driven clustering method to identify spatial clusters for each indicator. Finally, we assessed the association with regional climate drivers. The results show that the spatial variability of low-flow magnitude indicators is significantly different from the deficit indicators. Further, our clustering approach identifies regions of spatial homogeneity, which can be linked to the extreme regional climate drivers and land–atmosphere interactions. The influence of regional climate on streamflow drought indicators varies more between clusters than between indicators. 相似文献
12.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):613-625
Abstract Estimates of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in 219 catchments across Australia are presented. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is defined here as the proportional change in mean annual streamflow divided by the proportional change in mean annual rainfall. The elasticity is therefore a simple estimate of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to changes in long-term rainfall, and is particularly useful as an initial estimate of climate change impact in land and water resources projects. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is estimated here using a hydrological modelling approach and a nonparametric estimator. The results indicate that the rainfall elasticity of streamflow (? P ) in Australia is about 2.0–3.5 (observed in about 70% of the catchments), that is, a 1% change in mean annual rainfall results in a 2.0–3.5% change in mean annual streamflow. The rainfall elasticity of streamflow is strongly correlated to runoff coefficient and mean annual rainfall and streamflow, where streamflow is more sensitive to rainfall in drier catchments, and those with low runoff coefficients. There is a clear relation-ship between the ? P values estimated using the hydrological modelling approach and those estimated using the nonparametric estimator for the 219 catchments, although the values estimated by the hydrological modelling approach are, on average, slightly higher. The modelling approach is useful where a detailed study is required and where there are sufficient data to reliably develop and calibrate a hydrological model. The nonparametric estimator is useful where consistent estimates of the sensitivity of long-term streamflow to climate are required, because it is simple to use and estimates the elasticity directly from the historical data. The nonparametric method, being model independent, can also be easily applied in comparative studies to data sets from many catchments across large regions. 相似文献
13.
T. Estrela 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1154-1167
Abstract Impacts on water resources produced by climate change can be exacerbated when occurring in regions already presenting low water resources levels and frequent droughts, and subject to imbalances between water demands and available resources. Within Europe, according to existing climate change scenarios, water resources will be severely affected in Spain. However, the detection of those effects is not simple, because the natural variability of the water cycle and the effects of water abstractions on flow discharges complicate the establishment of clear trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models. This paper reviews water resources and their variability in Spain, the recent modelling studies on hydrological effects of climate change, expected impacts on water resources, the implications in river basins and the current policy actions. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Estrela, T., Pérez-Martin, M.A., and Vargas, E., 2012. Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1154–1167. 相似文献
14.
Wildfires are common in Australia and can cause vegetation loss and affect hydrological processes such as interception, evapotranspiration, soil water storage and streamflow. This study investigates wildfire impacts on catchment mean annual streamflow for 14 Australian catchments that have been severely impacted by the 2009 Victoria wildfire, the second-worst wildfire disaster in Australia. A statistical approach based on sensitivity coefficients was used for quantifying the climate variability impacts on streamflow and the time trend analysis method was used to estimate the annual streamflow changes due to wildfire respectively. Our results show that wildfire has caused a noticeable increase in mean annual streamflow in the catchments with a burnt area above 70% for an immediate post-wildfire period (2009–2015) and the wildfire impact on streamflow is evidently larger than the climate change impact in the majority of burnt catchments. Furthermore, the wildfire impact on mean annual streamflow strongly increases with the burnt percentage area, indicated by R2 = 0.73 between the two. The results also illustrate that catchments with high burnt percentage areas can have more potential to gain increased streamflow due to wildfires compared with that due to climate variability and can have significant streamflow change after wildfires above the 70% threshold of burnt area. These results provide evidence for evaluating large-scale wildfire impact on streamflow at small to medium-sized catchments, and guidance for process-based hydrological models for simulating wildfire impacts on hydrological processes for the immediate period after the wildfire. 相似文献
15.
Andrea Blahušiaková Milada Matoušková Michal Jenicek Ondřej Ledvinka Zdeněk Kliment Jana Podolinská 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(12):2083-2096
ABSTRACT This study investigates changes in seasonal runoff and low flows related to changes in snow and climate variables in mountainous catchments in Central Europe. The period 1966–2012 was used to assess trends in climate and streamflow characteristics using a modified Mann–Kendall test. Droughts were classified into nine classes according to key snow and climate drivers. The results showed an increase in air temperature, decrease in snowfall fraction and snow depth, and changes in precipitation. This resulted in increased winter runoff and decreased late spring runoff due to earlier snowmelt, especially at elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. Most of the hydrological droughts were connected to either low air temperatures and precipitation during winter or high winter air temperatures which caused below-average snow storages. Our findings show that, besides precipitation and air temperature, snow plays an important role in summer streamflow and drought occurrence in selected mountainous catchments. 相似文献
16.
K. Y. Raneesh 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):946-965
Abstract Climate change is recognized to be one of the most serious challenges facing mankind today. Driven by anthropogenic activities, it is known to be a direct threat to our food and water supplies and an indirect threat to world security. Increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will certainly affect hydrological regimes. The consequent global warming is expected to have major implications on water resources management. The objective of this research is to present a general approach for evaluating the impacts of potential climate change on streamflow in a river basin in the humid tropical zone of India. Large-scale global climate models (GCMs) are the best available tools to provide estimates of the effect of rising greenhouse gases on rainfall and temperature. However the spatial resolution of these models (250 km?×?250 km) is not compatible with that of watershed hydrological models. Hence the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled using regional climate models (RCMs), so as to project the output of a GCM to a finer resolution (50 km?×?50 km). In the present work, the projections of a GCM for two scenarios, A2 and B2 are downscaled by a RCM to project future climate in a watershed. Projections for two important climate variables, viz. rainfall and temperature are made. These are then used as inputs for a physically-based hydrological model, SWAT, in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on streamflow and vegetative growth in a humid tropical watershed. Citation Raneesh, K. Y. & Santosh, G. T. (2011) A study on the impact of climate change on streamflow at the watershed scale in the humid tropics. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 946–965. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of the flow regime alterations in the middle reach of the Yangtze River associated with dam construction: potential ecological implications 
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下载免费PDF全文 Hydrological regimes strongly influence the biotic diversity of river ecosystems by structuring physical habitat within river channels and on floodplains. Modification of hydrological regimes by dam construction can have important consequences for river ecosystems. This study examines the impacts of the construction of two dams, the Gezhouba Dam and the Three Gorges Dam, on the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River in China. Analysis of hydrological change before and after dam construction is investigated by evaluating changes in the medians and ranges of variability of 33 hydrological parameters. Results show that the hydrological impact of the Gezhouba Dam is relatively small, affecting mainly the medians and variability of low flows, the rate of rise, and the number of hydrological reversals. The closure of the Three Gorges Dam has substantially altered the downstream flow regime, affecting the seasonal distribution of flows, the variability of flows, the magnitude of minimum flows, low‐flow pulses, the rate of rise, and hydrological reversals. These changes in flow regime have greatly influenced the aquatic biodiversity and fish community structure within the Yangtze River. In particular, populations of migratory fish have been negatively impacted. The results help to identify the magnitudes of hydrological alteration associated with the construction of dams on this important large river and also provide useful information to guide strategies aimed at restoration of the river's ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
ABSTRACTThis study investigated the impacts of human activities, especially water resources development, and climate variation on the runoff reduction and its spatial variability in the Huaihe Basin, the sixth largest river basin in China, which is also an important agricultural area in Eastern China. The annual runoff had statistically negative trends at all hydrological stations located on the main river and the major tributaries, which ranges from ?0.13 to ?1.99 mm year-1. The Budyko-based approach was employed to quantitatively differentiate the runoff reduction driven by human activities and climate variation. Results showed that the precipitation decrease contributed to the runoff reduction in all study sub-catchments. However, significant reductions of the annual runoff in some sub-catchments were mainly caused by the human activities rather than the precipitation decrease. Spatial variability of hydrological changes were closely related to different types of human activities especially irrigation and water diversion. In the southern sub-catchments, water diversion played a significant role in runoff reduction, while agriculture irrigation was the relatively dominant driving factor in the northern sub-catchments. The results show the complexity in the catchment hydrological response to the changes in climate forcing and human water resources development and the effectiveness of the Budyko-based approach for attribution analysis.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Cudennec 相似文献
19.
Impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in a sediment concentrated region in the Middle Yellow River 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Kang Liang Changming Liu Xiaomang Liu Xianfang Song 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(7):1741-1749
The Kuye River is the primary tributary located in the sediment concentrated regions in the Middle Yellow River in China. Significant decrease in streamflow has been observed in the Kuye River. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the change in annual streamflow for the period of 1960 to 2006. Mean annual streamflow in the Kuye River was 84.9 mm from 1960 to 1979 (period I), while it decreased to 58.2 mm from 1980 to 1998 (period II) and 20.5 mm from 1999 to 2006 (period III), respectively. The climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method were individually employed to assess the impact of climate variability and human activities on the decrease in streamflow. The results showed that climate variability was responsible for 29.6 and 27.1 % of the streamflow decrease from the climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method, respectively; while human activities accounted for 70.4 and 72.9 % of the streamflow decrease in period II. In period III, climate variability contributed 40.9 and 39.3 % of the streamflow decrease from the climate elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method, respectively; while human activities accounted for 59.1 and 60.7 % of the streamflow decrease. Therefore, human activities were the main reason of the streamflow decrease. Soil conservation measures (planting trees, improving pastures, building terraces and sediment-trapping dams) and coal mining led to the streamflow reduction in the Kuye River. 相似文献
20.
ABSTRACTClimate change/variability accompanied by anthropogenic activities can alter the runoff response of landscapes. In this study we investigate the integrated impacts of precipitation change/variability and landscape changes, specifically wetland drainage practices, on streamflow regimes in wetland-dominated landscapes in the Assiniboine and Saskatchewan River basins of the North American Prairies. Precipitation and streamflow metrics were examined for gradual (trend type) and abrupt (shift type) changes using the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and a Bayesian change point detection methodology. Results of statistical analyses indicate that precipitation metrics did not experience statistically significant increasing or decreasing changes and there was no statistical evidence of streamflow regime change over the study area except for one of the smaller watersheds. The absence of widespread streamflow and precipitation changes suggests that wetland drainage did not lead to detectable changes in streamflow metrics over most of the Canadian portion of the Prairies between 1967 and 2007.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor None assigned 相似文献